A Novel Hybrid Method for Short Term Load Forecasting using Fuzzy Logic and New Particle Swarm Optimization(NPSO)

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "A Novel Hybrid Method for Short Term Load Forecasting using Fuzzy Logic and New Particle Swarm Optimization(NPSO)"

Transcription

1 16th ATIOAL POWER SYSTEMS COFERECE, 15th-17th DECEMBER, A ovel Hybrid Method for Short Term Load Forecasting using Fuzzy Logic and ew Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO) Amit Jain, Member, IEEE, M. Babita Jain, Member, IEEE Abstract Coping with the question of accurate and consistent short term load forecasting which is very crucial technique for the efficient functioning of the power system the technique of STLF using PSO optimized fuzzy inference system has been developed. This paper presents a methodology for the short term load forecasting problem using the similar day concept combined with fuzzy logic approach and a new particle swarm optimization. To obtain the next-day load forecast, fuzzy logic is used to modify the load curves of the selected similar days of the forecast previous day by generating the correction factors for them. These correction factors are then applied to the similar days of the forecast day. The optimization of the fuzzy parameters is done using the new particle swarm optimization technique on the training data set of the considered data set. A new Euclidean norm with weight factors is proposed for the selection of similar days. The proposed methodology is illustrated through the simulation results on a typical data set. Index Terms-- Euclidean norm, Fuzzy logic approach, Particle swarm optimization, ew particle swarm optimization, Short term load forecasting, similar day method. I. ITRODUCTIO P OWER load forecasting plays an important role in power system. To improve the security of the power system and reduce the generation costs, it is necessary to heighten accuracy of the load forecasting in power system. Therefore, establishing high accuracy models of the load forecasting is very important. During the past several decades, load forecasting has been extensively researched and a large number of models have been proposed. Traditional short-term load forecasting methods which include classical multiply linear regression(rewagad and Soanawane, 1998),.ARMA (automatic regressive moving average), data mining models [2]-[7](Vila,et al, 2000), time-series models and exponential smoothing models(haida,1994). Generally speaing, these models wor well under normal conditions. However, they require a long computational time and have some deficiency in the case of the load changed abruptly. Short term load forecasting is necessary for the control and scheduling operations of a power system and also acts as inputs to the power analysis functions such as load flow and contingency Dr Amit Jain, Research Assistant Professor, Head, Power Systems Research Center at International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India ( amit@iiit.ac.in). M. Babita Jain is PhD student at Power Systems Research Center, International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India ( babita_j2000@yahoo.com). analysis [1]. Power utilities in India still depend on the averaging of set of similar days for short term load forecasting, the results of which are very far from being accurate. Of late, artificial neural networs have been widely employed for load forecasting. However, there exist large forecast errors using A when there are rapid fluctuations in load and temperatures [8]-[9]. In such cases, forecasting methods using fuzzy logic approach have been employed. In this paper, we propose an approach for short term load forecasting problem, using a hybrid technique combining the new particle swarm optimization (PSO) and fuzzy logic approach. The PSO technique which roots from the concept of Computational Intelligence capable of dealing with complex, dynamic and poorly defined problems that AI has problem with, has an advantage of dealing with the nonlinear parts of the forecasted load curves, and also has the ability to deal with the abrupt change in the weather variables such as temperature, humidity and also including the impact of the day type. In this method, we select similar days from the previous days to the forecast day using Euclidean norm (based on weights, which are calculated such that they hold the essence of the earlier data) with weather variables [10]. There may be a substantial discrepancy between the load on the forecast day and that on similar days, even though the selected days are very similar to the forecast day with regard to weather and day type. Therefore, the selected similar days cannot be averaged to obtain the load forecast. To avoid this problem, the evaluation of similarity between the load on the forecast day and that on similar days is done using fuzzy logic combined with particle swarm optimization. Many methods have been reported for the load forecast using fuzzy logic [12]-[14]. This approach evaluates the similarity using the information about the previous forecast day and previous similar days. The similarity resulted with a high MAPE (mean average percentage error) value. The fuzzy inference system is used for the reduction of this MAPE and generation of suitable correction factors. The fuzzy system thus generates a correction factor for the load curve on a similar day to the shape of that on the forecast day. The fuzzy parameters of the fuzzy inference system are optimized using the PSO technique implemented in the MATLAB program of the short term load forecasting. The PSO technique is thus used to evolve the initial best parameters for the fuzzy inference system. The optimization of the fuzzy parameters using PSO is done using the training data set of the available data set and the fuzzy inference system with the optimized parameters is then used on the testing data set. For the testing data set, first the correction factors of load curves on similar days are calculated using the optimized fuzzy inference system for the similar days of the forecast previous

2 16th ATIOAL POWER SYSTEMS COFERECE, 15th-17th DECEMBER, day, then the forecast load is obtained by averaging the corrected load curves on similar days using the previous day s correction factors. The correction factors are obtained using the training data set and then they are applied to the testing data set. The approach suitability is verified by applying it to a typical real data set. The overall MAPE was found to be very less (<0.03) for the considered data set. This paper contributes to the short term load forecasting, as it shows how the forecast can include the effect of weather variables, temperature as well as humidity and day type using a new Euclidean norm for the selection of the similar days and PSO optimized fuzzy logic approach for obtaining the correction factors to the similar days. The paper is organized as follows: section II deals with the data analysis; section III gives the overview of the proposed forecasting method, discussing the selection of similar days using a new Euclidean norm and the PSO optimization of the fuzzy inference system is presented; section IV presents the optimization of fuzzy parameters using new particle swarm optimization; section V comparison of simulation results of the proposed forecasting methodology i.e. PSO with the results obtained using PSO and results obtained using no optimization of fuzzy parameters followed by conclusions in section VI. B. Variation of Load with Temperature Temperature is the most important weather variable that affects the load. The deviation of the temperature variable from a normal value results in a significant variation in the load. Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 show the relationship between the temperature and load. Fig. 2 shows a plot between the average temperatures versus maximum demand. Fig. 3 shows the plot between the average temperatures versus average demand. In the plots the dot represents the actual values and the solid line is the best fitted curve. The graphs show a positive correlation between the load and temperature for the forecast month of July i.e. demand increases as the temperature increases. II. VARIABLES IMPACTIG THE LOAD PATTER The analysis on the monthly load and weather data helps in understanding the variables, which may affect load forecasting. The data analysis is carried out on data containing hourly values of load, temperature, and humidity of 7 months. In the analysis phase, the load curves are drawn and the relationship between the load and weather variables is established [11]. Also, the wee and the day of the wee impact on the load is obtained. A. Load Curves The load curve for the month of May is shown in Fig. 1. The observations from the load curves are as follows: 1. There exists weely seasonality but the value of load scales up and down. 2. The load curves on wee days are similar 3. The load curves on the weeends are similar. 4. Days are classified based on the o following categories: a. ormal wee days (Tuesday - Friday) b. Monday c. Sunday d. Saturday Monday is accounted to be different to weedays so as to tae care for the difference in the load because of the previous day to be weeend. C. Variation of Load with Humidity Another weather variable that affects the load level is humidity. To study the effect of this particular weather variable on load we plot the maximum demand versus average humidity and the average demand versus average humidity graphs as shown. Fig 4 shows the plot between the average humidity versus maximum demand. Fig 5 shows the plot between the average humidity versus average demand. From the graphs it can be seen that there exists a positive correlation between load and humidity for the forecast month of July i.e. demand increases as the humidity increases.

