An Investigation on Effective Factors on Share of Agricultural Sector in GDP of Iranian Economy

Transcription

1 Ierol Reserch Jourl of ppled d Bsc Sceces 03 vlble ole ISS 5-838X / Vol, 7 (3): Scece xplorer Publcos Ivesgo o ffecve Fcors o Shre of grculurl Secor GDP of Ir coomy Sed khodbkhshzdeh*,morez spr. MSc coomcs Sceces, Mgeme Reserch Ceer, Hormozg Uversy Of Medcl Sceces, Bdr bbs, Ir. MSc grculurl coomcs, Uversy of Ss d Bluches Correspodg uhor: Sed khodbkhshzdeh BSTRCT: Ths reserch lyzes how produco m fcors d relve prces ffec grculurl secor shre gross domesc produco. Suborde feures of gross domesc produco, bsed o Dx d orm s hercl models were used ulzg me seres d durg for deermg effecve fcors o grculurl secor shre GDP. VCM mehod ws used for ssessg equos d exmg log-erm relo bewee vrbles. M resuls of reserch mply he presece of posve effec of prce of grculurl producs o grculurl secor shre GDP log me. The resuls show he mporce of relve prces, becuse, crese he prces of grculurl producs leds o mproveme of exchge relo he fvor of grculure d cuses frmers come fmles. The goverme should eforce he polces of frmer suppor gs decrese of her come. ddolly, of oher resuls of he reserch, verse relo bewee socks ech work force ues d grculure shre GDP c be meoed, becuse, echologcl chge ffecs grculurl secor. Ths resul s cosse wh heorem. Becuse dom echology grculurl secor of Ir hs bee effecve o someexe. Ths my be due o low power, sock cpl vrble effec o grculurl secor shre. Keywords: grculure shre of GDP- Relve prces- grculure- VCM model ITRODUCTIO coomc developme lerure bou he mporce d role of grculure ecoomc developme hs bee lked bou much. he begg of ecoomc developme, grculure s ssoced wh decrese he shre of grculure GDP, he grculurl secor s he lrges secor he ecoomy of developg coures d my be preseed vrous wys such s, cpl, rw merls d chep food supply, mrke for goods mufcured he dusrl secor d provdg foreg exchge o corbue o ecoomc developme (f, 00). There re wo perspecves o he evoluo of ecoomc developme. The rdol vew of developme ecoomss of he 950s d 960s, he growh of grculure, dusry d power dusry sss. I he course of grculure, ecoomy d dusry o he pssve d cve prs of he ecoomy. The secod pproch ws bsed o he heory of Johso d. I ws cler h he role of grculure developme s o oly egve bu lso fve of ecoomc resrucurg developg coures s mpor corbuo grculure c, cpl, foreg exchge d food dusry secors d provde mrke for he producs domesc dusrl creed ( Kerm &Hosey, 003). Idusrl developme mos developed coures, dcg he fc h he grculurl secor, he developme of echology hs secor d s reled dusres frs sep he dusrlzo process of he coury. The dom corbuo o he ecoomc developme of he grculurl secor over he dusrl d servces secors hve bee reduced, d hereforehe relve corbuo of grculure ore (Korkezhd &f, 008). Hsorcl evdece shows h grculurl growh my cses s o ecourge d promoe ecoomc growh. Ths posve reloshp o oly urope d orh merc he erly sges of dusrl developme s d frc coures s hey fd, bu s lso foud Tw d Id.yers. I he sme perod, of he 7 coures wh GDP growh below 3 per ce growh grculure ws oly oe perce or less. To recogze he corbuo of grculure o ecoomc growh, s mpor o kow why he rso process grculure, he shre of grculurl GDP o ol GDP hs decled. Perspecve o he growh of grculurl produco s smuled by growh demd for producs. Sce experece shows h he come elscy for grculurl producs s less h uy, he growh demd for grculurl producs s less h reveue growh (Hosey, 005). Log-erm ecoomc growh s geerlly ssoced wh

