EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of Service Units September 2012 update

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1 EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of Service Units September 2012 update Summary: This document replaces doc478 v1.0, which resolves the data inconsistency between Figure 2 and 8. Figure 2 has been updated in this version. This document presents the forecast of total service units in Europe 1 for prepared by the Statistics and Forecast Service of EUROCONTROL (STATFOR) for the attention of the EUROCONTROL Member States and their air navigation service providers. This forecast also aims to support the monitoring of performance plans for the first reporting period, Ukraine has been added for the first time to the list of countries for which a forecast is produced. This update has been produced in the light of the continuing economic crisis in Europe and several bankruptcies in the sector. A particular change since the last forecast is the cut in the forecasts of economic growth for Europe, especially for This has led to a sharp downward revision in the flight forecast which is a key input to the service unit forecast. For 2013, the flight growth of the May forecast (+1.5%) has been revised downwards to no-growth as a result. Not surprisingly then, service unit growth is also revised downwards, although to a lesser extent than the flights. In EUROCONTROL current member states (CRCO11), the forecast of total service units (TSU) for 2012 remains stable at million service units compared to the previous version of May The forecast for 2013 TSU is revised sharply downwards to grow by 1.4% and reach around million. The current economic situation remains very delicate, with clear risks of further downward revisions to growth expectations. These would have direct knock-on effects to service units. If there are upside risks, they may lie in the load factors which, being at record high levels, are unlikely to absorb as much growth as in the past, so that when passenger growth finally returns it could result more quickly in higher frequencies and heavier aircraft; hence faster service unit growth. Based on these lower numbers for 2013 and a revised medium-term flight forecast, the TSU are forecasted downwards to be about 15.2% higher in 2017 than in 2011, reaching in total around million, representing a baseline scenario average growth of 2.4%/year, implying an annual growth of 3.6% as of 2014 onwards. CRCO11 Forecast Feb12 Forecast May12 Forecast Sep 2012 TSU Growth TSU TSU Growth (million) (million) Growth (million) Actual Forecast 2012 vs % % % Forecast 2013 vs % % % Forecast 2017 vs % % % The forecast of service units will next be updated in February Comments are welcome at statfor.info@eurocontrol.int. 1 Here Europe refers both to States within EUROCONTROL 2011 charging area (CRCO11) and to States covered by the performance scheme (Regulation (EC) No 691/2010 of 29 July 2010) identified as PScheme. EUROCONTROL/STATFOR/DNM/STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 Page 1

2 1. INTRODUCTION This report contains an update of the forecast of service units for This update takes into account the latest data on total service units and the latest flight forecast to renew the short-term forecast ( ), as well as providing a full update of the medium-term forecast (up to 2017). The forecast is mainly directed towards the EUROCONTROL States participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System, down to individual charging area level. The period to 2014 is also of interest for the countries participating in the EU-wide performance target setting (Regulation (EC) N 691/2010 of 29 July 2010). The geographical scope of the EU-wide performance target scheme covers the 27 EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland 2, referred to here in total as PScheme. A forecast has also been produced for Ukraine at its request. Its TSU is not included in the aggregates named CRCO11 and PScheme but is in the Total, so the total is different from that in previous publications. Section 2 describes the forecasting methodology, section 3 summarises the past evolution of total service units and section 4 lists the inputs and assumptions. Section 5 and 6 respectively discuss the main shortterm and medium-term forecast results, while section 7 highlights some of the key risks to the forecast. The first Annex details the methodology, whereas in the last two Annexes, one for the short-term forecast, one for the medium-term forecast, are attached tables that present the forecasts for individual States for which a forecast has been calculated. 2. FORECASTING METHODOLOGY The forecast process uses both monthly data of total service units recorded in the route charges system from January 1990 or first month of operation in the route charges system (or first month of data provided by the state for Estonia and Ukraine) up to and including August 2012 as well as flight information such as the average maximum take-off weight (MTOW) and distance flown up to and including August The forecast is based on a combination of two parallel approaches: The short-term forecast ( ), as it has been for many years, is mainly based on timeseries modelling of trends, seasonal and cyclical patterns in actual monthly service units. It also relies strongly on the flight forecast 3 and thus picks up future information that is included in the flight forecast (economic growth forecasts, schedule data, future events etc). The medium-term forecast ( ) uses the flight forecast 3 as well as trends in the evolution of average distances and MTOW of the flights across each State. The detailed forecasting methodology can be found in Annex A. 3. RECENT EVOLUTION OF TOTAL SERVICE UNITS Figure 1 presents the monthly evolution of the total service units (TSUs) recorded in the member states of EUROCONTROL in 2011(CRCO11) that is used as our reference region. In 2011, million service units (TSU) were produced. This represented a growth of 4.9% compared to 2010 and a new high record of TSU collected during a single year over the previous record of Overall the growth of TSU was greater than that of the flights: for the ESRA08 region flights grew only by 3.1%. However, TSU remain linked to the evolution of the flights: most of the growth in 2011 was associated with the strong traffic of the summer, whereas lower growth rates were observed since the start of the weaker winter schedule. In the first eight months of 2012, the TSU (for CRCO11) decreased by 1% from 83.1 million TSU in 2011 to 82.3 million in This is in line with the decline in flights (1.9% fewer flights than in 2011 in ESRA08), although continuing the trend of TSU growing more quickly than flights. In the first months of 2012, TSUs followed 2008 volumes, then they caught up with 2011 in the Summer. 2 ICAO Oceanic airspace regions Bodø (Norway), NOTA and SOTA (Ireland) and Canaries FIR are also included. Santa Maria FIR being operationally very different from the other included areas is not covered. 3 EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements , STATFOR Doc 475, September 2012 STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 2

