READI WG Meeting San Francisco December 11, 2013

Transcription

1 READI Activities at SOPAC Yehuda Bock Peng Fang, Jianghui Geng, Dara Goldberg, Jennifer Haase, Diego Melgar, Glen Offield, Jessie Saunders, Melinda Squibb, Anne Sullivan, Yuval Reuveni Scripps Orbit and Permanent Array Center Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics Scripps Institution of Oceanography University California San Diego Collaborators: Robert Clayton (Caltech), Seth Gutman (NOAA), Mark Jackson (NOAA), Sharon Kedar (JPL), Jayme Laber (NOAA), Angelyn Moore ( JPL), Susan Owen (JPL), Ivory Small (NOAA), Frank Webb (JPL), Ellen Yu (Caltech) READI WG Meeting San Francisco December 11, 2013

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3 Seismodeodetic Upgrades Upgraded GPS station RAAP MEMS accelerometer deployed on GPS monument Geodetic Module in equipment box Other sensors can be accommodated

4 Providing warnings of natural hazards through integration of GPS with small, inexpensive seismic and meteorological sensors deployed over networks of field stations and/or large engineered structures Continuous measure of seismic motions + = GPS (on building) Accelerometer Continuous atmospheric water vapor maps + = GPS (in field) Meteorological Sensors (pressure, temperature)

5 Project Components and Data Flow Sensor Web Displacements Velocities PWV Alerts SGM: seismogeodesy/meteorology analysis and output MEMS Sensors GAM client ACE upload SGM in house SGM SGM ACE SGM in module Serial

6 Seismogeodetic Monitoring System QC, variance statistics IP Ports IP Ports streaming streaming binary IP Ports binary streaming binary GPS SOPAC RTD positioning SOPAC RTD positioning Network Adjustment GPS positions Kalman Filter Seismogeodetic combination: x(t),v(t),a(t) Pd scaling traveltime + 5s EQ magnitude PGD scaling max moment release time EQ magnitude detection fastcmt moment tensor line source rapid finite fault inversion: fault slip model Other EQ event trigger acceleration met or other SOPAC get_acc client SOPAC get_met client or other sensor Real-time Wavepool fault inversion with offshore : fault slip model tsunami model pull eryo client acc_client SCEC DC wave pool and archive AIST2STP to user Other analysis centers i.e. CWU GPS Cockpit Other analysis centers Common Alert Protocol

7 Seismogeodetic Monitoring System QC, variance statistics IP Ports IP Ports streaming streaming binary IP Ports binary streaming binary GPS SOPAC RTD positioning SOPAC RTD positioning Network Adjustment GPS positions Kalman Filter Seismogeodetic combination: x(t),v(t),a(t) Pd scaling traveltime + 5s EQ magnitude PGD scaling max moment release time EQ magnitude detection fastcmt moment tensor line source rapid finite fault inversion: fault slip model Other EQ event trigger acceleration met or other SOPAC get_acc client SOPAC get_met client or other sensor Real-time Wavepool fault inversion with offshore : fault slip model tsunami model December 9-10 test run with shake table measurements pull eryo client acc_client SCEC DC wave pool and archive AIST2STP to user Other analysis centers i.e. CWU GPS Cockpit Other analysis centers Common Alert Protocol

