Research Article. Risk assessment on shipping logistics of dangerous chemicals

Transcription

1 Avalable onlne Journal of Chemcal and Pharmaceutcal Research 203 5(: Research Artcle ISSN : CODEN(USA : JCPRC5 Rsk assessment on shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals LIU Bo Shen Ju-qn Tang Lang and U Z-ln Department of Accountng School of Busness Hoha Unversty Nanng P. R. Chna ABSTRACT The basc steps for conductng rsk assessment on shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals are frst proposed. And then a model for the rsk assessment s establshed employng the matter-element based method and GAHP Approach to be used as a reference for formulatng correspondng strateges. Keywords: dangerous chemcals; rsk assessment; shppng logstcs; matter-element based approach INTRODUCTION Chemcal ndustry n Chna wtnesses fast development along wth contnuous economc and socal progress and resultng from favorable polces n recent years. Correspondngly shpment of dangerous chemcals s also developng wth a growng speed []. However shpment of dangerous chemcals s of relatvely hgh rsk for the specal propertes of the artcles durng shppng. And even the socety would be affected once an accdent occurs. The research therefore dentfes the rsks estng durng shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals and conducts a rsk assessment for that from the perspectve of rsk management. The purpose of t s to lower the rsks and ensure smooth operaton of shppng dangerous chemcals. Establshng nde system Identfyng nde weghts and establshng rsk assessment model Identfyng Egen values of the ndees Estmatng the rsks Graph Flowchart of rsk assessment on shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals Basc procedures of rsk assessment on shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals The followng procedures are proposed to ensure the valdty of the rsk assessment. Specfcally an nde system s frst establshed for the rsk assessment referrng to the results of dentfyng rsks on shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals and n complance wth certan prncples [2]. A model for the rsk assessment s then establshed 362

2 LIU Bo et al J. Chem. Pharm. Res (: employng proper and relevant methods or models. Fnally the Egen values of varous ndees are dentfed accordng to the actual condtons and the rsks are estmated n a scentfc way based on the model prevously establshed. Those data are then to be used as a reference for formulatng correspondng strateges for rsk control. The basc procedures for the rsk assessment on shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals are llustrated n Graph. 2 Establshng nde system for the rsk assessment Establshng an nde system s gven top prorty to conduct the rsk assessment. In the process certan prncples are recommended to be abded by ncludng scentfc prncple representatve prncple comparable prncple operatonal prncple and systematc prncple so as to promote the establshng of nde system of the assessment n a proper way [3]. Moreover the system shall be a complcated nde system wth ndees of mult-layers consstng of frst and second class ndees rather than a untary system [4]. Frst class ndees n the system are presented n Graph 2. Graph 2 Frst class ndees n the system for the rsk assessment on shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals Based on the frst class nde system the second class nde system s establshed accordng to the results of dentfyng rsk n shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals to reflect frst class ndees. Thus the nde system for rsk assessment s formed as shown n Table. 3 Establshng up models for rsk assessment of shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals Accordng to the basc procedures after completng the nde system for rsk assessment the net shall be establshng up models for the assessment. Many methods are among the choces for conductng rsk assessment on shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals partcularly n qualtatve evaluaton n whch Systems Scence and Decson Makng theores can be ntroduced. Moreover t s found that each method s of ts own merts demerts and scope of applcaton after a comparson of the methods ncludng Prncpal Component Analyss Grey System Theory Fuzzy Comprehensve Evaluaton Ideal Soluton Matter-element model and Analytcal Herarchy Process [5]. Based on the comparson an assessment model s proposed to be establshed wth a combnaton of the Matter-element Approach and Group Analytcal Herarchy Process to promote the research. 363