3 16th ATIOAL POWER SYSTEMS COFERECE, 15th-17th DECEMBER, D. Autocorrelation of Load It is nown that the load at a given hour is dependent not only on the load on the previous hour but also on the load at the same hour of the previous day. Hence, it is assumed that the load curve is more or less similar to the load curve on the previous day. III. LOAD FORECASTIG USIG FUZZY LOGIC A. Similar Day selection In this paper, Euclidean norm with weight factors is used to evaluate the similarity between the forecast day and the searched previous days. Euclidean norm maes us understand the similarity by using the expression based on the concept of norm. Decrease in the Euclidean norm results in the better evaluation of the similar days i.e., smaller the Euclidean norm the more similar are the days to the forecast day. In general, the Euclidean norm using maximum and minimum temperatures along with the day type variable is used for the evaluation of the similar days. But, the norm using maximum and minimum temperatures is not efficient for the selection of the similar days because humidity is also an important weather variable as also shown in section II C. In the present wor, we have proposed a new Euclidean norm to account for the humidity. The new Euclidean norm uses average temperature, average humidity and day type with weight factors to evaluate the similarity of the searched previous days. The expression for the new Euclidean norm is as follows: E w ( T ) w ( H ) w ( D) (1) max 2 avg 3 T T T (2) p max max max H H H (3) p avg avg avg p D D D (4) B. Fuzzy Inference System The load forecasting at any given hour not only depends on the load at the previous hour but also on the load at the given hour on the previous day. Also, the Euclidean norm alone is not sufficient for the load forecast as the selected similar days for the forecast day have considerably large mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Assuming same trends of relationships between the previous forecast day and previous similar days as that of the forecast day and its similar days, the similar days can thus be evaluated by analyzing the previous forecast day and its previous similar days. The fuzzy inference system is used to evaluate the similarity between the previous forecast days and previous similar days resulting in correction factors, used to correct the similar days of the forecast day to obtain the load forecast. To evaluate this degree of similarity, three fuzzy input variables for the fuzzy inference system are defined [10]. E L L (5) L p ps E T T (6) T p ps E H H (7) H p ps Where, L p and L ps are the average load of the previous forecast day and the previous th similar day, T p, T ps, H p, H ps show the value corresponding to temperature and humidity respectively. E L, E T, E H tae three fuzzy set values; Low (L), Medium (M), High (H).The membership functions of the input variables and output variable are as shown in Figs 6-7. The fuzzy rules for the inference system for the given fuzzy variables are based on the generalized nowledge of the effect of each variable on the load curve [11]. If the membership of E L is U E L, that of E T is U E T and that of E H is U E H, the firing strength, u, of the premise is calculated based on the min operator. The firing strength of each rule is calculated as follows: min(,, ) (8) i ELi ET i EH i Where, Tmax and H avg are the forecast day maximum temperature and average humidity respectively. Also, Tpmax and H p avg are the maximum temperature and average humidity of the searched previous days and w1, w 2, w 3 are the weight factors determined by least squares method based on the regression model constructed using historical data [2]. The similar days are selected from the previous 30 days of the forecast day. The data selection is limited to account for the seasonality of the data. The day types considered for the methodology are 4(Tuesday-Friday), 3 (Monday), 2(Saturday), 1(Sunday);

4 16th ATIOAL POWER SYSTEMS COFERECE, 15th-17th DECEMBER, The membership function of an inferred fuzzy output variable is calculated using a fuzzy centroid defuzzification scheme to translate fuzzy output statements into a crisp output value, W i i / i i1 i1 W (9) The output value is expressed by W which is the correction factor for the load curve on the * similar day to the shape on the forecast day. W is applied to each similar day and corrects the load curve on similar days. The forecast next day load curve L (t) is then given by averaging the corrected loads on similar days. 1 L( t) (1 W ) L ( t) s (10) 1 Where L s (t), is the power load at t'o cloc on the th corrected similar day, is the number of similar days and t is hourly time from 1 to 24. IV. OPTIMIZATIO OF FUZZY PARAMETERS USIG EW PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATIO PSO is a population-based optimization method first proposed by Eberhart and Colleagues [15,16]. Some of the attractive features of PSO include the ease of implementation and the fact that no gradient information is required. It can be used to solve a wide array of different optimization problems. Lie evolutionary algorithms, PSO technique conducts search using a population of particles, corresponding to individuals. Each particle represents a candidate solution to the problem at hand. In a PSO system, particles change their positions by flying around in a multidimensional search space until computational limitations are exceeded. The PSO technique is an evolutionary computation technique, but it differs from other well-nown evolutionary computation algorithms such as the genetic algorithms. Although a population is used for searching the search space, there are no operators inspired by the human DA procedures applied on the population. Instead, in PSO, the population dynamics simulates a 'bird floc's' behavior, where social sharing of information taes place and individuals can profit from the discoveries and previous experience of all the other companions during the search for food. Thus, each companion, called particle, in the population, which is called swarm, is assumed to 'fly' over the search space in order to find promising regions of the landscape. For example, in the minimization case, such regions possess lower function values than other, visited previously. In this context, each particle is treated as a point in a d-dimensional space, which adjusts its own 'flying' according to its flying experience as well as the flying experience of other particles (companions). In PSO, a particle is defined as a moving point in hyperspace. For each particle, at the current time step, a record is ept of the position, velocity, and the best position found in the search space so far. In our personal experience we now that an individual not only learns from his or her own and other individuals previous best, but also learns from his or her own and other individuals mistaes. The idea of PSO [17, 18] is based on this social behavior. Each particle tries to leave its previous worst position and its group s previous worst position. The assumption is a basic concept of PSO [17]. In the PSO algorithm, instead of using evolutionary operators such as mutation and crossover, to manipulate algorithms, for a d-variables optimization problem, a floc of particles are put into the d-dimensional search space with randomly chosen velocities and positions nowing their worst values so far (Pworst) and the position. In the d-dimensional space, the velocity of each particle, adjusted according to its own flying experience and the other particle's flying experience. For example, the ith particle is represented as xi = (x i1, xi2... b id ) in the dimensional space. The best previous position of the i-th particle is recorded and represented as: Pworsti = (Pworsti 1, Pworst i,2,..., Pworst id ) The index of worst particle among all of the particles in the group is gworst d.the velocity for particle i is represented as vi = (v i 1, v.2,...,v. d ).The modified velocity and position of each particle can be calculated using the current velocity and the distance from Pworst id to gworst d as shown in the following formulas [19]: v[] = v[] - c1 * rand() * (pworst[] - present[]) - c2* rand ()*(worst[]-present[]) (11) present[]=persent[]+v[] (12) Where v[] is the particle velocity, persent[] is the current particle (solution). pworst [] and gworst[] are defined as stated before. rand () is a random number between (0,1). c1, c2 are learning factors. Usually c1 = c2 = 2. The evolution procedure of PSO Algorithms is shown in Fig. 8. Producing initial populations is the first step of PSO. The population is composed of the chromosomes that are real codes. The corresponding evaluation of populations called the "fitness function". It is the performance index of a population. The fitness value is bigger, and the performance is better.

5 16th ATIOAL POWER SYSTEMS COFERECE, 15th-17th DECEMBER, After the fitness function has been calculated, the fitness value and the number of the generation determine whether or not the evolution procedure is stopped (Maximum iteration number reached?). In the following, calculate the Pworst of each particle and Gworst of population (the best movement of all particles). The update the velocity, position, gworst and pworst of particles give a new best position which is very far from the existing worst position (best chromosome in our proposition). Fig. 8 Evaluation procedure of PSO Algorithm For the data set considered the fuzzy inference system has been optimized for six parameters (maxima and minima of each of the input fuzzy variable EL, ET, EH), considereing 49 particles. Hence each particle is a six dimensional one.the initial values of the fuzzy inference system are obtained by using the May and June data. These values are incorporated into the fuzzy inference system to obtain the forecast errors of June month. The new particle swarm optimization function accepts the training data i.e. May and June 99, and the objective is to reduce the RMS MAPE error of the forecast days(june 99) using May data. The RMS MAPE is taen as the fitness function and the particle swarm optimizer function is run for 100 iterations(by then the RMS MAPE) is more or less fixed. After every iteration the optimizer updates the latest particle position using the optimizer equations based on the Pworst and Gworst of the previous iteration if the fitness function value is better than the previous one. The parameters thus obtained after the PSO optimization are the final fuzzy input parameters and these are used to forecast the load of the testing data set i.e. July month. V. SIMULATIO RESULTS The performance of the method for the short term load forecast is tested by using the 7 months data, from January to July of a particular data set used. The method has been simulated using the fuzzy logic toolbox available in MATLAB. Load forecasting is done for the month of July. The fuzzy inference system is designed for the computer simulation. First, fuzzy parameters are s based on the existing training data set, as described in the above section. Hence, the data of the month June has been used for the selection of similar days. The number of similar days used for the forecasting is five. The initial parameters of the fuzzy membership functions are determined through the simulation of the load curve forecasting in the previous month to the forecast day. The parameters of the membership functions for the input and output variables for the next-day load curve forecasting for the month of June are as follows: TABLE1 PARAMETERS OF MEMBERSHIP FUCTIOS OF IPUT VARIABLES (a1,a2) (a3,a4) (a5,a6) (-1000,1000) (-20,20) (-20,20) TABLE2 PARAMETERS OF MEMBERSHIP FUCTIOS OF OUTPUT VARIABLES (b1,b2,b3) (-0.3,-0.25,-0.2) (b3,b4,b5) (-0.2,-0.15,-0.10) (b4,b5,b6) (-0.15,-0.10,-0.05) (b5,b6,b7) (-0.10,-0.05,0) (b6,b7,b8) (-0.05,0,0.05) (b7,b8,b9) (0,0.05,0.1) (b8,b9,b10) (0.05,0.1,0.15) (b9,b10,b11) (0.1,0.15,0.2) (b10,b11,b12) (0.15,0.2,0.25) (b11,b12,b13) (0.2,0.25,0.3) Second, the fuzzy parameters are optimized using PSO and PSO algorithms to find the optimal range of the membership functions (FIS with PSO algorithms). Last, the optimized fuzzy inference system on the PSO and PSO algorithms is used to forecast the load of the month of July which is the testing data set separately. After the optimization process, the optimal values of a1, a2, a3, a4, a5 and a6 in FIS with PSO and PSO algorithm are calculated and are given in the Table 3. TABLE3 PSO AD PSO OPTIMIZED FUZZY PARAMETERS Fuzzy Limits (a1,a2) (a3,a4) (a5,a6) PSO (-17274,15766) (-57.69, 35.55) (-7.25, 24.27) PSO (-3465,3307) (10.19,62.90) (-2.58,26.77) TABLE4 PARAMETERS OF PSO AD PSO ALGORITHM Parameters PSO PSO Population Size umber of Iteration w max c 1 w mim The forecasted results of 4 representative days of the July month in a wee are presented. These days represents four