8 Recent Advances in Seismogeodetic Analysis 1) A real time GPS service that produces satellite clocks and fractional cycle biases available for positioning individual sites. This means cpu requirements increase linearly with the number of sites in PPP mode, increasing the feasibility of analyzing from large dense networks in real time; Geng, J., C. Shi, M. Ge, A. H. Dodson, Y. Lou, Q. Zhao, and J. Liu (2012), Improving the estimation of fractional-cycle biases for ambiguity resolution in precise point positioning, Journal of Geodesy, 86(8), ) The tightly-coupled Kalman filter combination of GPS observations with local accelerometer. This provides ambiguity resolution comparable in quality to a network solution and real-time precision of < 15mm horizontal standard deviation; Geng, J., Y. Bock, D. Melgar, B. W. Crowell, and J. S. Haase (2013), A new seismogeodetic approach applied to GPS and accelerometer observations of the 2012 Brawley seismic swarm: Implications for earthquake early warning, Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems, 14(7), (3) Finite CMT and fault slip models (Tokachi-oki, El Mayor-Cucapah, Tohoku-oki) Melgar, D., Y. Bock and B. Crowell (2012), Real-time centroid moment tensor determination for large earthquakes from local and regional displacement records, Geophys. J. Int., doi: /j X x. Crowell, B. W., Y. Bock and D. Melgar (2012), Real-time inversion of GPS for finite fault modeling and rapid hazard assessment, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09305, doi: /2012gl Melgar, D. and Y. Bock (2013), Near-Field Tsunami Models with Rapid Earthquake Source Inversions from Land and Ocean Based Observations: The Potential for Forecast and Warning, J. Geophys. Res., 118, doi: /2013jb

9 Recent Advances in Seismogeodetic Analysis 3) Real time integration of accelerometer to velocity and displacement without baseline corrections, providing the fundamental input for rapid finite fault source inversion; Melgar, D., Y. Bock, D. Sanchez and B. W. Crowell (2013), On robust and reliable automated baseline corrections for strong motion seismology, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 1 11, doi: /jgrb ) Tsunami Modeling (Tohoku-oki) Melgar, D. and Y. Bock (2013), Near-Field Tsunami Models with Rapid Earthquake Source Inversions from Land and Ocean Based Observations: The Potential for Forecast and Warning, J. Geophys. Res., 118, doi: /2013jb ) Simultaneous solution for ground motion tilt to mitigate errors in accelerometer recordings; Geng, J., D. Melgar, Y. Bock, E. Pantoli, and J. Restrepo (2013), Recovering coseismic point ground tilts from collocated high-rate GPS and accelerometers, Geophysical Research Letters, 40(19), ) P-wave detection and low frequency estimates of P-wave arrival displacement to support single station earthquake early warning. Crowell, B. W., D. Melgar, Y. Bock, J. S. Haase, and J. Geng (2013), Earthquake magnitude scaling using seismogeodetic, Geophysical Research Letters, 40.

10 After a large earthquake buildings can be damage-tagged based on their permanent tilt and displacements 0.16 Source: Geng et al., GRL, 2013 A 1 degree tilt would be enough to red-tag a building

11 Model of 2011 Tsunami in Honshu: Movies 2011 Honshu Japan (National Geographic)

12 Model of 2011 Tsunami in Honshu: Movies Use GPS available in 157 seconds after earthquake origin time Use GPS and near-shore ocean buoys available after 20 minutes

13 Total precipitable water from satellite (not available over land) Loop Starts December 18, 2010 Loop Ends December 22, 2010 Heavy rain in southern Calif. Moisture Source

14 Accurate forecasts and warnings of flash flooding events depends in large part on timely and accurate information of the moisture available for intense thunderstorms Strong thunderstorm with flash flooding near Ludlow, Calif. (Photo Credit: Will Wilkens)

15 Summer Monsoon GPS system first used in July, 2013 by NOAA National Weather Service in San Diego and Oxnard, Calif. to forecast a summer monsoon and issue accurate flash flood warnings Flooding across Highway 78, San Diego County, Calif., 2013 (Credit: NOAA)

16 Successful forecast of July 2003 summer monsoon and flooding S.D. GPS & sonde El Centro GPS Yuma GPS & sonde Forecaster remarks from NWS Weather Forecast Office in San Diego Realtime GPS precipitable water estimates were trending higher over eastern portions of the forecast area a flash flood watch will be needed for Saturday In order to see the character of the precipitable water values between Yuma and San Diego in the absence of a morning Yuma sounding, the GPS meteorology was utilized. Highway 78 flooded in two locations at Yacqui Pass with 30 vehicles trapped between the two flooded locations. Many large rocks in the roadway. Storm reports Battalion Chief flagged down by the public to report debris moving across the roadway on Sunrise Highway

17 Surface based Water Vapor Data Sites = Weather balloon sites (max of 2x per day) = GPS Integrated Precipitable Water sites (continuous)