9/56 YEAR CYCLE: HURRICANES

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "9/56 YEAR CYCLE: HURRICANES"

Antony Burke
5 years ago
Views:

1 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no., June, 20 / YEAR CYCLE: HURRICANES David McMINN Independent cycle researcher Mcminn@yahoo.com Twin Palms, Blue Knob, NSW 280, Australia Abstract: The timing of major hurricanes in the Atlantic and the East Pacific was assessed in relation to the / year cycle. These important weather events tended to cluster within certain sections of the / year grid, far more than could be expected by chance. This was both unexpected and significant. The raw data for the Atlantic was broken down into two eras and -200, while the era was assessed for the North East Pacific. Hurricane events could be correlated with the / year grid for all three periods. This hurricane cycle was hypothesised to arise from Moon-Sun tidal effects, about which very little is known. What seemed most important were the ecliptical positions of the Moon, the Sun, the lunar ascending node and apogee. This implied that the angles between these factors and the spring equinox point may offer clues as to how the / year hurricane effect actually functions. The sunspot cycle strongly influences weather activity and hurricane formation. How the sunspot cycle is interrelated with the / year hurricane cycle remained completely unknown. Key words: / year, cycle, hurricane, Atlantic, Pacific, Moon, Sun, sunspots Introduction A / year cycle has been established in patterns of US and Western European financial crises (Funk, ; McMinn, 18, 1 & 1), as well as Californian earthquakes (McMinn, 20). This paper examines the prospect of a / year cycle in the timing of hurricanes in both the Atlantic and the East Pacific. The raw hurricane data was sourced from UNISYS, which formed the basis of the assessment. Three periods were examined and -200 for the Atlantic, as well as for the East Pacific. What is the / year cycle? It consists of a grid with intervals of years horizontally and years vertically, in which hurricanes tended to cluster into certain sectors. The year intervals were called subcycles and the year intervals sequences. The / year effect was hypothesised to arise directly from Moon-Sun tidal effects. Studies supporting a link between lunar phase and hurricane formation were undertaken from the mid-20 th century onwards (Yaukey, 200). Unfortunately, very little is known how Moon-Sun cycles function in relation to the timing of extreme weather events, thus limiting the potential for accurate forecasting. Please read McMinn (Appendices &, 20) for essential background information on the relevant lunisolar cycles and the various terms used in this paper. The plane of the Earth s orbit around the Sun is represented by the 0 degree ecliptical circle, with 00 E being sited at the spring equinox point. The abbreviation E was used to denote longitudinal degrees on the ecliptic and was equivalent to the angle made to the spring equinox point. The year sequences have been numbered in accordance with McMinn (1), with 18, 187, and 18 being designated Sequence 01; 1818, 187, 10 and 18 as Sequence 02, and so forth. McMinn (Appendix 2, 2002) presented the full numbering. Atlantic hurricanes 181 to 8. The complete / year grid in Table 1 was divided into four quarter segments of 1 year sequences each. These quarter sectors have been labelled Grids A, B, C & D. Importantly, Grid D contained of the total 27 Category & events (significant p <.0). Grids B & D were combined to give 20 hurricanes out of a total 27 (significant p <.01). The years in these two grids always had the lunar ascending node (as on July 1) sited between 0 and 1 E, as well as between 2 and 2 E with no exceptions. These two 0 degree segments for the ascending node were 180 degrees opposite in the ecliptical circle.

