Research on Network Security Prediction Method Based on Kalman Filtering Fusion Decision Entropy Theory

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1 Vol.39 (SecTech 206) pp Research on Networ Securty Predcton Method Based on Kalan Flterng Fuson Decson Entropy Theory Lang Huang Xnhao Chen and Xnsheng La School of Matheatcs & Coputer Scence Shangrao Noral Unversty Shangrao 33400Jangx Chna {Lang. Huang} Abstract. In ths paper based on the Kalan flterng odel a new ethod of networ securty predcton s presented whch s based on the theory of decson entropy. In ths ethod the Kalan state equaton and easureent equaton are constructed accordng to the ey attrbutes of the networ securty state and then cobned wth the decson entropy theory to predct the future state of networ securty. The experental results show that the proposed ethod has hgh predcton accuracy and s sutable for the state predcton of networ securty. Keywords: networ securty decson entropy Kalan flterng attac strength Introducton Wth the rapd developent of the coputer people's daly lfe has been nseparable wth the networ. The coputer networ has penetrated nto all areas of people's lves ncludng scentfc research educaton governent natonal defense and other felds []. In today's socety s about to enter the era of cloud coputng the nfluence of coputer networ on socety wll be ore and ore bg. Wth extensve dstrbuton networ syste networ syste structure s becong ore and ore coplex the networ s facng ore and ore attacs and threats faced by the networ s becong ore and ore serous varous networ securty ncdents and vulnerabltes becoes ore and ore frequent ncludng hacer attacs vrus [2-3]. Ths not only daages the nterests of ndvduals and enterprses resultng n the loss of people's property but also reduces the people's trust n the networ. Ensurng networ nforaton securty has becoe one of the portant content of natonal nforaton strategy [4]. For all nds of networ securty ssues the tradtonal networ securty technology anly has Vulnerablty Detecton Technology Frewall Technology Intruson Detecton Technology [5]. Vulnerablty Detecton Technology has proved the level of networ securty n a certan extent but can only detect a certan networ vulnerablty the ltaton s great unable to detect the whole ISSN: ASTL Copyrght 206 SERSC

2 Vol.39 (SecTech 206) networ so the vulnerablty detecton technology plays a lted role n provng networ securty [6]. Frewall between the nternal and external networ bult a hgh wall ncreases the degree of securty of Intranet Networ. However the role of frewall n networ securty s lted. Frst of all there s no wall can bloc bypass attacs there are any ntruson technques to bypass the frewall; Secondly the frewall s a defense technology bult between the nternal and external networ can effectvely detect the transsson of data pacets between the nternal and external networs but the networ attacs are helpless [8]. Therefore the role of frewall to networ securty s lted. The developent of Intruson Detecton Technology s although relatvely ature due to the ntruson detecton equpent of alar nforaton s assve and the presence of false negatves false postves and so t could not reflect the true state of the networ [9]. Under the gudance of the odel cobnaton forecastng ethod ths paper cobnes the Kalan Flterng Method and the Gray Decson Entropy Theory and presents a new ethod for the predcton of networ securty stuaton. 2 The Networ Securty Predcton Model Classc predcton algorth based on artfcal une networ securty stuaton assessent algorth to get the value of networ securty stuaton to provde the bass for predcton. Because predcton algorths are generally cobned wth the nfluence factors of networ securty stuaton t s the ey to fnd and collect ore factors that affect the securty stuaton of networ. Therefore the lowest level odule n the predcton fraewor s a data collecton odule ths odule s responsble for collected by pheroone. Because there are any factors that affect the networ securty stuaton n order to wegh the predcton accuracy and effcency ths paper uses the gray correlaton analyss ethod to select the ey factors whch are related to the securty stuaton. 3 Proposed Networ Securty Predcton Algorths 3. The New Inforaton Estaton for Networ Securty Stuaton Accordng to the defnton of new nforaton theory the new nforaton process of a process s not related to the orgnal process but t s a new nforaton process wth Hlbert space. M ( represents the new nforaton at te the new nforaton process of networ securty stuaton z ( s defned as follows: M ( z( z( 2 () 322 Copyrght 206 SERSC

3 Vol.39 (SecTech 206) z ( s estated by the least square ethod that s the estated value of networ securty stuaton z( propertes: Frst new nforaton of te z(3) before te process vector observaton data process vector M () M () M (2) z() M (2). The new nforaton ethod has the followng and all the observed data z() z(2) respectvely orthogonal. Second new nforaton M (3) z(2) M (3) M ( z(3) M ( orthogonal to each other. Thrd z( and the new nforaton are correspondng one by one. Fro the nature of the new nforaton t s concluded that the physcal eanng s the nforaton of the te s ndependent of all the observed data z() z(2) M ( z(3) z( before te that s the new nforaton process s a stochastc process whch s not related to the orgnal process and has the characterstcs of whte nose. But t can provde the new nforaton about whch can correct the least squares estator. z( 3.2 Decson Entropy Fuson Kalan Flterng Networ Securty Stuaton Predcton Algorth The followng s Kalan predcton algorth based on decson entropy cobned wth factors odelng the specfc steps are as follows: Step one let z ( s the networ securty stuaton value of te z ( ) s the networ securty stuaton value of the next te perod after te ( ) are the selected ey factors accordng to the grey entropy y y ( correlaton degree ) s the value of factor value of factor for a perod of te after te between the ey factors and the stuaton s as follows: at te z( ) b00z( b0y( b0 y ( 0 y( ) b0z( by( b y ( y ( ) b0 z( b y( by( y ( ) s the. The regresson equaton Here paraeter b 00 b 0 b and 0 are all the regresson coeffcents and can be obtaned by the least square ethod. (2) Copyrght 206 SERSC 323

