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1 ( ) 1995 ( ) (Somerville, et al., 1999) 2 (, 2001) (2001) Das and Kostrov (1986) (2002) Das and Kostrov (1986) GPS ) (Fukushima and Tanaka, 1990) (, 1999) (2002) ( ) (1995 1

2 (outer fault parameter) (inner fault parameter) S M 0 ( Kanamori and Anderson, 1975) Somerville et al. (1999) S 1 S (km 2 ) = M 2/3 0 (dyne-cm) (1) 1 dyne-cm 10-7 Nm 1.6 ( σ = log ) (, 2001) Wells and Coppersmith (1994) dyne-cm (1) (1) (, 1989; Yamanaka and Shimazaki, 1990) σ c = 7 16 M R 0 3 (S πr 2 ) (2) (1) 2.3 MPa (Eshelby, 1957) R S σ c Somerville et al. (1999) (2) S a S l M 0 S a (km 2 ) = M 0 2/3 (dyne-cm) (3) S l (km 2 ) = M 0 2/3 (dyne-cm) (4) (1) (3) S S a S a /S = 0.22 (Somerville et al., 1999) D a D D a /D = 2 2

3 Das and Kostorv (1986) σ a M 0 7 M S = σ c 16 Rr S 0 σ a = 2 a r (S a πr 2 ) (5) (Miyakoshi et al., 2000) (5) ( R) N ( r i, i=1, N) σ i (combined area of asperities) N 2 π ri = i= 1 πr 2 S (6) (5) (5) (1) S a /S = 0.22 (5) 10.5 MPa Somerville et al. (1999) 22 % 10.5 MPa (2001) S a A 0 M 0 ( 2) A 0 (dyne-cm/s 2 ) = M 0 1/3 (dyne-cm) (7) A 0 a A 0 b A 0 0 a 2 b {( A ) ( A ) } 2 1/ 2 A = (8) Madariaga (1977) 1 A a 0 = 4πrβv R σ a (9) σ a 3

4 σ a = a 0 A 4πβv R 1 r (10) (10) (5) N A N 1/ 2 a 2 0 = 4πβvR ( σ iri ) i= 1 (11) N σ i σ a N r (11) (9) (9) (7) (5) (9) (5) (9) A 7π = β v 4 M Rr a 0 0 R (1), (3) S a /S = const. r/r = const R r 1/ 3 M 0 (12) (13) 1/ 3 A a 0 M 0 (14) (7) (2002) 20 % 4

5 (5) (9) slip-weakening distance:d c ) (strength excess:τ s ) ( Guatteri and Spudich, 2000) (critical Kostorv (1986) (2001) (2001) Das and (2002) Das and Kostorv (1986) 1/3 (, 2001) 1 S S (2001) L W L W = L S S GPS 2 σ c σ c MPa dyne-cm Somerville et al. (1999) 2.3 5

6 M (, 2001) log 10 S (km 2 )= M 4.0 (, 1989) M (2) 3.0 MPa M 0 3 M 0 16 = σ 3/ 2 7π M 0 S (S πr 2 ) (2) c S 3/ 2 (15) (15) M 0 4 S l S Somerville et al. (1999) (2002) S a S a (km 2 ) = S (km 2 ) (16) S l (km 2 ) = S (km 2 ) (17) ( 4) (16) 1.34 ( σ = log ) (17) 1.75 ( σ = log ) (, 2001) 6 S a /S 35 S a /S 30 (2000) 5 σ a σ a S S a (5) (16) σ a 10.5 MPa 10.1 MPa S a /S 30 σ a 6

7 A 0 (7) (10) A 0 A 0 a (8) A 0 b σ eb (9) S b S b /π D i a 6 ( r i ) D a i σ = C µ a C r i (18) 1 Coppersmith, 1994) 1 (18) (Wells and 7 N (, 2001) (, 2001) 1995 (2001b) 100 o -150 o, 350 o -450 o (Hyndman et al., 1997) 7

8 10km-30km (, 1996) (Sagiya and Thatcher, 1999; Tanioka and Satake, 2000a, 2000b) (,1999) 300 km 120 km km km 8.34 x dyne-cm 3.0 MPa 80 km km 2 ( σ c ) MPa M 0 =2.15 x dyne-cm M 0 = S a /S 30 ( 1) 15 ( 2) 2 (2001a) σ a S S a (5) 1(S a /S = 0.30) σ a 10.1 MPa 2(S a /S = 0.15) σ a 20.1 MPa (5 7 cm/year) (150 ) m N D a i ( 5 ) MPa 20.1 MPa 2 8

9 A 2 6 B B+ C 4 5 C+ 2, MPa 20.1 MPa 2 (1999) 1854 (,1986, 1996) A C (1996) ) 8-1, 8-2 (1986, km Irikura (1998) Kamae and 1 S 51 x 20.8 km 2 2 σ c 2.3 MPa 9

