Analysis of phytoplankton bloom phenology by identification of Gaussian mixture for the period in the southern bight of the North Sea.
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1 Analysis of phytoplankton bloom phenology by identification of Gaussian mixture for the period in the southern bight of the North Sea. Lefebvre A. 1 and Poisson-Caillault E. 1,2 1 Ifremer, Laboratoire Environnement et Ressources, 150 quai Gambetta, 62200, Boulogne sur Mer, France. alain.lefebvre@ifremer.fr 2 Univ. Littoral Côte d Opale, LISIC - Laboratoire d'informatique Signal Image de la Côte d'opale, Calais, France. caillault@lisic.univ-littoral.fr
2 General context Phytoplankton: basis of all food chains in the sea and reflects the environmental status and water quality with consequences in socio-economic issues and human health (HAB). Species composition and relative abundance of algal groups are fundamental determinants of aquatic ecosystem structure and function. => Indicator (high reactivity) Main objectives Ecological succession in phytoplankton assemblages Phenology Modelling early warning system Development of standard operational procedures to monitor phytoplankton community structure in situ and in (near) real-time. Better assessment of the quality of marine waters and of the Ecological (MSFD) or Eutrophication Status (OSPAR)
3 Data Time-Series IGA Project : monitoring of nuclear power plant activities and consequences on the environment Location : Gravelines, southern bight of the North Sea Period : Sampling frequency : week Chlorophyll-a concentration Problem of missing data
4 Methodology: Data completion process - data time-alignment - Singleton missing data: simple mean t+1/t-1 - Reproductive period, Hole with size>3 no completion. - Non reproductive period or «no-phyto impact» Hole : completion by moving window average according to a fuzzy window membership. - Points near the missing data are more important. - Imputed data are a poor confidence in comparison with raw points. - Means of two pass : clockwise and counterclockwise process. Chlorophyll-a concentration Green : completed data
5 FULCRUM approach (Kromkamp & Van Engeland, 2010) Beginning of the bloom / max / end? CUSUM approach => general pattern, bloom potential, long-term trends and dynamics No general patterns and no successive Chl-a shape-profiles.
6 Seasonal, trend analysis & Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) => General pattern? => main frequencies? => How to identify recurrents events? No monotonic trend - Seasonal cycle of 52 weeks!! - no real mode under 26 weeks frequency!! Clustering of yearly series => Clustering to extract usual and rare events - Spectral clustering algorithm - Five patterns identified - 2 dominants patterns but not successive and not regular.
7 CUSUM approach Bloom quota? High amplitude, low duration equivalent to low amplitude, long duration?
8 Our final approach : identification of curves mixture by Expectation-Maximisation procedure (our first hypothesis : Gaussian mixture) Black : seasonal cycle (multiplicative) Pink : reconstructed model => 7 Gaussian curves within a seasonal pattern 1994 Number of Gaussians computed from reconstruction scores and no total overlap between Gaussians.
9 Main results 79 labels (~ Taxonomic Units) derived from an expert (manual) classification from Quadrige2 database Peak Date Sigma Date Range Date # G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 Peak date Range dates Sigma-dates Shannon index (min/median/ max) #m Taxon #m Taxon =95 % nbre cell/l
10 Main results Dominant species (95 % total cell/l) identifies by gaussian sigma-dates and occurring at least one year and ordered by emission probabilities(x)=(number of years, 1 by default) g1 Dominant species (95 % total cell/l) "Melosira + Paralia sulcata" (17), "Skeletonema costatum (4), "Thalassionema nitzschioides" (2), "Rhaphoneis + Delphineis", "Nitzschiaceae", "Phaeocystis" g2 "Phaeocystis" (18), "Guinardia + delicatula + flaccida" (2), "Thalassiosiraceae" (2), "Asterionella glacialis", "Thalassionema nitzschioides","rhizosolenia imbricata + styliformis", "Skeletonema costatum" g3 "Phaeocystis" (21), "Guinardia + delicatula + flaccida" (2), "Guinardia striata", "Chaetoceros", "Rhizosolenia imbricata + styliformis" g4 "Phaeocystis" (16), "Guinardia + delicatula + flaccida" (7), "Rhizosolenia imbricata + styliformis","pseudonitzschia seriata (= Nitzschia seriata)", "Protoctista" g5 "Rhizosolenia imbricata + styliformis" (6), "Leptocylindrus sp. + danicus + curvatus" (5), "Guinardia + delicatula + flaccida" (4),, "Chaetoceros socialis + radians" (3), "Phaeocystis", (2), "Chaetoceros" (2), "Dytilum + brightwellii", "Asterionella glacialis", "Rhizosolenia setigera + R. pungens",, "Leptocylindrus minimus" g6 "Leptocylindrus minimus"(4), "Leptocylindrus sp. + danicus + curvatus" (3), "Cryptophyceae"(3), "Rhizosolenia imbricata + styliformis"(3), "Chaetoceros socialis + radians"(2), "Chaetoceros"(2), "Dytilum + brightwellii", "Guinardia + delicatula + flaccida", "Asterionella glacialis", "Phaeocystis", "Pseudo-nitzschia delicatissima", "Protoctista","Eucampia + Climacodium + zodiacus", "Chaetoceros curvisetus + debilis + pseudocurvisetus" g7 "Melosira + Paralia sulcata"(13), "Pennales"(2),, "Skeletonema costatum"(2), "Plagiogramma"(2), "Achnanthes", "Thalassiosiraceae", "Thalassionema nitzschioides", "Guinardia striata", "Rhizosolenia imbricata + styliformis", "Chaetoceros socialis + radians".