6 16th ATIOAL POWER SYSTEMS COFERECE, 15th-17th DECEMBER, categories of classified days of wee in the present methodology namely Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. The humidity variations for the days to be forecasted i.e. 23 rd - 27 th July are as shown in Fig. 9. Fig. 9 Humidity curve between 23 rd July-27 th July The forecast results deviation from the actual values are represented in the form of MAPE. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is defined as: i i 1 PA PF MAPE 100 (13) P i i1 A P A, PF are the actual and forecast values of the load. is the number of the hours of the day i.e. = 1, 2,..24 With the proposed method the MAPE error for the considered days, for which forecasted results are shown in Fig. 9-12, is calculated and these are as follows in Table 5: TABLE5 MAPE OF FORECASTED RESULTS Forecast Day MAPE (PSO) MAPE (PSO) 24 July (Saturday) (PSO) July (Sunday) July (Monday) July (Tuesday) Fig. 10 MAPE comparison of PSO and PSO of July 24 Fig. 11 MAPE comparison of PSO and PSO of July 25 Fig. 12 MAPE comparison of PSO and PSO of July 26 In the present wor, a novel PSO optimized fuzzy logic system for short term load forecasting is developed to forecast the load for next day and it is compared with the PSO optimized FIS and it has been observed that the PSO optimized FIS is fast and is consistent in resulting forecast with MAPE less than In the fuzzy inference system, the optimization of membership functions was required, as it reduces the MAPE and so the input parameters limits are adjusted in optimal values so as to give a MAPE error of low values. The computer MATLAB simulation demonstrates that the fuzzy inference system associated to the PSO algorithm approach became very strong, giving good results and possessing good robustness in comparison with the PSO algorithm and the results will improve in quality with the use of historical data of more number of years. VI. COCLUSIO In this paper an optimal fuzzy logic is designed using PSO algorithm. The fuzzy inference system with PSO algorithm is better than the traditional fuzzy inference system without PSO algorithms and also the fuzzy inference system with PSO as we observed during our simulation study and proposed system provides better improvement and good robustness. The system taes into account the effect of humidity as well as temperature on load and a fuzzy logic based method is used to correct the similar day load curves of the forecast day to obtain the load forecast. Also, a new Euclidean norm with weight factors is proposed, which is used for the selection of similar days. Fuzzy logic is used to evaluate the correction factor of the selected similar days to the forecast day using the information of the previous forecast day and the previous similar days. Fig. 13 MAPE comparison of PSO and PSO of July 27 To verify the forecasting ability of the proposed methodology, we did simulation to do load forecasting for the month of July in a data set of 7 months and results for four representative days of a wee in the month of July are given. The results obtained from the simulation show that the proposed forecasting methodology, which proposes the use of weather variables i.e. temperature as well as humidity, gives

7 16th ATIOAL POWER SYSTEMS COFERECE, 15th-17th DECEMBER, load forecasting results with reasonable accuracy. The proposed methodology would certainly give improved results when it is implemented on historical data set of many years, which we will present in our next research paper. Authors hope that the proposed methodology will be helpful in using more weather variables, which will certainly be better than using only temperature as the weather variable that affects the load, in short term load forecasting and will further propagate research for short term load forecasting using new optimization techniques lie PSO. VII. REFERECES [1] G. Gross and F. D. Galiana, "Short-Term Load Forecasting,"Proceedings of IEEE, vol. 75, no. 12, pp , Dec [2] A. D. Papalexopoulos and T. C. Hesterberg, "A regression-based approach to short-term load forecasting," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 5, no. 4, pp , [3] T. Haida and S. Muto, "Regression based pea load forecasting using a transformation technique," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 9, no. 4, pp , [4] S. Rahman and O. Hazim, "A generalized nowledgebased short term load-forecasting technique," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 8, no. 2, pp , [5] S. J. Huang and K. R. Shih, "Short-term load forecasting via ARMA model identification including nongaussian process considerations," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 18, no. 2, pp , [6] H.Wu and C. Lu, "A data mining approach for spatial modeling in small area load forecast," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 17, no. 2, pp , [7] S. Rahman and G. Shrestha, "A priority vector based technique for load forecasting," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 6, no. 4, pp ,1993. [8] H. S. Hippert, C. E. Pedreira, and R. C. Souza, "eural networs for short-term load forecasting: A review and evaluation," IEEE Trans.Power Syst., vol. 16, no. 1, pp , [9] C.. Lu and S. Vemuri, "eural networ based short term load forecasting," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 8, no. 1, pp , [10] T. Senjyu, Uezato. T, Higa. P, "Future Load Curve Shaping based on similarity using Fuzzy Logic Approach," IEE Proceedings of Generation, Transmission, Distribution, vol. 145, no. 4, pp , [11] S. Rahman and R. Bhatnagar, "An expert system based algorithm for short term load forecast," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 3,no. 2, pp , [12] T. Senjyu, Mandal. P, Uezato. K, Funabashi. T, "ext Day Load Curve Forecasting using Hybrid Correction Method," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 20, no. 1, pp , [13] P. A. Mastorocostas, J. B. Theocharis, and A. G. Bairtzis, "Fuzzy modeling for short term load forecasting using the orthogonal least squares method," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 14, no. 1, pp , [14] M. Chow and H. Tram, "Application of fuzzy logic technology for spatial load forecasting," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 12, no. 3, pp , [15] J. Kennedy, R. Eberhart: Particle Swarm Optimization, Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. on eural etwor, Vol. 4, 1995, pp [16] H. Yoshida, K. Kawata, Y. Fuuyama, S. Taayama, Y. aanishi: A Particle Swarm Optimization for Reactive Power and Voltage Control Considering Voltage Security Assessment, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 15, o. 4, ov. 2000, pp [17] Bergh, F. and Engelbrecht, A, (2002) A ew Locally Convergent Particle Swarm Optimiser. Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics. pp [18] Carlisle, A. and Dozier, G. (2000) Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization to Dynamic Environment. Proc of [19] International Conference n Artificial Intelligence Chang C.S., Fu W. "Area load-frequency control using fuzzy gain scheduling of PI controllers", Electric Power system Research, Vol. 42, 1997, pp VIII. BIOGRAPHIES AMIT JAI GRADUATED FROM KIT, IDIA I ELECTRICAL EGIEERIG. HE COMPLETED HIS MASTER S AD PH.D FROM IDIA ISTITUTE OF TECHOLOGY, EW DELHI, IDIA. He was woring in Alstom on the power SCADA systems. He was woring in Korea in 2002 as a Postdoctoral researcher in the Brain Korea 21 project team of Chungbu ational University. He was Post Doctoral Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) at Tohou University, Sendai, Japan. He also wored as a Post Doctoral Research Associate at Tohou University, Sendai, Japan. Currently he is Head of Power Systems Research Center at IIIT, Hyderabad, India. His fields of research interest are power system real time monitoring and control, artificial intelligence applications, power system economics and electricity marets, renewable energy, reliability analysis, GIS applications, parallel processing and nanotechnology. M Babita Jain is PhD student at the International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad, India since The areas of interest include IT Applications to Power Systems, Load forecasting and Multi Agent Systems. She has actively involved in establishing IEEE student branch and Women in engineering affinity group activities.