10 3 M x dyne-cm 4 S a /S 0.22 ( Somerville et al. (1999) (1) (3) ) 5 M 0 S a /S (5) σ a 10.5 MPa σ ea σ a 6 7 Kamae and Irikura (1998) ( σ a =10.5 MPa) (9) σ eb 4.0 MPa f max Kamae and Irikura (1998) 6 Hz MPa 1: σ eb = 0, 2: σ eb = 0.2 σ ea 3: σ eb = 0.1 σ ea, 4: σ eb = 4.0 MPa (= 0.38 σ ea ) 4 σ eb (7) A 0 (9) a A 0 A 0 b ((8) ) 50 km (HTK) 4 ( 10) (KBU) ( 11) ( 12) ( 10 11) Kostrov (1986) Somerville et al., 1999 (Somerville et al., 1999;, 2001), 2001 Das and 10

11 ( 10 MPa) 2 15 ( 20 MPa) MPa 0 37 CEORKA Wessel and Smith (1995) GMT Ver

12 Boatwright, J. (1988). The seismic radiation from composite models of faulting, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 78, (2001)., 545, Das, S. and B. V. Kostrov (1986). Fracture of a single asperity on a finite fault: A model for weak earthquakes?, In Das, S., J. Boatwright, and C.H. Scholz, eds.: Earthquake Source Mechanics, AGU., Washington D.C., Eshelby, J. D. (1957). The determination of the elastic field of and ellipsoidal inclusion, and related problems, Proc. Roy. Soc., A241, Fukushima, Y. and T. Tanaka (1990). A new attenuation relation for peak horizontal acceleration of strong earthquake ground motion in Japan, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am, 80, Guatteri, M. and P. Spudich (2000). What can strong-motion data tell us about slip-weakening faultfriction laws?, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 90, Hyndman, R.D., M. Yamano and D.A. Oleskevich (1997). The seismogenic zone of subduction thrust faults, Island Arc, 6, (2001)., 110, (2002)., 11 ( ). P. G. Somerville (2000)., 527, (1999).,,. (2001a). ( ), (2001b)., Kamae, K. and K. Irikura (1998). Source model of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake and simulation of near-source ground motion, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 88, Kanamori, H. and D. L. Anderson (1975). Theoretical basis of some empirical relations in seismology, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 65, (2001)., SEISMO, 5, 6-7. Madariaga, R (1977). High-frequency radiation from crack (stress drop) models of earthquake faulting, Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc., 51, (2002)., 12

13 ( ). Miyakoshi, K., T. Kagawa, H. Sekiguchi, T. Iwata, and K. Irikura (2000). Source characterization of inland earthquakes in Japan using source inversion results, Proc. 12thWCEE, 8pp. (CD-ROM). (2002)., ( ). (1999)., 2, 51, (1996)., 2, 38, Sagiya, T., and W. Thatcher (1999). Coseismic slip resolution along a plate boundary megathrust : the Nankai Trough, southwest Japan, J. Geophys. Res., 104, (1999).,, 523, Somerville, P.G., K. Irikura, R. Graves, S. Sawada, D. Wald, N. Abrahamson, Y. Iwasaki, T. Kagawa, N.Smith, and A. Kowada (1999). Characterizing crustal earthquake slip models for the prediction of strong ground motion, Seism. Res. Lett., 70, (1989). ( 390pp.),,, 86. Tanioka, Y. and K. Satake (2001a). Detailed coseismic slip distribution of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake estimated from tsunami waveforms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, Tanioka, Y. and K. Satake (2001b). Coseismic slip distribution of the 1946 Nankai earthquake and aseismic slips caused by the earthquake, Earth Planets Space, 53, (1986). ( ),, 35, (1996). [ ],,. Wells, D. L. and K. J. Coppersmith (1994). New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 84, Wessel, P. and W. H. F. Smith (1995). New version of the Generic Mapping Tools released, EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 76, 329. Yamanaka, Y., and K. Shimazaki (1990). Scaling relationship between the number of aftershocks and the size of the mainshock, J. Phys. Earth, 38, case 4 [ (2002) ] 1 Someville et al. (1999) ( σ) Well and Coppersmith (1994) Someville et al. (1999) 13

14 ( ) 2 [ (2001) ] 3 [Boatwright (1988) ] 4 (a) (b) ( σ) 5 ( ) X [ (2001a) ] 6 ( ) ( ) [ (2001a) ] 7 ( ) ( ) (, 1999) [ (2001a) ] 8-1 ( ) ( ) [ (2001a) ] 1854 ( ) [ (1986) (1999) ] 8-2 ( ) ( ) [ (2001a) ] 1854 ( ) [ (1996) (1999) ] [ (2002) ] HTK (LG) [ (2002) ] 11 KBU (case 1 case 4 ) NS [ (2002) ] 12 HTK( ) KBU( ) (case 4) [ (2002) ] 14

16 rupture area (km 2 ) Somerville et al. (1999) This study standard deviation Wells and Coppersmith (1994) M 0 >7.5x10 25 dyne-cm : Mw>6.52 Somerville et al. (1999) Miyakoshi (2002) low angle dip-slip fault M 0 (dyne-cm = 10-7 Nm)

17 (a) (b) combined area of asperity (km 2 ) area of largest asperities (km 2 ) rupture area (km 2 ) rupture area (km 2 )

CONTROLLING FACTORS OF STRONG GROUND MOTION PREDICTION FOR SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES

13 th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering Vancouver, B.C., Canada August 1-6, 2004 Paper No. 2801 CONTROLLING FACTORS OF STRONG GROUND MOTION PREDICTION FOR SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES Hiroe MIYAKE 1,