Predicting Seasonal Tornado Activity
|
|
- Everett Matthews
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Predicting Seasonal Tornado Activity James B. Elsner Department of Geography, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL, USA January 11, 2016 AMS Annual Meeting New Orleans, LA Tyler Fricker, Holly M. Widen, Thomas H. Jagger, Victor Mesev
2 Motivation Climate models do not predict tornadoes Models can be used to predict necessary conditions But necessary does not imply sufficient Needed are evidence-based analysis and models Establish a baseline level of skill then a forecast model Outline: Spatial model (county level) Space-time model (grid level)
3 Climate effects on tornadoes vary spatially Annual Number of Tornadoes [ ] El Nino Neutral La Nina Kansas Tennessee
4 Reliability of tornado records vary over time Systematic Tabulation of Tornado Data Tornado Watch and Warning Program Tornado Spotter Network Fujita Scale Discovery of Microbursts Doppler Radar Mobile Radar Enhanced Fujita Scale Year
5 Annual number of tornado reports (Kansas) 200 Number of EF0+ Tornadoes Year
6 Cheyenne Rawlins Decatur Norton Phillips Smith Jewell Republic Washington Marshall Brown Nemaha Doniphan Sherman Thomas Cloud Atchison Sheridan Graham Rooks Osborne Mitchell Clay Pottawatomie Jackson Riley Jefferson Leavenworth Ottawa Wyandott Wallace Logan Lincoln Gove Shawnee Trego Ellis Geary Russell Wabaunsee Dickinson Douglas Johnson Saline Ellsworth Morris Greeley Osage Wichita Scott Lane Ness Rush Franklin Miami Barton Lyon Rice McPherson Marion Chase Pawnee Coffey Anderson Linn Hamilton Kearny Finney Hodgeman Stafford Harvey Edwards Reno GreenwoodWoodson Allen Gray Bourbon Ford Butler Stanton Grant Haskell Pratt Sedgwick Kiowa Kingman Wilson Neosho Crawford Elk Morton Stevens Seward Meade Clark Comanche Barber Harper Sumner Cowley Chautauqua MontgomeryLabette Cherokee Population Density [persons per square km]
7 Number of EF0+ Tornadoes ( )
8 Number of EF0+ Tornado Days ( )
9 Observed Poisson 30 Number of Counties Number of Tornadoes
10 The number of tornado reports in each cell (T s ) is assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution with mean (µ s ) T s µ s, r s NegBin(µ s, r s ) µ s = A s exp(ν s ) ν s = β 0 + β 1 lpd s + β 2 (t t 0 ) + β 3 lpd s (t t 0 ) + u s + v t r s = A s n where NegBin(µ s, r s ) indicates that the conditional tornado counts (T s µ s, r s ) are described by a negative binomial distribution with mean µ s and size r s, lpd s represents the base two logarithm of the population density during 2012 for each county, and t 0 is the base year set to 1991 (middle year of the record).
11 The spatially correlated random effects u s follows an intrinsic Besag formulation with a sum-to-zero constraint. u i {u j,j i, τ} N 1 1 u j, τ, m i m i where N is the normal distribution with mean 1/m i i j u j and variance 1/m i 1/τ where m i is the number of neighbors of cell i and τ is the precision; i j indicates cells i and j are neighbors. Neighboring cells are determined by contiguity (queen s rule). The annual uncorrelated random effect, v t, is modeled as a sequence of normally distributed random variables, with mean zero and variance 1/τ. i j
12 Number of EF0+ Tornadoes ( )
13 Expected Annual Per County Tornado (EF0+) Rate
14 Tornado (EF0+) Occurrence Rate [% Difference from Statewide Avg]
15 Oklahoma km Number of EF0+ Tornadoes ( )
16 0 100 km Expected Annual Tornado (EF0+) Rate
17 A space-time model
18 44 N 42 N 40 N 38 N 36 N 34 N 32 N N 42 N 40 N 38 N 36 N 34 N 32 N W 90 W 85 W 100 W 90 W 85 W Number of Tornadoes
19 A B 44 N 44 N 42 N 42 N 40 N 40 N 38 N 38 N 36 N 36 N 34 N 34 N 32 N 32 N 100 W 95 W 90 W 85 W 100 W 95 W 90 W 85 W ENSO Effect on Tornadoes [% Change in Rate/S.D. Increase in ENSO Index] Signficance Level
20 Annual Tennessee Tornado Fatalities by ENSO Phase [ ] El Nino Neutral La Nina 10 1
21 Other predictors PNA Global wind oscillation NAO
22 Government efforts toward seasonal prediction of severe weather in the United States Last March scientists held a workshop in D.C. to assess the feasibility of developing severe weather outlooks on sub-seasonal & seasonal timescales. Two notable recommendations were made: 1. Experimental seasonal weather outlook will be issued sometime this spring, and 2. Research activities for improving outlooks should be supported.