Fuzzy based Day Ahead Prediction of Electric Load using Mahalanobis Distance

Fuzzy based Day Ahead Prediction of Electric Load using Mahalanobis Distance 200 International Conference on Power System Technology Fuzzy based Day Ahead Prediction of Electric Load using Mahalanobis Distance Amit Jain, Member, IEEE, E. Srinivas, and Santosh umar Kuadapu Abstract--Prediction

More information

One-Hour-Ahead Load Forecasting Using Neural Network

One-Hour-Ahead Load Forecasting Using Neural Network IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 17, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2002 113 One-Hour-Ahead Load Forecasting Using Neural Network Tomonobu Senjyu, Member, IEEE, Hitoshi Takara, Katsumi Uezato, and Toshihisa Funabashi,

More information

Fuzzy Modeling and Similarity based Short Term Load Forecasting using Swarm Intelligence-A step towards Smart Grid

Fuzzy Modeling and Similarity based Short Term Load Forecasting using Swarm Intelligence-A step towards Smart Grid Fuzzy Modeling and Similarity based Short Term Load Forecasting using Swarm Intelligence-A step towards Smart Grid Amit Jain 1, M Babita Jain 2 1 Lead Consultant, Utilities, Infotech Enterprisese Limited,

More information

Application of Teaching Learning Based Optimization for Size and Location Determination of Distributed Generation in Radial Distribution System.

Application of Teaching Learning Based Optimization for Size and Location Determination of Distributed Generation in Radial Distribution System. Application of Teaching Learning Based Optimization for Size and Location Determination of Distributed Generation in Radial Distribution System. Khyati Mistry Electrical Engineering Department. Sardar

More information

Demand Forecasting in Deregulated Electricity Markets

Demand Forecasting in Deregulated Electricity Markets International Journal of Computer Applications (975 8887) Demand Forecasting in Deregulated Electricity Marets Anamia Electrical & Electronics Engineering Department National Institute of Technology Jamshedpur

More information

Short Term Load Forecasting Based Artificial Neural Network

Short Term Load Forecasting Based Artificial Neural Network Short Term Load Forecasting Based Artificial Neural Network Dr. Adel M. Dakhil Department of Electrical Engineering Misan University Iraq- Misan Dr.adelmanaa@gmail.com Abstract Present study develops short

More information

CAPACITOR PLACEMENT USING FUZZY AND PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION METHOD FOR MAXIMUM ANNUAL SAVINGS

CAPACITOR PLACEMENT USING FUZZY AND PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION METHOD FOR MAXIMUM ANNUAL SAVINGS CAPACITOR PLACEMENT USING FUZZY AND PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION METHOD FOR MAXIMUM ANNUAL SAVINGS M. Damodar Reddy and V. C. Veera Reddy Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, S.V. University,

More information

Fuzzy Logic Approach for Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting

Fuzzy Logic Approach for Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting Fuzzy Logic Approach for Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting M. Rizwan 1, Dinesh Kumar 2, Rajesh Kumar 3 1, 2, 3 Department of Electrical Engineering, Delhi Technological University, Delhi 110042, India

More information

Comparison of Loss Sensitivity Factor & Index Vector methods in Determining Optimal Capacitor Locations in Agricultural Distribution

Comparison of Loss Sensitivity Factor & Index Vector methods in Determining Optimal Capacitor Locations in Agricultural Distribution 6th NATIONAL POWER SYSTEMS CONFERENCE, 5th-7th DECEMBER, 200 26 Comparison of Loss Sensitivity Factor & Index Vector s in Determining Optimal Capacitor Locations in Agricultural Distribution K.V.S. Ramachandra

More information

Electric Load Forecasting Using Wavelet Transform and Extreme Learning Machine

Electric Load Forecasting Using Wavelet Transform and Extreme Learning Machine Electric Load Forecasting Using Wavelet Transform and Extreme Learning Machine Song Li 1, Peng Wang 1 and Lalit Goel 1 1 School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering Nanyang Technological University

More information

Weighted Fuzzy Time Series Model for Load Forecasting

Weighted Fuzzy Time Series Model for Load Forecasting NCITPA 25 Weighted Fuzzy Time Series Model for Load Forecasting Yao-Lin Huang * Department of Computer and Communication Engineering, De Lin Institute of Technology yaolinhuang@gmail.com * Abstract Electric

More information

IJESRT. Scientific Journal Impact Factor: (ISRA), Impact Factor: [Gupta et al., 3(5): May, 2014] ISSN:

IJESRT. Scientific Journal Impact Factor: (ISRA), Impact Factor: [Gupta et al., 3(5): May, 2014] ISSN: IJESRT INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES & RESEARCH TECHNOLOGY Short Term Weather -Dependent Load Forecasting using Fuzzy Logic Technique Monika Gupta Assistant Professor, Marwadi Education

More information

A Hybrid Model of Wavelet and Neural Network for Short Term Load Forecasting

A Hybrid Model of Wavelet and Neural Network for Short Term Load Forecasting International Journal of Electronic and Electrical Engineering. ISSN 0974-2174, Volume 7, Number 4 (2014), pp. 387-394 International Research Publication House http://www.irphouse.com A Hybrid Model of

More information

USE OF FUZZY LOGIC TO INVESTIGATE WEATHER PARAMETER IMPACT ON ELECTRICAL LOAD BASED ON SHORT TERM FORECASTING

USE OF FUZZY LOGIC TO INVESTIGATE WEATHER PARAMETER IMPACT ON ELECTRICAL LOAD BASED ON SHORT TERM FORECASTING Nigerian Journal of Technology (NIJOTECH) Vol. 35, No. 3, July 2016, pp. 562 567 Copyright Faculty of Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Print ISSN: 0331-8443, Electronic ISSN: 2467-8821 www.nijotech.com

More information

Day Ahead Hourly Load and Price Forecast in ISO New England Market using ANN

Day Ahead Hourly Load and Price Forecast in ISO New England Market using ANN 23 Annual IEEE India Conference (INDICON) Day Ahead Hourly Load and Price Forecast in ISO New England Market using ANN Kishan Bhushan Sahay Department of Electrical Engineering Delhi Technological University

More information

Research on Short-term Load Forecasting of the Thermoelectric Boiler. Based on a Dynamic RBF Neural Network

Research on Short-term Load Forecasting of the Thermoelectric Boiler. Based on a Dynamic RBF Neural Network Research on Short-term Load Forecasting of the Thermoelectric Boiler Based on a Dynamic RBF Neural Networ Wei-Bao DAI, Ping-Hua ZOU, Cheng-Xian, YAN School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering Harbin

More information

Reactive Power Contribution of Multiple STATCOM using Particle Swarm Optimization

Reactive Power Contribution of Multiple STATCOM using Particle Swarm Optimization Reactive Power Contribution of Multiple STATCOM using Particle Swarm Optimization S. Uma Mageswaran 1, Dr.N.O.Guna Sehar 2 1 Assistant Professor, Velammal Institute of Technology, Anna University, Chennai,

More information

A Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) Primer

A Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) Primer A Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) Primer With Applications Brian Birge Overview Introduction Theory Applications Computational Intelligence Summary Introduction Subset of Evolutionary Computation Genetic

More information

Short-Term Load Forecasting Using ARIMA Model For Karnataka State Electrical Load

