Quantitative Economic Analysis of the Industrial Structure of Coastal City of Shandong Province

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1 I.J. Engineering and Manufaturing,,, 4 Published Online June in MECS ( DOI:./ijem... Available online at Quantitative Eonomi Analysis of the Industrial Struture of Coastal City of Shandong Provine Lei She Ping, Ma Hui shool of humanity, eonomis and law Northwestern Polytehnial University No., youyi west road,xi an, Shaanxi, China Abstrat Based on shiftshare method, the author analyses the industrial struture benefit of oastal ity of Shandong sine. Results indiate that the industrial struture of oastal ity of Shandong is not rational in different degree, whih results in slowmoving of the eonomi growth. The industrial struture of Yantai, weihai, rizhao are in lower level, in partiular terti, so it annot provide muhneeded supporting servies for rapid development of the seond. The proportion of the first in the eonomy is extremely large in rizhao, it an't adapt to the new period of industrial struture development trend. Therefore, ontinual adjustment, optimization of the eonomi struture and improvement of the industrial quality are needed so as to promote the oordinated and rapid development of eonomy. Index Terms: Shiftshare method; struture; uantitative eonomi analysis Published by MECS Publisher. Seletion and/or peer review under responsibility of the Researh Assoiation of Modern Eduation and Computer Siene.. Introdution Industrial struture and eonomi growth has a very lose relationship, the industrial struture is the basis of eonomi growth. Different industrial struture has different overall effiieny, whih an lead to eonomi growth at different rates. Different speed of eonomi growth have different demands to the industrial struture and an promote industrial struture hange. From the progress of industrial development in developed ountries, GDP in the three industries is developed in the following patterns( the proportion is from the biggest to the smallest):" the seond the first the third " to "the seond the third the first " to "the third the seond the first ". And the struture of oastal ity in Shandong has its own different eonomi ontribution to the development on Shandong Provine. The paper analyzes the future situation of the industrial struture and its * Corresponding author. address: leimansh@6.om, lize@6.om

2 Quantitative Eonomi Analysis of the Industrial Struture of Coastal City of Shandong Provine ompetition ability of oastal ities within Shandong provine by employing the deviation method (shiftshare the mathematial model, the method).. Shiftshare theory Shiftshare analysis is one of the widely used tehniques for examining regional growth and omparisons. The shiftshare model deomposes eonomi hange in a region into three additive omponents: the referene area omponent, the mix and the regional share. The deomposed variable may be inome, apital stok, employment, value added, or a variety of other measurements[]. The referene area omponent generally refers to the national eonomy and is alled the national share (NS), whih measures the regional target variable hange if it grew at the same rate as the nation. Capital stok is used as the target variable in this paper. The industrial mix (IM) is the omposition of the region and refers to the apital stok hange due to the differene between the growth rate of a partiular setor and that of the whole national. Thus it reflets the degree to whih the region speializes in setors that are fast or slow growing nationally[]. The regional share (RS) reflets the regional impat on a partiular setor, whih is measured by the apital stok hange due to the differene between the regional growth rate and the national growth rate of the. The total shift (TS) is the sum of the three omponents, refleting the hanging eonomi position of the region relative to the nation.. Mathematial models Suppose after the period of [, t], eonomi gross and struture of region i have hanged. Suppose the gross eonomi sale of region i at the beginning stage (the base year) is bio,and that at the final stage is bit. Meanwhile, aording to ertain rules, divide the regional eonomy into industrial setions.bijo and bijt are the eonomi sales of setion j at the beginning and the final stages respetively; Bo and Bt are the gross eonomi sale of region i at the beginning and final stages in orresponding time; Bjo and Bjt are the eonomi sales of setion j of region i at the beginning and final stages[]. The diversifiation rate of setion j in region i during [o,t] is (): rij=(bijtbij)/bijo (j=,, n). () The diversifiation rate of setion j in the whole ountry during [o,t] is (): Rj=(BjtBjo)/Bjo (j=,, n). () Standardize the sale of eah industrial setion in region i, as in (). bij=bio*bjo/bo. Thus during[o,t], Gij,the inrease of setion j an be divided into three omponents: omponent Nij, struture omponent and ompetition omponent Dij, whih are expressed in (4) (): Gij=Nij++Dij. (4) Nij=bij*Rj. =(bijobij)*rj. Dij=bij*(rijRj). () Gi=Ni+Pi+Di. () () (6) ()

