Leveraging Cross-Disciplinary Science for Induced Seismicity Risk Management

Transcription

1 Transatlantic Knowledge Sharing Conference on Unconventional Hydrocarbons: Resources, Risks, Impact and Research Needs Session 1 Induced Seismicity Amsterdam June 20, 2017 Leveraging Cross-Disciplinary Science for Induced Seismicity Risk Management Kris J. Nygaard Sr. Consultant ExxonMobil Upstream Research Company Houston, Texas

2 The Impact of Hydraulic Fracturing ~ Activism / debate over shale development opportunities and risks ~ Significant USA greenhouse gas reductions (fuel switching)

3 The Impact of Hydraulic Fracturing ~ 45% of USA domestic oil production ~ 65% of USA domestic natural gas production Image source: United States Energy Information Agency, Annual Energy Outlook 2016, August 2016, Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2016) available at

4 Keys To This Success Managing Risks Responsible operations philosophy Effective risk management framework Managing Uncertainties Accounting for subsurface complexity Calibrating models with appropriate data Evaluating results based on risk mitigation, and the probabilities & consequences Collaborating with Stakeholders & Regulators Working with local communities to manage impacts Transparency and reasonable regulations to enable safe and sound development Supporting research to improve understanding and risk mitigation

5 Induced Seismicity Risks Subject of Extensive Dialogue in N. America Since 2011 Saltwater Disposal Operations Hydraulic Fracturing Operations British Columbia & Alberta StatesFirst Initiative Colorado California Stanford SCITS Oklahoma Texas Illinois Kansas Ohio US Environmental Protection Agency Pennsylvania Arkansas USA National Academies Colombia Blue select examples of regulatory approaches developed based on local situation Red select examples of significant work to better inform the stakeholder community

6 The Knowledge & Science Continues to Evolve USA National Academies Report (2013) StatesFirst Report (2015) National Research Council of the National Academies Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies (ISBN 13: ) available at Ground Water Protection Council and Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission. Potential Injection-Induced Seismicity Associated with Oil & Gas Development: A Primer on Technical and Regulatory Considerations Informing Risk Management and Mitigation pages. Available at

7 Consequence Increasing Effective Risk Management Focus on Assessment & Mitigation Risk is the combination of: Probabilities Consequences Risk Assessment Risk mitigation via: Design Equipment Procedures Mitigators Decreasing Probability Reference: King, G.E., (2012) Hydraulic Fracturing 101: What Every Representative, Environmentalist, Regulator, Reporter, Investor, University Researcher, Neighbor and Engineer Should Know About Estimating Frac Risk and Improving Frac Performance in Unconventional Gas and Oil Wells, SPE Paper No

8 How Seismicity May Be Triggered by Fluid Injection A fault may slip due to injection when it is sufficiently close to critical stress conditions and the subsurface stress or pressure is sufficiently altered Integration of multiple technical disciplines are required to inform the understanding

9 Subsurface Stresses Can Change Due to Many Causes Dominant Cause Natural tectonics Unique or Rare Circumstances Aquifer level changes Dam/reservoir impoundment Mining Carbon Capture & Storage Wastewater disposal wells O&G injection/extraction Hydraulic fracturing

10 Risk is Associated Ground Motion and substantially depends on local conditions Characterized by Modified Mercalli Intensity MMI, Magnitude, PGA, & PGV Scales Example simulation based on Groningen subsurface characterization Developed after information contained in Wald, D.J., Worden, B.C., Quitoriano, V., and Pankow, K.L., 2005, ShakeMap manual: technical manual, user's guide, and software guide: U.S. Geological Survey, 132 p. Wald, D.J., Quitoriano, V., Heaton, T.H., and Kanamori, H., 1999, Relationship between Peak Ground Acceleration, Peak Ground Velocity, and Modified Mercalli Intensity in California: Earthquake Spectra, v. 15, no. 3, p

11 Salt Water Disposal & Hydraulic Fracturing Are Significantly Different Saltwater Disposal Hydraulic Fracturing Long-term Injection (years) Relatively Large Volumes Injection into Relatively High Permeability and Porosity Zones Short-term Injection (days) Relatively Small Volumes (compared to injection wells) Post-fracturing, flowback relieves pressure

12 Saltwater Disposal Operations Under unique geologic conditions seismicity can be triggered by subsurface pressure changes associated with large volume / long term injection Example Disposal Wells Oklahoma, USA Examples of Regulatory Approaches Revised permitting conditions Volume/rate restrictions Enhanced monitoring requirements Traffic light systems Volume / Rate Restrictions (Oklahoma) Image: Courtesy Stanford Professor M. D. Zoback

