Brief History of Development of Resource Classification Systems

Transcription

1 Brief History of Development of Resource Classification Systems Jim Ross Ross Petroleum (Scotland) Limited UNFC Workshop 1

2 Resource Classification Systems 1928 Petroleum classification of the Soviet Union 1972 and 1975 McKelvey Box 1980 USGS/Bureau of Mines resource classification system 1997 UNFC minerals resource classification 1997 NPD resource classification 2000 SPE/WPC/AAPG resource definitions and classification 2001 NPD resource classification 2004 UNFC integration of coal/petroleum/uranium 2005 Russian Federation (not yet implemented) 2006 CRIRSCO minerals classification template 2007 SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) 2009 Proposed revised UNFC (UNFC-2009) UNFC Workshop 2

3 Resource Classification Systems 1928 Petroleum classification of the Soviet Union 1972 and 1975 McKelvey Box 1980 USGS/Bureau of Mines resource classification system 1997 UNFC minerals resource classification 1997 NPD resource classification 2000 SPE/WPC/AAPG resource definitions and classification 2001 NPD resource classification 2004 UNFC integration of coal/petroleum/uranium 2005 Russian Federation (not yet implemented) 2006 CRIRSCO minerals classification template 2007 SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) 2009 Proposed revised UNFC (UNFC-2009) UNFC Workshop 3

4 McKelvey Box (1972 and 1975) Two-dimensional system Degree of geological assurance Degree of economic feasibility UNFC Workshop 4

5 McKelvey Box (1972 and 1975) Fundamental Principles Reserves are discovered (identified) Reserves are economically recoverable UNFC Workshop 5

6 McKelvey Box (1972 and 1975) IDENTIFIED UNDISCOVERED ECONOMIC SUB-ECONOMIC Proved Probable Possible RESERVES Increasing degree of economic feasibility Increasing degree of geologic assurance Note: Slightly simplified representation from originals UNFC Workshop 6

7 Resource Classification Systems 1928 Petroleum classification of the Soviet Union 1972 and 1975 McKelvey Box 1980 USGS/Bureau of Mines resource classification system 1997 UNFC minerals resource classification 1997 NPD resource classification 2000 SPE/WPC/AAPG resource definitions and classification 2001 NPD resource classification 2004 UNFC integration of coal/petroleum/uranium 2005 Russian Federation (not yet implemented) 2006 CRIRSCO minerals classification template 2007 SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) 2009 Proposed revised UNFC (UNFC-2009) UNFC Workshop 7

8 Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (1997) One-dimensional system Level of project maturity Also requires assessment of uncertainty UNFC Workshop 8

9 Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (1997) UNDISCOVERED 9 Prospects 10 Leads 11 Unmapped Resources DISCOVERED 7 New Discoveries RESERVES 6 Development not very likely 5 May be developed in the long term 4 Early planning phase 3 Late planning phase 2 Approved development 1 In production 0 Ceased production 8 Possible future measures to increase RF UNFC Workshop 9

10 Resource Classification Systems 1928 Petroleum classification of the Soviet Union 1972 and 1975 McKelvey Box 1980 USGS/Bureau of Mines resource classification system 1997 UNFC minerals resource classification 1997 NPD resource classification 2000 SPE/WPC/AAPG resource definitions and classification 2001 NPD resource classification 2004 UNFC integration of coal/petroleum/uranium 2005 Russian Federation (not yet implemented) 2006 CRIRSCO minerals classification template 2007 SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) 2009 Proposed revised UNFC (UNFC-2009) UNFC Workshop 10

11 SPE/WPC/AAPG Petroleum Resource Classification System (2000) Two-dimensional system Level of Project Maturity Characterised by the probability of the project achieving production and hence revenue Range of Uncertainty Characterised by the range of estimated recoverable volumes from the project This distinction is essential for portfolio analysis, decision-making and portfolio management UNFC Workshop 11

12 McKelvey Box showing SPE/WPC/AAPG Terminology (2000) DISCOVERED UNDISCOVERED COMMERCIAL SUB-COMMERCIAL RESERVES CONTINGENT PROSPECTIVE UNFC Workshop 12

13 SPE/WPC/AAPG Petroleum Resource Classification System (2000) DISCOVERED COMMERCIAL DISCOVERED SUB-COMMERCIAL UNDISCOVERED Proved (1P) Low Low Production RESERVES Proved + Probable (2P) CONTINGENT Best Unrecoverable PROSPECTIVE Best Unrecoverable Proved + Probable + Possible (3P) High High PROJECT MATURITY Development and Production Appraisal Exploration Note: Slightly simplified representation from original Range of Uncertainty UNFC Workshop 13

14 Portfolio System (2001) based on SPE/WPC/AAPG System DISCOVERED COMMERCIAL Production RESERVES 1P 2P 3P PROJECT STATUS On Production Under Development Planned for Development Lower Risk DISCOVERED SUB-COMMERCIAL CONTINGENT Low Best High Unrecoverable Development Pending Development on Hold Development not Viable Project Maturity UNDISCOVERED PROSPECTIVE Low Best High Unrecoverable Prospect Lead Play Higher Risk Range of Uncertainty UNFC Workshop 14

15 Resource Classification Systems 1928 Petroleum classification of the Soviet Union 1972 and 1975 McKelvey Box 1980 USGS/Bureau of Mines resource classification system 1997 UNFC minerals resource classification 1997 NPD resource classification 2000 SPE/WPC/AAPG resource definitions and classification 2001 NPD resource classification 2004 UNFC integration of coal/petroleum/uranium 2005 Russian Federation (not yet implemented) 2006 CRIRSCO minerals classification template 2007 SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) 2009 Proposed revised UNFC (UNFC-2009) UNFC Workshop 15