3 Figure 1. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO11 area in FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS This service unit forecast is based on the flight forecast. That flight forecast has in turn been prepared based on economic forecasts. Overall, for the EU27 4 the economic outlook has deteriorated since the February forecast, threatening the second dip of a double-dip recession. We continue to forecast a decline in flights in In 2013 we now expect to see stagnation of flight growth 5 (0% vs. previous forecast of +1.6% 6 ). The current economic situation remains very delicate, with clear risks of further downward revisions to growth expectations: there is open political discussion of a Greek exit from the euro-zone; of the potential for contagion from such an exit; and of the fragile state of several other European economies, oil prices remain high and changeable. A major traffic downturn (local or more widespread) could result if any of these risks became reality. This would have direct knock-on effects to service units. At the same time, further carriers have joined Spanair and Malev, which failed as the February forecast was in preparation, such as UK s BMI Baby, Denmark s Cimber Sterling, Sweden s Skyways Express and Air Poland. If there are upside risks, they may lie in the load factors which, being at record high levels, are unlikely to absorb as much growth as in the past, so that when passenger growth finally returns it could result more quickly in higher frequencies and heavier aircraft; hence faster service unit growth. There are a number of credible scenarios for recovery from the past situation over Libya and from/to Egypt. The forecast has been able to include only one such scenario. For Libyan overflights, we expect a recovery by the beginning of the winter schedule of 2012, whereas for traffic to Egypt and Libya, we have included a gradual recovery of flights by the end of FORECAST RESULTS: Figure 6 presents the 2012 and 2013 total service units forecast per State prepared by EUROCONTROL/STATFOR on behalf of CRCO at the end of September The forecast for 2012 in current EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO11) remains at the level of the May 12 forecast, being million TSU, a drop of 0.4% compared to the million TSU observed in The May 2012 forecasts of million TSU had already been revised downwards compared to the million units (by 0.7%), published in February Although flight growth forecast for 2012 has been revised upwards from -1.7% to -1.5%, TSU growth levels are foreseen to remain stable on CRCO11 level. The results vary significantly from state to state. France, Spain and Ireland are countries that are the most influenced upwards by the recent changes, with increasing TSU expected in 2012 following slightly stronger flights than expected. On the other hand, 44 An aggregate figure. For individual States, see Figure 31 of the February 7-year flight forecast report. 5 EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements , STATFOR Doc 475, September EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of Service Units September 2012 update Doc 464 May 2012 STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 3

4 the TSU forecasts of some countries such as UK, Italy and in a lesser extent Germany have been revised further down. Malta was severely affected by the no-fly zone over Libya in the past. Lower TSU levels were a result of a reduction of the number overflights but these were moderated by an increase in average distance. This situation seems to return to normal (increasing overflights) with an upward revision of TSU in 2012 as a result. However the distances are not back yet to 2011 levels and even if we opted for one scenario assuming a fast full return to 2011 values for distances in the forecast, other scenarios are possible. TSU forecasts for Malta should be used with caution as the restoration could easily be different from this, implying both downside risks and upside risks. The total service units in the EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO11) are forecasted to grow by 1.4% in 2013 compared to 2012 and reach million. This is a revision downwards by 1% compared to the million units, published in May This change is consistent with the flight forecast (downward revision from +1.5% to 0%) and largely explained by lower flight forecast in the major Western European countries such as Germany, UK, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Turkey. Estimates of chargeable service units per State in 2012 and 2013, based on EUROCONTROL TSU forecasts and numbers of exempted service units in 2011, are presented in Figure 7. The chargeable service units in CRCO11 in 2012 and 2013 are estimated to amount to million and million respectively (based on CRCO percentages). 6. FORECAST RESULTS 2014 TO 2017 The forecast for has been fully updated. Nevertheless, growth rates in remain very similar to the previous forecast. For the member states of EUROCONTROL in 2011 (CRCO11), TSU are forecasted to be about 15% higher in 2017 than in 2011, reaching in total around million compared to millions in Figure 3 compares the evolution of the forecast between the May forecast and this new forecast release for the CRCO11 grouping. The CRCO11 TSU in 2017 are forecasted to remain at the same level despite the lower 2013 forecast. As of 2014 onwards, growth rates remain as in the previous forecast. The average annual growth figures per State can be found in Figure 4. The detailed forecasts for each State are in Annex C. Figure 2: Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe Total service units (thousands) CRCO11* Total service units (thousands) PScheme ** / 2011 Total Growth H 123, , , , , ,793 23% B 105, , , , , , , , , , , ,907 15% L 122, , , , , ,118 8% H 104, , , , , ,190 21% B 93,862 99, ,941 98, , , , , , , , ,017 13% L 104, , , , , ,784 6% / 2011 AAGR Annual growth H -0.0% 3.1% 4.6% 4.4% 4.5% 4.8% 3.5% CRCO11 B 4.6% 6.4% 2.9% -5.2% 3.5% 5.0% -0.4% 1.4% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 2.4% L -0.8% -0.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.5% 2.3% 1.3% Annual growth H -0.3% 2.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 3.2% PScheme B 4.4% 6.2% 1.7% -6.6% 2.6% 4.5% -0.7% 1.1% 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.0% 2.1% L -1.1% -0.5% 1.6% 2.1% 2.3% 1.9% 1.0% * CRCO11 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2012 of all TSUs either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year. ** PScheme stands for the sum over all the 29 states that are currently involved in the EU-wide performance target setting (27 EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland) 7 EUROCONTROL Short- and Medium- Term Forecast of Service Units: May 2011, STATFOR Doc464 v1.0 STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 4

5 Figure 3: Comparison of the forecast between the September 2012 update and May 2012 for CRCO11 Area (Source: EUROCONTROL) Figure 4: Average annual growth of service units between 2012 and 2017 (Source: EUROCONTROL) STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 5