3 Quantitative Eonomi Analysis of the Industrial Struture of Coastal City of Shandong Provine Table Result of shiftshare method of Shandong (Unit: million ) ompon ent N Shandong Qingdao Yantai Weihai Rizhao struture ompone nt P ompetiti on ompone nt D ompone nt N strutu re ri ompo nent P ompet ition ri ompo nent D ompone nt N struture ompone nt P ompet ition ri ompo nent D ompone nt N strutu re ri ompo nent P ompetitio n omponent D quotie nt ompo nent N struture ompone nt P ompet ition ri ompo nent D Soure: China ity statistial yearbook, Among the above, Nij is omponent (or the average inrease effet of the region), whih reflets the generated hanges aording to the average inrease impat of the region with the standardized industrial setions. is struture omponent (or the industrial struture effet), whih reflets the impat and ontribution of setion struture to eonomial development. Dij is the ompetition omponent, whih reflets the omparative ompetitive ability of regional setions.the greater the value of the Dij is, the greater the impat of setion ompetitiveness on the eonomi development.aording to the above theory, the general inrease of Gi of a region an be expressed in (): Gi=Ni+Pi+Di. 4. Data Analysis and the Results A. Data resoure The paper deals with the data of four oastal ities from to [4], and generation the orresponding data into the above model respetively. Then we get the eah ity's omponent. The result are as show in table and table. B. Analysis Aording to the table and table, the following onlusions an be drawn. Firstly, in different period, exept for QingDao,the value of strutural deviation omponent in the oastal ities in ShanDong, are all negative in YanTai and WeiHai with only five years of positive value from to, whih shows the superior eonomi growth in Qingdao. The phases of RiZhao are all negative, indiating that the three times adjustment of industrial has severe ontribution to the wholly eonomi growth. ()

4 Quantitative Eonomi Analysis of the Industrial Struture of Coastal City of Shandong Provine Besides, in different period, the eonomi growth of QingDao is inferior to Yantai, Weihai, but superior to Rizhao during to, demonstrating the three times effetive adjustment of industrial has ontribute lot to the eonomi growth. Thirdly, the influene on the regional eonomi growth of the geographi onditions or industrial ompetitiveness an be refleted from the analysis on the ompetitive deviation omponent. To be speifi, the value of ompetitive deviation omponent for QingDao from to, YanTai from to, WeiHai from to, and RiZhao to are all negative showing the needs to strengthen the adjustment of industrial struture, espeially in the third in these ities. In other researh phase, the value of ompetitive deviation omponent for most oastal ities are positive, indiating the great impat on total amount of the eonomi. Next, from the year of to, the result of strutural is positive, with negative value of ompetitive deviation omponent, showing the influene of industrial struture adjustment whih is not ompetitive. Speifially speaking, the value of strutural from to for YanTai, WeiHai, and RiZhao, to for WeiHai, and RiZhao, to for YanTai,and RiZhao, are all negative with positive ompetitive deviation omponent. It proves that the eonomial growth are outpaed by fators besides strutural, and ompetitiveness are the key. During the researh, both the value for the strutural and ompetitive deviation omponent for YanTai to, WeiHai to, and RiZhao to is not advantageous. The weak tehnologial foundation, slow pae of development, unreasonable in industrial struture all restrain the progress of eonomial development. Lastly, get to the struture in detail. The strutures of eonomi growth for Qingdao are mainly in aordane with the " the third the first the seond " rule while the trend of ompetitiveness tends to be " the third the seond the first ", indiating that the industrial struture is more reasonable. The struture for Yantai develops from the mode of" the first the seond the third," to "the seond the first the third " while the development trend of ompetitive follows the module " the seond the third the first ", demonstrating the unreasonable struture whih needs to be adjusted. Situation of strutures of eonomi growth ontributing to eonomial development in Weihai abides by and hanges from the model "the first the seond the third," to " the first the third the seond " to "the seond the third the first ",while the law of ompetitive development is in aordane with the " the third the seond the first " to " the seond the third the first " and to " the third the first the seond," the law of development, indiating the unreasonable industrial struture.. Conlusions In onlusion, to ahieve further development, the four oastal ities must take ounter measures on the basis of their onrete onditions. Firstly, oordinating urban and rural eonomi development to enhane the harmony development of advantage as the breakthrough point. Through the government guidane, preferential poliy, intensive input, to promote the strategi adjustment of agriultural struture, develop the prim, strengthen the agriultural industrialization, realize polymerization of eonomy of the agriultural prodution, improve the effiieny of agriultural prodution, and ahieve the realization of marketization of the agriultural prodution, supply and sale.

