George Marshall Institute Washington Roundtable on Science and Public Policy (to be given on 11 October 2006 at Noon)

Transcription

1 George Marshall Institute Washington Roundtable on Science and Public Policy (to be given on 11 October 2006 at Noon) William M. Gray Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523

2 TOPICS 2006 Hurricane Season Hurricanes and Global Warming Past and Future Global Temperature Change Failure of Global Models Exaggeration of Human Influences Recommendations

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5 Full Season Tropical Cyclone Parameters and their Climatology (in parentheses) Full Season Adjusted 3 August 06 Forecast Full Season Adjusted 1 Sept 06 Forecast Observed Activity Through September Updated Oct-Nov Forecast Full Season Adjusted 3 October 06 Forecast Named Storms (NS) (9.6) Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) Hurricanes (H) (5.9) Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0) Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)

6 Mid-July 2006 Late-Sept 2006

7 New Landfalling Hurricane Web Application Currently Available at the following URL: In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory Bridgewater State College, Bridgewater MA

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9 Global ACE SST y = -9.85x Tropical SST Anomaly ( C

10 US Landfalling tropical cyclones by intensity during two 50-year periods YEARS Named Storms Hurricanes Intense Hurricanes (Cat 3-4-5) 3 Global Temperature Increase (50 years) (50 years) o C

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12 Annual Number of 6 Hour Periods for Cat Hurricanes in the Atlantic

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16 TRACKS OF CATEGORY HURRICANES

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18 1.5 PROXIE TO ATLANTIC THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION SSTA (50 o -60 o N, 60 o W-10 OR o W) minus AMO SLPA (0 o -50 o N, 70 o W-10 o W) (SSTA) minus (SLPA) Yearly Average

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21 extrapolated

22 September 14, 1975 Reported that The current global cooling may mark the return to another ice age.

23 April 28, 1975 In an article titled The Cooling World said that meteorologists are almost unanimous that catastrophic famines might result from global cooling.

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27 COOLING THC - Strong COOLING WARMING COOLING WARMING

28 PREDICTION The last 30-year global warming trend will come to an end in the next years. The global mean temperature 20 years from now will be lower than it is now.

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31 OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION LATENT HEAT FLUX ABSORBED SOLAR RADIATION NET ENERGY BALANCE THERMAL INERTIA SENSIBLE HEAT AND POTENTIAL ENERGY FLUX SUBSURFACE HEAT STORAGE OCEAN HEAT FLUX TEMPERATURE Flow diagram for climate modeling, showing feedback loops. From Robock (1985).

32 GLOBAL DIMMING CHANGES THERMO- HALINE CIRCULATION GREENLAND ICE SHEET ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET OCEAN & ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATIONS (ANNULAR MODES, GYRES, ENSO) GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE AND RAIN DISTRIBUTION GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL METHANE HYDRATES IN PERMAFROST AND OCEANS EXTREME EVENTS - INCLUDING FLOODS, DROUGHT, FIRE, HURRICANES & STORM SURGES BIOMASS FEEDBACKS PERMAFROST MELTING From A. Berrie Pittock (22 August 2006, EOS Article) Are Scientists Understanding Climate Change?

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34 The Ascendancy of the Religion of Numerical Modeling and the loss of Meteorological Judgment and Reality.

35 ORACLE AT DELPHI Climate Model Department GOD We prostrate ourselves before our all knowing GOD. We humbly accept your GLOBAL WARMING judgement.

36 ORACLE AT DELPHI Climate Model Department GCM Computer GOD i.e. - GOD We prostrate ourselves before our all knowing GOD. We humbly accept your GLOBAL WARMING judgement.

37 GCMers DIFFICULTIES IN MODELING THE OCEAN

38 GCMers DIFFICULTIES WITH WATER VAPOR FEEDBACK

39 GCMers We are causing warming TOTAL DIRT UNDER RUG

40 Some researchers argue that even with these caveats the report overstates the case. Says Richard Lindzen, an atmospheric scientist at M.I.T.: The margin of error in these models is a factor of 10 or more larger than the effect you re looking for. Even if Lindzen is wrong and the IPCC report is right, there might not be much anyone could do.

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42 Public Reality Reality Barrier Funding Publication R R R R R R R Downward

43 WHO AM I TO COMMENT? BACKGROUND EXPERIENCE IN TROPICS (MOIST PROCESSES) SEASONAL FORECASTING PERSONAL SITUATION

44 BACKGROUND (290) 15%.58 w/m 2 CO 2 -ppm

45 WATER VAPOR & CIRRUS GLOBAL MODELS REALITY 2 1 CO 2 SUPPRESSION OF OLR

46 ENERGY INVOLVED (Watts/m 2 ) CO 2 CO 2 (double) ATMOS. CONDENSATION 4.2 ATM. EVAP SFC EVAP & RAINFALL

47 Let s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus --- Michael Crichton (2003)

48 Northern Hemisphere SUMMER Areas of Rain Extra Areas of Rain

49 Drying Drying Vapor Flux Vapor Flux EQ. EQ. Vapor Flux Vapor Flux Drying Vapor Flux Vapor Flux Drying Drying

50 SINKING DRYING SINKING DRYING ITCZ EQ. EQ. SINKING SINKING DRYING

51 Incident Solar 340 Wm -2 CLIMATE SYSTEM Absorbed Solar 240 Wm -2 Reflected Solar 100 Wm -2 Net 0 Emitted Infrared 240 Wm -2

52 NORMAL CONVECTION 235 OLR INCREASED CONVECTION 237 OLR

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57 HANSON (2 X CO 2 1 X CO 2 ) Pressure (hpa) Δq Pressure (hpa) ΔRH Change in specific humidity (%) Change in relative humidity (%)

58 GCM 300 Pressure (mb) Observation Correlation Coefficient SUN & HELD 1996

59 World Climate History According to IPCC in World Climate History after AD1,000 according to ground borehole evidence. Source: Huang et al. (1998) IPCC (III)

60 Michael Crichton (2004) Comment on human-induced global warming Now we are engaged in a great new theory, that once again has drawn the support of politicians, scientists, and celebrities around the world. Once again, the theory is promoted by major foundations. Once again, the research is carried out at prestigious universities. Once again, legislation is passed and social programs are urged in its name. Once again, critics are few and harshly dealt with. Once again, the measures being urged have little basis in fact or science. Once again, groups with other agendas are hiding behind a movement that appears high minded. Once again, claims of moral superiority are used to justify extreme actions. Once again, the fact that some people are hurt is shrugged off because an abstract cause is said to be greater than any human consequences. Once again, vague terms like sustainability and generational justice terms that have no agreed definition are employed in the service of a new crisis.

61 RECOMMENDATION IT IS UNWISE TO FORCE A REDUCTION IN GLOBAL FOSSIL-FUEL FUEL PRODUCTION AND A WEAKENING OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME BASED ON WHAT WE KNOW NOW.