HCI. What does the future hold for the human experience? G R E G O R Y D. A B O W D

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1 HCI What does the future hold for the human experience? G R E G O R Y D. A B O W D R E G E N T S A N D D I S T I N G U I S H E D P R O F E S S O R S C H O O L O F I N T E R A C T I V E C O M P U T I N G G E O R G I A I N S T I T U T E O F T E C H N O L O G Y a b o w g a t e c h. e d u

2 Outline Generations of the human-computing experience Defining the next/current generation Notes: This is a technology talk, but not very technical. The ideas I present are meant to provoke thought and discussion, either now or later. Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

3 The Generations of Computing A S O M E W H A T S I M P L I F I E D W A Y T O F R A M E T H E H I S T O R Y O F S H I F T S I N C O M P U T I N G T E C H N O L O G Y N E W C O M P U T I N G T E C H N O L O G I E S A R R I V E, C R E A T I N G A N E W P E R C E P T I O N O F T H E H U M A N - C O M P U T E R R E L A T I O N S H I P Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

4 Framing Generations Generation Vision began People to Device ratio Canonical technology Killer app Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

5 Generation 1: Batch Processing Impersonal computing Generation Vision began People to Device ratio Canonical technology Killer app 1 Late 40 s Many 1 Mainframe Scientific calculation Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

6 Generation 2: The PC revolution Generation Vision began Personal computing People to Device ratio Canonical technology Killer app 2 Late 60 s 1 1 PC Spreadsheet Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

7 Generation 3: Ubiquitous computing Blurring the distinction between physical and digital worlds Generation Vision began People to Device ratio Canonical technology 3 Late 80 s 1 Many Inch/foot/yar d scales Killer app Human-human communication Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

8 Some unfinished business Completing the circle of device scale Programming environments Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

9 Beyond inch/foot/yard: Internet of things foot inch yard nano building world Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

10 Programming Environments Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

11 Defining the 4 th Generation S O M E W H A T U N S U R P R I S I N G L Y, I T I S A L R E A D Y H E R E ( A T L E A S T I N M Y O P I N I O N ) Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

12 Generation 4: What is it? Generation Vision began People to Device ratio Canonical technology Killer app 1 Late 40 s Many 1 Mainframe Scientific calculation 2 Late 60 s 1 1 PC Spreadsheet 3 Late 80 s 1 Many Inch/foot/yar d 4???????? Human-human communication Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

13 Generation 4: When will it start? It s already started! Generation Vision began People to Device ratio Canonical technology Killer app 1 Late 40 s Many 1 Mainframe Scientific calculation 2 Late 60 s 1 1 PC Spreadsheet 3 Late 80 s 1 Many Inch/foot/yar d 4 Late 00 s?????? Human-human communication Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

14 Generation 4: Lots of People and Devices Generation Vision began People to Device ratio Canonical technology Killer app 1 Late 40 s Many 1 Mainframe Scientific calculation 2 Late 60 s 1 1 PC Spreadsheet 3 Late 80 s 1 Many Inch/foot/yar d 4 Late 00 s Many Many Human-human communication Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

15 4 th Generation Technologies The cloud Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

16 4 th Generation Technologies The crowd Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

17 4 th Generation Technologies The shroud Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

18 Generation 4: Canonical technology The importance of being memorable. Generation Vision began People to Device ratio Canonical technology Killer app 1 Late 40 s Many 1 Mainframe Scientific calculation 2 Late 60 s 1 1 PC Spreadsheet 3 Late 80 s 1 Many Inch/foot/ yard 4 Late 00 s Many Many Cloud/Crowd /Shroud Human-human communication Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

19 Generation 4: Branding Complementary Computing Mission Combining the computing and human experience in such a way as to enhance the qualities of each other. Tagline Blurring the distinction between humans and computing Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

20 Generation 4: How will it take hold? Generation Timeframe People to Device ratio Canonical device Killer app 1 Late 40 s Many 1 Mainframe Scientific calculation 2 Late 60 s 1 1 PC Spreadsheet 3 Late 80 s 1 Many Inch/foot/yar d 4 Late 00 s Many Many Cloud/Crowd /Shroud Human-human communication?? Why does this matter? Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

21 A current example: Navigation Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

22 Generation 4: How will it take hold? Generation Timeframe People to Device ratio Canonical device Killer app 1 Late 40 s Many 1 Mainframe Scientific calculation 2 Late 60 s 1 1 PC Spreadsheet 3 Late 80 s 1 Many Inch/foot/yar d 4 Late 00 s Many Many Cloud/Crowd /Shroud Human-human communication The self-sufficient genius Jack of all trades, master of none! BAH!!! Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

23 Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing Another example health (Bold) predictions In < 5 years, the majority of clinically relevant data will be collected outside of clinical settings. Health will be more consumer driven and you will get real, actionable advice from more than your network of health professionals. Health research will be more n of 1 versus RCT. With Comp 2, we become our own doctors. Or so we will think.

24 Other possibilities Education 1 billion teachers for every student! Sustainability Where did everything come from, where does it go from me? Which of these will take hold? Has navigation/entertainment already done so? This meeting is an attempt to unify to address a problem that more than IEEE cares about. Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

25 Hey, it s complementary! What is a killer app that has humans helping computing? Ultra reliability Solving uncomputable problems? Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

26 Ooops, it s already happening! Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

27 Generation 4: It s taken hold Generation Timeframe People to Device ratio Canonical device Killer app 1 Late 40 s Many 1 Mainframe Scientific calculation 2 Late 60 s 1 1 PC Spreadsheet 3 Late 80 s 1 Many Inch/foot/ya rd 4 Late 00 s Many Many Cloud/Crow d/shroud Human-human communication The self-sufficient genius OR The symbiotic corporation Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

28 Additional research challenges Weiser, 1993 Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

29 Some research challenges for Complementary Computing Cloud: Networking & distributed computing programming/se Security/Privacy Crowd: Programming Languages/SE: hardware-human parallelization Theory: What does computability mean in this blurred world? General research: Rethinking peer review Shroud: HCI: How to provide aggregative user experience Power & heat Security/Privacy I am sure you have more and better challenges. Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing

30 Discussions going forward My vision is rather shortsighted. 1. What are your visions of applications of the future? 2. What are the technology bottlenecks for those new visions and the potential solutions? 3. I described a new computing model that is a blurring of human and hardware. What other models do you think are most promising? Gregory D. Abowd, IEEE Rebooting Computing