Premier Vision. April 2018

Transcription

1 Premier Vision April 2018

2 Contents Tax Free Trends Summary 03 Tax Free Sales Trends 05 Tax Free Sales by Destination and Source 06 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country 08 Currency Trends 10 Arrivals Forecast Europe Overview 12 France 13 United Kingdom 14 Italy 15 Spain 16 Germany 17 Austria 18 Finland 19 International Holiday Calender 20 Premier Vision 2

3 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary April % Total Sales -9% Total Vouchers +0% Total ATV +4% Total Arrivals Top 5 Destination Markets Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals FRA -4% -5% +1% +6% CHN -6% -9% +3% +17% GBR -23% -18% -6% -1% +0% +4% -4% -3% ITA -5% -1% -4% +6% RUS -24% -22% -3% +8% ESP -8% -11% +3% +2% TWN +16% +13% +3% +27% DEU -6% +1% -7% +11% THA -8% -16% +10% -2% Premier Vision 3

4 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary YTD -6% Total Sales -8% Total Vouchers +3% Total ATV +6% Total Arrivals Top 5 Destination Markets Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals FRA -5% -7% +2% +9% CHN +0% -9% +10% +9% GBR -17% -11% -6% +2% RUS -14% -9% -5% +2% ITA +4% +5% -1% +9% -6% -8% +1% +1% ESP -8% -14% +7% +8% HKG -19% -18% -1% +2% DEU -8% -5% -3% +3% TWN -5% -1% -4% +11% Premier Vision 4

5 Tax Free Shopping Sales Trends April 2018 Overview Tax Free shopping sales in April continued to reflect the trends seen in March Sales experienced a decline of 8% in the month and vouchers also declined by 9% each month. The notable exception to this was Italy, which had previously been the only major destination that had appeared immune to the declines seen across each of the other major destinations. Sales in Italy registered a decline of 5% in April; however, the exceptional 31% increase in April 2017 provides some context to this decline. The comparison to the particularly strong rates of growth seen in 2017 was also evidenced for Tax Free sales across Europe, with growth of c.20% registered in April This will likely continue through most of the second quarter of 2018, with the propensity for gains likely to be significantly increased in the second half of the year. The outlook for arrival numbers continues to remain robust with a 4% growth of Non-EU arrivals predicted between May through to July. This would be incremental to the 10.6% increase in the same three-month period in the prior year. In addition, the celebrations for the end of Ramadan on 14th June are expected to provide a boost to both arrivals and sales numbers. Chinese consumption of Luxury Goods sees strong gains, in China In the first four months of 2018, sales to Chinese tourists in Europe have been broadly flat compared to the same time frame in 2017 somewhat attributable to the significant 31% increase seen in the same period in the previous year. In contrast, the Chinese authorities desire to boost domestic consumption and thereby economic growth appears to be paying off, with sales of luxury goods in China reported to be demonstrating strong gains in the first quarter of One contributing factor is that the Chinese government has purportedly reduced import duties to such an extent that this has resulted in a decrease in the average price differentials historically seen in China. In 2011, it was reported that luxury goods were on average 68% more expensive in China as compared to average global prices, but by 2017, they were only 16% higher. Whilst this suggests that there is a repatriation of spend, it could also be due to fluctuations in the exchange rate and a strengthening Euro in recent months, and the continued allure and preference of purchasing European goods in cities across Europe remains strong. In addition, the prediction by the CEO of Ctrip that the current number of Chinese passport holders will double from the current 120m (8.7% of the population), to 240m by 2040, suggests there will no shortage of international tourists seeking to shop Tax Free. For Ramadan to provide a boost to sales this year, focus on the right nationalities In contrast to the majority of nationalities, sales to the main Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) nations were subdued in 2017, registering a modest decline of 3% in the year. This was attributable to a number of reasons including low oil prices, austerity measures, geo-political issues including the blockade of Qatar, and the majority of these nations currencies being pegged to the US Dollar. In contrast, sales to residents of countries that represent the highest number of adherents to Islam, namely Indonesia and India, saw gains of 23% and 24% respectively in Sales to Indonesian tourists during the week of the Eid al-fitr celebrations at the end of Ramadan represented 26% of total sales to this group of tourists, whilst sales to Indian and Emirati tourists represented 19% of these tourists total sales. Therefore, retailers should look beyond just the traditional GCC nationalities associated and perceived as being the biggest spenders during Eid al-fitr. Instead, the Eid al-adha period (21-25th August in 2018) represents the peak of the GCC nations spend pattern. The burgeoning middle classes of both India and Indonesia, fuelled by predictions of significant economic expansion, means that these nationalities will continue to gain prominence and significance. That said, arrivals from the main GCC nations are expected to witness double-digit gains in June, fuelled by the timing of the school holidays in Saudi Arabia. Premier Vision 5