How To Build a Seasonal Tornado Model
How To Build a Seasonal Tornado Model James B. Elsner (@JBElsner) Department of Geography, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL March 10, 2016 SC&C Workshop, Columbia University, New York, NY Help:
More informationHouse Health and Human Services Committee. From: Kansas Psychiatric Society. Re: Support for Senate Bill 32. Date: March 8, 2017
To: House Health and Human Services Committee From: Kansas Psychiatric Society Re: Support for Senate Bill 32 Date: March 8, 2017 Representative Hawkins and members of the House Health and Human Services
More informationbin/broker.exe 1/2
10/8/2015 SAS Output KANSAS HIGHER EDUCATION ENROLLMENT REPORT Fall 2015 Reporting Institution: Washburn U Date Report Printed: Thursday, October 8, 2015 Table A Enrollment: Residency by Attendance Status
More information~ ~ ( SlliOd3li lvonnv tsli33ni9n3. A1NOO) do AliVWWOS STOZ
. ~----------------------------~ SlliOd3li lvonnv tsli33ni9n3 A1NOO) do AliVWWOS STOZ ~----------------------------~ CONTENTS Title Page Foreword 2 Map of Kansas with KDOT Districts 3 County Road System
More informationJanuary 2002 Kansas Water Levels and Data Related to Water Level Changes
Kansas Geological Survey Technical Series 19 January 2 Kansas Water Levels and Data Related to Water Level Changes by John J. Woods and Marios A. Sophocleous January 4 The Kansas Geological Survey compiled
More informationFY 2019 Capital Improvement (Bond and Interest) State Aid Payments
D0101 Neosho Erie 0 0 610,790 0 0 0 0 0 0 D0102 Gray Cimarron-Ensign 0 0 59,126 0 0 0 0 0 15,717 D0103 Cheyenne Cheylin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 D0105 Rawlins Rawlins County 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 D0106 Ness Western
More informationKansas Legislative Research Department June 24, 2016
New Proposal SF16-169 SF16-169 SF16-167 LOB from Block 101 Neosho Erie-Galesburg 35,894 42,938 0 78,832 102 Gray Cimmaron-Ensign (77,501) 18,454 0 (59,047) 103 Cheyenne Cheylin 0 0 0 0 105 Rawlins Rawlins
More informationJanuary 2000 Kansas Water Levels and Data Related to Water-level Changes
Kansas Geological Survey Technical Series 15 January 2000 Kansas Water Levels and Data Related to Water-level Changes John J. Woods, Jeffrey A. Schloss, and P. Allen Macfarlane Kansas Geological Survey
More informationThis chapter is divided into four parts: hazard identification, hazard profiles, vulnerability assessment, and summary of key issues:
3 RISK ASSESSMENT 44 CFR Requirement 201.6(c)(2): [The plan shall include] A risk assessment that provides the factual basis for activities proposed in the strategy to reduce losses from identified hazards.
More informationSpatial and Temporal Analysis of Childhood Blood Lead Levels Across Kansas: Gabriel J. Kenne; Henri Menager, MPH
Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Childhood Blood Lead Levels Across Kansas: 2006-2011 Gabriel J. Kenne; Henri Menager, MPH Table of Contents Abstract... 1 Introduction... 2 Methods... 5 Data Acquisition...