6 7. RISKS TO THE FORECAST Users of the forecast are strongly advised to use the forecast range (low growth to high growth) as an indicator of risk. This range captures some of the uncertainty in factors such as economic growth, load factors and the continuing high oil prices. However, this forecast is prepared in the conditions of unstable economic situation with serious risk of further aggravation and downside effects on traffic development. The forecast range can not capture all of the risks and the actual range of the forecast is potentially wider. In particular, other sources of uncertainty in the forecast include: The economic forecasts used were updated in August 2012, when reforms have been undertaken to ensure the stability of the Euro-zone banking system. These developments are still submitted to approval at the time of writing. The economic adjustment, taking place across Euro area member states, should be a contributor to future growth; however, the economic recovery might take longer than expected (Spain, Greece and Italy economic growth are forecasted to still be negative in 2013) and further set-backs en route are clearly possible. Currently, the neither better nor worse situation in the zone leaves the risk of further deterioration open Along with the actual uncertainty in economic growth, severe cuts in spending and tax hikes have been put in place by European States to balance their budgets (eg Spain, France). Such state control measures might lead to industrial unrest. The same applies for private sector where air industry operators might have to handle protest from workforce against saving plans (day-to-day flight disruption). These represent a downside risk for future traffic development as presented in this report. Load factors remain at or near record highs. When traffic begins to grow again, this means that load factors will be able to absorb less of the passenger growth than they have in past years. The forecast includes assumptions about the future development of load factors, but from the present position, the eventual recovery could come more rapidly than anticipated. Tourism trends are quite variable. The medium-term forecast aims to be accurate over the sixyear period, rather than identifying which will be the new holiday destination of preference in a given year. Although the usual traffic flows in North Africa seem to have well restarted in the region, the risk for potential disruption still has great resonance. Such changes in traffic patterns for substitute destinations are not included in the forecast. Oil prices remain changeable with oil being increasingly an item of speculation and investment. With fuel accounting for 25-35% or even more of costs of the airlines, this can have an effect on fares and cost of travel for customer. Participation of aviation in the Emission Trading Scheme, currently under intense debate, is nevertheless integrated into the forecast. However, such regulatory measures (eg new tax regimes or further environmental limits) contribute to the uncertainty of air transport growth and can change rapidly the local outlook for flight growth. Since the beginning of the year, several airlines have filed for bankruptcy and more such situations may happen in the current economic context. We have been able to model only one scenario to adjust for traffic disruptions in North Africa (Egypt and Libya). The restoration could easily be different from this, implying both downside and upside risks. Forecasts for Armenia, Serbia & Montenegro (renamed Belgrade in the tables), Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania must be treated with extra care as these are based on a limited set of historical data. It is the same for Latvia who has joined the CRCO in 2011 and for which only yearly TSU data are available before. These regions are not included in the aggregated zones CRCO88, ESRA02 but are included in the TOTAL. STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 6

7 A. Detailed forecasting methodology Figure 5. Service units forecast method Historic TSU data Forecast SU data Short Term Flight Forecasts (STF) Unaligned STF Aligned STF Short Term SU Forecasts (ST-SUF) Unaligned ST-SUF Aligned ST-SUF STF & MTF Alignment Historic average aircraft weight Historic average distance flown ST-SUF & MT-SUF Alignment Forecast weight factors Forecast distance factors Medium Term Flight Forecasts (MTF) Unaligned MTF Aligned MTF Medium Term SU Forecasts (MT-SUF) Unaligned MT-SUF Aligned MT-SUF The overall forecast method and tool have been finalised in the first half of The forecasting methodology is in two parts, the short-term forecast and medium-term forecast being produced by two independent means. However; these two forecasts are later realigned for the first 2-year look ahead period, the scope of the short-term forecast, to account for the fact that the short-term forecast, which is based on time-series modelling of trends and seasonal and cyclical patterns in actual monthly service units, is usually better in capturing latest developments and giving the short-term outlook. The short-term forecast is based on time series analysis, using actual monthly data of total service units recorded in the route charges system from January 1990 (or first month of operation in the route charges system). The latest EUROCONTROL flight forecast and medium-term forecast of service units prepared are used as supporting information in developing this forecast of service units. The actual data for April and May 2010 have been adjusted for the drop in service units due to flight cancellations resulting from the eruption of the Icelandic volcano, as well as the actual data for December 2010 for the drop caused by the major snow falls in Europe. Some local corrections were also introduced to compensate for some loss of service units that could be attributed to local strikes. In doing so, we avoid some exceptional events to be captured as being part of the normal evolution pattern of the service units. The method for the medium-term forecast of the service units adopts the structure for calculating the en route service units in reality: it combines forecasts of distance factors and weight factors with the number of flights as forecast by the latest EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of flight movements, thus making these two forecasts compatible. The future distance and weight factors are derived from observed historical trends in average flown distance and average MTOW of aircraft on arrivals, departures, internals and overflights in each charging area. For managing risk related to future traffic uncertainty, in addition to a base central figure the medium-term forecast produces also high and low values. Overall, the future total service units can be expected to be between these about half of the time. The EUROCONTROL forecast of service units is impartial in that it uses the same method for all the States. However, users should note that for the medium-term forecasts, the forecast modelling as well as the results are based on a relatively short history of data (starting mostly in January 2003) which did not allow full assessment of the forecast performance for the complete 5-year horizon and thus its results should be treated with care. STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 7