11 Conclusions - Perspectives NEW: data fuzzy-completion + Gaussian mixture based an automated definition of the G number Strengths and weaknesses of «conventional» approaches vs our approach General Chlorophyll-a concentration dynamics explained by a 7 Gaussian model Yearly Chlorophyll-a concentration dynamics explained by a 5 to 14 Gaussian models Automated identification of diversity and richness indexes Automated identification of the most contributive taxonomic units for each period/state (G) Integration of environmental paramters => Habitat, Niche approach Initialization of an Hybrid Markov Model* => dynamics modelling and early warning system Implementation of an other type of curve mixture (Chi-2?) *HMM : see GDR Phycotox 2015 ; Rousseuw et al., 2014 DOI /JSTARS Volume 9 (issue 1), pp
12 Annex: List of the 79 labels (~ Taxonomic Units) derived from an expert (manual) classification from Quadrige2 database [1] "Achnanthes" [2] "Alexandrium" [3] "Amphidinium + Torodinium" [4] "Amphidinium+Torodinium" [5] "Amphora" [6] "Asterionella + Asterionellopsis + Asteroplanus + Formosa + Karianus" [7] "Asterionella glacialis" [8] "Baccillaria paxilifer" [9] "Bidulphia + TrigonumAlternans" [10] "Cerataulina + pelagica" [11] "Chaetoceros" [12] "Chaetoceros curvisetus + debilis + pseudocurvisetus" [13] "Chaetoceros danicus" [14] "Chaetoceros decipiens + lorenzianus" [15] "Chaetoceros didymus + didymus var. protuberans" [16] "Chaetoceros socialis + radians" [17] "Chlorophyceae" [18] "Ciliophora" [19] "Coscinodiscus + Stellarima" [20] "Crucigenia" [21] "Cryptophyceae" [22] "Dactyliosolen" [23] "Dictyochophyceae" [24] "Diploneis" [25] "Diplopsalis+Diplopelta+Diplopsalopsis+Zygabikodinium+Oblea" [26] "Dytilum + brightwellii" [27] "Eucampia + Climacodium + zodiacus" [28] "Euglena + Euglenoidea + Eutreptiella" [29] "Guinardia + delicatula + flaccida" [30] "Guinardia striata" [31] "Gymnodinium" [32] "Gyrodinium + spirale" [33] "Karenia mikimotoi" [34] "Karlodinium" [35] "Katodinium" [36] "Lauderia + annulata + Schroederella " [37] "Leptocylindrus minimus" [38] "Leptocylindrus sp. + danicus + curvatus" [39] "Melosira + Paralia sulcata" [40] "Meuniera membranacea + Stauroneis" [41] "Navicula + Fallacia + Haslea + Lyrella + Petroneis" [42] "Neoceratium furca + fusus + lineatum" [43] "New" [44] "Nitzschiaceae" [45] "Noctiluca scintillans" 12
13 [46] "Noctiluca scintillans " [47] "Odontella (all)" [65] "Protoperidinium + Peridinium +bipes" [48] "Others" [66] "Pseudo-nitzschia, complexe americana (americana + brasiliana)" [49] "OthersChlorophyceae" [67] "Pseudo-nitzschia delicatissima" [50] "OthersChrysophyceae" [68] "Pseudonitzschia seriata (= Nitzschia seriata)" [51] "OthersDiatoms" [69] "Pseudonitzschia sp. + multistriata" [52] "OthersDinoflagellata" [70] "Rhaphoneis + Delphineis" [53] "OthersPrymnesiophyceae" [71] "Rhizosolenia" [54] "OthersRaphido" [72] "Rhizosolenia imbricata + styliformis" [55] "Pennales" [73] "Rhizosolenia setigera + R. pungens" [56] "Phaeocystis" [74] "Scenedesmus" [57] "Plagiogramma" [75] "Scrippsiella + Ensiculifera + Pentapharsodinium + Bysmatrum" [58] "Pleurobrachia" [76] "Skeletonema costatum" [59] "Pleurosigma sp. + Gyrosigma sp." [77] "Thalassionema nitzschioides" [60] "Polykrikos" [78] "Thalassiosiraceae" [61] "Porosira" [79] "Triceraitum + favus" [62] "Proboscia indica" [63] "Prorocentrum sp. + micans + P. arcuatum + P. gibbosum + P. triestinum" [64] "Protoctista" 13
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