2 Il. Res. J. ppl. Bsc. Sc. Vol., 7 (3), , 03 chges he corbuos of ecoomc produco. My reserchers he process of ecoomc growh d drmc rso from grculure o oher secors of he ecoomy hve poed ou (derso, 987). Lews's (953) heory of ecoomc developme o surplus dul- secor model of ecoomc growh hrough he rsfer of relvely from rdol grculure o moder cpls secor would be esfed d expded. ccordg o Lews, he work doe rdol grculure ulmed supply " mes h o reduco grculurl produco, would be se sde (he fl produc s close o zero). Lous, grculure h dusry ws less effecve, log-erm ecoomc oulook s cosse wh he belef h Smh d Rcrdo beg (Mr d Mr, 00). yrvykr rso from rdol grculure o dusry d servces secors does o me h grculurl growh. Mr d Mr smple of 50 coures wh dffere come levels bewee 967 d 99 foud h producvy growh grculure h dusry hs bee fser. However, oed h he process of echcl chge grculure mes h he shre of grculure ol oupu decled (Lg Su, 00). derso (987 ), he resos for he decle he shre of grculure developg ecoomes surveyed. He oed h he decle he shre of grculure GDP for he ecoomy of resrced d smll, he chge echology d he expso of cpl smuleously led o cresed ecoomc effcecy o-grculure (dusry) d come wll cuse cresed reveue lw prses, 's corbuo less of come s spe o food c be sd o hve chged he erms of rde gs grculure 's shre of GDP, d he relve mers decreses (derso,987h). mog he sudes h hve bee doe he feld of he sudy of he Shg (008) s he relve decle he shre of grculure Ch " med. Shg red o fluece hree m fcors: ) prce b) Iveory chges of fcors of produco c) echologcl chge o he relve decle of grculure s shre of Ch's GDP expl. I hs sudy, usg he heorecl model proposed by come d orm (980 ), usg OLS o esme ecoomerc models of pyme. The resuls showed h oly relve prces re sgfc d hve posve effec o he shre of grculure Ch. Icrese he relve prce of grculure o crese he shre of grculure GDP s Ch. Su d collegues (007) sudy eled ccoug reduce grculure s corbuo o ecoomc growh Tw " o exme he fluece of relve prces, veory, produco fcors d echology chge o grculure 's shre of GDP pd. Usg he properes of her GDP o he bss of heorecl models d orm (980) were used. The resuls of he lyss of he resos for he chges Tw's ecoomy s well l. Resuls showed h relve prces, bu lle posve mpc o he shre of grculure GDP he log erm d shor erm. Puysvesv d Kuhd (00), sudy eled " Reducg grculure developg coures: cse sudy of Thld " he grculurl prcg polces mpc, physcl cpl d hum cpl he grculurl secor's shre of GDP corbued o hs rcle log-ru srucurl reloshp bewee he shre of he grculurl secor d s deerms defed. The resuls showed h prcg polces re effecve s grculurl xes, ply prome role he erly developme sges d ler sges re offse. The ccumulo of physcl d hum cpl re mpor. gel s lw d echologcl chges, mog oher secors hs relvely lle effec. Mr d Wre (993), sudy eled " The relve decle he shre of grculure Idoes, lyss of supply-sde " fcors ffecg he shre of grculure GDP beg. They show how hs flueces he fesbly of usg dul mehods d rslog fuco form s lso wdely used grculure, mcroecoomc lyss. Resuls showed h relve prces re of gre mporce he Idoes ecoomy d echologcl chge c be effecve reducg he shre of he grculurl secor. Gk d ygrse (983), o evlue he corbuo of he grculurl secor developg coures, ecoomc growh, Kuzes formul by dvdg he come group of developg coures o hree cegores: low, medum, hgh d of sscs foud h: - he shre of grculure GDP growh d reduco he fl sges of developme s smll. - ro of ogrculurl GDP grculurl secor d chges he relve degree of ecoomc developme of developg coures s lrger. 