Short-Term Load Forecasting Using ARIMA Model For Karnataka State Electrical Load International Journal of Engineering Research and Development e-issn: 2278-67X, p-issn: 2278-8X, www.ijerd.com Volume 13, Issue 7 (July 217), PP.75-79 Short-Term Load Forecasting Using ARIMA Model For

More information

Application of Artificial Neural Network for Short Term Load Forecasting

Application of Artificial Neural Network for Short Term Load Forecasting aerd Scientific Journal of Impact Factor(SJIF): 3.134 e-issn(o): 2348-4470 p-issn(p): 2348-6406 International Journal of Advance Engineering and Research Development Volume 2,Issue 4, April -2015 Application

More information

Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting for Iraqi Power System based on Multiple Linear Regression Method

Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting for Iraqi Power System based on Multiple Linear Regression Method Volume 00 No., August 204 Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting for Iraqi Power System based on Multiple Linear Regression Method Firas M. Tuaimah University of Baghdad Baghdad, Iraq Huda M. Abdul Abass

More information

Implementation of Artificial Neural Network for Short Term Load Forecasting

Implementation of Artificial Neural Network for Short Term Load Forecasting Implementation of Artificial Neural Network for Short Term Load Forecasting Anju Bala * * Research Scholar, E.E. Department, D.C.R. University of Sci. & Technology, Murthal, anju8305@gmail.com N. K. Yadav

More information

The Efficiency of Particle Swarm Optimization Applied on Fuzzy Logic DC Motor Speed Control

The Efficiency of Particle Swarm Optimization Applied on Fuzzy Logic DC Motor Speed Control SERBIAN JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING Vol. 5, No. 2, November 2008, 247-262 The Efficiency of Particle Swarm Optimization Applied on Fuzzy Logic DC Motor Speed Control Boumediene Allaoua 1, Abdessalam

More information

ABSTRACT I. INTRODUCTION II. FUZZY MODEL SRUCTURE

ABSTRACT I. INTRODUCTION II. FUZZY MODEL SRUCTURE International Journal of Scientific Research in Computer Science, Engineering and Information Technology 2018 IJSRCSEIT Volume 3 Issue 6 ISSN : 2456-3307 Temperature Sensitive Short Term Load Forecasting:

More information

ANN and Statistical Theory Based Forecasting and Analysis of Power System Variables

ANN and Statistical Theory Based Forecasting and Analysis of Power System Variables ANN and Statistical Theory Based Forecasting and Analysis of Power System Variables Sruthi V. Nair 1, Poonam Kothari 2, Kushal Lodha 3 1,2,3 Lecturer, G. H. Raisoni Institute of Engineering & Technology,

More information

OPTIMAL DISPATCH OF REAL POWER GENERATION USING PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION: A CASE STUDY OF EGBIN THERMAL STATION

OPTIMAL DISPATCH OF REAL POWER GENERATION USING PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION: A CASE STUDY OF EGBIN THERMAL STATION OPTIMAL DISPATCH OF REAL POWER GENERATION USING PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION: A CASE STUDY OF EGBIN THERMAL STATION Onah C. O. 1, Agber J. U. 2 and Ikule F. T. 3 1, 2, 3 Department of Electrical and Electronics

More information

WEATHER DEPENENT ELECTRICITY MARKET FORECASTING WITH NEURAL NETWORKS, WAVELET AND DATA MINING TECHNIQUES. Z.Y. Dong X. Li Z. Xu K. L.

WEATHER DEPENENT ELECTRICITY MARKET FORECASTING WITH NEURAL NETWORKS, WAVELET AND DATA MINING TECHNIQUES. Z.Y. Dong X. Li Z. Xu K. L. WEATHER DEPENENT ELECTRICITY MARKET FORECASTING WITH NEURAL NETWORKS, WAVELET AND DATA MINING TECHNIQUES Abstract Z.Y. Dong X. Li Z. Xu K. L. Teo School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering

More information

Hybrid PSO-ANN Application for Improved Accuracy of Short Term Load Forecasting

Hybrid PSO-ANN Application for Improved Accuracy of Short Term Load Forecasting Hybrid PSO-ANN Application for Improved Accuracy of Short Term Load Forecasting A. G. ABDULLAH, G. M. SURANEGARA, D.L. HAKIM Electrical Engineering Education Department Indonesia University of Education

More information

AN INTELLIGENT HYBRID FUZZY PID CONTROLLER

AN INTELLIGENT HYBRID FUZZY PID CONTROLLER AN INTELLIGENT CONTROLLER Isin Erenoglu Ibrahim Eksin Engin Yesil Mujde Guzelkaya Istanbul Technical University, Faculty of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Control Engineering Department, Maslak,

More information

An efficient approach for short-term load forecasting using historical data

An efficient approach for short-term load forecasting using historical data An efficient approach for short-term load forecasting using historical data D.V.Rajan Damodar Valley Corporation, Durgapur Steel Thermal Power Station, Durgapur, West Bengal, India. Sourav Mallick Department

More information

Application of GA and PSO Tuned Fuzzy Controller for AGC of Three Area Thermal- Thermal-Hydro Power System

Application of GA and PSO Tuned Fuzzy Controller for AGC of Three Area Thermal- Thermal-Hydro Power System International Journal of Computer Theory and Engineering, Vol. 2, No. 2 April, 2 793-82 Application of GA and PSO Tuned Fuzzy Controller for AGC of Three Area Thermal- Thermal-Hydro Power System S. K.

More information

Forecasting of Electric Consumption in a Semiconductor Plant using Time Series Methods

Forecasting of Electric Consumption in a Semiconductor Plant using Time Series Methods Forecasting of Electric Consumption in a Semiconductor Plant using Time Series Methods Prayad B. 1* Somsak S. 2 Spansion Thailand Limited 229 Moo 4, Changwattana Road, Pakkred, Nonthaburi 11120 Nonthaburi,

More information

A FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR FORECASTING STOCK PRICE

A FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR FORECASTING STOCK PRICE A FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR FORECASTING STOCK PRICE Li Sheng Institute of intelligent information engineering Zheiang University Hangzhou, 3007, P. R. China ABSTRACT In this paper, a neural network-driven

More information

Distributed Particle Swarm Optimization

Distributed Particle Swarm Optimization Distributed Particle Swarm Optimization Salman Kahrobaee CSCE 990 Seminar Main Reference: A Comparative Study of Four Parallel and Distributed PSO Methods Leonardo VANNESCHI, Daniele CODECASA and Giancarlo

More information

Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Evaluation and Identification of Electrical Loss in Transformers According to the Energy Consumption

Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Evaluation and Identification of Electrical Loss in Transformers According to the Energy Consumption Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Evaluation and Identification of Electrical Loss in Transformers According to the Energy Consumption ANDRÉ NUNES DE SOUZA, JOSÉ ALFREDO C. ULSON, IVAN NUNES

More information

ON THE USE OF RANDOM VARIABLES IN PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATIONS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF GAUSSIAN AND UNIFORM DISTRIBUTIONS

ON THE USE OF RANDOM VARIABLES IN PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATIONS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF GAUSSIAN AND UNIFORM DISTRIBUTIONS J. of Electromagn. Waves and Appl., Vol. 23, 711 721, 2009 ON THE USE OF RANDOM VARIABLES IN PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATIONS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF GAUSSIAN AND UNIFORM DISTRIBUTIONS L. Zhang, F. Yang, and

More information

Secondary Frequency Control of Microgrids In Islanded Operation Mode and Its Optimum Regulation Based on the Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Secondary Frequency Control of Microgrids In Islanded Operation Mode and Its Optimum Regulation Based on the Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm International Academic Institute for Science and Technology International Academic Journal of Science and Engineering Vol. 3, No. 1, 2016, pp. 159-169. ISSN 2454-3896 International Academic Journal of

More information

Short Term Load Forecasting for Bakhtar Region Electric Co. Using Multi Layer Perceptron and Fuzzy Inference systems

Short Term Load Forecasting for Bakhtar Region Electric Co. Using Multi Layer Perceptron and Fuzzy Inference systems Short Term Load Forecasting for Bakhtar Region Electric Co. Using Multi Layer Perceptron and Fuzzy Inference systems R. Barzamini, M.B. Menhaj, A. Khosravi, SH. Kamalvand Department of Electrical Engineering,

More information

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Learning through Swarm Intelligence