8 B. State-by-state short-term forecast of service units Figure 6. Forecast of total service units in September 2012 Charging Area 2011 Actual TSU 2012 STATFOR Forecast TSU 2012/2011 Forecast Growth 2013 STATFOR Forecast TSU 2013/2012 Forecast Growth 2012 States Forecast TSU (E) current 2012 STATFOR/ States EB Belgium/Luxembourg 2,211,673 2,243, % 2,293, % 2,283, % ED Germany (A) 12,739,932 12,563, % 12,583, % 13,308, % LF France 17,691,225 17,636, % 17,731, % 17,987, % EG UK 9,860,212 9,586, % 9,544, % 10,324, % EH Netherlands 2,595,143 2,598, % 2,641, % 2,681, % EI Ireland 3,771,478 3,871, % 3,980, % 3,826, % LS Switzerland 1,431,092 1,412, % 1,450, % 1,492, % LP Lisbon FIR 2,821,265 2,824, % 2,828, % 2,950, % LO Austria 2,519,384 2,485, % 2,517, % 2,720, % LE Spain 9,099,189 8,591, % 8,454, % 9,400, % GC Canary Islands 1,665,737 1,608, % 1,603, % 1,705, % AZ Santa Maria FIR 3,983,496 3,967, % 4,027, % 4,083, % LG Greece 4,546,412 4,411, % 4,475, % 4,698, % LT Turkey 9,617,775 9,926, % 10,267, % 10,167, % LM Malta 505, , % 743, % 544, % LI Italy (F) 8,369,860 8,246, % 8,382, % 8,525, % LC Cyprus 1,347,370 1,325, % 1,345, % 1,410, % LH Hungary 2,066,988 2,042, % 2,058, % 2,122, % EN Norway 1,712,781 1,825, % 1,880, % 1,753, % EK Denmark 1,470,012 1,434, % 1,471, % 1,553, % LJ Slovenia 424, , % 456, % 426, % LR Romania 3,532,683 3,620, % 3,814, % 3,612, % LK Czech Republic 2,304,684 2,316, % 2,333, % 2,351, % ES Sweden 3,184,522 3,119, % 3,094, % 3,209, % LZ Slovakia (F) 899, , % 976, % 940, % LD Croatia 1,634,250 1,699, % 1,762, % 1,796, % LB Bulgaria 2,018,783 2,016, % 2,074, % 1,966, % LW FYROM 194, , % 183, % 213, % LU Moldova 194, , % 226, % 218, % EF Finland 832, , % 813, % 878, % LA Albania 447, , % 469, % 485, % LQ Bosnia-Herzegovina 716, , % 716, % 791, % UD Armenia 169, , % 159, % 175, % LY Belgrade (B) 1,830,604 1,744, % 1,819, % 1,897, % EP Poland 3,676,460 3,897, % 4,060, % 3,898, % EY Lithuania 419, , % 450, % 431, % EE Estonia 704, , % 743, % 760, % EV Latvia (C) 702, , % 736, % 701, % UK Ukraine (D) 4,464,959 4,618, % 4,920, %.. CRCO88 CRCO88 70,389,826 69,390, % 69,657, % 72,763, % ESRA02 ESRA02 115,247, ,609, % 116,016, % 119,150, % CRCO11 CRCO11 123,210, ,707, % 124,427, % 127,532, % PScheme PScheme 105,126, ,391, % 105,539, % 108,464, % TOTAL Total 128,380, ,049, % 130,092, % 128,293, % (A) Includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic. Estimated number in Germany is per year. (B) The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Belgrade (Annex 1 of the Conditions of Application of the Route Charges System, Text approved by the enlarged Commission and entered into force on ). (C) Latvia has only joined EUROCONTROL member states in Before that date, only yearly data was available for the TSUs (D) Ukraine is not part of the CRCO but has asked STATFOR to produce an individual forecast for them as they will not have this capacity in In the TOTAL column the 2012 states forecast and the percentage difference between, the 2012 States and STATFOR forecast does not account for Ukraine (E) Forecast published in the Enlarged Committee meeting of November 2011 except for Italy and Slovakia (1 Sept 2012). (F) NEW Updated state forecast for Italy and Slovakia as of 1 September 2012 STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 8

9 Figure 7. Forecast of chargeable service units in September 2012 Charging Area 2011 Actual TSU STATFOR STATFOR Forecast TSU Forecast TSU 2011 Actual Exempted SU in % 2011 Actual Chargeable SU in % 2012 Chargeable SU Estimate 2013 Chargeable SU Estimate EB Belgium/Luxembourg 2,211,673 2,243,527 2,293, % 98.8% 2,216,200 2,265,300 ED Germany (A) 12,739,932 12,563,594 12,583, % 98.9% 12,426,900 12,446,300 LF France 17,691,225 17,636,687 17,731, % 98.5% 17,377,100 17,470,200 EG UK 9,860,212 9,586,464 9,544, % 98.5% 9,439,300 9,397,700 EH Netherlands 2,595,143 2,598,690 2,641, % 98.9% 2,569,200 2,611,700 EI Ireland 3,771,478 3,871,392 3,980, % 98.4% 3,808,700 3,916,000 LS Switzerland 1,431,092 1,412,647 1,450, % 99.7% 1,408,100 1,446,100 LP Lisbon FIR 2,821,265 2,824,695 2,828, % 98.5% 2,782,500 2,786,600 LO Austria 2,519,384 2,485,868 2,517, % 99.7% 2,479,300 2,510,900 LE Spain 9,099,189 8,591,568 8,454, % 97.7% 8,391,900 8,258,000 GC Canary Islands 1,665,737 1,608,128 1,603, % 99.4% 1,598,300 1,593,500 AZ Santa Maria FIR 3,983,496 3,967,549 4,027, % 96.9% 3,845,600 3,904,200 LG Greece 4,546,412 4,411,694 4,475, % 97.8% 4,314,500 4,376,500 LT Turkey 9,617,775 9,926,464 10,267, % 97.5% 9,679,900 10,012,700 LM Malta (B) 505, , , % 88.1% 585, ,100 LI Italy (B) 8,369,860 8,246,978 8,382, % 95.9% 7,908,900 8,038,500 LC Cyprus 1,347,370 1,325,255 1,345, % 99.0% 1,312,300 1,332,700 LH Hungary 2,066,988 2,042,125 2,058, % 97.9% 1,999,800 2,015,900 EN Norway 1,712,781 1,825,550 1,880, % 99.1% 1,809,800 1,864,300 EK Denmark 1,470,012 1,434,866 1,471, % 99.5% 1,427,500 1,463,500 LJ Slovenia 424, , , % 99.6% 435, ,600 LR Romania 3,532,683 3,620,605 3,814, % 97.2% 3,520,000 3,708,600 LK Czech Republic 2,304,684 2,316,633 2,333, % 97.1% 2,249,000 2,265,000 ES Sweden 3,184,522 3,119,001 3,094, % 99.7% 3,109,100 3,085,100 LZ Slovakia 899, , , % 99.1% 933, ,700 LD Croatia 1,634,250 1,699,838 1,762, % 99.7% 1,695,100 1,757,100 LB Bulgaria 2,018,783 2,016,572 2,074, % 98.9% 1,994,300 2,051,700 LW FYROM 194, , , % 99.8% 182, ,000 LU Moldova 194, , , % 100.0% 207, ,600 EF Finland 832, , , % 99.2% 793, ,500 LA Albania 447, , , % 99.5% 451, ,700 LQ Bosnia-Herzegovina 716, , , % 99.9% 698, ,000 UD Armenia 169, , , % 99.9% 157, ,200 LY Belgrade 1,830,604 1,744,627 1,819, % 99.9% 1,743,200 1,817,700 EP Poland 3,676,460 3,897,887 4,060, % 99.5% 3,876,800 4,038,100 EY Lithuania 419, , , % 99.6% 428, ,700 EE Estonia 704, , , % 100.0% 723, ,800 EV Latvia 702, , , % 99.7% 713, ,500 UK Ukraine 4,464,959 4,618,436 4,920, % 99.8% 4,610,200 4,911,300 CRCO88 CRCO88 70,389,826 69,390,809 69,657, % 98.5% 68,340,600 68,602,800 ESRA02 ESRA02 115,247, ,609, ,016, % 98.2% 112,515, ,897,500 CRCO11 CRCO11 123,210, ,707, ,427, % 98.3% 120,583, ,273,900 PScheme PScheme 105,126, ,391, ,539, % 98.3% 102,641, ,770,600 TOTAL Total 128,380, ,049, ,092, % 98.3% 125,914, ,922,300 (A) Includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic. Estimated number in Germany is per year. (B) The Chargeable SU in % has been lower in 2011 due to an increase in the military traffic in these 2 areas. Note this % is likely to be greater. In 2010 it was for Malta equal to 96.7% and for Italy equal to 97.5%. These percentages might be preferred to estimate the chargeable service units in 2012 and STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 9

