Calories, Obesity and Health in OECD Countries

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Stella Lawrence
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1 Presented at: The Agricultural Economics Society's 81st Annual Conference, University of Reading, UK 2nd to 4th April 200 Calories, Obesity and Health in OECD Countries Mario Mazzocchi and W Bruce Traill University of Bologna,, Univ of Reading, Dept of Agric & Food Economics, Reading RG6 6AR wbtraill@readingacuk Abstract Theoretical models suggest that decisions about diet, weight and health status are endogenous within a utility maximisation framework In this paper, we model these behavioural relationships in a fixed-effect panel setting using a simultaneous equation system, with a view to determining whether economic variables can explain the trends in calorie consumption, obesity and health in OECD countries and the large differences among countries The empirical model shows that progress in medical treatment and health expenditure mitigates mortality from diet-related diseases, despite rising obesity rates While the model accounts for endogeneity and serial correlation, results are affected by data limitations Keywords: food consumption, obesity, overweight, health JEL classification: I12, C33 1

2 1 Introduction! "#$$%&&'( )*+%&&,- +!/0 123&122& 4&5 6%&58 * 1&59: '5 ;#1< B % ")*+%&&4- + ( 0" -( C */ ")*+%&&4- " %&&'- #60 2

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8 H 6 % # NO # # A&5"?:=+ ##%&&% '12 = 4%A%&&46&A- K =+ ## L?:9:#! L 6 6 (6 6 L #?:4A&& %1&&# 6 =+ ## 2 Food supply in the FAO Food Balance Sheets is defined as availability at the retail level It has been corrected for post-harvest and processing losses but still includes all forms of post-retail losses, notably household waste, retailing losses and pet food 8

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11 I6 (C/ / =0 =# C 8?9:" 9-9 )! *"6- C0C/ # %H ( CALit = µ it + γ1pricefit + γ 2INCit + γ 3FATit + γ 4SUGARit + γ 5FRVit + γ 6 AGE + uit OBESEit = δit + γ CALit + γ 8URBit + γ 9SMOKEit + vit DDIAit = λit + γ10obeseit + γ11satfit + γ12urbit + γ13hexpit + γ14t + wit DHEARTit = λit + γ15obeseit + γ16satfit + γ1 URB + γ 18 SMOKE + γ 19 HEXP + γ 20 t + z it it it it (5) ( (8/C(!"#$!% " ($",'-(#& "-("'( ()( 11

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20 !"#!$%&'( )* +, - "& ) / Australia c 21 i Austria 85 d 91 i Belgium 11 j Canada 143 Czech Republic 112 e 148 k Denmark 55 f 95 l Finland France k Germany 129 Greece 219 Hungary 188 Iceland 124 k Ireland 130 k Italy 5 g 85 k Japan Korea 32 j Luxembourg 184 Mexico 242 l Netherlands 51 a k New Zealand 111 c 209 Norway 83 k Poland 114 m Portugal 128 i Slovakia 224 k Spain 68 f 131 Sweden 55 c 9 Switzerland 54 h k Turkey 120 United Kingdom 130 d 230 United States 15 b 233 d 306 k 1 >E> ( 12Q3( 1232( 1221( 1224( 123Q( 122A 122%( 1222( H %&&1( %&&%( %&&&( 122, B+!/* 20

21 * & 1 )//2/// Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic 285 Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States /122Q % /122' 4 /%&&1 B+!/* 21

22 *$ 2)34/// Calories /cap/day Fat % of energy from Sugar % of energy from Fruit and Vegetable grams/cap/day Australia Austria Belgium/Luxembourg Canada Czech Republic na 311 na 335 na 126 na 389 Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Korea Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia na 2889 na 34 na 106 na 341 Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States B=+ ## 22