More informationElevation and ickness of the Ordovician Arbuckle Group in Oklahoma and Surrounding States
Oklahoma Geological Survey Jeremy Boak, Director Open-File Report 2-218 Elevation and ickness of the Ordovician Arbuckle Group in Oklahoma and Surrounding States January 218 Oklahoma Geological Survey
More informationLETTING: Page 1 of 5 KANSAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION KA KA CONTRACT PROPOSAL
05-24-18 LETTING: 06-20-18 Page 1 of 5 KANSAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION 518066484 106 KA 4909-01 106 KA 4909-01 CONTRACT PROPOSAL 1. The Secretary of Transportation of the State of Kansas [Secretary]
More informationThe Kansas Regional Coordinate System
Project Report The Kansas Regional Coordinate System A Statewide Multiple-Zone Low-Distortion Projection Coordinate System for the State of Kansas Prepared for: Kansas Department of Transportation Eisenhower
More informationLETTING: Page 1 of 5 KANSAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION KA KA CONTRACT PROPOSAL
06-18-18 LETTING: 07-18-18 Page 1 of 5 KANSAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION 518076252 106 KA 4959-01 106 KA 4959-01 CONTRACT PROPOSAL 1. The Secretary of Transportation of the State of Kansas [Secretary]
More informationRegional Trends in Coalbed Gas Composition and Thermal Maturation in Eastern Kansas: Implications for Predicting Quality and Location of Coalbed Gas
Regional Trends in Coalbed Gas Composition and Thermal Maturation in Eastern Kansas: Implications for Predicting Quality and Location of Coalbed Gas K. David Newell and L. Michael Magnuson Kansas Geological
More informationLETTING: Page 1 of 5 KANSAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION K KA K KA CONTRACT PROPOSAL
08-16-16 LETTING: 09-21-16 Page 1 of 5 KANSAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION 516096383 K383-074 KA 4399-01 K383-074 KA 4399-01 CONTRACT PROPOSAL 1. The Secretary of Transportation of the State of Kansas
More informationK M K M CONTRACT PROPOSAL. DOT Form No. 202 Rev. 09/18
Contract ID: 518106313 Kansas Department of Transportation Project No. K018-082 M 0062-01 Contract No. 518106313 K018-082 M 0062-01 K018-082 M 0062-01 CONTRACT PROPOSAL DOT Form No. 202 Rev. 09/18 1. The
More informationMethodology. Data are gathered by one of three ways:
Methodology The Kansas Bureau of Investigation (KBI) compiled the following 2010 1 statistical crime report based on data submitted by local and state law enforcement agencies prior to 5/30/2011. The data
More informationExamples of extreme event modeling in tornado and hurricane research
Examples of extreme event modeling in tornado and hurricane research James B. Elsner Twitter: @JBElsner Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL June 15, 2015 Help: Thomas H. Jagger Are Tornadoes More
More informationSTATISTICAL MODELS FOR PREDICTING TORNADO RATES: CASE STUDIES FROM OKLAHOMA AND THE MID SOUTH USA
James B. Elsner, et al., Int. J. of Safety and Security Eng., Vol. 6, No. 1 (2016) 1 9 STATISTICAL MODELS FOR PREDICTING TORNADO RATES: CASE STUDIES FROM OKLAHOMA AND THE MID SOUTH USA JAMES B. ELSNER,
More information106 M M CONTRACT PROPOSAL. DOT Form No. 202 Rev. 09/18
Letting 12/12/2018 Kansas Department of Transportation Project No. 106 M 0069-01 Contract No. 518126363 Contract ID: 518126363 106 M 0069-01 106 M 0069-01 CONTRACT PROPOSAL DOT Form No. 202 Rev. 09/18
More informationWater And The Flint Hills
Kansas State University Libraries New Prairie Press Symphony in the Flint Hills Field Journal 2010 Ranching on the Tallgrass Prairie (Marty White, Editor) Water And The Flint Hills Rex Buchanan Bob Sawin
More informationLETTING: Page 1 of 5 KANSAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION K KA K KA CONTRACT PROPOSAL
02-28-18 LETTING: 03-21-18 Page 1 of 5 KANSAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION 518036696 K025-102 KA 4827-01 K025-102 KA 4827-01 CONTRACT PROPOSAL 1. The Secretary of Transportation of the State of Kansas
More informationU081B-059 KA U081B-059 KA CONTRACT PROPOSAL. DOT Form No. 202 Rev. 09/18
Contract ID: 518106242 Kansas Department of Transportation Project No. U081B-059 KA 5031-01 Contract No. 518106242 U081B-059 KA 5031-01 U081B-059 KA 5031-01 CONTRACT PROPOSAL DOT Form No. 202 Rev. 09/18
