Intelligent Systems I
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1 Intelligent Systems I 00 INTRODUCTION Stefan Harmeling & Philipp Hennig 24. October 2013 Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems Dptmt. of Empirical Inference
2 Which Card? Opening Experiment
3 Which Card? Opening Experiment 50% 66% something else don t know yet
4 Inference Reasoning under uncertainty Definition (Inference) An inference problem requires statements about the value of an unobserved (latent) variable x based on observations y which are related to x, but not sufficient to fully determine x. This requires a notion of uncertainty.
5 Inference in real life source: wikipedia
6 Inference in real life Luke Fildes, 1891
7 Inference in real life Den Haag, 2006
8 Inference in real life CERN, 1997
9 Inference & Intelligence Reasoning under uncertainty Intelligence [ Mainstream Science on Intelligence, WSJ, 13 Dec. 1994] A very general mental capability that, among other things, involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly and learn from experience Definition (Intelligence, for our purposes) An intelligent system is an artifact that collects information about the world discovers (infers) a structured model of the world acts to influence the world
10 Inference & Intelligence Reasoning under uncertainty Intelligence [ Mainstream Science on Intelligence, WSJ, 13 Dec. 1994] A very general mental capability that, among other things, involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly and learn from experience Definition (Intelligence, for our purposes) An intelligent system is an artifact that collects information about the world discovers (infers) a structured model of the world acts to influence the world last semester this course next semester
11 How intelligent are we? humans are not always good in inference tasks We need a mathematical description of inference!
12 Probability Theory The logic of uncertainty p(x = x): probability for X = x. short: p(x) product rule (definition conditional probability) p(x, y) = p(x)p(y x) = p(y)p(x y) sum rule Y = y 1,..., y n, X = x 1,..., x m p(x) = p(x, y 1 ) + + p(x, y n ) = p(x, y i ) Corollary: Bayes theorem i=1,...,n p(x i y) = p(x i)p(y x i ) j p(y x j)p(x j ) posterior = prior likelihood evidence in words: The probability for hypothesis x i is the probability for the observed data y under x i, compared to that probability under all hypotheses.
13 Bayes theorem in action p(c 1 ) = 1 /3 p(c 2 ) = 1 /3 p(c 3 ) = 1 /3 p(w c 1 ) = 0 p(r c 1 ) = 1 p(w c 2 ) = 1 /2 p(r c 2 ) = 1 /2 p(w c 3 ) = 1 p(r c 3 ) = 0 c 1 c 2 c 3
14 Contents and goals of this course a coherent picture of intelligent systems connection between Aristotelian / Boolean logic and probability theory graphical models: a structural language for probabilistic computations inference on functions supervised learning {(xi, y i)} f : X R N regression {(xi, c i)} f : X N classification inference on structure {xi} p(x) unsupervised learning models (Gaussian processes, Support Vector Machines, Neural Networks,... ) algorithms (integration, optimization, sampling,... )
15 Is this a machine learning course? Related fields: Statistics Machine learning Scientific inference (in physics, biology, social sciences,... ) numerical mathematics (optimization, integration,... ) control engineering (systems identification) a systems view Intelligent systems consist of interacting parts, in contact with the world require a joint language (probability) linking different parts of the system. We will aim for a computational view emphasizing modularization and abstraction ( probabilistic programming) finite time imposes limits on performance of inference. We will study the way in which learning can fail, the assumptions required for its success, and how generality interacts with efficiency.
16 Summary reasoning and acting under uncertainty intelligence is the ability to reason and act in an uncertain world. an intelligent system observes the world, infers its structure, then acts to effect change. probability theory is the mathematical language of inference.
17 Admin Stuff things to write down Slides: Mailing List: Lecturers: Tutors: Tutorials: date to fix Feedback: return at end of each lecture Exercises: need 30% correct to be admitted to exam Final grade: 100% exam Break: would you prefer 2 45 minutes or 90 minutes?
18 Some Literature but this course is not based explicitly on any of them Free online: David J C MacKay Cambridge, 2003 Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms David Barber Cambridge, 2012 Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning Carl E Rasmussen & Christopher K I Williams MIT, 2006 Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning Non-free: Judea Pearl Morgan Kaufmann, 1988 Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems Christopher Bishop Springer, 2007 Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning Bernhard Schölkopf & Alexander J Smola MIT, 2001 Learning with Kernels Edwin T Jaynes & G Larry Bretthorst Cambridge, 2003 Probability Theory the Logic of Science
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