European Apple Crop Outlook 2017 a review of 2016 season and outlook Philippe Binard World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA)

Transcription

1 European Apple Crop Outlook 2017 a review of 2016 season and outlook 2017 Philippe Binard World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA)

2 European Union 2016 apple crop final -2,2 % or T Forecasted: T Final crop T 3rd largest crop of the decade

3 2016: forecast v. final +3% % % % % % % % % % -260

4 Prices trends 5Y AV Current Previous APRIL % YAGO -7% to 5Y

5 Stocks depletion Out of which T of Golden, ca T more than usual December January February March April May June July 2016/ / /2015

6 Apples trade Internal + Export trends 2013/ /2017 Total % Poland % Italy % France % Belgium % Netherland % Spain % Greece % Germany % Austria % Czech Rep % Lithuania % Portugal % Slovenia % Croatia % Hungary % UK % Latvia % Slovakia % Romania % Season /kg traded , , , ,63 For season 2016/2017 data for May to July re projected data Value trade in apples: Turnover 2,24 bio in season 2015/2016 to 2,33 bio in season 2016/2017 ( projected from April onwards )

7 European Union Apples forecast 2017:

8 Ha Apple total EU PL > HA RO,IT,FR: HA HU,DE,ES: HA UK,PT,GR,LT: HA

9 Main features : overall a relatively mild winter in most of the growing area across the EU Abundant early blossoming Two important cold spells in the last 10 days of April and then around 8-10 May Very unusual situation of such a late frost with low temperature during several hours ( -5 C to 8 C) Difficult to estimate qualitative damages

10 Huge differences of damages depending if prevention systems were available and could be used Heterogeniety of damages within same region Differences inside the same country (North and South Germany, East and West of France, valleys in Italy) Grojec and Lublin in Poland; Belgium v. Holland

11 Occurence of the cold spell affected most of the EU in April and May with t on average 5 to 10 C below average across the continent

12 Further anomaly in summer by warmer than usual also usually 5 to 10 C more than usual

13 Unpredictable

14 Quality overview Most of the countries are reporting a season slighly earlier Sizing: Mixed trends Less fruit and tree/drop leading to large size in general Drought and heath wave also have implication of smaller sizes for some varieties Quality: Unpredicatable and many variations leading to difficult estimate, some damages eliminated with thinning Frost ring and russetting present Sunburst Hail damages primarily towards the (South) East and Italy => Many questions open : Quality of produce impacting the final volume for the fresh market Long long term storability of produce

15 Apple crop EU T

16 Apple crop EU T ( T YAGO T final )

17 and also historically low looking further behind -23 %

18 Recovery crop Austria (+68%) Croatia(+89%) Hungary (+26%) Slovakia (+82%) Large crop Portugal (+19%) Medium low crop Spain (-4%) Romania (-6%) France (-8%) Low crop 9 MS with their lowest decade crop Belgium(-46%) Italy (- 23%) Poland (-29%) Slovenia (-50%)

19 2016/ % -21% -12% -25% -26% -29% -68% -46% -22% 82% -8% -23% 68% -50% 89% 26% -6% 19% -4% -10%

20 Main variation in 000 T to last season by MS in 000 T DIFF PL IT DE DK BE FR NL UK CZ GR ES RO LT SL DK LV SW SK AT HR PT HU DE

21 Varieties trends 2017

22 in 000 T DIFF Other Golden Idared Jonagold Jonagored Elstar Shampion Braeburn Ligol Red Jonaprince Red del Boskoop Gala Granny Gloster Reinette Other new Pinova Cripps Pink Fuji Morgendurf Jonathan Main variation in 000 T to last season by varieties

23 OTHER NEW VARIETIES & CRIPPS PINK CLUB VARIETIES TRENDS Trends Kanzi % Greenstar % Junami % Jazz % Envy % Miss Chef % Honey Crunch % Juliet % Cripps Pink out of which Pink Lady % 66% 69%

24 Organic apples 2016 CROP % ORGANIC ORGANIC CROP CROP 2017 % ORGANIC ORGANIC CROP AT , , DE , , FR , , RO , , IT , , NL , , UK , , SLO , , BE , , CZ , , GR , , HR , ,

25 Apples processing 2017 Volume for apples processing in selected countries (covering > 90% EU crop) Fresh market supply balance SUPPLY BALANCE PRODUCTION PROCESSING FRESH RATIO FRESH 69% 70% 67% RATIO PROCESSING 31% 30% 33% Country PL HU FR DE IT RO UK BE EL CZ NL HR LT SLO TOTAL

26 2017 crop forecast EU T (21 MS) + ca T (remaining MS Eurostat data) T -21% for 2017 (?) T EU-28: T + Switzerland: T

27 EU neighbourhood Balkans : also low crop in Bosnia, more stable in Serbia and Macedonia Moldova :slighly up at T Russia : several region affected by cold : crop ca 1,1 Mio T ( - 37%) Turkey : smaller crop than forecasted : to be between 2 to 2,5 Mio T instead of > 3 Mio Ukraine : forecast 1 Mio T ( -10% )

28 European Union Apples forecast 2017: Summary & conclusions

29 Season 2017 outlook Lowest crop since 2007 and even forecast unlikely to be reached Towards a more balance market after three complicated oversupplied maket du to strong crop and Russian embargo and political instability in North African markets well supplied in the first part of the season =>pending stock, stable gala crop, long term storability of some of the Less volume for sales in the second part ( shortage of Jonagold group (- 42%), Golden (-18%) Overall less exports expected ( no more than T?) Grower expectation of increased prices, and higher price for processing More interest of SH for their 2018 season? Outlook 2018 Interesting Prognosfruit in Poland in 2018!

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