2 Grid A 2 0 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no., June, 20 Table 1 THE COMPLETE / YEAR CYCLE: ATLANTIC HURRICANES Categories & Grid B Grid C Grid D Years in bold contained at least one Category or hurricane. These years experienced more than one major hurricane. Source of Raw Data: UNISYS Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking By Year. to 200. The complete / year grid was again divided into four quarter sectors, each of 1 year sequences (see Appendix 2) and then assessed in relation to Category & Atlantic hurricanes. This produced a very similar pattern as presented in Table 1, with only a slight variation (ie: Grids A, B, C & D in Table 1 very closely corresponded to Grids E, F, G & H respectively in Appendix 2). Amazingly, Grid E Appendix 2 contained 1 Category events of a total 0 (significant p <.001). Additionally, Grid G experienced 1 Category hurricanes, compared with a total figure of 78 (significant p <.01). Strangely, Category hurricanes were most likely to happen in Grid E, whereas Category were most likely in Grid G. Some Categories & weather extremes appeared in Grids E & G (significant p <.01). During 181-8, Category & hurricanes recorded the lowest frequency in Grids A & C in Table 1. These grids very closely corresponded to Grids E & G respectively in Appendix 2, which contained the maximum frequency of Category & hurricanes for the 200 era. Why there was a major shift in hurricane patterns around the late 0 s remains completely unknown. (NB: 1 of the 1 year sequences in Grid A also showed up in Grid E, with the same situation applying to Grid C and Grid G.) Years in Grids E & G in Appendix 2 always took place with the ascending node (as on July 1) sited between 1 and 21 E, as well as between 2 and 0 E. East Pacific Hurricanes UNISYS presented raw data on east Pacific hurricanes for the post 1 era, which was assessed for the possibility of a / year effect (see Appendix ). Most notably, 0 major Categories &

3 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no., June, 20 hurricanes occurred in Grid K of a total (significant p <.01). Discussion Moon-Sun cycles are hypothesized to activate the / year cycle in the timing of major hurricanes over the past years. There are very close alignments of several Moon-Sun eclipse cycles at.0 and.0 solar years. This has been fully covered by McMinn (20) and thus will not be discussed here. Any event grouping within one sector of the / year cycle will always have the lunar ascending node located in two segments approximately 180 degrees apart on the ecliptical circle WITH NO EXCEPTIONS. The apogee point will also be sited in three segments of the ecliptic 0 degrees apart WITH NO EXCEPTIONS (Appendices &, McMinn, 20). This was a property of the / year grid generally. Both the ascending node and the apogee point can be closely linked to Moon-Sun tidal effects on the Earth s surface. This work stresses the importance of studying cycles generally and looking at possible links between cycles established for various phenomena. The / year cycle was first deduced from financial trends, then earthquakes and now hurricanes. It would be very unlikely that a / year cycle would have ever have been determined in seismic or hurricane activity without the input from market studies. A key question must be asked whether the lunisolar cycles can be correlated with the landfall of hurricanes. The crossing onto land is probably the most important event possible in the life of a hurricane and it definitely has a major impact on humans. Although very speculative, it would still make an interesting study to test the validity of this hypothesis. Virtually nothing is known about how the / year Moon-Sun effect actually functions, a situation that can only be rectified by further advances in research. According to Yaukey (200), Atlantic best-track observations from displayed a pronounced peak of both hurricane occurrence and mean cyclone wind speed half way between the new and full moon. Additionally, the rapid intensification of hurricane development was concentrated around the new moon, with a lesser concentration around the full moon. Such approaches are very useful, but only consider one lunisolar factor in relation to severe weather events. A superior methodology would be to appraise several Moon-Sun influences simultaneously the Moon, the Sun, the ascending node, apogee point, the spring equinox point and the rising point. This could be highly relevant to the timing of extreme weather events. There has been a general increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricane activity in North America over the past century, presumably due to global warming. Until, no Category hurricanes were recorded in the Atlantic (based on UNISYS data), although 8 were experienced during the 2000's. Sunspot cycles have long been appreciated as influencing terrestrial weather cycles. Most recently, Hodges and Elsner (20) showed that the probability of three or more hurricanes hitting the US coast increases markedly during the lows of the year solar cycle. Years with few sunspots and above-normal ocean temperatures experience greater atmospheric instability and thus more hurricanes. Low solar activity means that the upper atmosphere remains cooler thereby creating a major temperature differential above tropical storms that helps energize these storms into hurricanes. According to the researchers, the likelihood of three or more hurricanes hitting the US coast rises from 20% to 0% in years when sunspot activity is in the lowest 2%, compared with years in the highest 2%. During peak sunspot years, there is only a 2% chance of one or more hurricanes hitting the USA, a figure that spikes to % in the lowest sunspot years. Clearly, there must be some link between the hurricane frequency as determined by sunspot activity and that determined by the / year Moon-Sun cycle. The answer to this problem lies well outside prevailing paradigms in meteorology. Conclusions Three time frames were assessed for Category & hurricanes (Atlantic Ocean), -200 (Atlantic Ocean) and (East Pacific). For the three eras, hurricanes occurred preferentially in quarter sectors of the complete / year grid. For the period, the minimum hurricane frequency occurred in Grids A & C (see Table 1). These very closely approximated to Grids E & G in Appendix 2,