6 Sales Performance April 2018 By Destination By Source Market FRA -3.6% CHN -5.7% GBR -23.5% +0.4% ITA -4.5% RUS -24.1% ESP -8.4% TWN +16.2% DEU -6.0% THA -8.3% AUT -5.2% HKG -28.1% CZE -6.9% UAE -21.8% IRL -5.0% KOR -11.3% PRT -8.4% KUW -21.3% CHE +15.9% SAU -41.7% Premier Vision 6

7 Sales Performance YTD By Destination By Source Market FRA -5.0% CHN +0.0% GBR -16.9% RUS -13.7% ITA +4.1% -6.3% ESP -8.2% HKG -19.3% DEU -7.8% TWN -5.0% AUT +6.7% KOR -7.2% PRT -5.3% THA -1.2% CZE -5.1% UAE -15.9% IRL -14.3% KUW -17.5% CHE +23.7% SAU -14.0% Premier Vision 7

8 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country April 2018 Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales FRANCE CHINA 32% 1,924-3% 9% 1,343 11% HONG KONG 6% 3,604-33% TAIWAN 5% 1,966 24% SOUTH KOREA 5% % AUSTRIA CHINA 20% 596-5% TAIWAN 12% % SWITZERLAND 11% % THAILAND 10% 748 9% RUSSIA 9% % UK CHINA 19% % 7% % UAE 7% % KUWAIT 7% % THAILAND 5% % CZECH REP TAIWAN 25% % RUSSIA 22% % CHINA 15% % SOUTH KOREA 8% % 4% % ITALY CHINA 30% 1,125-3% 9% 1,038 6% RUSSIA 8% % TAIWAN 6% 1,228-3% THAILAND 4% 1,363 9% IRELAND 39% % CHINA 33% % CANADA 4% % AUSTRALIA 2% % MALAYSIA 2% % SPAIN CHINA 26% 760-6% 8% % RUSSIA 5% % ARGENTINA 5% 231-6% TAIWAN 4% % PORTUGAL CHINA 27% 1,622-20% BRAZIL 21% 376-9% ANGOLA 18% % HONG KONG 5% 4,791 30% RUSSIA 3% % GERMANY CHINA 31% 554-7% RUSSIA 10% % THAILAND 8% 852-9% UAE 7% % TAIWAN 5% 405 1% SWITZERLAND CHINA 21% 1,402 31% THAILAND 9% 1,236-7% UAE 9% 1,915 21% TAIWAN 6% 1, % RUSSIA 6% 1,449-27% Premier Vision 8

9 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country YTD Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales FRANCE CHINA 33% 1,879 5% HONG KONG 8% 4,849-22% 7% 1,350 4% RUSSIA 5% 1,490-20% SOUTH KOREA 5% % AUSTRIA CHINA 20% % RUSSIA 17% 433-7% SWITZERLAND 11% % TAIWAN 7% % UKRAINE 6% % UK CHINA 23% % KUWAIT 7% % UAE 6% % 6% % QATAR 5% 698 1% PORTUGAL CHINA 31% 1,793 1% BRAZIL 22% 372-9% ANGOLA 17% % HONG KONG 4% 7,231 35% RUSSIA 4% % ITALY CHINA 31% 1,163 9% RUSSIA 12% 803-7% 8% 1,077 16% TAIWAN 6% 1,243-3% SOUTH KOREA 5% % CZECH REP. RUSSIA 31% % TAIWAN 18% % CHINA 17% 378 4% SOUTH KOREA 6% % UKRAINE 4% 552-6% SPAIN CHINA 31% 768-4% RUSSIA 6% % 6% % ARGENTINA 4% 243-9% MOROCCO 4% 334 2% IRELAND CHINA 42% % 28% 121 8% MALAYSIA 3% % AUSTRALIA 3% % CANADA 3% 123 7% GERMANY CHINA 30% 591-8% RUSSIA 14% 532-7% THAILAND 6% 1,035-5% UAE 4% % SWITZERLAND 4% 346-3% SWITZERLAND CHINA 22% 1,382 45% RUSSIA 9% 1,385-16% UAE 7% 2,403 23% 5% 1,496 30% THAILAND 5% 1,229 7% Premier Vision 9

10 Currency vs Euro & GBP: Top Source Markets Currency movements: Last 52 Weeks CNY > EUR RUB > EUR CNY > GBP USD > EUR HKD > EUR USD > GBP Premier Vision 10