More information2017 KANSAS SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK. MARCH 5-11th TORNADO SAFETY DRILL Tuesday, March 7th, am CST/9am MST INFORMATION PACKET
2017 KANSAS SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK MARCH 5-11th 2017 TORNADO SAFETY DRILL Tuesday, March 7th, 2017 10am CST/9am MST INFORMATION PACKET National Weather Service Table of Contents Page Number 2016
More informationDaily Operations Briefing Thursday, March 9, :30 a.m. EST
Daily Operations Briefing Thursday, March 9, 2017 8:30 a.m. EST Significant Activity Mar 8-9 Significant Events: None Significant Weather: Severe thunderstorms possible Central Plains to Middle/Lower Mississippi
More informationHerbicide Resistance in Kochia, Horseweed and Ragweed. Phil Stahlman Weed Scientist Kansas State University Agricultural Research Center-Hays
Herbicide Resistance in Kochia, Horseweed and Ragweed Phil Stahlman Weed Scientist Kansas State University Agricultural Research Center-Hays Kochia Kochia scoparia aka fireweed, burningbush, tumble weed,
More informationFY 2019 Preliminary Title IIA Allocations
101 ERIE 33,549 0 33,549 102 CIMARRON ENSIGN 17,454 0 17,454 103 CHEYLIN 8,093 0 8,093 105 RAWLINS COUNTY 10,323 0 10,323 106 WESTERN PLAINS 6,076 0 6,076 107 ROCK HILLS 15,004 0 15,004 108 WASHINGTON
More informationKDOT Regional Transit Business Model Implementation
KDOT Regional Transit Business Model Implementation Guidelines for Transitioning to the New CTD Boundaries KDOT Office of Public Transportation - 2015 April 21, 2015 - FINAL Table of Contents Introduction...
More informationTechnical Appendix D: School District Characteristics
Technical Appendix D: School District Characteristics Drawing from the findings discussed in Chapter 5 of this report, below is a list of each school district in Kansas that had sufficient data to generate
More informationFY 2019 Final Title IVA Allocations
101 ERIE 16,804 0 16,804 102 CIMARRON ENSIGN 13,758 0 13,758 103 CHEYLIN 11,667 0 11,667 105 RAWLINS COUNTY 12,162 0 12,162 106 WESTERN PLAINS 11,177 0 11,177 107 ROCK HILLS 12,895 0 12,895 108 WASHINGTON
More informationCourt Appointed Host Homes
Court Appointed Host Homes Requests of $5,000 or less Mrs Peggy Pratt 1011 Fort St Hays, KS 67601 O: 785-628-6244 M: 785-470-7038 Mrs Tanya Thomas 1011 Fort St Hays, KS 67601 Tanya.Thomas@ks.gov O: 785-628-6244
More informationKANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY February 2015
KANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY February 2015 Extended Cold Despite some record warm readings at a few locations, February was characterized by colder than normal conditions. This was particularly true during the
More informationEl Niño Update Impacts on Florida
Current Issues in Emergency Management (CIEM) Sessions 1 &2 October 12 th and 26 th, 2006 Florida Division of Emergency Management Tallahassee, Florida El Niño Update Impacts on Florida Bart Hagemeyer
More informationTHE SYNERGY OF HISTORY AND EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION FOR ENHANCED DROUGHT AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT
THE SYNERGY OF HISTORY AND EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION FOR ENHANCED DROUGHT AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT Kamran Emami kkemami@gmail.com Workshop on History of water crisis, old and recent issues (WG HIST) 1 Presentation
More information506 Howard St. PO Box 22 Effingham, KS Phone: (913) Fax: (913)
506 Howard St. PO Box 22 Effingham, KS 66023-0022 Phone: (913) 833-4025 Fax: (913) 833-2960 February 7, 2013 Dear Citizens, According to the enclosed information packet from the National Weather Service,
More informationMO PUBL 4YR 2090 Missouri State University SUBTOTAL-MO
Report ID: USSR8072-V3 Page No. 1 Jurisdiction: ON-CAMPUS IL American Intercontinental Universit 0 0 1 0 Northern Illinois University 0 0 4 0 Southern Illinois Univ - Edwardsvil 2 0 2 0 Southern Illinois
More informationThe Integrated Warning Partnership: Opportunities for Improved Community-Level Benefits. Dale Morris Oklahoma Climatological Survey April 18, 2006
The Integrated Warning Partnership: Opportunities for Improved Community-Level Benefits Dale Morris Oklahoma Climatological Survey April 18, 2006 My Personal Motivation Sunday Evening, September 5, 1992
