University of Groningen. Interregional migration in Indonesia Wajdi, Nashrul

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1 University of Groningen Interregional migration in Indonesia Wajdi, Nashrul IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below. Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Publication date: 2017 Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database Citation for published version (APA): Wajdi, N. (2017). Interregional migration in Indonesia: Macro, micro, and agent-based modelling approaches [Groningen]: University of Groningen Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum. Download date:

2 Interregional Migration in Indonesia Macro, micro, and agent-based modelling approaches Nashrul Wajdi

3 The research presented in this dissertation was conducted in the Department of Demography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences at the University of Groningen, and funded by the NFP/NUFFIC scholarship grant number: NFP PhD CF ISBN ISBN (E-publication) Dutch translation for summary Rik Huizinga, English language editing Chapters 1, 5, and 6: Miriam Hils-Cosgrove, Chapter 2: Wim C.J. Tommassen, Cover design and illustrations Eddy Surahman, Interior page layout Nashrul Wajdi Print Zalsman Groningen B.V., Groningen Nashrul Wajdi, and All rights reserved. Save exceptions stated by the law, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system of any nature, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, included a complete or partial transcription, without the prior written permission of the author.

4 Interregional Migration in Indonesia Macro, micro, and agent-based modelling approaches PhD thesis to obtain the degree of PhD at the University of Groningen on the authority of the Rector Magnificus Prof. E. Sterken and in accordance with the decision by the College of Deans. This thesis will be defended in public on Thursday 19 October 2017 at hours by Nashrul Wajdi born on 13 December 1979 in Lombok Timur, Indonesia

5 Supervisors Prof. dr. C.H. Mulder Prof. dr. L.J.G. van Wissen Co-supervisor Prof. S. Moertiningsih Adioetomo, SE, MA, PhD Assessment Committee Prof.dr. R.L. Holzhacker Prof. dr. P. Hooimeijer Prof. Ir. B. Hari Wibisono, MUP, MSc, PhD

6 Fabi-ayyi ala-i rabbikumatukadzhibaan Then which of the Blessings of your Lord will you both deny? Surah Ar-Rahman [55:78] To family and friends

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8 Overview of the chapters The four empirical chapters included in this PhD dissertation are slightly different versions of the following publications and manuscripts: Chapter 2 Wajdi, N., van Wissen, L.J.G., & Mulder, C.H. (2015). Interregional Migration Flows in Indonesia. Sojourn: Journal of Social Issues in Southeast Asia, 30 (2): Chapter 3 Wajdi, N., Adioetomo, S.M., & Mulder, C.H. (published online before print, 2017). Gravity models of interregional migration in Indonesia. BIES: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies. Chapter 4 Wajdi, N., Mulder, C.H., & Adioetomo, S.M. (2017). Inter-regional migration in Indonesia: A micro approach. Journal of Population Research, 34(3): Chapter 5 Wajdi, N., & van Wissen, L.J.G. (2017). An agent-based model of interregional migration in Indonesia. A preliminary version of this chapter was presented at Dutch Demography Day 2016, Utrecht, The Netherlands. The latest version of this chapter was presented at the 6 th Indonesian Regional Science Association (IRSA) International Institute annual conference on July 2017 in Manado, North Sulawesi, Indonesia. vii

9 Table of contents Overview of the chapters Table of contents vii List of tables x List of figures xi vii Chapter 1. Introduction Background Previous research Scope of the study 10 Chapter 2. Interregional Migration Flows in Indonesia Introduction Literature review Data and methodology Results Conclusion 48 Chapter 3. Gravity Models of Interregional Migration in Indonesia Introduction Theoretical background Data and method Results Conclusion and discussion 76 Chapter 4. Interregional Migration in Indonesia: A Micro Approach Introduction Theoretical background Data, variables, and method Results Conclusion and discussion 105 Chapter 5. Interregional Migration in Indonesia: An Agent-based Modelling Approach Introduction Model description and the scenarios Implementation and results Conclusion Discussion and possible model extensions 151 viii

10 Chapter 6. Conclusion and Discussion Introduction Summary of the findings Discussion of the findings Discussion on data, methods, and opportunities for future research Policy implications 170 Nederlandse samenvatting 176 Ringkasan dalam Bahasa Indonesia 178 Appendices 181 Acknowledgments 251 ix