4 Vol.39 (SecTech 206) 0 b00 b0 b b 0 b 0 T T b z(2) z(3) T z( n) y (2) y (3) y ( n) y y y (2) (3) ( n) (3) Here T z() z(2) z( n ) y () y (2) y ( n ) Step two accordng to the forula (2) to establsh the Kalan flterng process equaton and the observaton equaton as follows: Y ( ) G( Y( U( z( ) B( Y( ) U 2( (4) 4 Experental Results and Analyss Accordng to the coputer artfcal une ethod to calculate the networ securty stuaton. Accordng to the relatonshp between the changes of antbody concentraton n the huan une syste and the pathogen nvason ntensty the networ securty stuaton s calculated by the antbody concentraton. The ethod can obtan accurate networ securty stuaton value. When soe attacs contnued to attac the networ the correspondng antbody concentraton wll ncrease contnuously; when the attac strength decreased then the concentraton of antbody decreased but the rate of declne s less than the rate of the attac strength; when soe nd of attac occurs agan n a certan perod of te the correspondng antbody concentraton s stll hgher t shows that the networ securty stuaton s hgher the networ anageent should prepare for the defense. Accordng to the concentraton of antbody we can calculate the value of networ securty stuaton. Set s the nuber of antbodes detected on the host of antbodes that can be detected n class class j attacs j attacs on the host ndcates the portance of the host j j s the nuber s the rs of y s the nuber of antbodes detected by host under noral networ condtons. Calculated rs values n the followng three cases: After processng the networ securty stuaton the nfluencng factors of attac strength networ flow and varable rate of networ flux are as shown n table. 324 Copyrght 206 SERSC

5 Vol.39 (SecTech 206) Table. Calculaton of networ securty stuaton Atuaton value Attac strength Networ flow Varable rate of networ flux Group Group Group Group Group Group Group Group Group Group Group Group Group Group Part of experental data of the networ securty stuaton the nfluence factors of attac strength networ traffc and flow rate are lsted n Table. The frst 0 groups of data are respectvely carred out grey correlaton entropy analyss. The results of the entropy analyss of the frst 0 groups of data wth the networ securty stuaton value as the reference sequence the analyss results are shown n table 2: Table 2. Decson entropy analyss of the frst 0 groups of data Attac strength Networ flow Decson entropy Maxu entropy of nforaton dfference Decson entropy correlaton Varable rate of networ flux Copyrght 206 SERSC 325

6 Vol.39 (SecTech 206) degree Accordng to the decson entropy judgent crteron the relatonshp between the ntensty of attac and the stuaton s the bggest. 5 Conclusons A Kalan flterng predcton algorth based on decson entropy theory s proposed for the predcton of networ securty stuaton. The wor of ths paper lays a foundaton for the better control of the networ securty. Acnowledgeents. Ths paper s supported by the Natonal Natural Scence Foundaton of Chna (No ) and the Natural Scence Foundaton of Jangx Provnce (No. 205BAB207020). References. Musab G. Lar L. Tare M.: Securng data exchange n wreless ulteda sensor networs: perspectves and challenges[j]. Multeda Tools and Applcatons 75(6): (206) 2. Ln G. Xnsheng J. Tao J.: Herarchcal stuaton evaluaton odel for networ nforaton content securty ncdents[j]. Journal of Jln Unversty 46(2): (206) 3. K D. Kang S. An S.: Secure and effcent te synchronzaton for border survellance wreless sensor networs[j]. IEICE Transactons on Fundaentals of Electroncs Councatons and Coputer Scences : (206) 4. Sth B. Caruthers W. Stewart D.: Networ odelng for securty analytcs[c]. Proceedngs of the th Annual Cyber and Inforaton Securty Research Conference (206) 5. Massonet P. Levn A. Celest A.: Securty requreents n a federated cloud networng archtecture[j]. Councatons n Coputer and Inforaton Scence 567: (206) 6. Dang P.D. Pttayachawan S. Bruno V.: Explorng behavoral nforaton securty networs n an organzatonal context: an eprcal case study[j]. Journal of Inforaton Securty and Applcatons (206). 7. Ven Q.T. Le T.A. Nguyen H.X.: A secure networ codng based odfy-and-forward schee for cooperatve wreless relay networs[c]. IEEE Vehcular Technology Conference (206). 8. Tellez M. EI T.S. Heydar H.M.: Iprovng the securty of wreless sensor networs n an lot envronental ontorng syste[c]. IEEE Systes and Inforaton Engneerng Desgn Syposu (206) 9. Lu C.: Actvely boostng networ securty wth passve DNS[J]. Networ Securty 5: (206) 326 Copyrght 206 SERSC