More information3 RISK ASSESSMENT. This chapter is divided into three parts: hazard identification, hazard profiles, and vulnerability assessment:
3 RISK ASSESSMENT 44 CFR Requirement 201.6(c)(2): [The plan shall include] A risk assessment that provides the factual basis for activities proposed in the strategy to reduce losses from identified hazards.
More informationAppendix A Oklahoma Waterbody Identification (WBID) System
Appendix A Oklahoma Waterbody Identification (WBID) System Waterbody identification (WBID) numbers are established based on a waterbody s location in the State s Water Quality Management Plan. WBIDs are
More informationLa Niña impacts on global seasonal weather anomalies: The OLR perspective. Andrew Chiodi and Ed Harrison
La Niña impacts on global seasonal weather anomalies: The OLR perspective Andrew Chiodi and Ed Harrison Outline Motivation Impacts of the El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal weather anomalies
More informationThursday, March 19, 2015 Issued: 1:00pm CDT
Thursday, March 19, 2015 Issued: 1:00pm CDT Prepared by: Kurt Van Speybroeck/Victor Murphy/David Brown 817-978-1100 x 147 National Weather Service Southern Region Headquarters Regional Operations Center
More informationNebraska Juvenile Justice System Statistical Annual Report 2015
ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE OF THE COURTS AND PROBATION January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015 Nebraska Juvenile Justice System Statistical Annual Report 2015 in Compliance with Nebraska Revised Statute 24-1007
More informationAre Tornadoes Getting Stronger?
Are Getting Stronger? Department of Geography, Florida State University Thomas Jagger, Ian Elsner Categorical Scale for Tornado Intensity The EF damage scale to rate tornado intensity is categorical. An
More informationKANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY June 2017
KANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY June 2017 Uneven rainfall The wet May gave way to uneven rainfall in June. The statewide average precipitation was 3.23 inches or 74 percent of normal. The East Central and West
More informationLETTING: Page 1 of 5 KANSAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION U KA U KA CONTRACT PROPOSAL
11-21-17 LETTING: 12-13-17 Page 1 of 5 KANSAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION 517126424 U169-001 KA 4718-01 U169-001 KA 4718-01 CONTRACT PROPOSAL 1. The Secretary of Transportation of the State of Kansas
More informationKANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY October 2016
KANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY October 2016 Record warmth Temperatures continued the warmer than normal pattern through much of October. The state-wide average temperature was 60.9 of, or 5.6 degrees warmer than
More informationReconstructing Late Cenozoic Stream Gradients from High-level Chert Gravels in Central Eastern Kansas
Reconstructing Late Cenozoic Stream Gradients from High-level Chert Gravels, Central Eastern Kansas 1 Reconstructing Late Cenozoic Stream Gradients from High-level Chert Gravels in Central Eastern Kansas
More informationFire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change. Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015
Fire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015 Outline Weather and Fire Risk Environmental conditions leading to
More informationSearch and Discovery Article #80341 (2013)** Posted November 25, 2013
Niobrara Source Rock Maturity in the Denver Basin: A Study of Differential Heating and Tectonics on Petroleum Prospectivity Using Programmed Pyrolysis* David J. Thul 1,2 and Steve Sonnenberg 2 Search and
More informationENSO and U.S. severe convective storm activity
ENSO and U.S. severe convective storm activity Michael K. Tippett Columbia University Willis Research Network Autumn meeting Nov 1, 2017 Summary What is ENSO? Unusual warming or cooling of tropical Pacific
More informationThe U. S. Winter Outlook
The 2018-2019 U. S. Winter Outlook Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center Mike.Halpert@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Outline About the Seasonal Outlook Review of 2017-18 U. S.