4 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no., June, 20 7 which contained the maximum hurricane frequency for the to 200 era. The shift in hurricane cycles around the 0 s was presumably due to Moon-Sun tidal effects. Such behaviour was unusual and inexplicable. For the -200 period, Category hurricanes were most likely to happen in Grid E and Category hurricanes in Grid G (see Appendix 2). East Pacific hurricanes also produced significance, as they tended to occur preferentially in one quarter (Grid K) of the / year cycle (significant p <.01) (see Appendix ). A / year cycle was apparent in the frequency of hurricane formation. A few good correlates do not make a theory and further research is essential before a / year hurricane effect can be fully supported. This hurricane cycle most likely arises from Moon-Sun tidal effects as proposed by McMinn (20). The sunspot cycle also plays a key role in determining hurricane activity and thus it should have interrelationships with the / year Moon-Sun effect. Nothing much more can be stated, as it is a new research area about which very little is known. References Funk, J.M.. The year cycle in American business activity. Ottawa, IL. Hodges, R.E. and Elsner, J.B., 20. Evidence linking solar variability with US hurricanes. Journal of Climatology. July 1. DOI:.02/joc.21. McMinn, D., 18. The year cycles & financial crises. 1th Conference of Economists. Monash University. The Economic Society of Australia. 2-2 August. McMinn, D., 1. Financial crises & the Number. The Australian Technical Analyst Association Newsletter. p September. McMinn, D., 1. Financial crises & the year cycle. Twin Palms Publishing. p. McMinn, D., / Year Cycle: Financial Crises. McMinn, D., 200. Market timing by the Number. Twin Palms Publishing. 1p. McMinn, D., 20. / year cycle: Californian Earthquakes. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 8, p UNISYS. Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking By Year. UNISYS. East Pacific Tropical Storm Tracking By Year. Yaukey, P., 200. Hurricane rapid growth events & the lunar synodic cycle. Paper presented at Hurricanes III Climate Dynamics & Biotic Response. Association of American Geographers 200 Annual General Meeting. Las Vegas, Nevada. March. Appendix 1 ATLANTIC HURRICANES ATLANTIC HURRICANES: Categories & Year Active Rank Cat Year Active Rank Cat (a) (a) 18 Aug 0 Sep Aug 0 Aug Aug 1 Sep 1 Sep 20 Oct Sep 2 Oct 0 Aug Aug Sep 2 Oct Sep 20-Sep Aug 0 Aug 1 2 Sep 02 Sep 1 2 Sep 27 Oct Oct 20 Oct Oct 0 Oct 1 Oct 1 Oct Aug Aug 21 Jul Aug Sep 27 Oct 0 Sep 02 Sep 2 18 Oct Oct 20 Sep Sep 188 Sep 2 Oct 0 7 Oct 1 Oct 2 18 Aug 0 Sep 0 8 Sep 0 Sep 20 0 Aug 27 Sep 1 1 Aug 2 Sep 1 Oct 0 Oct 2 ATLANTIC HURRICANES: 200 Categories & Sep Oct 0 2 Aug 2 Sep 08

