An Analysis of the Drivers Affecting the Implementation of Cost Control in Hydropower Construction Project Based on ISM-FAHP

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1 A Aalyss of the Drvers Affectg the Implemetato of Cost Cotrol Hydropower Costructo Project Based o ISM-FAHP Yua Wu, Qg Ba School of Ecoomcs ad Maagemet, North Cha Electrc Power Uversty, Bejg, Cha bq0911@cepu.edu.c; bqbq0911@163.com Abstract- Hydropower has played a mportat role promotg the developmet of the ecoomy ad cost cotrol s oe of the key facts the hydropower costructo project. I order to carry out cost cotrol effectvely, we develop a model of the drvers affectg the mplemetato of cost cotrol of hydropower costructo project usg a Iterpretve Structural Modelg (ISM) framework. The varous drvers of cost cotrol of hydropower costructo project (CHCP) are detfed based o the relatve lteratures ad o cosultatos wth experts the dustry. Ad we calculate the weght values of these drvers each layer of the ISM framework usg Fuzzy Aalytcal Herarchy Process (FAHP). The research has a obvous theoretc ad practcal value for dstrbutg resources properly ad reducg cost waste the hydropower costructo project. Ad t would help project maager to master cost cotrol the hydropower costructo project ad mprove project maagemet level. Keywords- Hydropower Costructo Project; Cost Cotrol; Drvers; Iterpretve Structural Modelg(ISM); Fuzzy Aalytcal Herarchy Process (FAHP) I. INTRODUCTION Wth the rapd developmet of the ecoomy the world, eergy gradually becomes the key promotg force. The tradtoal eergy wll become exhausted so that varous kds of ew eergy emerge. Compared wth other kds of ew eergy, hydropower takes a leadg place the aspects of capacty, operatg hours, power fluctuato ad the evrometal protecto. Therefore, t develops rapdly the world, especally the developg coutres. However, t takes a large sum of moey to costruct the hydropower plat ad there exst may problems cost cotrol, such as the extesve maagemet, weak ecoomy from the decso phase to the mplemetato phase the hydropower project ad so o, whch greatly affect the developmet of hydropower. Therefore, t wll largely promote the developmet of hydropower by chagg the dea of cost cotrol, takg up some scetfc ad ratoal methods ad turg to tesve cotrol, whch s of great sgfcace practce. From vewpot of evaluato method, cost cotrol evaluato from domestc ad foreg scholars has bee matured ad cosummate, the evaluato methods clude Mote Carlo Method [1], Value Egeerg(VE) [2], the Lfe Cycle [3], tme-cost devato aalyss [4], Actvty-Based Costg(ABC) [5], eared value method [6] ad so o. However, these methodologes are oly lmted to qualtatve aalyss, ad seldom volve modelg ad calculato. At preset, oe of the best methods that combe qualtatve aalyss wth quattatve aalyss s structural aalyss, whch cludes Iterpretve Structural Modelg(ISM) ad Aalytc Herarchy Process (AHP). Ad fuzzy AHP s a method that troduces fuzzy logcal prcpal to the AHP, whch s more accurate ad sutable for the evaluato. Zhag-yg [7] otarzed the ma barrers ad ther teractos, whch couterwork the developmet of automoble reverse logstcs wth the help of ISM. Kaa Govdab [8] proposed a tegrated model whch aalyzes ad selects gree supplers based o ther evrometal performace usg ISM ad AHP modelg. Ludovc-Alexadre Vdal [9] defed a measure of project complexty by usg a Delph process ad the AHP order to assst decso-makg, otably whe aalyzg several projects a portfolo, or whe studyg dfferet areas of a project. Ezatollah Karam [10] explored the use of AHP for selectg a approprate rrgato method. Zheg-Guozhog [11] proposed the Fuzzy Aalytc Herarchy Process (FAHP) method to evaluate the work safety hot ad humd evromets. Chou-Yg-Chy [12] teded to use a combato of FAHP ad Fuzzy Decso Makg Tral ad Evaluato Laboratory (DEMATEL) method huma resource for scece ad techology (HRST). Vewed from the above lteratures, oe of the researches combe the