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Learning through Swarm Intelligence Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Learning through Swarm Intelligence E.I. Papageorgiou,3, K.E. Parsopoulos 2,3, P.P. Groumpos,3, and M.N. Vrahatis 2,3 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University

More information

Short Term Load Forecasting Using Multi Layer Perceptron

Short Term Load Forecasting Using Multi Layer Perceptron International OPEN ACCESS Journal Of Modern Engineering Research (IJMER) Short Term Load Forecasting Using Multi Layer Perceptron S.Hema Chandra 1, B.Tejaswini 2, B.suneetha 3, N.chandi Priya 4, P.Prathima

More information

A Hybrid Method of CART and Artificial Neural Network for Short-term term Load Forecasting in Power Systems

A Hybrid Method of CART and Artificial Neural Network for Short-term term Load Forecasting in Power Systems A Hybrid Method of CART and Artificial Neural Network for Short-term term Load Forecasting in Power Systems Hiroyuki Mori Dept. of Electrical & Electronics Engineering Meiji University Tama-ku, Kawasaki

More information

PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMISATION (PSO)

PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMISATION (PSO) PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMISATION (PSO) Perry Brown Alexander Mathews Image: http://www.cs264.org/2009/projects/web/ding_yiyang/ding-robb/pso.jpg Introduction Concept first introduced by Kennedy and Eberhart

More information

A Comparison of the Forecast Performance of. Double Seasonal ARIMA and Double Seasonal. ARFIMA Models of Electricity Load Demand

A Comparison of the Forecast Performance of. Double Seasonal ARIMA and Double Seasonal. ARFIMA Models of Electricity Load Demand Applied Mathematical Sciences, Vol. 6, 0, no. 35, 6705-67 A Comparison of the Forecast Performance of Double Seasonal ARIMA and Double Seasonal ARFIMA Models of Electricity Load Demand Siti Normah Hassan

More information

Evolutionary Functional Link Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Neural System for Exchange Rate Prediction

Evolutionary Functional Link Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Neural System for Exchange Rate Prediction Evolutionary Functional Link Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Neural System for Exchange Rate Prediction 3. Introduction Currency exchange rate is an important element in international finance. It is one of the chaotic,

More information

A. Bakirtzis, S. Kiartzis, V. Petridis and Ath. Kehagias. "Short Term Load Forecasting using a Bayesian Combination Method"

A. Bakirtzis, S. Kiartzis, V. Petridis and Ath. Kehagias. Short Term Load Forecasting using a Bayesian Combination Method A. Bairtzis, S. Kiartzis, V. Petridis and Ath. Kehagias. "Short Term Load Forecasting using a Bayesian Combination Method" This paper has appeared in the journal: Int. Journal of Electrical Power and Energy

More information

Artificial Neural Network for Energy Demand Forecast

Artificial Neural Network for Energy Demand Forecast International Journal of Electrical and Electronic Science 2018; 5(1): 8-13 http://www.aascit.org/journal/ijees ISSN: 2375-2998 Artificial Neural Network for Energy Demand Forecast Akpama Eko James, Vincent

More information

B-Positive Particle Swarm Optimization (B.P.S.O)

B-Positive Particle Swarm Optimization (B.P.S.O) Int. J. Com. Net. Tech. 1, No. 2, 95-102 (2013) 95 International Journal of Computing and Network Technology http://dx.doi.org/10.12785/ijcnt/010201 B-Positive Particle Swarm Optimization (B.P.S.O) Muhammad

More information

Vedant V. Sonar 1, H. D. Mehta 2. Abstract

Vedant V. Sonar 1, H. D. Mehta 2. Abstract Load Shedding Optimization in Power System Using Swarm Intelligence-Based Optimization Techniques Vedant V. Sonar 1, H. D. Mehta 2 1 Electrical Engineering Department, L.D. College of Engineering Ahmedabad,

More information

Beta Damping Quantum Behaved Particle Swarm Optimization

Beta Damping Quantum Behaved Particle Swarm Optimization Beta Damping Quantum Behaved Particle Swarm Optimization Tarek M. Elbarbary, Hesham A. Hefny, Atef abel Moneim Institute of Statistical Studies and Research, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt tareqbarbary@yahoo.com,

More information

Regular paper. Particle Swarm Optimization Applied to the Economic Dispatch Problem

Regular paper. Particle Swarm Optimization Applied to the Economic Dispatch Problem Rafik Labdani Linda Slimani Tarek Bouktir Electrical Engineering Department, Oum El Bouaghi University, 04000 Algeria. rlabdani@yahoo.fr J. Electrical Systems 2-2 (2006): 95-102 Regular paper Particle

More information

International Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research, Volume 8, Issue 1, January-2017 ISSN

International Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research, Volume 8, Issue 1, January-2017 ISSN ISSN 2229-5518 33 Voltage Regulation for a Photovoltaic System Connected to Grid by Using a Swarm Optimization Techniques Ass.prof. Dr.Mohamed Ebrahim El sayed Dept. of Electrical Engineering Al-Azhar

More information

Optimal Placement and Sizing of Distributed Generation for Power Loss Reduction using Particle Swarm Optimization

Optimal Placement and Sizing of Distributed Generation for Power Loss Reduction using Particle Swarm Optimization Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Energy Procedia 34 (2013 ) 307 317 10th Eco-Energy and Materials Science and Engineering (EMSES2012) Optimal Placement and Sizing of Distributed Generation for

More information

Optimal capacitor placement and sizing using combined fuzzy-hpso method

Optimal capacitor placement and sizing using combined fuzzy-hpso method MultiCraft International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology Vol. 2, No. 6, 2010, pp. 75-84 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING, SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY www.ijest-ng.com 2010 MultiCraft Limited.

More information

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization to Adaptive Controller Leandro dos Santos Coelho 1 and Fabio A. Guerra 2

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization to Adaptive Controller Leandro dos Santos Coelho 1 and Fabio A. Guerra 2 Applying Particle Swarm Optimization to Adaptive Controller Leandro dos Santos Coelho 1 and Fabio A. Guerra 2 1 Production and Systems Engineering Graduate Program, PPGEPS Pontifical Catholic University

More information

Optimal Placement of Multi DG Unit in Distribution Systems Using Evolutionary Algorithms

Optimal Placement of Multi DG Unit in Distribution Systems Using Evolutionary Algorithms IOSR Journal of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (IOSR-JEEE) e-issn: 2278-1676,p-ISSN: 2320-3331, Volume, Issue 6 Ver. IV (Nov Dec. 2014), PP 47-52 www.iosrjournals.org Optimal Placement of Multi

More information

A Fuzzy Logic Based Short Term Load Forecast for the Holidays

A Fuzzy Logic Based Short Term Load Forecast for the Holidays A Fuzzy Logic Based Short Term Load Forecast for the Holidays Hasan H. Çevik and Mehmet Çunkaş Abstract Electric load forecasting is important for economic operation and planning. Holiday load consumptions

More information

A self-guided Particle Swarm Optimization with Independent Dynamic Inertia Weights Setting on Each Particle

A self-guided Particle Swarm Optimization with Independent Dynamic Inertia Weights Setting on Each Particle Appl. Math. Inf. Sci. 7, No. 2, 545-552 (2013) 545 Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences An International Journal A self-guided Particle Swarm Optimization with Independent Dynamic Inertia Weights

More information

A Particle Swarm Optimization for Reactive Power Optimization

A Particle Swarm Optimization for Reactive Power Optimization ISSN (e): 2250 3005 Vol, 04 Issue, 11 November 2014 International Journal of Computational Engineering Research (IJCER) A Particle Swarm Optimization for Reactive Power Optimization Suresh Kumar 1, Sunil

More information

A Novel Approach for Complete Identification of Dynamic Fractional Order Systems Using Stochastic Optimization Algorithms and Fractional Calculus

A Novel Approach for Complete Identification of Dynamic Fractional Order Systems Using Stochastic Optimization Algorithms and Fractional Calculus 5th International Conference on Electrical and Computer Engineering ICECE 2008, 20-22 December 2008, Dhaka, Bangladesh A Novel Approach for Complete Identification of Dynamic Fractional Order Systems Using

