Evaluating Electron Density Peak Height Analytical Model (OE_hmF2) for Real-time IRI

Transcription

1 Evaluating Electron Density Peak Height Analytical Model (OE_hmF2) for Real-time IRI D. Altadill 1, E. Blanch 1, M. Mosert 2, D. Buresova 3, T. L. Gulyaeva 4, E. Gularte 5, R. G. Ezquer 6, and A. M. Gulisano 7 (1) Observatorio del Ebro (OE), Univ. Ramon Llull CSIC,SPAIN (2) ICATE, CONICET, ARGENTINA (3) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, ASCR, CZECH REPUBLIC (4) IZMIRAN, Moscow, RUSSIA (5) GESA, FCAGUniv. Nacional de La Plata, ARGENTINA (6) Univ. Tecnológica Nacional, Univ. Nacional de Tucumán, CONICET, ARGENTINA (7) Instituto Antártico Argentino/DNA, IAFE (UBA-CONICET), FCEyN UBA, ARGENTINA IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

2 OUTLINE Motivation * To present a near real-time forecasting tool for the hmf2. * To evaluate OE_hmF2 performance for disturbed intervals. Modeling Approach * Global Climatological model for hmf2 hmf2 Q. * Regional Disturbance model for hmf2 ΔhmF2. * OE_hmF2 model workflow. Results * Model performance for disturbed intervals of current solar cycle 24. * Comparison also with IZMIRAN hmf2top model. Discussion IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

3 MOTIVATION Current IRI hmf2 miss-modeling * Low equatorial latitudes & under disturbed conditions IRI - STORM Captures effects on density. Fails predicting + effects on density. Insensitive to height disturbances. hmf2 disturbances aren t modeled so far. IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

4 MOTIVATION Global Empirical Model LSIGWM (Deminova et al., 1998) Empirical Anticorrelation ΔfoF2 & ΔhmF2 (Gulyaeva, 2012) Valid at night-time only: Δh'F2 ΔhmF2. hmf2top model works ideally when electron density is depleted. IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

5 MODELING APPROACH Analytical Model SHA * Spherical Harmonic Analysis SHA. Quiet-time Pattern hmf2 Q n m * Gauss coefficients: Time & Solar Activity dependent. * Approximate LT to φ. N = 8; m 4; q = 2 IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

6 MODELING APPROACH Disturbed Pattern ΔhmF2 * Strong Storms. * Reference Time t 0 : Bz -10 nt * Triggering: ΔBz 20 nt. * Superposed Epoch analysis. * Average Gaussian like ΔhmF2 Pattern. * The functions coefficients Ai, Bi, and Ci have simple linear dependence with IMF Bz, Season and LT. IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

7 QUIET MODEL RESULTS Model Output hmf2 Q (12 UT) IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

8 QUIET MODEL RESULTS hmf2 Q Metrics compared to IRI IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

9 DISTURBED MODEL RESULTS ΔhmF2 Model Performance IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

10 DISTURBED MODEL RESULTS Metrics of Regional ΔhmF2 compared with IRI-Storm The average RMSE of the ΔhmF2 model compares to the average standard deviation of the hmf2 the four quietest adjacent days to the disturbed event. IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

11 OE_hmF2 MODEL WORKFLOW SH hmf2 Q Model Real-Time IMF Data ACE NO Trigger ΔhmF2 Bz -10 nt ΔBz 20 nt YES SH hmf2 Q Model ΔhmF2 + hmf2 Q Real-Time Tool OE_hmF2 IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

12 REAL-TIME hmf2 MODEL RESULTS Performance of the real-time forecasting tool of OE_hmF2 IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

13 OE_hmF2 MODEL RESULTS Storm on 11 th October of 2010 * PQ052 reports two weak uplifts. * EB040 observes two uplifts (2 nd very weak). * PSJ5J reports two uplifts. * San Martín observes one single uplift. * OE_hmF2 fails getting correct magnitude of the disturbance but predicts the uplifts. * hmf2top model fails predicting the uplifts. IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

14 OE_hmF2 MODEL RESULTS Storm on 26 th September of 2011 * PQ052 reports one single uplift. * EB040 observes consecutive uplifts. * PSJ5J reports two uplifts. * San Martín observes one single uplift and important data gaps. * OE_hmF2 predicts well the uplifts and it gets reasonable disturbance magnitudes. * hmf2top model fails predicting the uplifts. Wrong results if not ionosonde data is available (derived from GIM-TEC maps). IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

15 OE_hmF2 MODEL RESULTS Storm on 9 th March of 2012 * PQ052 reports one single uplift. * EB040 observes one single uplifts. * PSJ5J reports consecutive uplifts. * La Plata observes consecutive uplifts. * San Martín observes important data gaps. * OE_hmF2 predicts the uplifts but fails getting correct time and magnitude of the disturbance in some stations. Also for La Plata station (34.9S, 302.1E). * hmf2top predicts the disturbance for PSJ5J but fails for the other stations. IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

16 OE_hmF2 MODEL RESULTS Disturbance on 12 th March of 2012 * PQ052, EB040 and San Martín does not observe disturbed hmf2. * PSJ5J reports one single uplift. * La Plata observes a single uplift also but a weak one. * OE_hmF2 fails predicting the single uplifts for PQ052 and EB040. OE_hmF2 predicts the first uplifts for PSJ5J and La Plata but fails getting correct magnitudes. Also fails predicting the second uplifts for PSJ5J and La Plata. * hmf2top does not predict disturbance for any of the stations. IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

17 OE_hmF2 MODEL RESULTS Storm on 9 th October of 2012 * PQ052 reports two weak uplifts. * EB040 observes two uplifts also with a sharp one. * PSJ5J reports one single uplift. * OE_hmF2 predicts the two uplifts for PQ052 but fails getting the correct magnitudes. * OE_hmF2 predicts well the first uplift for EB040 but fails getting correct timing and magnitude of the second one. * OE_hmF2 predicts reasonably well the disturbance for PSJ5J but the first uplift is not observed. * hmf2top does not predict disturbance for any of the stations. IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

18 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION * Near-real time forecasting tool for predicting hmf2 Combining Gobal Climatological and Regional Disturbance models. OE_hmF2 model has an analytical formulation bounded to solar activity, season, local-time and IMF Bz. OE_hmF2 can predict hmf2 disturbances caused by strong storms by 1 3 hours ahead. * Validation of OE_ΔhmF2 at different latitudes OE_hmF2 predicts reasonably well disturbances driven by strong storms but fails getting correct magnitudes or timings. It needs better tuning. OE_hmF2 predicts better than hmf2top model which is based on empirical anticorrelation of ΔfoF2 & ΔhmF2 and works ideally when electron density is depleted. * Future Improving the performance of the OE_hmF2 with new data inputs. ounding To contribute to a new generation of models and tools for improving the forecasting of the near Earth s plasma. IRI Workshop 2013 IRI and GNSS ; Olsztyn POLAND; June,

19 GRACIAS! Acknowledgments NASA & ACE teams for providing Solar and IMF data. GIRO Data Base and data suppliers for providing ionospheric data. RAPEAS Workshop; La Plata ARGENTINA; 2012/11/