10 C. Medium-term forecast results per State This annex shows the EUROCONTROL medium-term forecast of service units per individual charging area. Forecasts for Armenia, Lithuania, Poland and Belgrade and Ukraine must be treated with extra care as they are based on a limited set of historical data. Figure 8: Total service units per State and increase in total service units between 2011 and / Total service units (thousands) 2011 Total Growth Albania H % B % L % Armenia H % B % L % Austria H ,498 2,587 2,716 2,836 2,964 3,098 23% B 2,342 2,509 2,566 2,424 2,449 2,519 2,486 2,518 2,604 2,692 2,787 2,880 14% L ,474 2,450 2,502 2,560 2,623 2,679 6% Belgium/Luxembourg H ,250 2,330 2,440 2,537 2,637 2,724 23% B 2,080 2,184 2,220 2,079 2,115 2,212 2,244 2,293 2,370 2,446 2,527 2,590 17% L ,237 2,257 2,305 2,358 2,414 2,457 11% Belgrade H ,758 1,896 1,990 2,085 2,188 2,323 27% B ,748 1,783 1,819 1,831 1,745 1,819 1,883 1,952 2,029 2,124 16% L ,731 1,743 1,784 1,832 1,885 1,944 6% Bosnia-Herzegovina H % B % L % Bulgaria H ,026 2,118 2,216 2,303 2,399 2,599 29% B 1,453 1,624 1,747 1,798 1,840 2,019 2,017 2,075 2,140 2,202 2,269 2,408 19% L ,007 2,030 2,075 2,117 2,161 2,244 11% Canary Islands H ,615 1,643 1,689 1,766 1,856 1,933 16% B 1,589 1,691 1,713 1,492 1,540 1,666 1,608 1,603 1,611 1,655 1,711 1,753 5% L ,602 1,565 1,549 1,570 1,601 1,621-3% Croatia H ,707 1,807 1,900 1,993 2,095 2,214 36% B 1,028 1,204 1,271 1,298 1,451 1,634 1,700 1,762 1,825 1,894 1,970 2,055 26% L ,692 1,718 1,759 1,807 1,860 1,914 17% Cyprus H ,330 1,368 1,442 1,518 1,598 1,715 27% B 1,057 1,178 1,311 1,273 1,352 1,347 1,325 1,346 1,393 1,447 1,504 1,584 18% L ,321 1,323 1,355 1,394 1,435 1,487 10% Czech Republic H ,326 2,383 2,510 2,626 2,749 2,876 25% B 1,896 1,940 2,019 2,023 2,190 2,305 2,317 2,333 2,413 2,495 2,581 2,656 15% L ,308 2,283 2,330 2,384 2,440 2,482 8% Denmark H ,440 1,501 1,565 1,618 1,672 1,717 17% B 1,395 1,480 1,474 1,359 1,411 1,470 1,435 1,471 1,513 1,554 1,595 1,626 11% L ,430 1,441 1,465 1,490 1,516 1,535 4% Estonia H % B % L % STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 10