3 LIU Bo et al J. Chem. Pharm. Res (: Table Inde system for rsk assessment of shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals Inde Frst class nde Second class nde Inde system for rsk assessment of shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals(o Rsk from ther specal propertes Management rsk of producers 2 Rsk of stakeholders n shppng 3 Rsk of natural envronment 4 Rsk of socal envronment 5 Igntablty Eplosveness 2 Easy dffuson 3 Logstcs safety management system 2 Human resources of logstcs management 22 Storage securty control 23 Loadng securty control 24 Emergency programs and equpment 25 Securty management organzaton of logstcs enterprses 3 Securty management system of logstcs enterprses 32 Transportaton management system of logstcs enterprses 33 Operaton confguraton of logstcs enterprses 34 Shp performance of logstcs enterprses 35 Qualfcaton of employees n logstcs enterprses 36 Emergence programs and equpment of logstcs enterprses 37 Rsk from navgaton waters 4 Rsk from hydrologcal condtons 42 Rsk from geologcal condtons 43 Rsk from topographcal condtons 44 Rsk from clmate condtons 45 Rsk from laws and regulatons 5 Rsk from supervson and nvestgaton of government 52 Rsk from technologcal envronment 53 Rsk from general publc s atttude Analyss on Scope of Applcaton of Matter-element and GAHP model The nde system of rsk assessment tself s a relatvely complcated one and entals fve maor aspects: management rsk of producers of dangerous chemcals rsks from the specal propertes of the dangerous chemcals rsks of stakeholders n shppng of dangerous chemcals rsks from natural envronment and rsk from socal envronment. And specfcally there are altogether 24 ndees for rsk assessment [6]. Values of a maorty of the ndees however are obtaned through a comprehensve analyss on a subectve bass rather than drectly reflected by specfc numerals. An assessment model able to deal wth complcated ssues and analyze both qualtatve and quanttatve ndees s preferred. It s on the bass of requrements and specfc characterstcs of shppng of dangerous chemcals. Wth a hstory gong back to the 980s Matter Element Analyss s an emergng nterdscplnary subect of Systems Scence Cogntve Scence and mathematcs and also a cross dscplnary subect of natural scences and humantes wth a wde scope of applcaton [7]. Matter Element Analyss presents rules and methods for resolvng ssues through analyss of matter element and ts evolvement. Matter Element Analyss contrbutes to vsualze complcated obects and establsh a comprehensve evaluatng model. It uses mult-ndees and mult-parameters to present the results wth quanttatve numerals and reflect the aggregated level of the obects. GAHP s an effectve way to dentfy value weghts of ndees evolved from AHP. Tradtonal AHP s lmted to sngle person decson makng thus problems such as a hgh degree of subectvty and a low level of accuracy are nevtable n ndentfyng value weghts [8]. Because GAHP takes mult-person decson makng nto account t ensures the accuracy of value weghts through acceptng suggestons from more people. The Matter Element Model s based on etenson set. It employs Matter Element Transformng Method to alter problems ncompatble nto compatble so as to reasonably descrbe the relatonshp of the nternal structures of natural and socal phenomena and the varyng curves. The value weghts of the ndees are calculated usng GAHP for the purpose of comprehensve evaluaton and sequencng whch s n complance wth the obectve and requrement of the rsk assessment on shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals. It s thus feasble to ntroduce Matter Element-GAHP method nto the research. 3.2 Constructng a model based on Matter Element-GHAP model for the rsk assessment The procedures for establshng a model based on Matter Element-GHAP model for the rsk assessment are as follows. Step : Establshng an nde system for the rsk assessment The nde system can be referred n Table. 364

4 LIU Bo et al J. Chem. Pharm. Res (: Step 2: Identfyng value weghts of and U s n the nde system Identfyng value weghts of the ndees n the system s conducted based on GAHP. The eperts selected are frst requred to dentfy the value weghts employng the data usng AHP and then the ultmate result of the value weghts s obtaned through calculatng the arthmetc average of the value weghts offered by each epert. In the process for determnng the value weghts n the nde system t s presumed that the weght assgnment of Frst-class nde s Smlarly the Second-class nde A ( a a... a = wth a( =2 5and the weght vector 2 5 a 0 and 5 a =. s s a s ( = 2 5 ; s =2 n the weght vector = A = ( a a... a wth a 0 and 2 n s n as =. s= Step 3: Identfyng classcal doman and secton doman The rsk on shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals s rated nto fve grades entalng qute hgh farly hgh moderate farly low and qute low. The ndees for assessment are thus dvded nto fve grades correspondngly wth the frst ndcatng qute low the second farly low the thrd moderate the fourth farly hgh and the ffth qute hgh. Under the nde representng the rsk from the specal propertes of dangerous chemcals the classcal doman G rade 0-20 R0 = Grade Grade = R0 = Rp = of each grade s presented as R 0 2 And the secton doman chemcals]. Frst class second class thrd class fourth class ffth class 2Grade R0 = Grade R0 = wth R p=[ the rsk from the specal propertes of dangerous The classcal doman and secton doman of varous grades under dfferent ndees can be ganed by the analogy. STEP4: Identfyng Matter Element for assessment The eperts nvted by producers of dangerous chemcals rated the rsks estng n shppng accordng to the above nde system and assessng crtera. And the value u s obtaned through takng an average of the values n dentfed by the eperts. The number of Matter Element to be assessed s 6 n the nde system. It s presumed that the obect to be assessed s P (m=0 5 and the results after calculatons are presented as R to be referred m to as Matter Element to be assessed. Then the Matter Elements to be assessed n the research are as follows. m. 365