23 *1 & & 5 6- (!5 2&,1 4, '1 '' Q2 11 Q& > Q' 'A,' 2A! 3& '% 42 A3!$M '3 'Q 'Q QA / QA 1, 13 %4 =,4 %, 44 '2 = Q1 A4,3 3, 8,Q,, 4',' 8 4' 'Q,& 11% * '' 33 A, 3% Q&,3 %3 4' Q, Q& '& Q' 9 A, 2' 'A 2% : 13 42,& 3' 4&,2 31 3& 1A 43 Q2 '3 %% 3 41 '& C,&,A,3 24 C %Q 41,4 1&A M '3 'Q 'Q QA '1 A% 'Q 3, Q1 ' 41 %2 $,3 Q& 4A '3 # 4Q A',, 3'?: 32,, 4' 4'? 21,% A& A, 23

24 * Calories Obesity Diabetes Heart Disease PRICEF (-2319) INC 0143 (694) FAT 0011 (0349) SUGAR 0036 (2686) FRV (-048) AGE -004 (-1528) CAL 0196 (152) URB 2180 (1681) 2415 (1949) (-1419) SMOKE 0010 (0521) (-1552) OBESE 00 (1125) (-1191) SATF 000 (0543) (-094) HEXP (-5313) (-2462) TREND -011 (-0539) -132 (-3981) Sample Obs R AR(1) 0844 (38606) 0880 (3534) 004 (18268) 0885 (33855) DW (mean) Note: Student-t ratios between brackets Values significant at 005 sl are reported in bold, values significant at 010 sl in italics 24

25 *% 81 5 Dependent variable (log of fixed effects) Explanatory variable (logs) Calories Obesity Diabetes Heart disease Constant 665 (42401) (-3934) (-3008) (15550) Uncertainty Avoidance 009 (2081) Power Distance Masculinity Individualism -099 (-2940) 03 (3486) Adj R

26 !66$&9:% 8 Fixed Effect Estimates Country Calories Obesity Diabetes Ischaemic Heart Disease Australia 690 (256) -51 (546) -16 (496) 166 (423) Austria 05 (2613) -6 (503) -635 (458) 138 (386) Belgium 05 (2624) -866 (548) -54 (506) 148 (428) Canada 695 (253) -88 (526) -653 (481) 142 (40) Czech Republic 01 (2612) -1 (516) -1 (43) 161 (398) Denmark 696 (2588) -82 (535) -685 (491) 139 (414) Finland 691 (252) -53 (494) -64 (449) 140 (38) France 06 (2636) -806 (522) -04 (45) 1656 (402) Germany 03 (2620) -84 (539) -69 (493) 182 (41) Greece 13 (21) -83 (492) -03 (44) 166 (38) Hungary 12 (228) -29 (499) -626 (455) 180 (385) Ireland 08 (2680) -4 (490) -635 (444) 135 (3) Italy 08 (2656) -810 (505) -609 (461) 164 (389) Japan 681 (2604) -935 (503) -689 (458) 159 (38) Korea, Rep 690 (264) -98 (528) -586 (484) 163 (411) Mexico 01 (2803) -49 (51) -492 (44) 146 (401) Netherlands 694 (2566) -93 (502) -605 (454) 1681 (38) Norway 695 (262) -9 (534) -680 (490) 186 (415) New Zealand 695 (250) -815 (524) -06 (45) 132 (404) Poland 08 (292) -52 (495) -646 (450) 131 (381) Portugal 09 (219) -14 (482) -523 (431) 1632 (30) Slovak Republic 695 (2584) -04 (484) -605 (440) 195 (31) Spain 01 (2611) -95 (520) -666 (46) 1685 (402) Sweden 691 (2565) -832 (532) -13 (48) 154 (411) Switzerland 69 (2555) -851 (504) -62 (462) 105 (389) Turkey 1 (2948) -68 (503) -13 (455) 1651 (390) United Kingdom 698 (2604) -69 (539) -1 (495) 19 (418) United States 00 (25) -28 (526) -631 (480) 183 (408) Note: Student-t ratios between brackets 26

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came into force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation