SI Appendix Model Flow Chart of Dog-Human Rabies Transmission

Transcription

1 Appenx Moel Flow Cat of Dog-Huan abes Tanssson Aea epenent enstes of te og an uan populatons wee assue an ntal alues calculate by usng a suface fo te stuy aea of Djaéna of 700 k 2. Te ntal nube of expose ogs ( ) was unknown an ftte n te oel. Te ntal conton fo te nube of ab ogs ( ) pe k 2 was estate usng te aeage nube of te ecoe ab ogs oe te stuy peo. Te ntal nube of unze ogs ( ) was set to zeo. We consee a ensty epenent eat ate,, fo all copatents of te og populaton (susceptble, expose, ab an unze ogs), wee ( ) s te total og populaton an s gen by te ffeence between te og bt ate (b ) an otalty ate ( ), e by te cayng capacty (κ) (equaton 5, appenx 2). Te cayng capacty of te ogs, (κ), pe k 2 s assue to be 33.6 ogs/k 2 (estate fo te ntal og populaton an te stuy aea). xpose ogs tat o not eelop clncal abes ae consee as abotely expose ( (1- ) ). (1/ ) weeks s te ncubaton peo of te sease an ( ) s te sk of clncal outcoe n ogs (K. Hapson, pesonal councaton). Loss of og accnaton unty (λ ) s base on (15)an assues a 80% potecte unty at 6 onts an 7% potecte unty at 12 onts post accnaton. Fo te ntal nube of te weekly expose uans pe k 2 ( ), te aeage oe te wole obseaton peo was use. Te ensty of clncally ab uans ( ) was assue to be zeo at te begnnng of te sulaton. Te paaetes 2 to 5 epesent te pobabltes of bte njuy at ffeent boy locatons (9), an paaetes 6 to 9 ae te pobabltes of eelopng abes followng te bte of a ab og (9). Te ate of uan clncal abes eelopent, gen exposue, was gen by te su of te pouct of bte pobabltes at patcula pats of te boy tes te pobablty of eelopng abes afte ts bte e by te especte ncubaton peo ( 2*6/ ea 3*7/ a 4*8/ tunk 5*9/ ), wee ea, a, tunk, an ae te ean ncubaton peos of abes afte a bte at ffeent boy locatons (9). Abote exposue n uans was epesente by (2*(1-6)/ ea 3*(1-7)/ a 4*(1-8)/ tunk 5*(1-9)/ ). Te uan clncal abes otalty ate, ( ) was assue to be 1 pe week (9). unze uans ( ) (ntal alue 0) epesent ete pesons wt post-exposue teatent () o popylactc accnaton. accnaton coeage was epesente by 10, usng an analogous notaton to Cleaelan (9). opylactc accnaton of uans ( ) s aely pefoe n Djaéna but s ecoene by WHO une patcula ccustances (35). Altoug te uan accnaton ate (α ) an post exposue teatent ate ( 10) ae not been ae use of n ts cuent wok, tey ae been nclue n te oel fo copleteness an to allow te oel to be use n any futue assessent of teatents an/o accne nteentons ecte at uans. Loss of uan accnaton unty (λ ) was not use n ou nteenton assessents but gt be use n stues on uan popylactc accnaton.

2 Motalty unze ogs Cullng c Densty coecton Vaccnaton, α Vaccnaton, α Bt b Loss of unty λ usceptble ogs nfecton xpose ogs Clncal sease, ab ogs abes otalty µ Abote exposue, (1- ) Motalty Densty coecton Motalty Densty coecton Motalty Densty coecton Motalty unze uans T accnaton 10, opylactc accnaton, α Bt b usceptble uans Loss of unty λ nfecton xpose uans Clncal sease 2 to 9 ea, a, tunk, ab uans abes otalty µ Motalty Abote exposue 2 to to 1-9 ea, a, tunk, Motalty Motalty

3 quatons: Dffeental quatons of te Dog-Huan abes Tanssson Moel. Dogs ( ) c b t α λ ) 1 ( (1) ( ) c t α ) 1 ( (2) t μ (3) t λ α )) ( ( (4) Κ (b ) (5) (6) Huans a ea b t α λ 9) 5(1-8) 4(1-7) 3(1-6) 2(1- )) ( ( (7) a ea a ea t 9) 5(1-8) 4(1-7) 3(1-6) 2( (8) a ea t μ (9)

4 t 10 (10) e e c l ffecte epoucte ube e at te Begnnng of te Obseaton eo t0 e ( b ) b 0 (11)

5 Cost-Beneft an Cost-ffecteness Assessent Functons. Beak own of socal an pate cost: Dog Vaccnaton (7) ublc cost Magnal og accnaton cost qupent of Vaccnaton Costs taff pe e Tanspotaton nfoaton; ate cost Lost wokte Huan ost xposue Teatent ublc cost eglgble copae to pate cost ate cost Magnal uan accnaton cost Tanspotaton Laboatoy fee fo og exanaton Dug cost Outpatent cost ncoe loss ocetal cost ublc cost ate cost. quatons fo te Cost-ffecteness Calculatons annual cost of T CT alone (12) annual DALYs cost of og accnaton capagn annual cost of T

6 C og accnaton an T (13) annual DALYsT alone - annual DALYs og accnaton an T (Datafle: cost_effecteness_abes_contol.xls)