9.1 Introduction to the probit and logit models
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1 EC3000 Ecoometrcs Lecture 9 Probt & Logt Aalss 9. Itroducto to the probt ad logt models 9. The logt model 9.3 The probt model Appedx 9. Itroducto to the probt ad logt models These models are used regressos where the depedet varable takes the value of a teger, where each value deotes a characterstc or choce. Examples of these tpes of regresso clude the choce of trasport (e.g. where f a car s chose, f a bus ad 3 f a tra, occupato (e.g. where for lawer, for plumber, ad so o, ad poltcal aalss (e.g. where deotes that voters thk low-flato s mportat ad 0 deotes otherwse. The approach take b Goldberger (964 s to assume a uderlg respose varable defed b the relato: β + u Fgure. Ths could be o a scale of - to + flato mportace. So somewwoe where equals 0 vews t as more mportat tha someoe whose value f -. I practce s uobservable. What we observe s a dumm varable where: f > 0 0 otherwse Fgure. That s f people thk flato s mportat we code ad are coded 0. The probablt that s gve b: >0 otherwse the Prob ( Prob( β + u > 0 Prob( u > β F( β Fgure.3 See Amema (975 ad Cox (970, amogst others. See Hudso (984
2 ( where F... s the cumulatve dstrbuto fucto [could be e..g. the cumulatve ormal dstrbuto] for. u -β x -β x The area to the left of -β x [F(-β x]deotes the probablt of 0 A large value for β x meas from Fgures. ad. that the dvdual should have. Ol f the error term s suffcetl egatve to outwegh ths.e. despte β x beg a large postve umber β x+ u s egatve wll 0. OK what s the probablt of the error term dog ths? It s the area uder the curve to the left of - β x. It makes sese. As β x creases to sa β x the ths area gets smaller. NOW f the the probablt of 0 s F(-β x the probablt of s - F(- β x. Hece the lkelhood fucto s (rememberg that there are ol two possble outcomes: or 0 : Fgure.4 L 0 F ( β [ ( F β ]
3 The frst product term relates ol to those terms where 0; the secof ol to the where. The fuctoal form of F (... Fgure.4 wll deped o the assumpto made about u Fgure.. If the cumulatve dstrbuto of u s the logstc we have the logt model, f t s stadard ormal dstrbuto we have the probt model. The attracto of the logt model s that t s relatvel smple to work wth ad gves a dstrbuto ear to that of the ormal. 9. The logt model Wth a logstc dstrbuto, the fuctoal form of F( β s: F ( β Fgure. THAT IS Probablt 0 ( β ( β + + ( β Calculate the above for a value of β x ad out pops a probablt. For wth β x 0.8 F(-β x 0.3. Ths s the probablt of the error term (wth mea zero beg less tha -β x. Ths meas that: F Fgure. THAT IS Probablt ( β + ( β ( β I the probt case we assume the u are IN ( 0, σ, meag: F ( β ( β σ ( π t dt Fgure.3 The cumulatve ormal ad the logt dstrbuto are ver close to each other, except at the tals, ad we are ot lkel to get ver dssmlar results where the samples are large. However, the estmates of β obtaed from those two estmato techques are ot strctl comparable. Amema (98 argued that the logt estmates be multpled b 0.65 to make them so. Example Loa applcato (from Maddala p.4 3
4 Back to the logt dstrbuto. I ths example f loa s accepted ad 0 f loa s rejected the usg.4,. ad.: Fgure.4 L + ( β ( β ( + ( β + ( β ( β Note we have collapsed the two product terms.4 to. But the frst.4 s rased to the power -. If 0 ths equal ad x x. If ths equals 0 ad x 0. Hece ths part of L, the lkelhood fucto, ol refers to those people for whom 0,.e. the dd ot get the loa. Smlarl the secod part of the resso s to the power ad thus ol relates to those for whom. Fgure.5 logl β where that t : β t log log [ + ( β ] [ + ( β ] Therefore, to maxmse the log lkelhood (ad therefore the lkelhood of the predcted value of beg equal to the observed oe, a set of β estmates have to be chose such that: logl S( β t β + ( β ( β 0 Fgure.6 These equatos are olear β. Hece, we have to use the Newto- Raphso method, or the scorg method, to solve the equatos. The formato matrx s: 4
5 ( β I log L E β β ( β [ + ( β ] Fgure.7 Iteratos proceed thus: β [ I( β ] S( β 0+ 0 β 0 Fgure.8 although practce both I ( β 0 ad ( S β 0 are dvded b. The terato s cotued wth utl covergece s acheved. Because the formato matrx s postve defte at each stage of the terato, covergece s guarateed. If the fal coverged estmate s kow as βˆ the the asmptotc covarace matrx s [ ( ] estmated b I β 0. That s we use the formato matrx as.7 evaluated at βˆ to calculate the varaces of the estmates. After estmatg β we ca get estmates of the probablt that the th observato s equal to : pˆ + ( β ( β Fgure.9 whch comes from Fgure.. The resso Fgure.6 shows that: Fgure.0 pˆ I other words, the predcted frequec s equal to the actual frequec. 9.3 The probt model Let us deote b φ (... ad (... Φ the dest fucto ad the cumulatve dest (dstrbuto fucto, respectvel, of the stadard ormal. The the lkelhood fucto correspodg to the top le Fgure.4 s: Fgure 3. L 0 [ Φ( β ] [ Φ( β ] 5
6 The log-lkelhood s: Fgure 3. logl logl ( logφ log Φ ( β + log[ Φ( β ] ( β + ( log[ Φ( β ] Ths s because -Φ( Φ(- as ca be see below - Φ( Φ( Dfferetatg ths wth respect to β we get: S ( β logl β ( Φ β φ ( [ ( ] ( β β Φ β Φ Fgure 3.3 The maxmum lkelhood estmator βˆml ca be obtaed as a soluto of the equatos S ( β 0. These are olear, thus the same teratve techque eeds to be emploed, where the formato matrx s: 6
7 ( β I log L E β β Φ [ φ( β ] ( β [ Φ( β ] Fgure 3.4 Useful refereces: Amema, 975. Amema & Nold, 975. A modfed logt model, The Revew of Ecoomcs ad statstcs Amema, 975. Qualtatve models, Aals of Ecoomc ad Socal Measuremet Amema, 98. Qualtatve respose models: a surve, Joural of Ecoomc Lterature Maddala, 983. Lmted-depedet ad qualtatve varables ecoometrcs Johsto & DNardo, 997. Ecoometrc Methods, McGraw Hll. 7
8 Appedx 8
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