16 Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (2001) UNDISCOVERED Prospects Leads and unmapped resources CONTINGENT New discoveries that have not been evaluated RESERVES Historical Production Development not very likely Recovery likely, but not clarified In the planning phase Licensees have decided to recover Approved development and operation plan In production Sold and delivered petroleum Possible future measures to improve the recovery factor UNFC Workshop 16

17 Resource Classification Systems 1928 Petroleum classification of the Soviet Union 1972 and 1975 McKelvey Box 1980 USGS/Bureau of Mines resource classification system 1997 UNFC minerals resource classification 1997 NPD resource classification 2000 SPE/WPC/AAPG resource definitions and classification 2001 NPD resource classification 2004 UNFC integration of coal/petroleum/uranium 2005 Russian Federation (not yet implemented) 2006 CRIRSCO minerals classification template 2007 SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) 2009 Proposed revised UNFC (UNFC-2009) UNFC Workshop 17

18 CRIRSCO* Minerals Classification Template (2006) Two-dimensional system Degree of geological knowledge and confidence Consideration of modifying factors (nongeological issues, both technical and commercial) * Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards UNFC Workshop 18

19 CRIRSCO classification template Increasing level of geological knowledge and confidence EXPLORATION RESULTS MINERAL INFERRED INDICATED MEASURED MINERAL RESERVES PROBABLE PROVED Consideration of mining, metallurgical, economic, marketing, legal, environmental, social and governmental factors (the Modifying Factors ) UNFC Workshop 19

20 Resource Classification Systems 1928 Petroleum classification of the Soviet Union 1972 and 1975 McKelvey Box 1980 USGS/Bureau of Mines resource classification system 1997 UNFC minerals resource classification 1997 NPD resource classification 2000 SPE/WPC/AAPG resource definitions and classification 2001 NPD resource classification 2004 UNFC integration of coal/petroleum/uranium 2005 Russian Federation (not yet implemented) 2006 CRIRSCO minerals classification template 2007 SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) 2009 Proposed revised UNFC (UNFC-2009) UNFC Workshop 20

21 SPE-PRMS (2007) DISCOVERED COMMERCIAL Production RESERVES 1P 2P 3P DISCOVERED SUB-COMMERCIAL UNDISCOVERED 1C Low CONTINGENT 2C Unrecoverable PROSPECTIVE Best Unrecoverable 3C High Increasing Chance of Commerciality Note: Slightly simplified representation from original Range of Uncertainty UNFC Workshop 21

22 SPE-PRMS Project Maturity Sub-classes DISCOVERED COMMERCIAL DISCOVERED SUB-COMMERCIAL UNDISCOVERED Production RESERVES 1P 2P 3P 1C Low CONTINGENT 2C Unrecoverable PROSPECTIVE Best 3C High Project Maturity Sub-classes On Production Approved for Development Justified for Development Development Pending Development Unclarified or On Hold Development not Viable Prospect Lead Play Increasing Chance of Commerciality Unrecoverable Range of Uncertainty Note: Slightly modified representation from original UNFC Workshop 22

23 Resource Classification Systems 1928 Petroleum classification of the Soviet Union 1972 and 1975 McKelvey Box 1980 USGS/Bureau of Mines resource classification system 1997 UNFC minerals resource classification 1997 NPD resource classification 2000 SPE/WPC/AAPG resource definitions and classification 2001 NPD resource classification 2004 UNFC integration of coal/petroleum/uranium 2005 Russian Federation (not yet implemented) 2006 CRIRSCO minerals classification template 2007 SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) 2009 Proposed revised UNFC (UNFC-2009) UNFC Workshop 23

24 UNFC-2009 Principles Three-dimensional system Economic and social viability (E axis) Field project status and feasibility (F axis) Geological knowledge (G axis) UNFC Workshop 24

25 UNFC-2009 Principles Economic axis Feasibility axis Geological axis UNFC Workshop 25

26 UNFC-2009 Axis E-axis F-axis G-axis Criteria Economic and social viability Field project status and feasibility Geological knowledge Categories E1 E2 E3 F1 F2 F3 F4 G1 G2 G3 G4 UNFC Workshop 26

27 UNFC-2009 UNFC-2009 categories and examples of classes UNFC Workshop 27

28 UNFC-2009 (abbreviated version) Extracted Sales Production Non-sales Production Class E Categories F G Total commodity initially in place Future recovery by commercial development projects or mining operations Potential future recovery by contingent development projects or mining operations Additional quantities in place associated with known deposits Potential future recovery by successful exploration activities Commercial Projects Potentially Commercial Projects Non-Commercial Projects Exploration Projects , 2, 3 1, 2, 3 1, 2, 3 1, 2, 3 4 Additional quantities in place associated with potential deposits UNFC Workshop 28

29 Alignment of Systems UNFC-2009 CRIRSCO (minerals) SPE-PRMS (petroleum) Commercial Projects Mineral Reserves Reserves Known Deposit Potentially Commercial Projects Non-Commercial Projects Mineral Resources Not Defined Contingent Resources Additional quantities in place Not Defined Unrecoverable Potential Deposit Exploration Projects Exploration Results Prospective Resources Additional quantities in place Not Defined Unrecoverable UNFC Workshop 29

30 Conclusions Many different classification systems and reserve/resource definitions have been developed Some use the same terminology, but are based on different specifications and guidelines e.g. Proved reserves Clear trend towards project-based systems Provides linkage to business processes and decision-making UNFC can provide an umbrella classification system Provides linkage between other systems UNFC Workshop 30