11 List of tables TABLE 1.1. Summary information on the division of Indonesia into 13 regions 14 TABLE 2.1. Summary of population redistribution phases, their characteristics and indicators 29 TABLE 2.2. The odds, odds ratios and ratios of odds ratios of migrant status, origin and time 34 TABLE 2.3. Regression coefficient of saturated multinomial logit of Origin and Destination ([O][D]), TABLE 2.4. Regression coefficient of saturated multinomial logit of Origin, Destination and Time ([O][D][T=1]), TABLE 2.5. Regression coefficient of saturated multinomial logit of Origin, Destination and Time ([O][D][T=2]), TABLE 2.6. Total Flows Gini Index Values for , and Inter-regional Migration in Indonesia 45 TABLE 3.1. Summary of the data source for explanatory variables 66 TABLE 3.2. Summary of explanatory variables expected results 68 TABLE 3.3. Descriptive statistics of the variables 71 TABLE 3.4. Poisson regression results for basic and modified gravity models 72 TABLE 4.1. Definition of variables 93 TABLE 4.2. Multinomial logit regression of the likelihood of migrating from Jakarta to: (i) another metro area within commuting distance, (ii) another metro area, and (iii) a non-metro area (odds ratios) 98 TABLE 4.3. Multinomial logit regression of the likelihood of migrating from a metro area to: (i) Jakarta, (ii) another metro area, and (iii) a nonmetro area (odds ratios) 100 TABLE 4.4. Multinomial logit regression of the likelihood of migrating from a non-metro area to: (i) Jakarta, (ii) another metro area, and (iii) a non-metro area (odds ratios) 102 TABLE 5.1. Linear regression results for out-migration rate, TABLE 5.2. Initialisation for population, initial vs. real data 127 TABLE 5.3. Typology of the focus of interregional in- and out-migration fields based on the in- and out- migration indices 145 x

12 List of Figures FIGURE 1.1. Map of Indonesia, showing the regions used in analysis, with an inset showing a map of Mebidangro 16 FIGURE 1.2. Map of Java showing the regions used in the analysis 16 FIGURE 2.1. Inter-regional migration flows in Indonesia FIGURE 2.2. Inter-regional migration flows in Indonesia FIGURE 2.3. Inter-regional migration flows in Indonesia FIGURE 2.4. Migration Field Gini Index Values, , and FIGURE 4.1. Standardised percentage of people migrating from Jakarta by age group 95 FIGURE 4.2. Standardised percentage of people migrating from other metros by age group 95 FIGURE 4.3. Standardised percentage of people migrating from nonmetros by age group 96 FIGURE 5.1. Diagram for the agent-based model for interregional migration in Indonesia 116 FIGURE 5.2. Population density and the out-migration rate in Indonesia, FIGURE 5.3. Population density and in-migration rates in Indonesia, FIGURE 5.4. Different thresholds for various scenarios 125 FIGURE 5.5. Observed out-migration rate vs simulated out-migration rate for each region in Indonesia in FIGURE 5.6. Observed in-migration rate vs simulated in-migration rate for each region in Indonesia in FIGURE 5.7. Observed migration flows (left), simulated migration flows (right) 130 FIGURE Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Jakarta 131 FIGURE Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Bodetabek 131 FIGURE Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Bandung Raya 132 FIGURE Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of West Java and Banten 132 xi

13 FIGURE Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Kedungsepur 132 FIGURE Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of Central Java and Yogyakarta 132 FIGURE Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Gerbangkertosusila 133 FIGURE Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of East Java 133 FIGURE Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Mebidangro 133 FIGURE Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of Sumatera 133 FIGURE Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Kalimantan 134 FIGURE Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Sulawesi 134 FIGURE Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of Indonesia 134 FIGURE 5.9. Map of Indonesia (above) and map of Java (below) showing areas with different groups based on the observed patterns of net migration rate 135 FIGURE The simulated out-migration rate from for the baseline scenario BS 137 FIGURE The simulated out-migration rate from for scenario 1 Sc1 138 FIGURES FIGURE FIGURE FIGURE The simulated out-migration rate from for scenario 2 Sc2 139 The intercepts of saturated multinomial logit of regions in Indonesia by Destination ([O][D]), The raw coefficients for the out-migration component flow index (left), the raw coefficients for the in-migration component flows index (middle), and the raw coefficients for the total flow index (right) for the Map of Indonesia (above) and map of Java (below) showing regions based on the typology in the migration system in xii

14 FIGURE FIGURE Map of Indonesia (above) and map of Java (below) showing regions based on the typology in the migration system in Map of Indonesia (above) with a map of Java (below) showing the percentage differences of population growth between the official population projection and the baseline scenario of the simulation in the period 149 xiii

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