More informationU KA U KA CONTRACT PROPOSAL. DOT Form No. 202 Rev. 09/18
Letting 12/12/2018 Kansas Department of Transportation Project No. U075-063 KA 5107-01 Contract No. 518126424 Contract ID: 518126424 U075-063 KA 5107-01 U075-063 KA 5107-01 CONTRACT PROPOSAL DOT Form No.
More informationKANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY March 2018
KANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY March 2018 Another Dry Month The Southwest Division again missed out on most of the precipitation during March. State-wide the average precipitation was 0.97 inches or 41 percent
More informationKANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY June 2016
KANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY June 2016 Summer arrives early June made a quick turn-around with both temperature and precipitation in most of the state. Only the Southwest Division averaged above normal precipitation
More informationKANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY May 2018
KANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY May 2018 From Cold to Hot May came close to setting the record as the hottest since 1895. The state-wide average temperature for the month was 70.6 o F. This was 7.2 degrees warmer
More informationPredicting Spring Tornado Activity in the Central Great Plains by 1 March
JANUARY 2014 E L S N E R A N D W I D E N 259 Predicting Spring Tornado Activity in the Central Great Plains by 1 March JAMES B. ELSNER AND HOLLY M. WIDEN The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida
More informationPRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response
PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2014 - RMS Event Response 2014 SEASON OUTLOOK The 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season saw the fewest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin
More informationInvasive Plants Watch List: 2018
Invasive Plants Watch List: 2018 These lists were developed to provide a more region-based list of invasive plants to be on the watch for. Counties were divided up into ecoregions based on the Nebraska
More informationKANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY February 2017
KANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY February 2017 Warm and dry February was much warmer and drier than normal. The state-wide average temperature was 41.9 o F, which is 7.9 degrees warmer than normal. This places it
More informationIC ARTICLE 19. DESCRIBING REAL PROPERTY; INDIANA COORDINATE SYSTEM. IC Chapter 1. Designation of Indiana Coordinate System; Zones
IC 32-19 ARTICLE 19. DESCRIBING REAL PROPERTY; INDIANA COORDINATE SYSTEM IC 32-19-1 Chapter 1. Designation of Indiana Coordinate System; Zones IC 32-19-1-1 Designation of systems Sec. 1. The systems of
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Date issued: Jan 26, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr).
