Nowcasting. Domenico Giannone Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR

Transcription

1 Nowcasting Domenico Giannone Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR 3rd VALE-EPGE Global Economic Conference Business Cycles Rio de Janeiro, May 2013

2 Nowcasting Contraction of the terms Now and Forecasting Meteorology Nowcasting forecasting up to 6-12 hours ahead (long tradition, since 1860)

3 Nowcasting Contraction of the terms Now and Forecasting Meteorology Nowcasting forecasting up to 6-12 hours ahead (long tradition, since 1860) Only recently introduced in economics: Evans, 2005 IJCB; Giannone, Reichlin and Small, JME 2008

4 Nowcasting Contraction of the terms Now and Forecasting Meteorology Nowcasting forecasting up to 6-12 hours ahead (long tradition, since 1860) Only recently introduced in economics: Evans, 2005 IJCB; Giannone, Reichlin and Small, JME 2008 Why? Key variables released at low frequency and with long publication delays. Example, US GDP: Advanced estimate 4 weeks after end of the reference quarter Example, EA GDP: Flash estimate 6 weeks after end of the reference quarter

5 Nowcasting Contraction of the terms Now and Forecasting Meteorology Nowcasting forecasting up to 6-12 hours ahead (long tradition, since 1860) Only recently introduced in economics: Evans, 2005 IJCB; Giannone, Reichlin and Small, JME 2008 Why? Key variables released at low frequency and with long publication delays. Example, US GDP: Advanced estimate 4 weeks after end of the reference quarter Example, EA GDP: Flash estimate 6 weeks after end of the reference quarter Economic Nowcasting: Forecasting the near future, the present and even recent past.

6 This Presetation 1 Nowcasting and the Real-Time Data-Flow with M. Bańbura, M. Modugno and L. Reichlin Prepared for the Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 2, Elsevier-North Holland 2 Nowcasting China with S. Miranda Agrippino and M. Modugno In progress 3 Nowcasting Brazil M. Modugno In progress

7 Macroeconomic Forecasting and Conjuctural Analysis predicting the future: formal economic modeling of the relations among key macroeconomic aggregates predicting the present: simplified heuristic scrutiny of a variety of conjunctural data forecasts are updated infrequently disregarding the high-frequency flow of conjectural information quarterly updates (SPF and Central Banks), bi-annual updates (OECD, IMF)

8 Macroeconomic Forecasting and Conjuctural Analysis predicting the future: formal economic modeling of the relations among key macroeconomic aggregates predicting the present: simplified heuristic scrutiny of a variety of conjunctural data forecasts are updated infrequently disregarding the high-frequency flow of conjectural information quarterly updates (SPF and Central Banks), bi-annual updates (OECD, IMF) Research questions How important is nowcasting relative to longer horizon forecasting?

9 Macroeconomic Forecasting and Conjuctural Analysis predicting the future: formal economic modeling of the relations among key macroeconomic aggregates predicting the present: simplified heuristic scrutiny of a variety of conjunctural data forecasts are updated infrequently disregarding the high-frequency flow of conjectural information quarterly updates (SPF and Central Banks), bi-annual updates (OECD, IMF) Research questions How important is nowcasting relative to longer horizon forecasting? Can we predict the present? How relevant is informal judgement?

10 Macroeconomic Forecasting and Conjuctural Analysis predicting the future: formal economic modeling of the relations among key macroeconomic aggregates predicting the present: simplified heuristic scrutiny of a variety of conjunctural data forecasts are updated infrequently disregarding the high-frequency flow of conjectural information quarterly updates (SPF and Central Banks), bi-annual updates (OECD, IMF) Research questions How important is nowcasting relative to longer horizon forecasting? Can we predict the present? How relevant is informal judgement? How relevant is the conjectural information? How often should we update the predictions?

11 How important is nowcasting relative to longer horizon forecasting? Very!!!! Forecasting GDP in real time MSFE relative to constant growth Horizon GB SPF Evaluation sample 1992Q1 through 2001Q4

12 How important is nowcasting relative to longer horizon forecasting? Very!!!! Forecasting GDP in real time MSFE relative to constant growth Horizon GB SPF Evaluation sample 1992Q1 through 2001Q4 The present is the only horizon of predictability. Unpredictability beyond current quarter Accuracy of macroeconomic projections heavily rely on starting conditions

13 How important is nowcasting relative to longer horizon forecasting? Very!!!! Forecasting GDP in real time MSFE relative to constant growth Horizon GB SPF Evaluation sample 1992Q1 through 2001Q4 The present is the only horizon of predictability. Unpredictability beyond current quarter Accuracy of macroeconomic projections heavily rely on starting conditions How can we predict the present? Can a machine replicate expert judgement?