ISM ad the fuzzy AHP together. Geerally, the AHP s based o the ISM, whch meas the weght values of each drver for the geeral target of the system could be calculated by usg the AHP method based o the ISM model. Based o the above cosderatos, ths paper s cocer wth the drvers affectg the mplemetato of cost cotrol the hydropower costructo project. By usg a Delph process, the drvers for cost cotrol are frst detfed. Secod, a ISM model s establshed to detfy the major drvers that affect the mplemetato of cost cotrol ad aalyze the relatoshps betwee each other. The, based o the ISM model, the FAHP s used to calculate the weght values of the drvers each layer of the model ad detfy ther sgfcace, whch offer scetfc bass for cost cotrol the hydropower costructo project. The remader of ths paper s orgazed as follows. The drvers for cost cotrol are detfed ad the ISM model s establshed Secto Ⅱ. Secto Ⅲ presets the calculato of the weght values of the drvers each layer of the ISM model. Ad we coclude the paper Secto Ⅳ. II. ANALYSIS FOR THE DRIVERS OF COST CONTROL IN THE HYDROPOWER CONSTRUCTION PROJECT BASED ON ISM I ths work, the methodology of ISM s used, whch was developed for complex stuatos as a commucato tool. The ma beefts of the ISM methodology s that t

2 trasforms uclear ad poorly artculated models of systems to vsble ad well-defed models accordg to the work of [13]. We ow apply the ISM methodology to the cost cotrol the hydropower costructo project accordg to the steps below. A. Idetfcato of the Varous Drvers Ivolved the Implemetato of Cost Cotrol Hydropower Costructo Project ad Developmet of Structural Self-Iteracto Matrx (SSIM) The varous drvers mportat to the mplemetato of cost cotrol the hydropower costructo project are detfed based o lterature revew ad a decso-makg team whch cludes experts from the dustry. The major drvers detfed ths study are gve below: hydropower vestmet schedule (S1), optmzato of the desg scheme (S2), troducto of key techology (S3), localzato of major equpmet (S4), procuremet of equpmet ad materal (S5), cotract maagemet (S6), desg alterato ad ste vsa (S7), costructo orgazato maagemet (S8), desg TABLE Ⅰ STRUCTURAL SELF-INTERACTION MATRIX FOR THE DRIVERS maagemet (S9), costructo scale of the project troducto of key techology (S10), vestmet aalytcal ablty (S11), costructo target (S12), costructo orgazato desg (S13), project bddg (S14), processg techology route (S15), desg supervso (S16). Based o cotextual relatoshp amog detfed drvers, a Structural Self-Iteracto Matrx (SSIM) s developed (Table Ⅰ). Ths matrx dcates the par-wse relatoshps amog the drvers affectg the mplemetato of cost cotrol hydropower costructo project. The symbols used to deote the drecto of the relatoshp betwee the drvers are gve below. Let us assume that the drvers uder study are ad j, the the symbol V deotes that drver wll help to acheve drver j, the symbol A meas that drver j wll help to acheve drver. The symbol X meas drvers ad j wll help each other to be acheved, ad the symbol O meas the drvers are urelated. Drvers S 1 S 2 S 3 S 4 S 5 S 6 S 7 S 8 S 9 S 10 S 11 S 12 S 13 S 14 S 15 S 16 S 1 V V V V V V V V A 0 A V V V V S 2 V V V V V V 0 A A A 0 V 0 0 S A A A A A 0 A A S A A A A A 0 A A S A A A A A 0 A A S A A A A A 0 A A S 7 0 A A A A A 0 A A S 8 A A A A A 0 A A S 9 A A A 0 V 0 A S 10 0 A V V V V S 11 0 V V V V S 12 V V V V S 13 V 0 A S 14 A A S 15 0 S 16 B. Adjacecy Matrx ad Reachablty Matrx We derve the adjacecy matrx from the Structural Self-Iteracto Matrx (SSIM) developed the prevous step. The adjacecy matrx s costructed from the Structural Self-Iteracto Matrx (SSIM) usg the followg rules: If the (, j) etry the SSIM s V, the (, j) etry the adjacecy matrx s set to 1 ad the (j, ) etry s set to 0. If the (, j) etry the SSIM s A, the (, j) etry the adjacecy matrx s set to 0 ad the (j, ) etry s set to 1. If the (, j) etry the SSIM s X, the (, j) etry the adjacecy matrx s set to 1 ad