More informationA Spatial Point Process Model for Violent Tornado Occurrence in the US Great Plains
A Spatial Point Process Model for Violent Tornado Occurrence in the US Great Plains James B. Elsner, Richard J. Murnane, Thomas H. Jagger & Holly M. Widen Mathematical Geosciences ISSN 1874-8961 Volume
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 25, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 25, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales sroot@weatherbank.com MARCH 2016 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The March
More informationClimate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)
Forecast of 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Activity April 5, 2018 Summary CFAN s inaugural April seasonal forecast for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is based on systematic interactions among ENSO, stratospheric
More informationKANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY January 2018
KANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY January 2018 Some welcome moisture After an extended period with little to no moisture, parts of Kansas recorded some significant precipitation. At Tribune, a small snow event on
More informationAn ENSO-Neutral Winter
An ENSO-Neutral Winter This issue of the Blue Water Outlook newsletter is devoted towards my thoughts on the long range outlook for winter. You will see that I take a comprehensive approach to this outlook
More informationFire Weather Monitoring and Predictability in the Southeast
Fire Weather Monitoring and Predictability in the Southeast Corey Davis October 9, 2014 Photo: Pains Bay fire in 2011 (courtesy Donnie Harris, NCFWS) Outline Fire risk monitoring Fire risk climatology
More informationClimate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
More informationJP4.17 TORNADO AND SEVERE WEATHER CLIMATOLOGY AND PREDICTABILITY BY ENSO PHASE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.: A COMPOSITING STUDY
JP4.17 TORNADO AND SEVERE WEATHER CLIMATOLOGY AND PREDICTABILITY BY ENSO PHASE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.: A COMPOSITING STUDY Barbara E. Mayes *1 NOAA/NWS WFO Quad Cities IA/IL, Davenport, Iowa Craig Cogil
More information2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response
2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2013 - RMS Cat Response Season Outlook At the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, seasonal forecasts
More informationMAPPING THE RAINFALL EVENT FOR STORMWATER QUALITY CONTROL
Report No. K-TRAN: KU-03-1 FINAL REPORT MAPPING THE RAINFALL EVENT FOR STORMWATER QUALITY CONTROL C. Bryan Young The University of Kansas Lawrence, Kansas JULY 2006 K-TRAN A COOPERATIVE TRANSPORTATION
More informationThe U. S. Winter Outlook
The 2017-2018 U. S. Winter Outlook Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center Mike.Halpert@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Outline About the Seasonal Outlook Review of 2016-17 U. S.
More informationLong and Short-Term Views
RESEARCH ARTICLE Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views James B. Elsner*, Thomas H. Jagger, Tyler Fricker Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee,
More informationKANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY April 2017
KANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY April 2017 Epic Blizzard While much of the month was warmer than normal, the last week brought a return to cold, wintery weather in the western third of the state, and cold rainy
More informationDemocratic Candidates Hillary Clinton
Democratic Candidates Hillary Clinton Henry Hewes Roque "Rocky" Bernie Sanders Keith Judd Willie L. Wilson Martin J. O'Malley John Wolfe Jon Adams De La Fuente CD 1 St. Louis 51198 69 26 31819 19 34 43
More informationNorth Carolina Climate January 2012
North Carolina Climate January 2012 Online: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/office/newsletters North Carolina Climate, the monthly newsletter of the State Climate Office of NC, covers information on experimental
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018 Date issued: Oct 26, 2017 1. Overview The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues to develop towards a La Niña state, and is expected to be in at
More informationFY 2006 County Budget Summary Adopted Budget Summary 4/20/05
Revenues Gross Delinquent Taxes Credits Net Current Delinquent Taxes Penalties, Interest Other Taxes/ Intergovernmental Licenses Charges Use of Money Property Taxes From Current Year to Taxpayers Property
More informationThe Marmaton of Western Kansas and Eastern Colorado SIPES Luncheon January 28, 2016
The Marmaton of Western Kansas and Eastern Colorado SIPES Luncheon January 28, 2016 Presentation by: Jim Milne, Geologist Ancient Oceans Energy, Ltd. Outline Where are the Marmaton Fields? Production Expectations
More informationThe increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones
The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones James B. Elsner Department of Geography, Florida State University Tallahassee, Florida Corresponding author address: Dept. of Geography, The
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an
