model to data comparison over Europe for year 2001

Transcription

1 Model Model by model to for year 2001 Model to CEREA (joint laboratory ENPC & EdF) Friday 15 September 2006

2 Model Air quality modeling (PAM project, PRIMEQUAL-PREDIT). Transboundary pollution, transfer matrices (EdF, NEEDS project). Modelling challenge: aerosol size range, mixed chemical species, various physical/chemical processes, numerous timescales (stiff system). (Raes, 2000) gas precursors emissions primary particle emission Model to heterogeneous reactions homogeneous reactions gas molecules condensation evaporation nucleation coagulation coagulation cloud activation activation and wet scavenging dry deposition dp < 0.01 um 0.01 < dp < < dp < 1 1 < dp < 10 um aerosols aerosols aerosols aerosols coagulation wet scavenging cloud droplets condensation time scale (sec) 50 bins, alpha=0.5, bimodal NSD NH3 NO Cl aerosol dry diameter (µm)

3 Model Model to Numerical treatment Some physical parameterizations 4 Model to Simulation characteristics Some results 5 6

4 Model Model to Available multiphase models at CEREA: MAM & SIREAM: designed to be hosted by any other CTM. POLAIR3D MODAL AEROSOL MODEL (MAM) tri-modal distribution ATMODATA physical constants and parameterizations GAS PHASE CHEMISTRY (RACM) AQUEOUS MODEL (VSRM) size resolved cloud chemistry SIZE RESOLVED AEROSOL MODEL (SIREAM) INCLUDE sectional distribution thermodynamic model: ISORROPIA mathematical libraries SIREAM: developed in the framework of the PAM project, (main investigator: Bruno Sportisse), with collaboration of Dr Spyros Pandis. Debry, E., Fahey, K., Sartelet, K., Sportisse, B., and, M. (2006). Technical note : a new size resolved aerosol model (siream). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. submitted. ATMODATA: common library of parameterizations (e.g. gas diffusivity) INCLUDE: external modules: ISORROPIA (Nenes, 1998)

5 Model Model to Numerical treatment Splitting of coagulation/condensation: number/mass density, time scales, splitting error evaluation. Debry, E. and Sportisse, B. (2006). Numerical simulation of the general dynamics equation (gde) for aerosols with two collocation methods. Applied Numerical Mathematics. Accepted for publication. Coagulation: Size binning. Optimization of partition coefficients fij k to minimize numerical diffusion. Debry, E. and Sportisse, B. (2006). Solving aerosol coagulation with size-binning methods. Applied Numerical Mathematics. Accepted for publication. Condensation : Hybrid methods (Capaldo, 2000). Small aerosols assumed at equilibrium (bulk or size-resolved), mass transfer solved for large aerosols. Cutting diameter 1 2.5µm. log10(rmse) Debry, E. and Sportisse, B. (2006). Reduction of the condensation/evaporation dynamics for atmospheric aerosols: Theoretical and numerical investigation of hybrid methods. Journal of Science, 37: split coag/cond split cond/coag coupled splitting timestep (s) bin i bin j bin (i j) f(i, j,k) bin k relative error (adim) ref bulk fixed bulk moving iter fixed iter moving bfgs moving cpu time (sec)

6 Model Model to Some physical parameterizations Wet diameter:» Thermodynamics (Isorropia) or empirical formula (r w) 3 C = 1 (r d ) C 2 + (r C 3 (r d ) C 4 log(rh) d) 3 (Gerber, 1985). (C i) 4 i=1 optimized with minimization method to best fit Isorropia. Sea salt emissions: Parameterization of bubble bursting (Monahan, 1986): df dr 80 = (U 10) 3.41 (r 80) 3 ( (r 80) 1.05 ) e B2, generalized to any relative humidities (Lewis, 2006) Heterogeneous reactions: gas/aqueous phase reactions at particle surface (Jacob, 2000): HO 2 PM 0.5 H 2O 2, NO 2 PM 0.5 HONO HNO 3 NO 3 PM HNO 3, N 2O 5 PM, clouds 2 HNO 3 coupled to the gas phase chemistry with reduced γ for N 2 O 5.

7 Model Model to Model to Simulation characteristics Simulation characteristics: Domain: PREVAIR ( ). Time: year Meteorological fields: ECMWF. Gas phase: RACM (Stockwell, 1997) Particulate phase: SIREAM: 5 inorganics, mineral dust, black carbon, 8 SOA classes, VSRM (Fahey, 2003): cloud chemistry, instant aerosol activation. Boundary conditions: aerosol: GOCART, gas: MOZART. Initial conditions: 14 days spinup. Emissions: EMEP inventory (2001). gas: SOx split into 95% SO 2 & 5% H 2 SO 4, aerosols: PM 10 speciated into mineral dust, primary organics & black carbon. Measured : EMEP, AirBase & BDQA, only background stations kept.

8 Model Model to Some results Statistical errors : Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation. Database: EMEP. Hourly basis for ozone, daily basis otherwise. ug/m Comparison between EMEP observed mean and modeled mean. Modeled mean Modeled range (Loon, 2004) Observed mean ug/m Comparison between EMEP observed mean and modeled mean. Modeled mean Modeled range (Loon, 2004) Observed mean Model to ug/m PM10 PM2.5 PSO4 PNO3 PNH3 PNA NO2 NH3 SO2 RMSE between observed and modeled concentrations at EMEP stations. RMSE Range (Loon, 2004) percentage 55 ozone ozone peak Correlation between observed and modeled concentrations at EMEP stations. 90 Correlation Range (Loon, 2004) PM10 PM2.5 PSO4 PNO3 PNH3 PNA O3 O3 peak NO2 NH3 SO PM10 PM2.5 PSO4 PNO3 PNH3 PNA O3 O3 peak NO2 NH3 SO2 Sartelet, K., Debry, E., Fahey, K., Roustan, Y.,, M., and Sportisse, B. (2006). Simulation of aerosols and related species over europe with the polyphemus system. part I: model-to- for Atmospheric Environment. Submitted.

9 3 g m Model Model to Regional scale: Tokyo, Lille, Marseille-Berre, Paris, M. and Sportisse, B. (2006). modeling at regional scale: Model-to- and sensitivity analysis over great Paris. Atmospheric Environment. Submitted. Sartelet, K., Taghavi, M., and Musson-Genon, L. (2006). Etude de l impact du cpt martigues sur la pollution particulaire dans la region de marseille-berre. Technical report, EdF, Environment department. Daily Mean of measured and simulated PM 10 concentrations at station Vitry-sur-Seine. Simulated PM 10 concentrations and Escompte measurements at Marseille. Continental scale: MICS Asia, inter with 9 models. Sartelet, K., Hayami, H., and Sportisse, B. (2006). Mics asia phase II - sensitivity to the aerosol module. Atmospheric Environment. Submitted.

10 Model Model to Modular aerosol models. Results comparable to TNO Benchmark (Loon, 2004). EMEP inter (NEEDS project). Sensitivity study: Parameterizations: effect of sea salt. Model: equilibrium assumption for large aerosols, cloud detection by Liquid Water Content (0.05 g.m 3 ). Data: effect of boundary conditions. Improved SOA module: colloboration with Christian Seigneur (AER) on organic precursors & organic thermodynamics. External mixing: aerosol optical properties & point source treatment. Polymerization processes: submicronic aerosols.