11 FYROM Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Total service units (thousands) Lisbon FIR Lithuania Malta Moldova Netherlands Norway Poland Romania / 2011 Total Growth H % B % L % H % B % L % H ,671 17,934 18,558 19,198 19,889 20,462 16% B 16,756 17,995 18,034 16,780 16,637 17,691 17,637 17,731 18,093 18,571 19,103 19,492 10% L ,602 17,530 17,663 17,954 18,295 18,521 5% H ,589 12,749 13,321 13,837 14,369 14,869 17% B 11,712 12,419 12,749 11,913 12,294 12,740 12,564 12,583 12,967 13,358 13,766 14,103 11% L ,538 12,420 12,646 12,902 13,172 13,374 5% H ,434 4,600 4,828 5,045 5,280 5,556 22% B 3,754 4,049 4,258 4,139 4,454 4,546 4,412 4,475 4,632 4,796 4,977 5,181 14% L ,390 4,350 4,452 4,568 4,697 4,835 6% H ,057 2,144 2,279 2,412 2,554 2,723 32% B 2,063 2,104 2,092 2,038 2,091 2,067 2,042 2,058 2,149 2,246 2,348 2,464 19% L ,027 1,974 2,036 2,105 2,175 2,249 9% H ,885 4,043 4,275 4,515 4,781 5,045 34% B 3,597 3,822 3,823 3,561 3,615 3,771 3,871 3,980 4,136 4,297 4,470 4,632 23% L ,858 3,922 4,025 4,134 4,252 4,358 16% H ,311 8,713 9,102 9,480 9,888 10,288 23% B 8,049 8,620 8,660 8,145 8,621 8,370 8,247 8,382 8,633 8,914 9,222 9,503 14% L ,181 8,031 8,165 8,343 8,544 8,709 4% H % B % L % H ,833 2,878 2,974 3,096 3,235 3,366 19% B 2,516 2,631 2,677 2,501 2,624 2,821 2,825 2,829 2,852 2,926 3,030 3,109 10% L ,816 2,782 2,765 2,801 2,866 2,911 3% H % B % L % H % B % L % H % B % L % H ,607 2,692 2,807 2,902 3,006 3,093 19% B 2,518 2,639 2,621 2,426 2,476 2,595 2,599 2,642 2,715 2,784 2,859 2,913 12% L ,590 2,591 2,635 2,677 2,725 2,757 6% H ,834 1,926 2,000 2,077 2,161 2,247 31% B 1,342 1,420 1,537 1,495 1,583 1,713 1,826 1,881 1,931 1,985 2,045 2,101 23% L ,817 1,835 1,865 1,899 1,935 1,966 15% H ,908 4,116 4,349 4,570 4,801 5,030 37% B.. 3,230 3,092 3,313 3,676 3,898 4,060 4,213 4,368 4,529 4,676 27% L ,888 4,008 4,102 4,205 4,311 4,399 20% H ,638 3,916 4,162 4,403 4,663 5,039 43% B 3,300 3,236 3,240 3,133 3,414 3,533 3,621 3,815 3,984 4,164 4,353 4,613 31% L ,603 3,713 3,837 3,971 4,109 4,279 21% STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 11

12 Total service units (thousands) Santa Maria FIR Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK Ukraine ESRA02 CRCO88 CRCO11 PScheme Total / 2011 Total Growth H ,988 4,123 4,345 4,575 4,826 5,056 27% B 3,188 3,304 3,484 3,479 3,696 3,983 3,968 4,028 4,173 4,336 4,517 4,675 17% L ,947 3,935 4,019 4,119 4,236 4,333 9% H ,067 1,138 1,215 1,304 45% B ,024 1,077 1,134 1,196 33% L ,028 1,068 1,108 23% H % B % L % H ,616 8,611 8,886 9,229 9,615 9,952 9% B 8,518 9,244 9,129 8,358 8,642 9,099 8,592 8,455 8,559 8,789 9,071 9,294 2% L ,567 8,304 8,282 8,404 8,579 8,702-4% H ,129 3,154 3,272 3,383 3,503 3,622 14% B 2,930 3,094 3,271 2,906 2,950 3,185 3,119 3,095 3,168 3,244 3,328 3,405 7% L ,109 3,037 3,072 3,113 3,161 3,202 1% H ,417 1,474 1,526 1,580 1,638 1,689 18% B 1,368 1,452 1,472 1,396 1,409 1,431 1,413 1,451 1,483 1,524 1,570 1,606 12% L ,408 1,428 1,441 1,468 1,497 1,519 6% H ,962 10,460 11,097 11,732 12,430 13,750 43% B 6,629 7,168 7,629 8,086 8,923 9,618 9,926 10,268 10,785 11,304 11,871 12,868 34% L ,892 10,077 10,499 10,925 11,378 12,064 25% H ,616 9,704 10,094 10,462 10,863 11,232 14% B 10,426 10,896 11,044 9,914 9,480 9,860 9,586 9,544 9,798 10,058 10,348 10,595 7% L ,557 9,388 9,540 9,707 9,898 10,054 2% H ,637 5,031 5,486 5,950 6,453 7,054 58% B 3,165 3,468 3,903 3,727 4,188 4,465 4,618 4,920 5,268 5,642 6,039 6,493 45% L ,600 4,809 5,086 5,389 5,705 6,048 35% H , , , , , ,161 22% B 103, , , , , , , , , , , ,098 15% L , , , , , ,983 8% H ,585 70,767 73,632 76,533 79,679 82,521 17% B 66,609 70,785 71,532 66,323 66,977 70,390 69,391 69,657 71,362 73,437 75,757 77,643 10% L ,197 68,572 69,371 70,654 72,157 73,286 4% H , , , , , ,793 23% B 105, , , , , , , , , , , ,907 15% L , , , , , ,118 8% H , , , , , ,190 21% B 93,862 99, ,941 98, , , , , , , , ,017 13% L , , , , , ,784 6% H , , , , , ,812 24% B 108, , , , , , , , , , , ,294 16% L , , , , , ,007 9% (a) Total in 2006 do not include Armenia, Belgrade, Poland and Lithuania for which data for these years are not available. (b) Total in 2007 does not include Armenia, Poland and Lithuania for which data for this year are not available. (c) Total in 2008 does not include Armenia for which data for this year are not available. (d)total from 2009 includes TSUs of all countries (e) CRCO11 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2012 of all TSUs either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year. (f) PScheme stands for the sum over all the 29 states that are currently involved in the EU-wide performance target setting (27 EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland) STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 12