3 - o-grculurl secor growh re hgher h he growh re of he grculurl secor. Smd (000), reserch eled "The corbuo of grculure o GDP dd. Hs per of Kuzes (964) d proposed les Gk d ygrse yers, usg d from 996 o 965 o sudy he corbuo of hs secor he developme process of he coury d oher OPC coures py. The resuls of hs sudy dce he mpor role of grculure ecoomc developme processes OPC coures, especlly Ir. Fh (994) usg he formul provded by Kuzes d use of sscl formo used he yers 96 o 99 o exme he role of grculure ecoomc developme Ir pymes. The resuls showed h: he shre of grculure hs perod cresed d he shre of o-grculurl secor hs decled. grculurl secor growh of o-grculurl secor growh s lrger. o- grculurl secor s lower h he egve. Removg he ol secor of he ecoomy, he shre of grculure ol vlue dded he se of he ecoomy s cresgly cosdered o be reducg. Removg ol d servce secors of he ecoomy, he shre of grculure vlue dded cresed. Sbbgh Kerm, H. (005), sudy led " ffecs of growh he ecoomy " o lyze how chges relve prces of fcors of produco d he growh of vlue dded secors of he ecoomy d he erreloshps bewee he evelope chrcerscs of he gross 035

3 Il. Res. J. ppl. Bsc. Sc. Vol., 7 (3), , 03 domesc defco of fcors ffecg growh d developme of grculure, dusry d mg servces hey used. Resuls showed h cresg he oupu d effcecy of produco fcors, he prmry fcors of produco wll deped o how well he pplco. Prmeer esmo resuls d elscy s of supply d producvy vrous secors h bewee grculure d oher secors of he ecoomy he use of produco fcors hve srog es here. Gve he bove, cludg he fcors h fluece he ecoomc secors GDP growh, he prces of mufcured goods d vesme ecoomc secors. Due o lmed producve resources d ulmed ws of hum socey whou prces s oe of he effecve ools o lloce resources o vrous ecoomc cves. Chges he prces of mufcured goods secors he cpl mobly bewee dffere secors of he ecoomy. So mos of s pr of he erms of rde s fvor d o rc cpl (Kork ezd &f, 009). Fds. The prce dex for dusrl d servces secors h he grculurl prce dex durg hs perod eded o hve cresed o greer exe (Hosse, 005). Ths sudy uses ul d for he perod 340 o 386 d he ecoomy usg ecoomerc echques, vecor error correco model VCM, your log erm reloshp or reloshps bewee vrbles he model were esmed. lso how relve prces, blce of produco d echcl chge he shre of grculure GDP ws lyzed. MTHODS ul d o he grculurl secor s shre of ol ccous for he perod 340 o 390 colleced by he Cerl Bk of Ir (les d vlble) ws. The m fcors of produco such s ld d (R), (L) d cpl (K ), respecvely, from he FO webse, he webse ws obed from he Sscl Ceer of Ir 's Cerl Bk webse.he gross pr s bsed o heorecl models d orm (980) were used. Geerl form of hese models re he frs wo prs of grculurl produco () d o () d hree pus () erms of where he J =, d vecors pus clude cer pus J d kg pr geerl fcors such s he ecoomy s. Woodld (98 ), he gross domesc (GDP) ws defed s he overll ecoomy. G( P, P, V, V, V, ) Mx x{ P. Y ( V, V, ) P. Y ( V, V, )} X {( V, V, V, V ) : V V, V V, V V V } P. Y ( V, V, ) P. Y ( V, V, ) : V V, V V, V V,, } Mx{ G( P, P, V, V, V, ) g ( P, V *, V, ) g ( P, V *, V, The fuco reurs poro of GDP, whch uder cer rules d codos, defes echologes (Dyour, 974). Ths produco fuco s homogeeous of degree oe ll prces d veory fcors ( * V V ) d hs he sme chrcerscs fuco of he ol GDP of he ecoomy. Fuco d s specfc *, fucol form (rslog fuco) shres by oprmerc lyss of vrous fcors (prce, veory of pus d producvy of fcors of produco) s he produco of (Kohl, 994). The blce of cer echology for opml resource lloco bewee grculure d o-grculurl ecoomy bes poso depeds o he relve prces of producs re possbles froer. Impc o mxmze profs, compeve equlbrum c be see s soluo o he problem of mxmzg reveue suscepble o echology, veory d erl fcors vecor ech sep of deermg prces of cer producs. ssumg h T () s he probbly fuco of he me s deermed o be publc fgure GDP fuco wh respec o he me vrble, he GDP showed s follows (Kohl, ; Woodld, 977). ) Y GDP ( P, X, ) mx { P. y : ( y, X ) T ( )} y Vecoryso h he fl goods,.e. grculurl produco () d he o-grculurl producs()we show. Pvecor of prces of fl goods d o-grculurl producs s, X s vecor of supply fcors of produco, cludg (L),cpl(K) d resources(r)s, T () of covex se, d (me) s useds proxy for echcl chge. Becuse of cos reurs o scle produco fucos re fucos of GDP c bese gs come from fcors of produco. ^ Y GDP( p = p, p * *. y p. y, L, K) 036

