Basin and Petroleum System Modeling for Piceance Basin and Uncertainty Quan8fica8on

Transcription

1 Basin and Petroleum System Modeling for Piceance Basin and Uncertainty Quan8fica8on Yao Tong 1, Tapan Mukerji 1, Allegra Hosford Scheirer 1, Paul Weimer 2, Stephen Cumella 3, Kenneth Peters 4 1. Stanford University, 2. University of Colorado Boulder, 3. Endeavour Interna8onal Corpora8on, 4. Schlumberger Informa8on Solu8ons Basin and Petroleum System Modeling Group 5 th Annual Affiliates Mee:ng November 28, 2012 hcp://bpsm.stanford.edu

2 Outline Project Overview Piceance Basin Background and Basin Centered Gas Accumula:on (BCGA) Current 1- D model study Progress on 3- D modeling Uncertainty quan:fica:on Nov BPSM 2

3 Project Overview Phase 1: Construct 1D and 3D basin models for Piceance Basin to becer understanding of basin- centered gas accumula:ons in Piceance Basin Phase 2: Study and test the sensi:vi:es and quan:fy the uncertain:es in basin modeling study Explore new modules in PetroMod soxware Nov BPSM 3

4 Piceance Basin Background Leibovitz (2010) Loca8on The Piceance Basin is a large structural basin in northwestern Colorado formed during the Late Cretaceous through Eocene. It covers an area of approximately 15,500 km2 Basin Structure The basin is bounded by the Axial Basin arch to the north, White River upliu to the east, Sawatch upliu to the southeast, Uncompahgre upliu to the southwest, Douglas Creek arch to the west Highly asymmetric, steep flank on the east, gently dipping flanks on the west and southwest Nov BPSM 4

5 Stra:graphy of Piceance Basin Mesaverde Generalized stra8graphic column showing the reservoir rocks that contain significant amounts of oil and gas 4 major total petroleum systems contribu8ng hydrocarbons to the Piceance Basin: Phosphoria Mancos- Mowry Mesaverde Green River (USGS Report, 2002) Nov BPSM 5

6 Basin Produc:on history and Basin Centered Gas Accumula:on (BCGA) Map showing the loca8on of major oil and gas fields in the Piceance Basin. Leibovitz (2010) Produc8on began : 1931 Williams Fork Forma8on (Cretaceous Mesaverde Group) is a major contributor of the in- place hydrocarbon gas 38 fields have been discovered and produce petroleum, 21 fields produce par8ally or completely from the basin centered gas accumula8ons (BCGA) BCGA characterized by: gas- prone source rocks, low permeability reservoirs, lack of down- dip water contacts con8nuously saturated gas interval in the deeper part of the basin. Nov BPSM 6

7 Study Objec:ves Ø Phase 1: 1- D and 3- D basin modeling Construct 1D model and study the Mesaverde Petroleum System with exis8ng source rock gas genera8on and calibrate with previous study Construct 3D model and explored other source rock, inves8gate contribu8ons of other gas source intervals to the BCGA Ø Phase 2: Sensi8vity Analysis What are the impacts of uncertain8es in the input data on the model? What is the probability of extreme scenarios? How sensi8ve are the rela8ons between parameter varia8ons and the resul8ng output varia8on? What are the impacts of spa8al uncertain8es in lithologies and rock proper8es on the model? Nov BPSM 7

8 Current 1D Model Well Loca8on : Our first 1D model is built at the loca8on of Mobil Oil T G, located in the structural trough of the Piceance Basin. This well is located where the Cameo Coal source rock is buried deepest in the basin. Modeling constructed by the latest PetroMod version Nov BPSM 8

9 1D Model Input Burial and erosion history data are from USGS Uinta- Piceance Assessment Team, Source rock proper8es: We use Cameo Coal as the source rock to compare with previous published study results (Zhang et al., 2008). Kine:c model is D/E Type III of Pepper and Corvi (1995). (Other possible kine:c models will be inves:gated in the future) TOC is 50% and HI is 150 mg HC/gTOC Boundary Condi8on Paleowater depth informa:on are from Mowry Shale Sediment- water interface temperature is obtained using the Auto SWIT tool in PetroMod Constant heat flow of 60 mw/m 2 is used. Nov BPSM 9

10 1D Model Results Cameo Coal Reconstruc8on of the burial history and temperature evolu8on Nov BPSM 10

11 1D Model Results Depth (U) The vitrinite reflectance data matches the Ro data ( + ) from previous published experiment results (Zhang et al., 2008). Nov BPSM 11

12 1D Model Results Temperature (degc) Time (Ma) Gas Genera8on Rate Time (Ma) Simula8on results indicate that the Cameo Coal started to generate gas about 48 Ma and con8nued un8l about 10Ma, when a major episode of upliu began Thermal history shows that temperature dropping resulted from upliuing and erosion started from 10 Ma Gas genera8on rate affected by thermal history. Note that a rapid decrease of the gas genera8on rate occurred when temperature decrease from 10 Ma.