13 Figure 9: Annual growth in total service units per State and average annual growth (AAGR) between 2011 and 2017 AAGR Annual growth 2017/ Albania H % 5.2% 4.6% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 4.3% B 0.6% 18.6% 3.8% 9.1% 13.9% 10.8% 1.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7% 4.0% 3.2% L % 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 2.1% Armenia H % 4.4% 5.9% 5.8% 6.0% 7.0% 3.8% B % 16.1% -6.8% 0.8% 3.6% 4.4% 4.9% 5.7% 2.0% L % -2.6% 1.7% 3.2% 3.9% 4.6% 0.4% Austria H % 3.6% 5.0% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 3.5% B 4.8% 7.1% 2.3% -5.5% 1.0% 2.9% -1.3% 1.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 2.3% L % -1.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.1% 1.0% Belgium/ H % 3.5% 4.8% 4.0% 3.9% 3.3% 3.5% Luxembourg B 7.9% 5.0% 1.7% -6.4% 1.7% 4.6% 1.4% 2.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 2.5% 2.7% L % 0.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 1.8% 1.8% Belgrade H % 7.9% 5.0% 4.8% 5.0% 6.1% 4.0% B % 2.0% 2.0% 0.6% -4.7% 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 4.7% 2.5% L % 0.7% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 1.0% Bosnia- H % 4.9% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.9% 4.1% Herzegovina B 16.3% 25.6% 9.1% 10.3% 10.1% 12.5% -2.5% 2.5% 3.8% 4.0% 4.1% 4.5% 2.7% L % 0.2% 2.6% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 1.4% Bulgaria H % 4.6% 4.6% 3.9% 4.1% 8.4% 4.3% B 1.2% 11.8% 7.5% 3.0% 2.3% 9.7% -0.1% 2.9% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 6.1% 3.0% L % 1.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 3.8% 1.8% Canary Islands H % 1.7% 2.8% 4.6% 5.1% 4.1% 2.5% B 2.5% 6.4% 1.3% -12.9% 3.2% 8.2% -3.5% -0.3% 0.5% 2.7% 3.4% 2.4% 0.9% L % -2.3% -1.1% 1.4% 2.0% 1.2% -0.4% Croatia H % 5.8% 5.1% 4.9% 5.1% 5.7% 5.2% B -3.5% 17.1% 5.6% 2.2% 11.8% 12.6% 4.0% 3.7% 3.6% 3.8% 4.0% 4.3% 3.9% L % 1.5% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% Cyprus H % 2.9% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 7.3% 4.1% B 4.9% 11.4% 11.3% -2.9% 6.2% -0.3% -1.6% 1.6% 3.5% 3.9% 3.9% 5.3% 2.7% L % 0.1% 2.4% 2.9% 2.9% 3.7% 1.7% Czech Republic H % 2.5% 5.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 3.8% B 1.5% 2.3% 4.1% 0.2% 8.3% 5.2% 0.5% 0.7% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 2.9% 2.4% L % -1.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 1.7% 1.2% Denmark H % 4.3% 4.2% 3.4% 3.3% 2.7% 2.6% B 5.2% 6.1% -0.4% -7.8% 3.8% 4.2% -2.4% 2.5% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 1.9% 1.7% L % 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.2% 0.7% Estonia H % 4.5% 7.4% 6.0% 5.9% 5.3% 5.4% B 11.8% 10.5% 7.2% -9.4% -0.8% 12.3% 2.8% 2.8% 5.6% 4.8% 4.6% 3.9% 4.1% L % 1.2% 4.4% 3.7% 3.5% 2.9% 3.0% FYROM H % 1.8% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% 5.3% 2.6% B 10.2% 4.8% 0.2% -1.0% 1.7% 5.9% -5.9% 0.3% 3.1% 3.9% 4.0% 4.2% 1.5% L % -1.2% 1.9% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9% 0.5% Finland H % 3.6% 4.3% 3.6% 3.9% 3.3% 2.5% B 1.4% 1.0% 6.1% -8.1% 1.7% 12.6% -3.9% 1.6% 3.1% 2.6% 3.0% 2.2% 1.4% L % -0.3% 2.2% 1.8% 2.1% 1.4% 0.4% STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 13

14 Annual growth France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lisbon FIR Lithuania Malta Moldova Netherlands Norway Poland Romania Santa Maria FIR AAGR 2017/ 2011 H % 1.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 2.9% 2.5% B 3.0% 7.4% 0.2% -7.0% -0.9% 6.3% -0.3% 0.5% 2.0% 2.6% 2.9% 2.0% 1.6% L % -0.4% 0.8% 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.8% H % 1.3% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 2.6% B 5.4% 6.0% 2.7% -6.6% 3.2% 3.6% -1.4% 0.2% 3.1% 3.0% 3.1% 2.4% 1.7% L % -0.9% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% H % 3.8% 5.0% 4.5% 4.7% 5.2% 3.4% B 1.4% 7.9% 5.2% -2.8% 7.6% 2.1% -3.0% 1.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 4.1% 2.2% L % -0.9% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 1.0% H % 4.2% 6.3% 5.8% 5.9% 6.6% 4.7% B 3.0% 2.0% -0.6% -2.6% 2.6% -1.2% -1.2% 0.8% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 5.0% 3.0% L % -2.6% 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 1.4% H % 4.1% 5.7% 5.6% 5.9% 5.5% 5.0% B 19.9% 6.3% 0.0% -6.9% 1.5% 4.3% 2.6% 2.8% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% L % 1.7% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 2.5% 2.4% H % 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% 4.3% 4.0% 3.5% B 2.8% 7.1% 0.5% -6.0% 5.9% -2.9% -1.5% 1.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.0% 2.1% L % -1.8% 1.7% 2.2% 2.4% 1.9% 0.7% H % 5.0% 8.1% 7.0% 6.8% 6.4% 5.9% B 11.0% 14.8% 4.7% -9.1% 6.4% 10.8% 1.8% 3.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.1% 4.5% 4.2% L % 1.1% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.2% 3.0% H % 1.6% 3.3% 4.1% 4.5% 4.0% 3.0% B 4.6% 4.6% 1.7% -6.6% 4.9% 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 2.6% 3.5% 2.6% 1.6% L % -1.2% -0.6% 1.3% 2.3% 1.6% 0.5% H % 7.6% 6.8% 6.0% 5.9% 5.5% 5.8% B % 8.7% 13.2% 2.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 3.8% 4.1% L % 2.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 2.6% 2.7% H % 15.9% 4.4% 4.2% 4.5% 6.1% 10.8% B 4.8% 15.5% 11.9% -1.4% 17.0% 3.9% 31.3% 12.0% 3.9% 3.6% 3.8% 5.2% 9.5% L % 8.0% 3.5% 3.1% 3.2% 4.1% 8.3% H % 11.6% 6.0% 6.1% 6.2% 6.7% 7.3% B 8.9% 32.6% 23.4% 20.4% 30.7% 7.4% 6.5% 9.3% 4.6% 4.9% 4.9% 5.1% 5.9% L % 7.1% 3.6% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 4.7% H % 3.3% 4.3% 3.4% 3.6% 2.9% 3.0% B 5.4% 4.8% -0.7% -7.5% 2.1% 4.8% 0.1% 1.7% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 1.9% 1.9% L % 0.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 1.2% 1.0% H % 5.0% 3.9% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 4.6% B 2.0% 5.8% 8.3% -2.8% 5.9% 8.2% 6.6% 3.0% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% 2.7% 3.5% L % 1.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 1.6% 2.3% H % 5.3% 5.7% 5.1% 5.1% 4.8% 5.4% B % 7.1% 11.0% 6.0% 4.2% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.2% 4.1% L % 3.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.1% 3.0% H % 7.6% 6.3% 5.8% 5.9% 8.1% 6.1% B 0.4% -1.9% 0.1% -3.3% 9.0% 3.5% 2.5% 5.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 6.0% 4.5% L % 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 3.2% H % 3.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.5% 4.8% 4.1% B 4.3% 3.7% 5.4% -0.1% 6.3% 7.8% -0.4% 1.5% 3.6% 3.9% 4.2% 3.5% 2.7% L % -0.3% 2.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.3% 1.4% STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 14