4 Il. Res. J. ppl. Bsc. Sc. Vol., 7 (3), , 03 = w. L r. K = W ( p, p ) L R( p, p K ) Trslog produco fuco ws used o demosre he GDP. Tr slog fuco provdes ll he feures of he eoclsscl produco fuco. Tr slog produco fuco shows hree res where he mrgl producs olveor egve(dyyvr, 974). These forms reflec possble dffereces erms of produco d mgeme re lso beer. Trs log fuco for model of he geerl form of hs fuco, he followg prmeers re flexble, re used. L( Y) L( x ) ( Lx ) ( Lx )( Lx I he bove equo, X represes fcor of produco, α d β prmeers of he model d he dex s dffere fcors of produco. I s derved s follows. L( Y ) Y ( ( Lx ) ( Lx ))( ) L( x ) x Gve he rslog fucol form whou he subscrp, he GDPs s follows: lg 0 l P l P l X h l P,Commody prces d X h l P l P h l X l X ) k k l X l X ques of produco fcors d represe me. Followg resrcos for he properes o ssfy he eoclsscl produco heory, he prmeers of he model were cosdered. h k k,,, 0 h 0, 0 h,, h k k Due o helmosdcodosecessryomxmzeproduco,hefuco of he logrhm of he ro of prces of grculurl GDP, he shre of grculure GDP, ccordg o he followg reloshps were developed. LG G p p y p. Lp S S S ( )( ) y ( ) S.= p G G G h Lp l P h Lp Lp Lx h h h ( quo(5) c be rewre. S )l P l Lx l L k l K ( 0 l( P / P ) l( K / L) l( R / L) 3 l k ) l R ccordg o he equo, he shre of grculure, he chges c bedemosreds follows: S l( P P ) l( K L) l( R L) 3 For perod of dscouous chge he shre of grculure GDP, relve prce chges, chges he cpl sock, chges crege of produco d chges echology. Iclo d dreco of echologcl chge wh cos relve prces, he chge he shre s mesured. grculure's shre of k 037

5 Il. Res. J. ppl. Bsc. Sc. Vol., 7 (3), , 03 he esmed prmeers of he equo, we c ob he reloshp bewee echologcl chges s follows. LG G p x The frs compoe shows h pure echologcl chge, o cler reloshp wh producvy d relve prces of fcors of produco, d o fuco, s s cosdered pr of he cos or ercep d crese or decrese he equo rsm corbuo owrds he boom d op. Whe hs compoe s egve, dcg h he corbuo of grculure o he equo of rsfer s low, reflecg echologcl developmes. The secod compoe shows how he erply of fcors o ech oher over me. I oher words, chges echology over me, wh effec hs hd o ges. Replcg he cuse or cuses of he fcors h hs led o svgs? The hrd compoe, dcg h he cpcy of he frm's echcl developmes, wh effec hs. I s cler h echcl developmes o expd he scle of produco, hereby beefg from ecoomes resulg from cresed produco (yl K, 997). Techologcl chge my be skewed owrds he produco pus. I cse of echcl progress, mesure he dgol suos re: I b S Hvg he requred d, we esme he equo wh respec o he shre of grculure GDP usg VCM fsdsy should be ke. Possble o express log-erm reloshp bewee he vrbles he model es, " Johsso " o esme he umber of log- ru covergece vecors d he lkelhood ro es (mxmum ge vlue es d rce es) ws used o deec he umber of vecors coverge. There s covergece bewee se of ecoomc vrbles, bsed o he models provded correc. flucuo he shor ru error correco model (shor-erm mblces) vrbles o vlues s log erm reloshp. gel d Grger beleves h every log erm reloshp, shor-erm model s o cheve equlbrum esurg MC d vce vers (ufresy, 009). Boys d Sh (996), he pper showed h he CM loe c sy wheher or o here s log-ru reloshp bewee he vrbles. Ths mes h he vlue of () CM bewee zero d mus oe f he model s equl o he egve log-ru reloshp exss d f ws, would be megless f s smller h he egve oe, here s o log-ru reloshp (Teshky, 006). The coeffce of error, speed of dusme owrds log-ru equlbrum shows (uferesy, 009). RSULTS