The Role of Industry-Academia Collaborative Research and Development in Discovering the Next Generation of Uranium Deposits

Transcription

1 Paradigmatic Shifts in Process The Role of Industry-Academia Collaborative Research and Development in Discovering the Next Generation of Uranium Deposits Jim Marlatt, Raven Minerals Corp. Kurt Kyser, Queen s Facility for Isotope Research

2 Global Distribution of Uranium Companies Saskatchewan 2 # of Companies # of Projects

3 Global In 28 over 9 companies claimed an interest in over 3 uranium project worldwide From an estimated $3.2 billion was expended on uranium exploration Brand new, larger, higher grade economic deposits have not been discovered

4 Deposit Discoveries McArthur River 6 5 Cigar Lake

5 Saskatchewan Over 1 companies claimed some sort of interest in over 2 uranium exploration projects From 2-29 about $65 million has been expended on uranium exploration Brand new, larger, higher grade economic deposits have not been discovered

6 ? Where are the new economic uranium deposits?

7 An Industry in Crisis two decades of exploration has not lead to the discovery of large, new, higher grade economic uranium deposits this is interpreted as a severe and prolonged anomaly we call this is an emerging crisis we call on the need for a paradigm shift in exploration process for new discoveries

8 Athabasca Exemplar: Evidence of Crisis from the Athabasca Learning Curve (Adapted from the framework developed in: Harris, D.P., Zaluski, G., Marlatt, J. A method for the selection of exploration areas for unconformity uranium deposits. Natural Resources Research 29; 18: )

9 Prospector Driven Model Driven The Present: Research/Technology Driven 5 The First Learning Cycle The Second Learning Cycle The Third Learning Cycle? 196 to 198 (2 years) 1981 to Present (27 years +) Large, High-Grade Discovery 2 nd Cycle Endowment = 2.2 Billion lbs U 5 McArthur River 154 million economic lbs U3O8 discovered for an estimated investment of CDN $1.6 billion (1997 dollars) Cigar Lake 5 Key Lake 65 million invested from Cumulative Expenditures ($ Billion)

10 Athabasca Analysis 1.54 billion economic lbs U3O8 (83, tonnes U) discovered at a cost of CDN$ 1.6 billion (1997 $) Total basin endowment is estimated at about 2.2 billion lbs U3O8 (1.2 m tonnes U) About 65 million lbs U3O8 (35, tonnes U) available for discovery on the second learning curve

11 thabasca Basin: Expected Size of Future Economic anium Deposits Discoveries on the 2 nd Learning Curv Best Single Point Estimate 6 8 million lbs expected for $15 investment Probability Density 8% Confidence Range

12 Athabasca Analysis future incremental investment of $15 million should lead to a deposit with an average size of 8 million economic lbs U3O8 (43, tonnes U) An expenditure of $65 million or 4 times this amount over ten years has yielded no new economic discoveries This is a severe and prolonged anomaly

13 Athabasca Summary The absence of economic discovery represents a severe and prolonged anomaly The play is mature, heavily explored, depleting & is not responding to conventional exploration approaches in a timely & cost effective fashion The recognition of ineffective exploration signals the need to shift to a new learning

14 An Industry in Crisis two decades of exploration has not lead to the discovery of large, new, higher grade uranium deposits this is interpreted as a severe and prolonged anomaly we call this is an emerging crisis we call on the need for a paradigm shift in exploration process for new discoveries

15 Industry-Academia Collaborative Research and Paradigm Shifts in Process The Past: Prospector Driven The Present: Model Driven The Future: Research / Technology Driven

16 Probability of Economic Discovery Sequence Targets conceptual drill targets 1, reconnaissance drill tests 1, showings 1 advanced projects 1 pre-feasibility 3 feasibility 1.5 economic deposit 1

17 High Risk Economic U Deposit Endowment Decreases With Each Discovery R&D Can Reduce Risk Risk Potential to Discovery Large Deposits Early in the Process Risk Increases with Each Discovery Eventually is Ineffective And Companies Exit the Basin

18 ? Permissivity Do deposits exist in the geological terrain? Prospectivity Does the enterprise have the technology to search for and discovery these deposits? Can the enterprise develop new technologies?

19 Example of Collaborative Research Publication of Results in Refereed Journals Identification of Favourable Terrains Total Basin Analysis Knowledge Evolving Regional Models Deposit Studies Sequence Stratigraphy Weak Acid Leach Technology Lead Isotope Technology Commercialization of Technology Regional Paragenesis Base Line Studies

20 Prospector Driven Model Driven The Present: Research/Technology Driven 25 The First Learning Cycle The Second Learning Cycle The Third Learning Cycle? to 198 (2 years) 1981 to Present (27 years +) Large, High-Grade Discovery 2 nd Cycle Endowment = 2.2 Billion lbs U 15 1 McArthur River 154 million economic lbs U3O8 discovered for an estimated investment of CDN $1.6 billion (1997 dollars) Cigar Lake 5 Key Lake 65 million invested from Cumulative Expenditures ($ Billion)

21 Model System of Collaborative Research CULTURE CHANGE INVENTOR COLLABORATOR ORGANIZATION Transmission Learning Innovation Reception Adoption

22 Weak Links in the Collaborative Research Value Chain Creativity CULTURE CHANGE INVENTOR COLLABORATOR ORGANIZATION Leadership Innovation Transmission Reception Learning Adoption Management

23 Management Imperative in Supporting R&D Management needs to turn the current business model upside down: Adopt R&D as a top priority in the exploration enterprise Management needs to identify and support rare Creative Leaders Leaders need to develop the sustainable industryacademia collaborative system Leaders need to be adept at nurturing cultural acceptance of R&D outcomes as a change

24 New Technology for The Discovery of Unconformity Deposits New Deposit Model Paradigmatic Options for Future Uranium Unconformity Deposit Model Elliot Lake Deposit Model Shifts in Process Beaverlodge Deposit 195

25 Paradigmatic Shifts in Process Jim Marlatt, Raven Minerals Corp. rt Kyser, Queen s Facility for Isotope Researc