Advanced Research WRF High Resolution Simulations of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma (2005)
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1 Advanced Research WRF High Resolution Simulations of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma (2005) Kristen L. Corbosiero, Wei Wang, Yongsheng Chen, Jimy Dudhia and Christopher Davis National Center for Atmospheric Research
2 The Advanced Hurricane WRF Run in real-time at NCAR since 2004 when a tropical cyclone (TC) threatened to make landfall within 3-5 days Two or three domains (12, 4, 1.33 km) with two-way moveable nests that follow the hurricane center Initialized from GFDL at 00 UTC and/or 12 UTC Kain-Fritsch cumulus (12 km only), WSM3 microphysics, YSU PBL scheme, drag (Donelan) and surface enthalpy coefficients (Carlson-Boland) for TCs Available on the web at
3 2005 performance Seven tropical cyclone forecast systems AHW4 WRF 4 km OFCL National Hurricane Center official GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory FSSE Florida State Super Ensemble Davis et al. (2007)
4 Hurricane Rita 03 UTC 24 September 39 hr forecast cm Column maximum reflectivity 4 km Precipitable water
5 Hurricane Wilma 4 km Precipitable water cm 22 UTC 20 October 22 hr forecast 05 UTC 24 October 77 hr forecast
6 Hurricane Katrina Precipitable water 12 km 21 UTC 8/ km 00 UTC 8/29 4 km 03 UTC 8/29 cm
7 Corbosiero et al. (2006) Kossin & Schubert (2004) Lewis & Hawkins (1982) Reasor et al. (2000)
8 Katrina Radar Reflectivity 20 UTC 28 August Top: WRF 4 km(left), 1.33 km(right) Right: ELDORA radar RAINEX JOSS Field Catalog
9 HRD/AOML/NOAA
10 Katrina Wind speed m/s Left: Dual Doppler UTC 28 August Right: WRF 1.33 km 18 UTC Top: 700 hpa Bottom: 900 hpa HRD/AOML/NOAA
11 Rita Wind speed m/s Left: Dual Doppler UTC 23 September Right: WRF 4 km 01 UTC 24 September Top: 700 hpa Bottom: 900 hpa HRD/AOML/NOAA
12 Relative Vorticity (x10-4 s -1 ) Katrina Observations Katrina WRF 1.33km Rita WRF 4km Radius (km) Both the real and WRF vorticity profiles exhibit sharp gradients of vorticity and changes in the sign of ζ/ r. Such profiles satisfy the necessary condition for barotropic instability.
13 Schubert et al. (1999)
14 Katrina 1.33 km WRF 900 hpa wind speed m/s 900 hpa relative vorticity x 10-4 s -1
15 1/e-folding time Most unstable wave frequency (s -1 ) 1.4e-4 1.2e-4 1.0e-4 8.0e-5 6.0e-5 4.0e-5 2.0e Katrina Observations Katrina WRF 1.33km Rita WRF 4 km Linear stability analysis Wavenumber The 1.33 km WRF simulation is most unstable to wavenumber 2, with significant wavenumber 1-4 instability. The 4 km WRF simulation is most unstable to wavenumbers 1 and 2, with very little instability at higher wavenumbers. Code provided by M. Montgomery and M. Bell
16 Questions and Unresolved Issues Are model numerics and parameterizations playing a role in the abundance of triangular eyewalls? Do tropical cyclones pose a unique problem to WRF with their circular geometry and strong diabatic heatingvorticity generation feedback? Will 1.33 km WRF TCs always be too weak due to an abundance of eyewall asymmetries? What is the resolution dependence of these eyewall structures?
17 The eyewall is predominantly circular or elliptical, with transient higher wavenumber structures. Vertical motion (warm up, cool down) 185 m resolution Idealized WRF hurricane simulation
18 Future Work Add another nest to the 1.33 km Katrina run to test resolution dependence Decompose the WRF output into its various wavenumber components and compare with observations Analyze the results of the 2007 hurricane season WRF 1.33 km runs We re not alone! WRF 2km Wilma GFS initialization Brian Etherton UNC Charlotte
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