13 Hydraulic Fracturing Operations Micro-seismicity always occurs and is normally expected with hydraulic fracturing In rare circumstances, surface-felt seismicity may be triggered by subsurface pressure / stress changes from hydraulic fracturing Examples of Regulatory Approaches Enhanced monitoring requirements Traffic light systems Operational adjustments Alberta, Canada > 4.0M (cease) > 2.0M (inform, response) < 2.0M (no action) Oklahoma, USA 3.5M (suspend) 3.0M (pause, modify) 2.5M (mitigate) < 2.5 (no action) Illustration of distribution of micro-seismic measurements obtained during hydraulic fracturing operations in major N. America shale basins. Illustration after Warpinski, N. (2014). A Review of Hydraulic-Fracture Induced Microseismicity. 48th US Rock Mechanics / Geomechanics Symposium. ARMA , p. 12. Minneapolis: American Rock Mechanics Association. Ohio, USA 3.0M (suspend) 2.5M (temporary halt) 2.0M (modify) 1.5M (communicate) < 1.5M (no action)

14 Consequence Lower Higher Examples of Industry Response Developing and sharing information on risk management approaches Pursuing internal research Supporting and collaborating with university research Sharing knowledge and information with regulators Higher Probability Lower Selecting well locations available fault maps historical seismicity records Limiting volumes / shutting in wells Installation of proprietary monitoring arrays Stanford University Fault Slip Potential Software publicly available at

15 Research Opportunities Improving the knowledge of natural tectonics and subsurface stress / pressure conditions and identification of significant faults systems prone to slip Improving the understanding of ground shaking behavior and seismic wave attenuation characteristics More broadly establishing integrated and interdisciplinary fit-for-purpose technical approaches for risk management Developing effective capabilities and methods, based on integrated physics, to differentiate naturally-occurring earthquakes from induced earthquakes

16 Summary Approaches to assess and manage seismicity risk should be encouraged and be based on the local geology, situation, and conditions State regulators in the USA have concluded A one-size-fits-all approach is infeasible, due to significant variability in local geology and surface conditions, including such factors as population, building conditions, infrastructure, critical facilities, and seismic monitoring capabilities. * Collaboration between industry, regulatory agencies, and the research community will continue to advance the science and knowledge surrounding induced seismicity * Ground Water Protection Council and Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission. (2015). Potential Injection-Induced Seismicity Associated with Oil & Gas Development: A Primer on Technical and Regulatory Considerations Informing Risk Management and Mitigation. Oklahoma City: GWPC / IOGCC. 16

17 Select References For This Presentation Publications Ground Water Protection Council and Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission. (2015). Potential Injection-Induced Seismicity Associated with Oil & Gas Development: A Primer on Technical and Regulatory Considerations Informing Risk Management and Mitigation. Oklahoma City: GWPC / IOGCC. King, G. (2012). Hydraulic Fracturing 101: What Every Representative, Environmentalist, Regulator, Reporter, Investor, University Researcher, Neighbor and Engineer Should Know About Estimating Frac Risk and Improving Frac Performance in Unconventional Gas and Oil Wells. SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference (p. 80). The Woodlands: Society of Petroleum Engineers. doi:doi: / ms Rubinstein, J. L. (2015). Myths and Facts on Wastewater Injection, Hydraulic Fracturing, Enhanced Oil Recovery, and Induced Seismicity. Seismological Research Letters, 86. The National Research Council. (2013). Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies. The National Academies Press. Retrieved from USEPA. (2015). Minimizing and Managing Potential Impacts of Injection-Induced Seismicity from Class II Disposal Wells: Practical Approaches. Washington, DC. : Underground Injection Control National Technical Workgroup, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Warpinski, N. (2014). A Review of Hydraulic-Fracture Induced Microseismicity. 48th US Rock Mechanics / Geomechanics Symposium. ARMA , p. 12. Minneapolis: American Rock Mechanics Association. Walters, R., Zoback, M., Baker, J., and Beroza, G. (2015) Characterizing & Responding to Seismic Risk Associated with Earthquakes Potentially Triggered by Fluid Disposal and Hydraulic Fracturing, doi: / Seismological Research Letters Volume 86, Number 4 July/August 2015 McMahon, P.B., Barlow, J., Engle, M., Belitz, K., Ging, P., Hunt, A., Jurgens, B., Kharaka, Y., Tollett, R., and Kresse, T. (2017) Methane and Benzene in Drinking-Water Wells Overlying the Eagle Ford, Fayetteville, and Haynesville Shale Hydrocarbon Production Areas, DOI: /acs.est.7b00746, Environmental Science & Technology Article ASAP, available at Workshop Proceedings National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; Division on Earth and Life Studies; Board on Earth Sciences and Resources; Water Science and Technology Board; Roundtable on Unconventional Hydrocarbon Development (2016) Workshop on Onshore Unconventional Hydrocarbon Development: Legacy issues, induced seismicity, and innovations in managing risk. Panel 4: Induced Seismicity: Present Understanding and Future Approaches to Manage Risk. video recording of presentations and discussion available at 17

18 Thank you

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