More information2011 National Seasonal Assessment Workshop for the Eastern, Southern, & Southwest Geographic Areas
2011 National Seasonal Assessment Workshop for the Eastern, Southern, & Southwest Geographic Areas On January 11-13, 2011, wildland fire, weather, and climate met virtually for the ninth annual National
More informationSeasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections
Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections Doug Smith Walter Orr Roberts memorial lecture, 9 th June 2015 Contents Motivation Practical issues
More informationVisibility network of United States hurricanes
Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L16702, doi:10.1029/2009gl039129, 2009 Visibility network of United States hurricanes J. B. Elsner, 1 T. H. Jagger, 1 and E. A. Fogarty
More informationAssessment of strategies to project U.S. landfalling hurricanes. Judith Curry
Assessment of strategies to project U.S. landfalling hurricanes Judith Curry Overview Uncertainties in historical landfall data base Impact of modes of natural climate variability Impact of global warming
More informationEvaluating a Genesis Potential Index with Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) By: Kieran Bhatia
Evaluating a Genesis Potential Index with Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) By: Kieran Bhatia I. Introduction To assess the impact of large-scale environmental conditions on tropical cyclone
More informationPossible Applications of Deep Neural Networks in Climate and Weather. David M. Hall Assistant Research Professor Dept. Computer Science, CU Boulder
Possible Applications of Deep Neural Networks in Climate and Weather David M. Hall Assistant Research Professor Dept. Computer Science, CU Boulder Quick overview of climate and weather models Weather models
More informationCurrent Climate Science and Climate Scenarios for Florida
Current Climate Science and Climate Scenarios for Florida Daniel Bader and Vivien Gornitz Water Utilities and Climate Change Workshop Palm Beach County Water Utilities/ Water Research Foundation June 10,
More informationToward the Development of Severe Weather Outlooks. Scott Weaver NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Toward the Development of Severe Weather Outlooks Scott Weaver NOAA Climate Prediction Center 2011 Tornadoes 6 Events $27.7 Billion 539 Fatalities Community White Paper & NOAA Fact Sheet Advancing the
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016
Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Date: Dec 17, 2015 1. Advisory Most models are showing the continuation of a strong El-Niño episode towards the latesummer season with the expectation to start
More informationHere s what a weak El Nino usually brings to the nation with temperatures:
Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2018-2019. El Nino / La Nina: When looking
More informationDISTRIBUTION OF FERTILIZER SALES
DISTRIBUTION OF FERTILIZER SALES IN KENTUCKY Annual Report Fertilizer Year 2012 July 2011 June 2012 An Equal Opportunity University Agricultural Experimental Station Division of Regulatory Services Lexington,
More informationKS PUBL 4YR Kansas State University Pittsburg State University SUBTOTAL-KS
Report ID: USSR8072-V3 Page No. 1 Jurisdiction: ON-CAMPUS IL PUBL TCH DeVry University Addison 1 0 0 0 Eastern Illinois University 1 0 0 0 Illinois State University 0 0 2 0 Northern Illinois University
More informationEffect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the number of leaching rain events in Florida and implications on nutrient management
Effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the number of leaching rain events in Florida and implications on nutrient management C. Fraisse 1, Z. Hu 1, E. H. Simonne 2 May 21, 2008 Apopka, Florida
More informationContemporary Challenges in Short-Term Climate Forecasting. David DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center
Contemporary Challenges in Short-Term Climate Forecasting David DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center 1 Outline Commercial: NOAA Administrator s Award for Decisions Support Services Associated with
More informationpresented by: Latest update: 11 January 2018
Seasonal forecasts presented by: Latest update: 11 January 2018 The seasonal forecasts presented here by Seasonal Forecast Worx are based on forecast output of the coupled ocean-atmosphere models administered
More informationRelative importance of the tropics, internal variability, and Arctic amplification on midlatitude climate and weather
Relative importance of the tropics, internal variability, and Arctic amplification on midlatitude climate and weather Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center College Park, Maryland, USA Workshop on Arctic
More informationHail and the Climate System: Large Scale Environment Relationships for the Continental United States
Hail and the Climate System: Large Scale Environment Relationships for the Continental United States 1979-2012 John T. Allen jallen@iri.columbia.edu Co-author: Michael K. Tippett WWOSC 2014, Thursday August
More informationClimate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
More information