5 LIU Bo et al J. Chem. Pharm. Res (: p0 2 2 R0 = p R4 = p R = R p = p R2 = p R3 = Among them R 0 the Matter Element for rsk assessment on shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals; R the Matter Element for assessment on rsks from the specal propertes of dangerous chemcals; R 2 the Matter Element for assessment on management rsks of producers of dangerous chemcals; R 3 the Matter Element for assessment on rsks of stakeholders n shppng; R 4 the Matter Element for assessment on rsks from natural envronment; R 5 the Matter Element for assessment on rsks from socal envronment. (= 2 5 the weghted value of ndees n the crtera. Step 6: Identfyng correlaton between ndees of the Matter Element to be assessed on varous grades It s presumed K ( ρ( 0 当 ( ρ p- ρ( 0 0时 = ( ρ p ρ( 0 -ρ( - 当 ( ρ - ρ( = 0时 0 p 0 ρ( 0 ( a0 + b0 ( b0 a0 2 2 ( = and In the above formulas ρ 0 represents the dstance between to 0 between to the secton. Step 7: Calculatng correlaton of If the weght coeffcent of p s P m on varous grades a and n = n whch ρ( p ( ap + bp ( bp ap 2 2 and ( =. a = then K ( p ak ( ρ the dstance n = n whch K ( p = represents the combnaton value of correlaton on varous grades of the ndees wth regard to the value weghts of the ndees. The formula s not only a model for calculatng correlaton of n varous sectons of the obect to be assessed but also a model for calculatng correlaton Step 8: Ratng Gven ( K p = ma K ( p 0 (2... m P m s rated 0. of the obect as a whole. CONCLUSION A rsk assessment model for shppng logstcs of dangerous chemcals s establshed. It s based on Matter Element p 366

6 LIU Bo et al J. Chem. Pharm. Res (: Approach and GAHP for the purpose of makng an overall and comprehensve assessment on shppng of dangerous chemcals. Meanwhle the model contrbutes to reflect the rsks by numerals n fve aspects ncludng management rsk of producers of dangerous chemcals rsk from the specal propertes of the dangerous chemcals rsk of stakeholders n shppng of dangerous chemcals rsk from natural envronment and rsk from socal envronment. So that t s benefcal for producers of dangerous chemcals to understand systematcally the rsks durng shppng of such artcles. It s also useful to make correspondng strateges targetng to those rsks to ensure smooth operaton and development of the shppng of dangerous chemcals. Acknowledgement Ths work s supported by: Postgraduate research and nnovaton proects of Jangsu Provnce (CZZ2_0262: Research on the resettlement organzng nterface coordnaton management of water conservancy and hydropower proect. REFERENCES [] Hassan Lone Irshad; Kumar Aay; Khan Fatma; Saena Shrparna; Iqbal Dar Arshed Journal of Chemcal and Pharmaceutcal Research 202 4( [2] u Fengqn; Shen Ja Logstcs Technology 2007 ( [3] Yu Zhua; Shena Logstcs Technology 2008 ( [4] Lu Lme; Gao Yongchao; Wang Yongchun Journal of Chemcal and Pharmaceutcal Research 203 5( [5] Han Yupng; Ran Benqng; e Jancang; Huang Mngcong Journal of Chna Agrcultural Unversty 2003 ( [6] Mazumdar Harayot; Das Rctka; Hazarka Dbya Jyot; Choudhury Indran; Ahmed Hasanul Islam Journal of Chemcal and Pharmaceutcal Research 202 4( [7] Zhang La; Sh Guoqng Comprehensve Assessment on Matter Element Model of Urbanzaton n Jangsu Provnc. Journal of Huaqao Unversty (Natural Scences Edton 2005 ( [8] Lu Yuann; Zhuang Yan; Zhao ng Journal of Chemcal and Pharmaceutcal Research 203 5(