11 Arrivals Forecast In partnership with Know tomorrow s travellers

12 Europe Overview Outlook & Opportunity The outlook for Non-EU tourist arrival numbers for the period from May through to July 2018 suggests total arrivals growth of 4.1%, which would be incremental to the 10.6% increase seen in the same period in the prior year. All major destination markets are predicted to increase, with Italy once again expected to see the strongest growth (8.7%). From a source market perspective, arrivals of Chinese tourists are predicted to be broadly flat over this period. Indeed, only Italy and France are expected to see an increase, with growths of 3% and 6%, respectively. Total arrival numbers in May were expected to decline due to the timing of the national holidays for the Dragon Boat Festival which ran from 28 th-30th May in 2017 and which now falls on 16 th-18th June in This festival, as well as the advent of Eid al-fitr at the end of Ramadan on 14th June, should serve to provide a boost to sales in this period. Arrivals from Russia continue to trend downwards, owing to both geo-political issues and the upcoming World Cup tournament. On the other hand, arrivals of American tourists look encouraging with growth of just below 10% predicted. In recent weeks, the dollar has surged against a raft of currencies, as expectations for interest rate increases have served to strengthen the dollar, and conversely, data from the UK and Europe suggest interest rate increases are unlikely in the short term. UK JUL % JUL % FRANCE JUL % JUL % SPAIN JUL % JUL % FINLAND JUL % JUL % GERMANY JUL % JUL % AUSTRIA JUL % JUL % ITALY JUL % JUL % Premier Vision 12

13 3 Month Arrivals Outlook RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA JUL % JUL % JUL % FRANCE JUL % JUL % JUL % S. KOREA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JAPAN JUL % BRAZIL JUL % JUL % JUL % TAIWAN JUL % KUWAIT JUL % JUL % JUL % THAILAND JUL % S.ARABIA QATAR UAE INDIA AUSTRALIA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % Premier Vision 13

14 3 Month Arrivals Outlook RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA JUL % JUL % JUL % UK JUL % JUL % JUL % S. KOREA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JAPAN JUL % BRAZIL JUL % JUL % JUL % TAIWAN JUL % KUWAIT JUL % JUL % JUL % THAILAND JUL % S.ARABIA QATAR UAE INDIA AUSTRALIA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % Premier Vision 14

15 3 Month Arrivals Outlook RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA JUL % JUL % JUL % ITALY JUL % JUL % JUL % S. KOREA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JAPAN JUL % BRAZIL JUL % JUL % JUL % TAIWAN JUL % KUWAIT JUL % JUL % JUL % THAILAND JUL % S.ARABIA QATAR UAE INDIA AUSTRALIA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % Premier Vision 15

16 3 Month Arrivals Outlook RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA JUL % JUL % JUL % SPAIN JUL % JUL % JUL % S. KOREA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JAPAN JUL % BRAZIL JUL % JUL % JUL % TAIWAN JUL % KUWAIT JUL % JUL % JUL % THAILAND JUL % S.ARABIA QATAR UAE INDIA AUSTRALIA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % Premier Vision 16

17 3 Month Arrivals Outlook RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA JUL % JUL % JUL % GERMANY JUL % JUL % JUL % S. KOREA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JAPAN JUL % BRAZIL JUL % JUL % JUL % TAIWAN JUL % KUWAIT JUL % JUL % JUL % THAILAND JUL % S.ARABIA QATAR UAE INDIA AUSTRALIA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % Premier Vision 17

18 3 Month Arrivals Outlook RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA JUL % JUL % JUL % AUSTRIA JUL % JUL % JUL % S. KOREA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JAPAN JUL % BRAZIL JUL % JUL % JUL % TAIWAN JUL % KUWAIT JUL % JUL % JUL % THAILAND JUL % S.ARABIA QATAR UAE INDIA AUSTRALIA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % Premier Vision 18

19 3 Month Arrivals Outlook RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA JUL % JUL % JUL % FINLAND JUL % JUL % JUL % S. KOREA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JAPAN JUL % BRAZIL JUL % JUL % JUL % TAIWAN JUL % KUWAIT JUL % JUL % JUL % THAILAND JUL % S.ARABIA QATAR UAE INDIA AUSTRALIA JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % JUL % Premier Vision 19