5 8 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no., June, Aug 1 Sep 2 Aug 2-Sep 1 Aug Aug Jul 1 Aug 1 Aug 0 Sep Sep -Sep 20 8 Oct 0 Nov Sep 1-Sep 20 1 Aug 1 Sep Sep 08-Sep 1 Oct 01 Oct Sep 1-Oct Aug 2 Sep Sep 08 Sep Sep Sep Sep 1-Sep 0 Oct 1 Oct Oct 18 -Oct 2 1 Aug 1 Aug Aug 0-Sep 1 Sep 7 1 Sep 0 Sep 1 7 Sep Aug 2 Aug 2 Sep 0-Sep 1 Sep Sep 20 Aug 1 Aug Oct 0 Oct 1 1 Aug 08-Aug 2 Sep 0 Sep 21 Aug 27-Sep 18 Sep 0 Sep 1 Oct 0 Oct Sep 27-Oct 0 Aug 1-Sep Aug 2 Aug 1 2 Sep 08-Sep 1 8 Sep 27 Oct 0 18 Sep 1-Oct 01 7 Aug Aug Aug 0 Sep Sep 08 Sep 1 Oct Nov Aug 18-Aug 2 Aug 1-Aug 1 Sep 07-Sep 1 Sep -Sep 2 Nov 1-Nov 2 Aug Aug 2 Sep 02 Sep 1 Oct 20 Oct Aug 28 Sep Sep 21-Oct 0 1 Oct 0 Oct 18 Sep 28-Oct 0 1 Aug 0 Aug 1 Sep 21 Sep Oct 0-Oct 0 Oct 2-Nov Oct 0 Nov Sep 21-Oct 0 Jun 2 Jun 2 Sep 02 Sep Aug 27-Sep 0 Sep 0-Sep Aug Aug Sep 21 Oct 0 Sep 2 Sep Aug 0-Aug 1 Aug 2-Sep Sep 02 Sep 2 1 Sep 20-Oct 02 8 Aug 2-Sep 1 Sep 1 Sep Sep 02-Sep 2 Sep 0 Sep 1 Sep -Sep 27 Oct 27 Nov 01 1 Sep 2-Oct Aug 20-Sep 0 Aug 28-Sep 1 Sep 1-Sep 2 Sep 28-Oct 0 Sep 1-Sep Jul 0-Jul 18 Jul Jul 21 Aug 2 Aug 1 Sep 18 Sep 2 Oct 1 Oct Aug 1 Aug 2 Aug 1 Sep Aug 2-Sep 0 Sep 01-Sep 1 Oct 1-Oct 21 Nov 0-Nov 1 1 Aug 27-Sep Aug 1 Aug Sep 21-Oct Sep 0 Sep 2 1 Aug 1 Aug 1 Sep 0 Sep 18 Aug 2-Sep Sep -Oct Aug 2 Sep Aug 0-Sep

6 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no., June, 20 Sep 1-Sep 20 8 (a) In a given year, the first hurricane of the season is numbered 1, the second 2, the third, the fourth and so forth. Source of Raw Data: UNISYS Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking By Year. Grid E 1 Grid F Grid G Grid H Appendix 2 THE COMPLETE / YEAR CYCLE: 200 ATLANTIC HURRICANES Categories &

7 1 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no., June, 20 Denotes a Category hurricane in a given year. Denotes a Category hurricane in a given year. Source of Raw Data: UNISYS Grid I Grid J 18 Grid K 1 Grid L Appendix THE COMPLETE / YEAR CYCLE: EAST PACIFIC HURRICANES Categories & Denotes a Category hurricane. Denotes a Category hurricane. Source of Raw Data: UNISYS

9/56 Year Cycle: Californian Earthquakes

MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive 9/56 Year Cycle: Californian Earthquakes David McMinn March 2011 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51663/ MPRA Paper No. 51663, posted 27. November 2013 06:07