15 Annual growth Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK Ukraine ESRA02 CRCO88 CRCO11 PScheme Total AAGR 2017/ 2011 H % 5.5% 7.0% 6.7% 6.8% 7.3% 6.4% B 5.3% -2.2% 6.1% 0.7% 11.5% 5.2% 4.6% 3.7% 4.9% 5.2% 5.2% 5.5% 4.9% L % 1.9% 3.6% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% H % 6.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.8% 5.1% 4.9% B 5.9% 17.7% 8.2% -3.1% 10.3% 16.3% 2.9% 4.5% 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% 3.9% 3.7% L % 2.4% 2.2% 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% H % -0.1% 3.2% 3.9% 4.2% 3.5% 1.5% B 5.1% 8.5% -1.3% -8.4% 3.4% 5.3% -5.6% -1.6% 1.2% 2.7% 3.2% 2.5% 0.4% L % -3.1% -0.3% 1.5% 2.1% 1.4% -0.7% H % 0.8% 3.8% 3.4% 3.6% 3.4% 2.2% B 6.5% 5.6% 5.7% -11.2% 1.5% 7.9% -2.1% -0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.6% 2.3% 1.1% L % -2.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.3% 0.1% H % 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.1% 2.8% B 3.4% 6.1% 1.4% -5.1% 0.9% 1.5% -1.3% 2.7% 2.2% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3% 1.9% L % 1.4% 0.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.4% 1.0% H % 5.0% 6.1% 5.7% 5.9% 10.6% 6.1% B 8.3% 8.1% 6.4% 6.0% 10.4% 7.8% 3.2% 3.4% 5.0% 4.8% 5.0% 8.4% 5.0% L % 1.9% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 6.0% 3.8% H % 0.9% 4.0% 3.6% 3.8% 3.4% 2.2% B 3.8% 4.5% 1.4% -10.2% -4.4% 4.0% -2.8% -0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 2.4% 1.2% L % -1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 1.6% 0.3% H % 8.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.3% 7.9% B 15.6% 9.6% 12.6% -4.5% 12.4% 6.6% 3.4% 6.5% 7.1% 7.1% 7.0% 7.5% 6.4% L % 4.5% 5.8% 6.0% 5.9% 6.0% 5.2% H % 2.9% 4.5% 4.3% 4.5% 4.8% 3.4% B 4.5% 6.3% 2.1% -5.4% 3.3% 4.7% -0.6% 1.2% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 2.3% L % -0.4% 1.8% 2.2% 2.5% 2.3% 1.2% H % 1.7% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 3.6% 2.7% B 5.0% 6.3% 1.1% -7.3% 1.0% 5.1% -1.4% 0.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.2% 2.5% 1.6% L % -0.9% 1.2% 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 0.7% H % 3.1% 4.6% 4.4% 4.5% 4.8% 3.5% B 4.6% 7.3% 6.1% -5.1% 3.5% 5.0% -0.4% 1.4% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 2.4% L % -0.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.5% 2.3% 1.3% H % 2.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 3.2% B 4.4% 6.2% 5.3% -6.6% 2.6% 4.5% -0.7% 1.1% 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.0% 2.1% L % -0.5% 1.6% 2.1% 2.3% 1.9% 1.0% H % 3.3% 4.8% 4.5% 4.7% 5.0% 3.7% B 4.9% 7.4% 6.3% -5.1% 3.7% 5.1% -0.3% 1.6% 3.2% 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 2.5% L % -0.1% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 1.5% (a) The 2007, 2008 and 2009 growth figures for CRCO11, PScheme and Total are adjusted to compensate for the increase in TSUs due to the introduction of new countries in the total (in 2007, introduction of Belgrade with 920 thousand TSUs in 2008, introduction of Poland and Lithuania with 3,614 thousand TSUs - in 2009, introduction of Armenia with 111 thousand TSUs) (b) The 2008 growth figures for PScheme is adjusted for increase in TSUs due to Poland and Lithuania (3,614 thousand) newly included into the total. STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 15

16 European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL) 2012 This document is published by EUROCONTROL in the interests of exchange of information. It may be copied in whole or in part, providing that the copyright notice and disclaimer are included. The information contained in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL. EUROCONTROL makes no warranty, either implied or express, for the information contained in this document, neither does it assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of this information. For further information please contact, STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service is ISO 9001:2008 certified. STATFOR/Doc478 v1.1 EUROCONTROL Page 16