14 How important is expert Judgement?

15 The Experts!

16 The Computer Nerde

17 Now-Casting US GDP: 10 years of Experience

18 Now-Casting US GDP: 10 years of Experience

19

20 Learning from the Markets Market participants can be viewed as now-casters they obsessively monitor all macroeconomic data to get a view on current and future fundamentals and their effects on policy

21 Learning from the Markets Market participants can be viewed as now-casters they obsessively monitor all macroeconomic data to get a view on current and future fundamentals and their effects on policy The relevant information on the state of the economy is conveyed to markets through the release of macroeconomic reports. Market expectation for the headlines of these reports are collected up to the day before the actual release of the indicator and distributed by data providers (i.e. Bloomberg).

22 Learning from the Markets Market participants can be viewed as now-casters they obsessively monitor all macroeconomic data to get a view on current and future fundamentals and their effects on policy The relevant information on the state of the economy is conveyed to markets through the release of macroeconomic reports. Market expectation for the headlines of these reports are collected up to the day before the actual release of the indicator and distributed by data providers (i.e. Bloomberg). When realizations are different than these expectations, that is when the news are sizeable, the view of the market changes and this leads to changes in asset prices see (Boyd, Hu, and Jagannathan, 2005; Flannery and Protopapadakis, 2002)).

23 Learning from the markets: Bloomberg.com

24 Learning from the Markets Market participants can be viewed as now-casters they obsessively monitor all macroeconomic data to get a view on current and future fundamentals and their effects on policy The relevant information on the state of the economy is conveyed to markets through the release of macroeconomic reports. Market form expectations for the headlines of these reports up to the day before the actual release of the indicator and distributed by data providers (i.e. Bloomberg).

25 Learning from the Markets Market participants can be viewed as now-casters they obsessively monitor all macroeconomic data to get a view on current and future fundamentals and their effects on policy The relevant information on the state of the economy is conveyed to markets through the release of macroeconomic reports. Market form expectations for the headlines of these reports up to the day before the actual release of the indicator and distributed by data providers (i.e. Bloomberg). When realizations are different than these expectations, that is when the news are sizeable, the view of the market changes and this leads to changes in asset prices see (Boyd, Hu, and Jagannathan, 2005; Flannery and Protopapadakis, 2002)).

26 The Real-Time Data-Flow: Last Week...

27 Learning from the Markets Market participants can be viewed as now-casters they obsessively monitor all macroeconomic data to get a view on current and future fundamentals and their effects on policy The relevant information on the state of the economy is conveyed to markets through the release of macroeconomic reports. Market expectation for the headlines of these reports are collected up to the day before the actual release of the indicator and distributed by data providers (i.e. Bloomberg). When realizations are different than these expectations, that is when the news are sizeable, the view of the market changes and this leads to changes in asset prices see (Boyd, Hu, and Jagannathan, 2005; Flannery and Protopapadakis, 2002)).

28 The Real-Time Data-Flow: News

29 The Real-Time Data-Flow: News

30 Employment report on March 10, 2012 From the Bloomberg News: "Employers in the U.S. took on more workers than forecast in February, [...]" "[...] Stocks rose, capping the fourth straight weekly rally for the Standard & Poor s 500 Index [...]" "[...] Yields on benchmark 10-year note climbed to the highest in a week yesterday after the job report reduced speculation Federal Reserve policy makers may hint at next week s meeting that they re moving closer to more monetary stimulus[...]"

31 Employment report on August 3, 2012 From Bloomberg News: "The U.S. economy generated more jobs than forecast in July [...]" "[...] The S&P 500 advanced 1.9 percent to 1, in New York after dropping 1.5 percent in the previous four days [...]" "[...] The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to 1.57 percent from 1.48 percent late yesterday[...]"

32 Employment report on September 7, 2012 Weak jobs report fuels QE3 hopes "[...] U.S. stocks wavered Friday, as investors digested a disappointing August jobs report but hoped the weakness would prompt the Federal Reserve to jumpstart the slowing economy with stimulus when it meets next week. [...]" "[...] The Labor Department reported that 96,000 jobs were added in August, well below the 120,000 jobs that the economists surveyed by CNNMoney were looking for.[...]" "[...] The Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.3%. [...]"

