Ocean Ice Interactions: A
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1 Ocean Ice Interactions: A Cryospheric Perspective Tony Payne a.j.payne@bristol.ac.uk Steph Cornford, Rupert Gladstone and Dan Martin (LLNL) KISS short course Sept Slide number 1/37
2 Outline Evidence of cryospheric response to oceans The Marine Ice Sheet Instability Flowline modelling of Pine Island Glacier Development and testing ti of an adaptive mesh model and application to PIG Application to West Antarctica: initialization and climate forcing KISS short course Sept Slide number 2/37
3 Components of an ice sheet slow flowing interior (~10 m/yr) fast flowing fl ice streams (>500 m/yr) floating ice shelves grounding line KISS short course Sept Slide number 3/37
4 Ice streams and outlet glaciers sections of fast flowing ice ~50 km wide now thought to be crucial in dynamics of ice sheets KISS short course Sept Slide number 4/37
5 KISS short course Sept Slide number 5/37
6 Larsen ice shelves collapse of ice shelf A in 1995 and B in 2002 meltwater driven fracture understood MacAyeal and dothers 2003 KISS short course Sept Slide number 6/37
7 Larsen ice shelves minimaldirect effect, however glaciers accelerated after collapse natural experiment testing link between floating and grounded ice 2003/2005 Rignot 2004 Scambos and others /2000 KISS short course Sept Slide number 7/37
8 Grounding line retreat KISS short course Sept Slide number 8/37
9 Links GL retreat to mass loss Suggests that mass loss is limited to ice streams KISS short course Sept Slide number 9/37
10 Thinning is caused by increased ice flow KISS short course Sept Slide number 10/37
11 Accelerating response Wingham and others (2009) use cross calibrated ERS 2 and ENVISAT radar altimetry to extend time series from 1995 to 2008 thinning rates increased fourfold KISS short course Sept Slide number 11/37
12 Accelerating response Jenkins and others (2010) identifya bedrock ridge under the ice shelf ~40 km from the current grounding line observed GL retreat rates consistent with GL occupying ridge in mid 1990s Retreat has been consistent since 1990s and accelerated through 2000s 0.95 ±0.09 km/yr with peak 2.8 ± 0.7 km/yr 2011 Jenkins and others Park and others (2013) KISS short course Sept Slide number 12/37
13 Outline Evidence of cryospheric response to oceans The Marine Ice Sheet Instability Flowline modelling of Pine Island Glacier Development and testing ti of an adaptive mesh model and application to PIG Application to West Antarctica: initialization and climate forcing KISS short course Sept Slide number 13/37
14 Marine ice sheet instability KISS short course Sept Slide number 14/37
15 J. Glac KISS short course Sept Slide number 15/37
16 flux across GL sharply increasing function of thickness basic ingredient for marine ice sheet instability q H 5 KISS short course Sept Slide number 16/37
17 Genomics of bryozoans (sedentary organisms) KISS short course Sept Slide number 17/37
18 KISS short course Sept Slide number 18/37
19 Outline Evidence of cryospheric response to oceans The Marine Ice Sheet Instability Flowline modelling of Pine Island Glacier Development and testing ti of an adaptive mesh model and application to PIG Application to West Antarctica: initialization and climate forcing KISS short course Sept Slide number 19/37
20 Flowline modelling of PIG Aim to use simple model of PIG to investigate behaviour from 1900 to 2200 The model is cheap to run so that fine resolution is not an issue Also means 1000s experiments are possible so that can use ensembles to assess effects of parameter uncertainty Joughin et al (2010) use a 2 d d. version of the model and find limited GL retreat KISS short course Sept Slide number 20/37
21 Melt model Box model of sub shelf processes used to generate mean melt rates (Olbers and Hellmer 2010) Temperature and salinity it conserved; 3 equation melt model; fluxes found as a function of density differences Means in two sub shelf hlf boxes used to constrain empirical relation developed by Walker and others (2008) Generates high melt rates close to GL as suggested tdby observations KISS short course Sept Slide number 21/37
22 A = rate factor (a measureof Varying inputs/parameters how easily deformable the ice is, determined by temperature). Minimax Latin Hypercube sampling was used to obtain 5000 combinations of these inputs (i.e. we ran an ensemble of 5000 simulations) i Two parameters jointly determine the surface mass balance profile (includes a contribution from tributaries). Two parameters determine the profileof basaltraction coefficient. A lateral drag parameterisation is used with channel width W One parameter allows the initial (year 1900) thickness profile to vary KISS short course Sept Slide number 22/37
23 Results Likelihood proceedure to accept or reject members based on fit to observed thinning, grounding line positions and velocity Grey are rejected; blue to red reduced discrepancy KISS short course Sept Slide number 23/37
