Southern Ocean observations & change

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1 Southern Ocean observations & change Steve Rintoul Project leader CSHOR

2 Project staff Steve Rintoul (Project leader and research scientist) Laura Herraiz-Borreguero (Research scientist) Alessandro Silvano (PhD student) Jan Jaap Meijer (PhD student) Nathalie Ribiero-Santos (PhD student) 2 Presentation title Presenter name

3 Partners in Southern Ocean Research Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC) Antarctic Gateway Partnership Australian Antarctic Division Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) National Environmental Science Program Earth System and Climate Change Hub Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes International collaborators 3

4 Project objectives Overall objective: To quantify variability and trends in ocean circulation and water mass formation in the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean Science questions: 1. How and why is the deep ocean changing? 2. What controls how much ocean heat reaches the ice shelves? 3. How sensitive is the circulation of the Southern Ocean to changes in forcing? 4

5 Achievements & highlights 5 Photos: Peter Franks, Esmee van Wijk, Steve Rintoul

6 Sensitivity of bottom water formation to changes in forcing: Mertz calving natural experiment Sea ice formation year Takeshi Tamura (update of Tamura et al., 2016) 7

7 Sensitivity of bottom water formation to changes in forcing: Mertz calving natural experiment Moorings supported by IMOS and the ACE CRC 8 Snow, K., et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 2018

8 Impact of iceberg calving on shelf circulation and basal melt of ice shelves pre-calving post-calving temperature change 9 Cougnon et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 2017

9 Ice-capable floats reveal warm water is widespread and persistent on the Totten shelf 10 Silvano et al., in prep.; van Wijk et al., in prep.

10 Glacial melt inhibits dense water formation & enhances basal melt of ice shelves 11 Silvano et al., Science Advances, 2018

11 Wind-driven thickness change in mode water dominates increase in ocean heat content 12 Gao et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017

12 Global influence of localised ACC dynamics 14 Rintoul, Nature, in press

13 Choosing the future of Antarctica Environmental change by 2070 Biological and social change by Rintoul et al., Nature, in press

14 Tracking ocean change with repeat hydrography and deep Argo floats Rintoul & Sokolov 2001 van Wijk & Rintoul

15 RV Investigator IN2018_V nm travelled 108 CTDs (>73 km) 11 Deep Argo 14 BGC floats & drifters Carbon Chlorofluorocarbons 52 trace metal casts 11 in-situ pump casts 224 balloon launches Clouds & aerosols Support from ACE CRC, MNF, CSHOR, NESP ESCC Hub & international collaborators 18

16 Ross Sea Bottom Water at 150 E

17 Ross Sea Bottom Water at 150 E

18 Mean T-S properties in bottom 100 dbar at 150 E potential temperature salinity

19 Deep Argo First Southern Ocean deployments 11 floats from US, Japan and France deployed in 2018; all working Another 6 14 floats deployed this summer (US, Japan, Australia) 22

20 Outlook for Science Publish study on impact of shifts of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current on ocean heat transport to the Antarctic margin Publish study on changes in Antarctic Bottom Water Analysis of Ross Gyre floats and deep Argo pilot array Develop joint strategy with Southern Ocean Dynamics project for combined observational/modelling studies of Southern Ocean change, including heat transport to Antarctic ice shelves Plan future collaborative fieldwork 24 Presentation title Presenter name

21 Outlook for Fieldwork RV Investigator study of a standing meander of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (October 2018) Deep Argo deployments Ross Gyre deployments Proposals Under-ice and Deep Argo proposals NASA proposal Southern Ocean Melting Antarctica RV Investigator proposal for Prydz Bay expedition RV Investigator proposal for mooring recovery 25 Presentation title Presenter name

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