33 Employment report on December 7, 2012 Forbes "Private payroll jobs increased by 146,000 in November above the 93,000 economists expected and the 12-month average of 157,000 per month.[... ] What does this report mean for traders and investors?" "[...] an improving economy will put the pressure on the Fed to launch another round of QE3. This is certainly bad news for precious metals. [...]" "[...]a stronger economy is bad news for Treasuries, especially at a time when they trade at record low yields. So, I will stay away from U.S. Treasuries [...]" "[...] investors may want to buy into economically sensitive sectors - like homebuilding - as higher employment increases the likelihood of people buying homes. [...]"

34 Mimicking Market behavior and Beyond (a) Construct a joint model for all macroeconomic data releases (b) Update the model in real time, in accordance with the real-time data flow Model based forecasts: free of judgement, mood, heading. Translate the news in a common unit What s the impact of the news on GDP?

35 A model of Now-Casting y Q t : GDP at time t. Ω v : vintage of data (quarterly, monthly, possibly daily) available at time v (date of a particular data release)

36 A model of Now-Casting y Q t : GDP at time t. Ω v : vintage of data (quarterly, monthly, possibly daily) available at time v (date of a particular data release) Nowcasting of yt Q : orthogonal projection of yt Q information: ] E [y t Q Ω v, on the available

37 A model of Now-Casting y Q t : GDP at time t. Ω v : vintage of data (quarterly, monthly, possibly daily) available at time v (date of a particular data release) Nowcasting of yt Q : orthogonal projection of yt Q information: ] E [y t Q Ω v, on the available The information set Ω v has particular characteristics: 1 it has a ragged or jagged edge [publication lags differing across series] 2 it contains mixed frequency series, in our case monthly and quarterly 3 it could be large

38 Further features Projections need to be updated regularly ] ] E [y t Q Ω v, E [y t Q Ω v+1,... v, v + 1,..., consecutive data releases Typically the intervals between two consecutive data releases are short (possible couple of days or less) and change over time. Consequently, v has high frequency and it is irregularly spaced.

39 News and nowcast revisions New release the information set expands (new releases): Ω v Ω v+1 [we are abstracting from data revisions]

40 News and nowcast revisions New release the information set expands (new releases): Ω v Ω v+1 [we are abstracting from data revisions] Decompose new forecast in two orthogonal components: ] ] ] E [y t Q Ω v+1 = E [yt Q Ω v + E [yt Q I v+1, }{{}}{{}}{{} new forecast old forecast revision I v+1 information in Ω v+1 orthogonal to Ω v

41 News and nowcast revisions New release the information set expands (new releases): Ω v Ω v+1 [we are abstracting from data revisions] Decompose new forecast in two orthogonal components: ] ] ] E [y t Q Ω v+1 = E [yt Q Ω v + E [yt Q I v+1, }{{}}{{}}{{} new forecast old forecast revision I v+1 information in Ω v+1 orthogonal to Ω v If we have a model that can account for joint dynamics of all variables, we can express the forecast revision as a weighted sum of news from the released variables: [ ] [ ] E yt Q Ω v+1 E yt Q Ω v }{{} forecast revision = j J v+1 b j,t,v+1 For detailed derivation see Banubra and Modugno, ( E [ xj,tj,v+1 x Ω j,tj,v+1 v]). }{{} news

42 What kind of framework? Three desiderata: 1 can capture joint dynamics of inputs and target 2 can be estimated on many series while retaining parsimony 3 can handle jagged edged data and mix frequency Idea: use parsimonious model that can be cast in state space form and use Kalman filter to project and to handle jagged edged data Evans 2005 IJCB; Giannone, Reichlin and Small, 2008 JME

43 Why Large? The Real-Time Data-Flow: This Week

44 Why Large? The Real-Time Data-Flow: Next Week

45 Computing projections. What kind of model? The dynamic factor model x t = µ + Λf t + ε t, f t : (unobserved) common factors; ε t : idiosyncratic components Λ factor loadings Factors are modelled as a VAR process: f t = A 1 f t A p f t p + u t Parsimonious and robust model for Big Data - Forni et al. (2000), Stock and Watson (2002, Bernanke and Boivin (2002), Bai (2003), Giannone et al (2005) Alternative: Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregression + Use Shrinkage (BVAR) to make it work with Big Data. Schorfheide and Song (2011), McCracken, Owyang, Sekhposyan (2013), Ghysels (2012), Felsenstein, Funovits, Deistler, Anderson, Zamani, Chen (2013)