24 Outline Evidence of cryospheric response to oceans The Marine Ice Sheet Instability Flowline modelling of Pine Island Glacier Development and testing ti of an adaptive mesh model and application to PIG Application to West Antarctica: initialization and climate forcing KISS short course Sept Slide number 24/37
25 Bisicles ice sheet model Specifically designed for GL problems Based on CHOMBO adaptive mesh refinement developed by Lawrence Livermore Nti National llb Lab. Uses a vertically integrated form of the stress equations proposed by Schoof and Hindmarsh (2010) known as L1L2 Includes all stress terms but is vertically integrated CHOMBO ensures conservation between grids and offers massive parallelization KISS short course Sept Slide number 25/37
26 BISICLES Trial application to Pine Island Glacier Simulation using reasonable melt increase of 50 m/yr Results dependent on resolution from single level (5km) to six levels l (~150 m) Confirms need for sub km resolution Colours refer to velocity KISS short course Sept Slide number 26/37
27 See movies KISS short course Sept Slide number 27/37
28 Outline Evidence of cryospheric response to oceans The Marine Ice Sheet Instability Flowline modelling of Pine Island Glacier Development and testing ti of an adaptive mesh model and application to PIG Application to West Antarctica: initialization and climate forcing KISS short course Sept Slide number 28/37
29 Experimental design Coupled problem but no such coupled model exists Use a chain of models from global AOGCMs regional ocean and atmosphere models ice sheet model Connelly and Bracewell (2007) show HadCM3 and ECHAM5 to do well for Antarctica Consider onlywest Antarctica KISS short course Sept Slide number 29/37
30 Experimental design SRES scenarios A1B and E1 with AOGCMS HadCM3 ECHAM5 E1 Snowfall regional Melt regional ocean atmospheric modelling modelling RACMO2 LMDZ4 BRIOS FESOM (Utrecht) (Grenoble) (AWI) (AWI) Anomalies against 1980 to 1989 BISICLES ice sheet model KISS short course Sept Slide number 30/37
31 Regional Southern Ocean model forced using AOGCM output. KISS short course Sept Slide number 31/37
32 Ocean forcing major ice shelves Warm water intrusion reported by Hellmer and others (2012) for BRIOS also in FESOM for Ronne Filchner Leads to fold increase in melt Similar il phenomenon for Ross ice shelf after 2100 (FESOM only) Ronne Filchner ice shelf Ross ice shelf KISS short course Sept Slide number 32/37
33 Ocean forcing smaller ice shelves FESOM and BRIOS do not represent smaller shelves well Use index of coastal warming and convert to melt anomaly using empirical relation (e.g., Jacobs and Rignot 2002) Warming of 1 to 2 C or m/yr Jacobs and Rignot 2002 KISS short course Sept Slide number 33/37
34 Results Background dis the initial velocity field KEY 1980 ground line Worst case by 2200 Control (no anomalies) shows some drift KISS short course Sept Slide number 34/37
35 Amundsen Sea and Pine Island Deglaciation of Pine Island Glacier and Smith Glaciers Thwaites shows no retreat related to lack of buttressing? Similar to recent GL observations Pine Island Glacier In general, increased accumulation dominates Thwaites Glacier Smith Glacier KISS short course Sept Slide number 35/37
36 See movies KISS short course Sept Slide number 36/37
37 Summary Increased outflow is enough to compensate increased snowfall Sea level rise is predicted as 5 to 80 mm by 2200 depending on forcing (i.e., small) Sea level rise is limited because GL retreat occurs late in the model run (c.f. ocean forcing) Areas that retreat do not have much ice above buoyancy (so little effect or SLR) and/or Large retreat limited to narrow channels (e.g., Pine Island) Sea level rise appears to continue to increase beyond 2200 Omits East Antarctica Fuller estimate requires coupling to regional ocean model KISS short course Sept Slide number 37/37
38 Antarctic mass balance interior thickening related to changes in snowfall coastal thinning in WAIS (Pine Island, Smith and Thwaites Glaciers) and EAIS (Cook and Totten Glaciers) close correspondence to ice velocity (ice streams) Shepherd and Wingham 2007 Pritchard and others 2009 KISS short course Sept Slide number 38/37
39 Demonstrated that GL retreat, flow acceleration and thinning all linked and caused by increased ice shelf melt KISS short course Sept Slide number 39/37
40 Initial conditions Derived basal traction coeff. Observed ice sheet geometry Use methods based on Lagrange multipliers to find ice viscocity and basal traction consistent with observed velocities Evolve ice sheet for 50 years to allow noise to relax away Employ 3 levels of refinement from 5 km to 612 m Derived rheology factor KISS short course Sept Slide number 40/37
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