5 Quantitative Eonomi Analysis of the Industrial Struture of Coastal City of Shandong Provine Table Result of industrial detail of Shandong oastal ity (Unit: million ) prima ry indus try Nij 6.6. Qingdao Yantai Weihai Rizhao tertia prima tertia Seond Seond Seond Seond ry ry terti prim ry prim terti indus indus indus try try try Dij Gij Nij Dij Gij. 6.4 Nij 4.. Dij. 4. Gij.. Nij Dij Gij..6 Nij Dij Gij Soure: China ity statistial yearbook, Seondly, applying the hightehnology and advaned appliable tehnology to transform traditional industries, taking the of Eletroni and eletrial, mahinery and equipment manufaturing, petroleum and hemial as the strategi advantage ones, to ultivate, and improve industrial ompetitiveness. Moreover, with the guidane of the sientifi onept of development, aelerating the development of the seond and the third, intensifying foreign investments, and developing modern, to realize the ombination of eonomi development and environmental protetion. Thirdly, to vigorously develop the terti, speed up the pae of industrial struture adjustment, finanial insurane, intermedi servies, modern logistis, and other urrently emerging servie as eduation, real estate, tourism, ommunity servie, and et. To sum up, only by adjusting and optimizing the industrial struture, an one narrow the gap between regional eonomi growths, and promote the regional eonomy development oordinately and rapidly.

6 4 Quantitative Eonomi Analysis of the Industrial Struture of Coastal City of Shandong Provine Referenes [] Cuigonghao, weiqingquan, henzongxing.regional Analysis and Planning[M], Beijing: Higher Eduation Press,.(in Chinese) [] Yangxuanliu, Analysis on the Effetiveness of struture in eonomi growth of Shaannxi Provine[J],Statistis and Information Forum,. (in Chinese) [] Yusuhui, Analysis on the Effetiveness of struture in eonomi growth[j], Soial sienes review,. (in Chinese) [4] China ity statistial yearbook,/ State statistis bureau ity soial eonomi investigation department[m], China statistial publishing press,. (in Chinese) [] China ity statistial yearbook,6/ State statistis bureau ity soial eonomi investigation department[m], China statistial publishing press,. (in Chinese) [6] China ity statistial yearbook,/ State statistis bureau ity soial eonomi investigation department[m], China statistial publishing press,. (in Chinese) [] China ity statistial yearbook,6/ State statistis bureau ity soial eonomi investigation department[m], China statistial publishing press,. (in Chinese) [] China ity statistial yearbook,/ State statistis bureau ity soial eonomi investigation department[m], China statistial publishing press,. (in Chinese) [] Zhuzhiming, libaihan, hendigui, the situation, the key and requirements of Shandong eonomi struture adjustment[j], Jinan finanial,. (in Chinese) [] Wei Wei et, Analysis of Comparative Advantage of Chinese Regional Eonomy[M], Beijing: Chinese Eonomi Press, Jun. 6.(in Chinese) [] Sun Nengli, Huangwenqing, Qu Xiang, Zhang Junbiao, Agriultural Struture in western China by Comparing with before and after CFFG Based on ShiftShare Method[M]. Chinese of population, resoures and environment,. This work is partially supported by plan 6 (6AAA6)

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