More information

Fuzzy adaptive catfish particle swarm optimization

Fuzzy adaptive catfish particle swarm optimization ORIGINAL RESEARCH Fuzzy adaptive catfish particle swarm optimization Li-Yeh Chuang, Sheng-Wei Tsai, Cheng-Hong Yang. Institute of Biotechnology and Chemical Engineering, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan

More information

International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-issn: Volume: 03 Issue: 03 Mar p-issn:

International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-issn: Volume: 03 Issue: 03 Mar p-issn: Optimum Size and Location of Distributed Generation and for Loss Reduction using different optimization technique in Power Distribution Network Renu Choudhary 1, Pushpendra Singh 2 1Student, Dept of electrical

More information

OPTIMAL CAPACITOR PLACEMENT USING FUZZY LOGIC

OPTIMAL CAPACITOR PLACEMENT USING FUZZY LOGIC CHAPTER - 5 OPTIMAL CAPACITOR PLACEMENT USING FUZZY LOGIC 5.1 INTRODUCTION The power supplied from electrical distribution system is composed of both active and reactive components. Overhead lines, transformers

More information

Short term electric load forecasting using Neuro-fuzzy modeling for nonlinear system identification

Short term electric load forecasting using Neuro-fuzzy modeling for nonlinear system identification Short term electric load forecasting using Neuro-fuzzy modeling for nonlinear system identification M. Mordjaoui*. B. Boudjema*. M. Bouabaz** R. Daira* *LRPCSI Laboratory, University of 20August, Skikda

More information

APPLICATION OF RADIAL BASIS FUNCTION NEURAL NETWORK, TO ESTIMATE THE STATE OF HEALTH FOR LFP BATTERY

APPLICATION OF RADIAL BASIS FUNCTION NEURAL NETWORK, TO ESTIMATE THE STATE OF HEALTH FOR LFP BATTERY International Journal of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (IJEEE) ISSN(P): 2278-9944; ISSN(E): 2278-9952 Vol. 7, Issue 1, Dec - Jan 2018, 1-6 IASET APPLICATION OF RADIAL BASIS FUNCTION NEURAL NETWORK,

More information

NEURO-FUZZY CONTROL IN LOAD FORECASTING OF POWER SECTOR

NEURO-FUZZY CONTROL IN LOAD FORECASTING OF POWER SECTOR NEURO-FUZZY CONTROL IN LOAD FORECASTING OF POWER SECTOR S.HEMA CHANDRA 1,VENDOTI MOUNIKA 2 & GUNTURU VANDANA 3 1,2,3 Department of Electronics and Control Engineering, Sree Vidyanikethan Engineering College

More information

Binary Particle Swarm Optimization with Crossover Operation for Discrete Optimization

Binary Particle Swarm Optimization with Crossover Operation for Discrete Optimization Binary Particle Swarm Optimization with Crossover Operation for Discrete Optimization Deepak Singh Raipur Institute of Technology Raipur, India Vikas Singh ABV- Indian Institute of Information Technology

More information

OPTIMAL LOCATION AND SIZING OF DISTRIBUTED GENERATOR IN RADIAL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM USING OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUE FOR MINIMIZATION OF LOSSES

OPTIMAL LOCATION AND SIZING OF DISTRIBUTED GENERATOR IN RADIAL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM USING OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUE FOR MINIMIZATION OF LOSSES 780 OPTIMAL LOCATIO AD SIZIG OF DISTRIBUTED GEERATOR I RADIAL DISTRIBUTIO SYSTEM USIG OPTIMIZATIO TECHIQUE FOR MIIMIZATIO OF LOSSES A. Vishwanadh 1, G. Sasi Kumar 2, Dr. D. Ravi Kumar 3 1 (Department of

More information

ACTA UNIVERSITATIS APULENSIS No 11/2006

ACTA UNIVERSITATIS APULENSIS No 11/2006 ACTA UNIVERSITATIS APULENSIS No /26 Proceedings of the International Conference on Theory and Application of Mathematics and Informatics ICTAMI 25 - Alba Iulia, Romania FAR FROM EQUILIBRIUM COMPUTATION

More information

Neural network application in power systems load forecasting

Neural network application in power systems load forecasting University of Wollongong Research Online University of Wollongong Thesis Collection University of Wollongong Thesis Collections 1994 Neural network application in power systems load forecasting Ali Yazdian

More information

How Accurate is My Forecast?

How Accurate is My Forecast? How Accurate is My Forecast? Tao Hong, PhD Utilities Business Unit, SAS 15 May 2012 PLEASE STAND BY Today s event will begin at 11:00am EDT The audio portion of the presentation will be heard through your

More information

Electric Load Forecasting: An Interval Type-II Fuzzy Inference System Based Approach

Electric Load Forecasting: An Interval Type-II Fuzzy Inference System Based Approach Electric Load Forecasting: An Interval Type-II Fuzzy Inference System Based Approach Nirmal Roy #, Prasid Mitra #2 Department of Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University Abstract Accurate prediction

More information

Smart Meter Based Short-Term Load Forecasting for Residential Customers

Smart Meter Based Short-Term Load Forecasting for Residential Customers Smart Meter Based Short-Term Load Forecasting for Residential Customers M. Ghofrani, SM IEEE, M. Hassanzadeh, SM IEEE, M. Etezadi-Amoli, life Sr. Member IEEE, M. S. Fadali, Sr. Member IEEE Department of

More information

Repetitive control mechanism of disturbance rejection using basis function feedback with fuzzy regression approach

Repetitive control mechanism of disturbance rejection using basis function feedback with fuzzy regression approach Repetitive control mechanism of disturbance rejection using basis function feedback with fuzzy regression approach *Jeng-Wen Lin 1), Chih-Wei Huang 2) and Pu Fun Shen 3) 1) Department of Civil Engineering,

More information

Implementation of GCPSO for Multi-objective VAr Planning with SVC and Its Comparison with GA and PSO

Implementation of GCPSO for Multi-objective VAr Planning with SVC and Its Comparison with GA and PSO Implementation of GCPSO for Multi-obective VAr Planning with SVC and Its Comparison with GA and PSO Malihe M. Farsang Hossein Nezamabadi-pour and Kwang Y. Lee, Fellow, IEEE Abstract In this paper, Guaranteed

More information

Heat Load Forecasting of District Heating System Based on Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Heat Load Forecasting of District Heating System Based on Numerical Weather Prediction Model 2nd International Forum on Electrical Engineering and Automation (IFEEA 2) Heat Load Forecasting of District Heating System Based on Numerical Weather Prediction Model YANG Hongying, a, JIN Shuanglong,

More information

Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences. A Comparative Analysis of Neural Network based Short Term Load Forecast for Seasonal Prediction

Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences. A Comparative Analysis of Neural Network based Short Term Load Forecast for Seasonal Prediction Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 7() Sep 03, Pages: 49-48 AENSI Journals Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences Journal home page: www.ajbasweb.com A Comparative Analysis of

More information

Long Term Load Forecasting Using SA-ANN Model: a Comparative Analysis on Real Case Khorasan Regional Load

Long Term Load Forecasting Using SA-ANN Model: a Comparative Analysis on Real Case Khorasan Regional Load No. E-13-AAA-0000 Long Term Load Forecasting Using SA-ANN Model: a Comparative Analysis on Real Case Khorasan Regional Load Rasool Heydari Electrical Department Faculty of Engineering Sadjad Institute

More information

A SEASONAL FUZZY TIME SERIES FORECASTING METHOD BASED ON GUSTAFSON-KESSEL FUZZY CLUSTERING *

A SEASONAL FUZZY TIME SERIES FORECASTING METHOD BASED ON GUSTAFSON-KESSEL FUZZY CLUSTERING * No.2, Vol.1, Winter 2012 2012 Published by JSES. A SEASONAL FUZZY TIME SERIES FORECASTING METHOD BASED ON GUSTAFSON-KESSEL * Faruk ALPASLAN a, Ozge CAGCAG b Abstract Fuzzy time series forecasting methods

More information

SSSC Modeling and Damping Controller Design for Damping Low Frequency Oscillations

SSSC Modeling and Damping Controller Design for Damping Low Frequency Oscillations SSSC Modeling and Damping Controller Design for Damping Low Frequency Oscillations Mohammed Osman Hassan, Ahmed Khaled Al-Haj Assistant Professor, Department of Electrical Engineering, Sudan University

More information

Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting

Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting 1 Short-erm Electricity Price Forecasting A. Arabali, E. Chalo, Student Members IEEE, M. Etezadi-Amoli, LSM, IEEE, M. S. Fadali, SM IEEE Abstract Price forecasting has become an important tool in the planning

More information

Archive of SID. Optimal Design of Three-Phase Induction Motor Using Particle Swarm Optimization.