20 International Holiday Calendar 2018 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC CHN 1-2 New Year s Holiday Spring Festival - Chinese New Year 5 Qing Ming Jie 1 Labour Day 18 Dragon Boat Festival 24 Mid-Autumn Festival 1 National Day 2-7 Golden Week Holiday RUS 1 New Year s Day 7 Orthodox Xmas Day 23 Defence of the Fatherland Day 8 Women s Day 1 Labour Day 9 Victory Day 12 National Day 4-6 Unity Day Holiday IND 36 Republic Day 13 Maha Shivaratri 25 Rama Navami 29 Mahavir Jayanti 30 Good Friday 30 Buddha Purnima 15 Independence Day 22 Bakr Id / Eid ul-adha 3 Janmashtami 21 Muharram / Ashura 19 Dussehra 7 Diwali / Deepavali 21 Milad un-nabi 23 Guru Nanak Jayanti 25 Christmas Day BRA 1 New Year s Day Carnival 30 Good Friday 21 Tiradentes Day 1 Labour Day / May Day 31 Corpus Christi 7 Independence Day 12 Our Lady Aparecida Day / Childeren s Day 28 Public Service Holiday 2 All Soul s Day 15 Republic Proclamation Day 24 Christmas Eve 25 Christmas Day 31 New Years Eve MID EAST 1 New Year s Day 6 Army Day (Iraq) 11 Revolution Day (Iran) 25 Kuwaiti National Day 26 Liberation Day (Kuwait) 20 Oil Nationalisation Day (Iran) Perian New Year (Iran) 30 Birthday of Imam Ali (Iran) 1 Islamic Republic Day (Iran) 2 Nature Day (Iran) Pesach I (First day of Passover - Israel) 13 Prophet s Ascension (UAE/Iran) 24 Isra & Miraj (Oman) 27 Isra & Miraj (Kuwait) 1 Labour Day / May Day (Iraq / Bahrain) 2 Israel Independence Day) 31 Pentecost (Israel) 4 Anniversary of Khomeni s Death (Iran) Eid-al-Fitr (UAE) Eid-al-Fitr (Oman) Eid-al-Fitr (Kuwait) 23 Renaissance Day (Oman) 21 Arafat Day (UAE) 21 Eid-e-Ghorban (Iran) Eid-al-Adha 1 Waqfat Arafat Day (Kuwait) 2-4 Eid-al-Adha (Kuwait / Saudi Arabia) 12 Islamic New Year (UAE / Bahrain / Iraq) 19 Tassoua (Iran) Rosh Hashana (Israel New Year) 22 Islamic New Year (Kuwait) 24 Saudi National Day 30 Yom Kippur (Israel) 3 Iraqi Independence Day 5-11 Sukkot (Israel) 12 Simchat Torah (Israel) 29 Arbaeen (Iran) 21 Mouloud - Prophet s Birthday (UAE). 21 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday (Iran) 30 Commemoration Day (UAE) 1 Prophet s Birthday (Kuwait) 2 National Day (UAE) National Day (Bahrain) HKG 1 New Year s Day Spring Festival - Chinese New Year 30 Good Friday 31 Holy Saturday 2 Easter Monday 5 Tomb Sweeping 1 Labour Day 22 Buddha s Birthday 18 Dragon Boat Festival 1-2 Establishment Day Holiday 25 Day after Mid-Autumn Festival 1 PRC National Day 17 Chung Yeung Festival 25 Christmas Day 26 Boxing Day IDN 1 New Year s Day 16 Spring Festival - Chinese New Year 17 Day of Silence & Hindu New Year 30 Good Friday 13 Ascension of the Prophet Mohammad 1 Labour Day 10 Ascension Day of Jesus Christ 29 Waisak Day Idul Fitri 17 Independence Day 21 Muslim Day of Sacrifice 11 Muharram - Islamic New Year 20 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday 25 Christmas Day MYS 16 Spring Festival - Chinese New Year 29 Wesak Day 1 Labour Day Hari Raya 28 Yang di-pertuan Agong s Birthday 22 Hari Raya Haji 31 Nataional day 12 Muharram - Islamic New Year 16 Malaysia Day 7 Diwali / Deepavali 21 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday 25 Christmas Day THA 1 New Year s Day 31 Makha Bucha 6 Chakri Day Songkran 29 Visakha Bucha 1 Labour Day 10 Royal Ploughing Ceremony Day 27 Asalha Bucha 28 King Vajiralongkorn s Birthday 28 Buddhist Lent Day The Queen s Birthday Mother s Day 23 Chulalongkorn Day 5 Father s Day 10 Constitution Day 31 New Year s Eve JAP 1 New Year s Day 8 Coming of Age Day National Foundation Day 21 Spring Equinox Showa Day 3 Constitution Memorial Day 4 Greenery Day 5 Childeren s Day 16 Sea Day 11 Mountain Day 17 Respect the Aged Day 8 Sports Day 3 Culture Day 23 Labour Thanksgiving Day Emporor s Birthday 1 New Year s Day 15 Martin Luther King Jr Day 19 President s Day 4 Independence Day 3 Labour Day 8 Columbus Day Veteran s Day 22 Thanksgiving Day 25 Christmas Day Premier Vision 20

21 Part of the Fintrax Group Fintrax Group Holdings Headquartered in Galway, Ireland Web: premiertaxfree.com/business If you would like to know more about Tax Free Statistics, please get in touch with your Premier Tax Free representative.