13 1D model limita:on A 1D model might quan:ta:vely model the hydrocarbon charge at a certain loca:on within basin but it lacks the capability to capture the evolu:on in lateral direc:ons and thus 3D model is required for regional study Nov BPSM 13

14 3- D Modeling Progress Started with crea8ng surfaces for 3- D modeling (combine seismic and well informa8on) Time to depth conversion for 6 layers 5 wells around the basin for velocity control 6 8me maps converted to Depth map v Basement surface v Mississippian Leadville Limestone v Pennsylvanian Maroon Forma8on v Cretaceous Dakota Sandstone Forma8on v Cameo Coal Forma8on v Late Cretaceous Mesaverde Forma8on Petra Database with 231 well forma8on tops informa8on Mesaverde Cameo Dakota Maroon Leadville Basement Nov BPSM 14

15 Velocity informa:on 5 wells around the basin for velocity control 1 McDaniel # #1 Rulison Deep 3 #1-27 Arco Deep 4 Whi8ng Boies 5 Fed BCU Nov BPSM 15

16 Time to Depth Conversion 6 TWTT Maps Nov BPSM 16

17 Time to Depth Conversion 6 Forma:on Tops obtained Nov BPSM 17

18 Well Database Piceance Basin Mesaverde Outcrop (shaded green area) Petra Wells database: wells with forma8on tops informa8on - Great resources for stra8graphy control Nov BPSM 18

19 Uncertainty Quan:fica:on Uncertainty Quan8fica8on: Basin and petroleum system modeling covers large spa8al and temporal intervals. Many of the input parameters are highly uncertain and needed further inves8ga8on What are the impacts of uncertain:es in the input data on the model? What is the probability of extreme scenarios? How sensi:ve are the rela:ons between parameter varia:ons and the resul:ng output varia:on? What are the impacts of spa:al uncertain:es in lithologies and rock proper:es on the model? Global Sensi8vity Analysis Method recently developed by SCRF(Stanford Center for Reservoir Forecas8ng): Generate mul:ple models and obtain model response Cluster models into different classes in MDS space (lower dimension space) Conduct sensi:vity analysis and iden:fy significant parameters/interac:ons between parameters which impact the model response most Nov BPSM 19

20 Summary and Future Work Ø Phase 1: 1- D and 3- D basin modeling Construct 1D model and study the Mesaverde Petroleum System with exis8ng source rock gas genera8on and calibrate with previous study (Poster on AAPG Rocky Mountain Sec8on, Sep 9-12, 2012) Construct 3D model and explored other source rock inves8gate contribu8ons of three gas source intervals to the BCGA: Cameo coals in the Lower Williams Fork Niobrara shale Castlegate condensed sec8on in the Mancos Shale Ø Phase 2: Global Sensi8vity Analysis apply on Basin Modeling Iden8fy model response Study both con8nuous and categorical parameters impact Nov BPSM 20

21 Acknowledgement

22 Backup Nov BPSM 22

23 3 source rocks Cameo Coal Castlegate condensed sec8on Niobrara Shale Nov BPSM 23

24 Piceance Basin Stra:graphy An east west cross section of the central part of Piceance basin showing the stratigraphy The stra8graphic sequence in the basin (above figure) includes : (1) the Upper Cretaceous Mancos Shale, Mesaverde Group composed the Iles and Williams Fork forma8on (2) the Ter8ary Wasatch (Paleocene Eocene), Green River (Eocene), and Uinta forma8ons (Eocene) The (1) Upper Cretaceous is the thickest sec8on, more than 3000 m (10,000 U) Source rock: Cameo coal and Carbonaceous Shale in the lower part of Williams Fork Forma8on 24

25 Mesaverde TPS Natural gas accumula:ons generated primarily from coal and carbonaceous shales in the Upper Cretaceous Mesaverde Forma:on or Group Much of the gas expelled from Mesaverde coal and carbonaceous shale units migrated into low- permeability sandstone beds in the Mesaverde Petroleum System. resul:ng in basin- centered gas accumula:ons in both basins.

26 Uncertainty Quan:fica:on Models in MDS Space Nov BPSM 26