Archive of SID. Optimal Design of Three-Phase Induction Motor Using Particle Swarm Optimization. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING VOL. 6 NO. 2 SUMMER-FALL 27 15 Optimal Design of Three-Phase Induction Motor Using Particle Swarm Optimization R. Kannan R. Bhuvaneswari and S. Subramanian

More information

LONG - TERM INDUSTRIAL LOAD FORECASTING AND PLANNING USING NEURAL NETWORKS TECHNIQUE AND FUZZY INFERENCE METHOD ABSTRACT

LONG - TERM INDUSTRIAL LOAD FORECASTING AND PLANNING USING NEURAL NETWORKS TECHNIQUE AND FUZZY INFERENCE METHOD ABSTRACT LONG - TERM NDUSTRAL LOAD FORECASTNG AND PLANNNG USNG NEURAL NETWORKS TECHNQUE AND FUZZY NFERENCE METHOD M. A. Farahat Zagazig University, Zagazig, Egypt ABSTRACT Load forecasting plays a dominant part

More information

Application of Edge Coloring of a Fuzzy Graph

Application of Edge Coloring of a Fuzzy Graph Application of Edge Coloring of a Fuzzy Graph Poornima B. Research Scholar B.I.E.T., Davangere. Karnataka, India. Dr. V. Ramaswamy Professor and Head I.S. & E Department, B.I.E.T. Davangere. Karnataka,

More information

The Dayton Power and Light Company Load Profiling Methodology Revised 7/1/2017

The Dayton Power and Light Company Load Profiling Methodology Revised 7/1/2017 The Dayton Power and Light Company Load Profiling Methodology Revised 7/1/2017 Overview of Methodology Dayton Power and Light (DP&L) load profiles will be used to estimate hourly loads for customers without

More information

Influence of knn-based Load Forecasting Errors on Optimal Energy Production

Influence of knn-based Load Forecasting Errors on Optimal Energy Production Influence of knn-based Load Forecasting Errors on Optimal Energy Production Alicia Troncoso Lora 1, José C. Riquelme 1, José Luís Martínez Ramos 2, Jesús M. Riquelme Santos 2, and Antonio Gómez Expósito

More information

Reactive Power and Voltage Control of Power Systems Using Modified PSO

Reactive Power and Voltage Control of Power Systems Using Modified PSO J. Energy Power Sources Vol. 2, No. 5, 2015, pp. 182-188 Received: March 29, 2015, Published: May 30, 2015 Journal of Energy and Power Sources www.ethanpublishing.com Reactive Power and Voltage Control

More information

Discrete evaluation and the particle swarm algorithm

Discrete evaluation and the particle swarm algorithm Volume 12 Discrete evaluation and the particle swarm algorithm Tim Hendtlass and Tom Rodgers Centre for Intelligent Systems and Complex Processes Swinburne University of Technology P. O. Box 218 Hawthorn

More information

Capacitor Placement for Economical Electrical Systems using Ant Colony Search Algorithm

Capacitor Placement for Economical Electrical Systems using Ant Colony Search Algorithm Capacitor Placement for Economical Electrical Systems using Ant Colony Search Algorithm Bharat Solanki Abstract The optimal capacitor placement problem involves determination of the location, number, type

More information

Research Article Weather Forecasting Using Sliding Window Algorithm

Research Article Weather Forecasting Using Sliding Window Algorithm ISRN Signal Processing Volume 23, Article ID 5654, 5 pages http://dx.doi.org/.55/23/5654 Research Article Weather Forecasting Using Sliding Window Algorithm Piyush Kapoor and Sarabjeet Singh Bedi 2 KvantumInc.,Gurgaon22,India

More information

Data and prognosis for renewable energy

Data and prognosis for renewable energy The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Department of Electrical Engineering Project code: FYP_27 Data and prognosis for renewable energy by Choi Man Hin 14072258D Final Report Bachelor of Engineering (Honours)

More information

Three Steps toward Tuning the Coordinate Systems in Nature-Inspired Optimization Algorithms

Three Steps toward Tuning the Coordinate Systems in Nature-Inspired Optimization Algorithms Three Steps toward Tuning the Coordinate Systems in Nature-Inspired Optimization Algorithms Yong Wang and Zhi-Zhong Liu School of Information Science and Engineering Central South University ywang@csu.edu.cn

More information

EEE 8005 Student Directed Learning (SDL) Industrial Automation Fuzzy Logic

EEE 8005 Student Directed Learning (SDL) Industrial Automation Fuzzy Logic EEE 8005 Student Directed Learning (SDL) Industrial utomation Fuzzy Logic Desire location z 0 Rot ( y, φ ) Nail cos( φ) 0 = sin( φ) 0 0 0 0 sin( φ) 0 cos( φ) 0 0 0 0 z 0 y n (0,a,0) y 0 y 0 z n End effector

More information

A new method for short-term load forecasting based on chaotic time series and neural network

A new method for short-term load forecasting based on chaotic time series and neural network A new method for short-term load forecasting based on chaotic time series and neural network Sajjad Kouhi*, Navid Taghizadegan Electrical Engineering Department, Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Tabriz,

More information

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK WITH HYBRID TAGUCHI-GENETIC ALGORITHM FOR NONLINEAR MIMO MODEL OF MACHINING PROCESSES

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK WITH HYBRID TAGUCHI-GENETIC ALGORITHM FOR NONLINEAR MIMO MODEL OF MACHINING PROCESSES International Journal of Innovative Computing, Information and Control ICIC International c 2013 ISSN 1349-4198 Volume 9, Number 4, April 2013 pp. 1455 1475 ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK WITH HYBRID TAGUCHI-GENETIC

More information

Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Soft Computing Techniques

Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Soft Computing Techniques Int. J. Communications, Networ and System Sciences, 2010, 3, 273-279 doi:10.4236/ijcns.2010.33035 Published Online March 2010 (http://www.scirp.org/journal/ijcns/). Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Soft

More information

Distributed vs Bulk Power in Distribution Systems Considering Distributed Generation

Distributed vs Bulk Power in Distribution Systems Considering Distributed Generation Distributed vs Bulk Power in Distribution Systems Considering Distributed Generation Abdullah A. Alghamdi 1 and Prof. Yusuf A. Al-Turki 2 1 Ministry Of Education, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. 2 King Abdulaziz

More information

WIND SPEED ESTIMATION IN SAUDI ARABIA USING THE PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION (PSO)

WIND SPEED ESTIMATION IN SAUDI ARABIA USING THE PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION (PSO) WIND SPEED ESTIMATION IN SAUDI ARABIA USING THE PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION (PSO) Mohamed Ahmed Mohandes Shafique Rehman King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals Saeed Badran Electrical Engineering

More information

Univariate versus Multivariate Models for Short-term Electricity Load Forecasting

Univariate versus Multivariate Models for Short-term Electricity Load Forecasting Univariate versus Multivariate Models for Short-term Electricity Load Forecasting Guilherme Guilhermino Neto 1, Samuel Belini Defilippo 2, Henrique S. Hippert 3 1 IFES Campus Linhares. guilherme.neto@ifes.edu.br

More information

Three Steps toward Tuning the Coordinate Systems in Nature-Inspired Optimization Algorithms

Three Steps toward Tuning the Coordinate Systems in Nature-Inspired Optimization Algorithms Three Steps toward Tuning the Coordinate Systems in Nature-Inspired Optimization Algorithms Yong Wang and Zhi-Zhong Liu School of Information Science and Engineering Central South University ywang@csu.edu.cn

More information

LOAD FORECASTING APPLICATIONS for THE ENERGY SECTOR

LOAD FORECASTING APPLICATIONS for THE ENERGY SECTOR LOAD FORECASTING APPLICATIONS for THE ENERGY SECTOR Boris Bizjak, Univerza v Mariboru, FERI 26.2.2016 1 A) Short-term load forecasting at industrial plant Ravne: Load forecasting using linear regression,

More information