the (j, ) etry s set to 1. If the (, j) etry the SSIM s O, the (, j) etry the adjacecy matrx s set to 0 ad the (j, ) etry s set to 0. The reachablty matrx s costructed from the adjacecy matrx takg to accout the trastvty rule, whch states that f a varable A s related to B ad B s related to C, the A s ecessarly related to C. C. Reorderg of Reachablty Matrx ad Formato of ISM Model The reachablty matrx obtaed Secto B above s reordered to dfferet levels based o ther drver power ad depedece power. Based o the research of [7], the sum of the drvers each le of the reachablty matrx represets the drver power of the le, whch meas ts fluece o the system. Ad the sum of the drvers each colum of the reachablty matrx represets the depedece power of the colum, whch meas ts degree of fluece gve by other drvers. Based o a large umber of examples, a drver wth strog drver power s a key drver. Therefore, the reordered reachablty matrx (Table Ⅱ) ca be costructed accordg to the stregth of the drver power ad the depedece power reordered from weak to strog. The drvers wth the same drver power are cosdered the same level the ISM herarchy

3 TABLE Ⅱ REORDERED REACHABILITY MATRIX R* Drvers S 3 S 4 S 5 S 14 S 6 S 8 S 7 S 9 S 13 S 15 S 2 S 16 S 1 S 10 S 12 S 11 Drver Power S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S Depedece Power It s mpled that troducto of key techology, localzato of major equpmet, procuremet of equpmet ad materal, project bddg, cotract maagemet, costructo orgazato maagemet, desg alterato ad ste vsa are postoed at level I ad form the top level the ISM herarchy. Processg techology route, optmzato of the desg scheme, desg maagemet ad costructo orgazato desg are postoed at level II; desg supervso s placed at level III; hydropower vestmet schedule s placed at level IV; costructo scale of the project ad vestmet aalytcal ablty s placed at level V, costructo target fall at level Ⅵ. Wth the help of the level partto show above, a model for the varous drvers mportat to mplemetg cost cotrol hydropower costructo project s developed, ad show Fg. 1. III. DRIVERS EVALUATION BASED ON THE FUZZY AHP Based o the ISM model, fuzzy AHP ca be used to calculate the weght values of the drvers each layer of the ISM model. Fuzzy AHP was based o the cocept of fuzzy set theory ad orgally troduced by va Laarhove ad Pedrycz. It s a useful tool to deal wth mprecse, ucerta or ambguous data. Decso makers usually feel more cofdet to gve lgustc varables rather tha expressg ther judgmets the form of exact umerc values. Therefore fuzzy AHP s more approprate for cost cotrol evaluato the hydropower costructo project. I covetoal fuzzy AHP, 9-pot scale s frequetly used to represet the par-wse comparso. I ths study, trapezodal fuzzy umbers are used to represet subjectve par-wse comparsos. The scale of the relatve mportace to measure comparso ad the correspodg trapezodal fuzzy umbers are gve Table Ⅲ. The fuzzy judgmet matrxes for drvers each layer of the ISM model are frst establshed based o the par-wse comparso results by a Delph process ad the trapezodal fuzzy umbers. Secod, based o the fuzzy judgmet matrxes, the weghts ca be calculated as follows. Order a j M a (, j 1, 2,..., ) (1) j j 1 -- W M (2) meas the elemets the fuzzy judgmet matrx ad j meas the colum umber of the elemet the fuzzy judgmet matrx. The the weghts ca be obtaed: W W (3) W 1 The fuzzy weght vector W s costructed as: W= (W 1, W 2,, W ) T The largest egevalue λ max ca be obtaed: λ max = ( AW ) (4) 1 W A s the fuzzy judgmet matrx, W =( W 1, W 2,, W ) T, ad s the matrx sze. Fally, the cosstecy of the comparso matrx ca be determed by the cosstecy rato (CR), whch s fed as:

4 CR= CI RI λ CI= max -1 (5) (6) where CI s the cosstecy dex, RI s the radom dex, whch s show Table Ⅳ, s the matrx sze. As a rule, oly f CR<0.10, the cosstecy of the matrx s cosdered as acceptable, otherwse the par-wse comparsos should be revsed. Fg. 1 ISM model for the drvers affectg the mplemetato of cost cotrol hydropower costructo project TABLE Ⅲ SCALE OF RELATIVE IMPORTANCE USED IN THE PAIR-WISE COMPARISON OF AHP Trapezodal fuzzy umber Scale of relatve mportace(crsp umber) Lgustc varable (1,1,1,1) 1 Equally mportat (2,5/2,7/2,4) 3 Weakly mportat (4,9/2,11/2,6) 5 Essetally mportat (6,13/2,15/2,8) 7 Very strogly mportat (8,17/2,19/2,10) 9 Absolutely mportat (m-1,m-1/2,m+1/2 m+1) m=2,4,6,8 are termedate scales TABLE Ⅳ THE RANDOM CONSISTENCY INDEX (RI) Sze () RI TABLE Ⅴ WEIGHT VALUES OF THE DRIVERS FOR COST CONTROL IN HYDROPOWER PROJECT Drvers S 3 S 4 S 5 S 6 S 7 S 8 S 14 level I Drvers S 2 S 9 S 13 S 15 level II Drvers S 10 S 11 level V Based o the steps show above, the weght values each layer of the ISM model for the drvers affectg the mplemetato of cost cotrol hydropower costructo project ca be calculated (Table Ⅴ). Ad the cosstecy of all the matrxes s cosdered as acceptable. Therefore, ther weght values ca be determed ad show Fg. 1. IV. CONCLUSIONS Wth the comg of the perod of ew eergy, as good clea eergy, the hydropower s sure to be developg rapdly, whch ca ot oly make full use of the clea resources the ature, but also provde eough eergy ad promote the developmet of the ecoomy Cha. Ad a proper method for cost cotrol s of great sgfcace for the developmet of the hydropower. Ths paper has vestgated the drvers affectg the mplemetato of cost cotrol hydropower costructo project. Frst, the varous drvers mportat to the mplemetato of cost cotrol the hydropower costructo project are detfed based o lterature revew ad a decso-makg team. The, a ISM model s establshed to aalyze the teracto betwee these drvers for cost cotrol. Fally, the method of fuzzy AHP s troduced to calculate the weght values of the drvers each layer of the ISM model. Wsh to have some help for cost cotrol practces

5 the hydropower costructo project! ACKNOWLEDGMENT Ths work s partally supported by the Natoal Natural Scece Foudato of Cha uder Grats The authors also gratefully ackowledge the helpful commets ad suggestos of the revewers, whch have mproved the presetato. REFERENCES [1] D. Feretc, Z. Tomsc, Probablstc aalyss of electrcal eergy costs comparg: producto costs for gas, coal ad uclear power plats, Eergy Polcy, 2005, pp [2] C. Z. L, The research o the applcato of value egeerg the cost maagemet of costructo project, Joural of Cha Trade, 2010, pp [3] S. G. Zhag, The lfe cycle cost maagemet research o egeerg costructo project, Chagsha: South Cha Uversty of Techology, [4] C. Y. Su, Study o costructo ad stallato cost maagemet egeerg projects, Chegdu: Schua Uversty, [5] S. X. Zhag, Study o ABCM ad ts applcato, X'a: X a Uversty of Techology, [6] Y. Q. Luo, Study o project tems schedulg ad cost ute cotrol, X'a: X'a Uversty of Archtecture ad Techology, [7] Y. Zhag, Aalyss of major barrers of automoble reverse logstcs based o ISM, Joural of Southeast Uversty (Natural Scece Edto), 2007, pp [8] G. Kaa, A. N. Haq, P. S. Kumar, S. Aruachalam, Aalyss ad selecto of gree supplers usg terpretatve structural modelg ad aalytc herarchy process, Iteratoal Joural of Maagemet ad Decso Makg, 2008, pp [9] L. A. Vdal, F. Marle, J. C. Bocquet, Usg a Delph process ad the Aalytc Herarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate the complexty of projects, Expert Systems wth Applcatos, 2011, pp [10] E. Karam, Approprateess of farmers adopto of rrgato methods: The applcato of the AHP model, Agrcultural Systems, 2006, pp [11] G. Z. Zheg, N. Zhu, Z. Ta, Y. Che, B. H. Su, Applcato of a trapezodal fuzzy AHP method for work safety evaluato ad early warg ratg of hot ad humd, Safety Scece, 2012, pp [12] Y. C. Chou, C. C. Su, H. Y. Ye, Evaluatg the crtera for huma resource for scece ad techology (HRST) based o a tegrated fuzzy AHP ad fuzzy DEMATEL approach, Appled Soft Computg, 2012, pp [13] A. P. Sage, Iterpretve structural modelg: methodology for large-scale systems, New York: McGraw-Hll,