46 Problems and solutions Missing data Kalman filter and smoother can be used to obtain, in an efficient and automatic manner, the projection for any pattern of data availability in Ω v as well as the news I v+1 and expectations needed to compute b j,t,v+1 Mixed frequency Consider lower frequency variables as being periodically missing Estimation: Quasi Maximum likelihood: - robust and feasible Doz, Giannone and Reichlin., 2008 REStat - handling missing data Banbura and Modugno, 2010

47 State space representation with mixed frequencies Example: Let Yt Q denote the vector of (log of) the quarterly flow series. We assume that Y Q t is the sum of daily contributions X t Y Q t = t s=t k+1 X s, t = k, 2k,.... Hence we will have that the stationary series yt Q written as: y Q t = k t s=t k+1 t + 1 s k x s + t k s=t 2 (k 1) = Y Q t s t + 2 k 1 k x s Yt k Q can be where x s = X s X s 1 can be thought of as an unobserved daily growth rate (or difference). See also Modugno 2011: Nowcasting Inflation, t = k, 2k,.

48 The real-time data flow No Name Frequency Publication delay (in days after reference period) 1 Real Gross Domestic Product quarterly 28 2 Industrial Production Index monthly 14 3 Purchasing Manager Index, Manufacturing monthly 3 4 Real Disposable Personal Income monthly 29 5 Unemployment Rate monthly 7 6 Employment, Non-farm Payrolls monthly 7 7 Personal Consumption Expenditure monthly 29 8 Housing Starts monthly 19 9 New Residential Sales monthly Manufacturers New Orders, Durable Goods monthly Producer Price Index, Finished Goods monthly Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers monthly Imports monthly Exports monthly Philadelphia Fed Survey, General Business Conditions monthly Retail and Food Services Sales monthly Conference Board Consumer Confidence monthly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index weekly 4 19 Initial Jobless Claims weekly 4 20 S&P 500 Index daily 1 21 Crude Oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) daily Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate daily Month Treasury Bill, Secondary Market Rate daily 1 24 Trade Weighted Exchange Index, Major Currencies daily 1

49 Daily factor, GDP and its common component 3 Daily Factor GDP growth /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/

50 Filter uncertainty, GDP /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/2009 D W M Q Filter Uncertainty (rhs)

51 Forecasting the Great Recession /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/2009 D W M Q Fcst (rhs) Outturn (rhs)

52 Does information help improving forecasting accuracy? Root Mean Squared Forecast Error (RMSFE) Q0 M1 D7 Q0 M1 D14 Q0 M1 D21 Q0 M1 D28 Q0 M2 D7 Q0 M2 D14 Q0 M2 D21 Q0 M2 D28 Q0 M3 D7 Q0 M3 D14 Q0 M3 D21 Q0 M3 D28 Q+1 M1 D7 Q+1 M1 D14 Q+1 M1 D21 Q+1 M1 D28 Benchmark Monthly BCDC Bridge STD SPF

53 S&P 500 and its common component at different levels of time aggregation 15 Daily growth rates 15 Month on month growth rates Quarter on quarter growth rates 30 Year on year growth rates

54 Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data-Flow Research questions How important is nowcasting relative to longer horizon forecasting? Can we predict the present? How relevant is informal judgement? How relevant is the conjectural information? How often should we update the predictions? What have we learned Nowcasting is key! Little predictability beyond current quarter! We can predict the present without the need of informal judgement?. It is worth to obsessively monitor conjectural information! Accuracy improves significantly and continuously.

55 Now-Casting China In progress, with S. Miranda-Agrippino and M. Modugno

56 Now-Casting China The Data

57 Now-Casting China: The Common Factor

58 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

59 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

60 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

61 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

62 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

63 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

64 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

65 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

66 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

67 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

68 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

69 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

70 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

71 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

72 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

73 Now-Casting China in Real-Time

74 Now-Casting China: What are the Most Informative Data Releases

75 Now-Casting China In progress, M. Modugno

76 Now-Casting in Brazil An Award-Winning Central Bank

77 Now-Casting Brazil: The Data

78 Now-Casting Brazil: The Data

79 Now-Casting Brazil: The Data

80 Now-Casting China: What are the Most Informative Data Releases

81 Now-Casting Brazil: The Data