D DISCUSSIO Regressos volvg o sory vrbles, cusg regresso re flse, herefore, he vrbles he model o ssess wheher he vrbles re sory or o esed. Soryo dgose or re o sory he me seres u roo ess were used (Slk, 385). The resuls of he bove ess boh wh d whou he red Tble re gve. Qufed by comprg he es ssc d he crcl vlue sgfcce level of 5% s observed provded h he vrble shre of grculure GDP, relve prces of lbor d cpl per u of ld h, he bsolue vlue of he es ssc Dckey - Fuller geerlzed (DF) of he bsolue vlue s less h he crcl vlue. Thus, he u roo ull hypohess co be reeced bsed o he resuls of he me seres of ech vrble s o sory. fer vrbles were deermed 95% cofdece level, o exme he me-seres vrbles re egred of wh ws dscussed. For he frs cou he seres, whch were defed? Tble summrzes he es resuls Dckey - Fuller geerlzed frs order dfferece of he vrbles shows Frs-order dfferece operor. ccordg o Tble, s observed h he bsolue vlue of ll he vrbles of he bsolue vlue of DF es crcl vlues 5% sgfcce level s lrger. Thus, he u roo ull hypohess s reeced bsed o he resul of he frs order dfferece of sc vrbles d summed degree or zero I (0) hve, hece he vrbles re egred of order oe I() hve. Lke oher ecoomerc models s ssumed h he VR model, he sscl properes re error erms, o provde resoble ssumpo breks vrbles he model should be cosdered. Ths reserch herefore he mxmum mou Schwrz crer - Byes (SBC) usg opml lg ws chose for ech of he vrbles. I geerl, he bove dscussos, ws cocluded h he model vrbles I () hve d use he ecessry covergece Johsso - hs Juselus. Wh he help of hs echque d vecor error correco model c be log-erm d shor-erm reloshps o be deermed model prmeers. Deerme he opml lg legh he model VR, he frs sep log-erm covergece mehod, " Johsso " s. I order o deerme he ppropre lg VR model LR ssc d he kke crero (IC) ws used. Bsed o he crer Tble 3 repors he opml lg 3 ws seleced. Bsed o Johsso - Jusluvs o cheve he rk of co-egro vecors П 038

6 Il. Res. J. ppl. Bsc. Sc. Vol., 7 (3), , 03 mrx o be deermed. Deermed by he rk of he esmed chrcersc roos re cocered. Resuls Tble (4) d (5) shows h o he bss of hese sscs, here s oly oe vecor of log-ru covergece of he Hmbshgy Vecor Tble (6) hve bee repored. So log s he followg regresso expresso. S = / 76+ 0/ 5 LP -0/ 70 LK + 0/ 5076 LR + 0/ 0068 T - 0/ 084 DU57 (- 5/ 4) ( 0/57) (- 7/ 7) (- 6/ 95) ( 3 / 53) The egve sg for he coeffce of he cpl ro - work suggess h here s verse reloshp bewee he shres of grculure GDP. The esmed coeffce for he vrble cpl sock s egve d ssclly sgfc. There s log erm process vrble prmeers q. Ths prmeer dces he relve re of crese oupu d pus. The posve coeffce of he vrble he equo h echcl chge grculure s shre of ol grculurl oupu cresed (dex 0068 / 0) s. Techologcl chge he user's pu s. Therefore, he dom echology he grculurl secor Ir s lrgely mul, d h c cuse low power, vrble effec o he shre of he grculurl secor s cpl. Ir's vesmes grculure so h here s less eed. Ideed, he rrvl of ew echology o replce lbor he grculurl secor, whch my hve egve mpc o grculurl oupu s se. The resuls of he sudy showed compbly ssue hypohesze h he crese veory s fcor, fcor h creses produco d reduces he produco of oher goods. The pr h uses he lrger proporo h mos oher secors of he ecoomy develops. If he oupu of more ppropre seco of he segmes creses, some oher should be reduced (Woodld, 98). The mpc of he dummy vrble reduces he shre of grculure GDP sze 084 / 0 perce s. The shre of grculure GDP equo error correco model resuls Tble 7 hs bee repored. Wh 's mos mpor s he error correco model, cludg error correco coeffce, whch represes he speed of dusme owrds equlbrum he log-erm mblce s. s show Tble (7) s sgfc, he coeffce s sgfc d hs egve sg, so he coeffce of he CM s bewee zero d egve oe d sgfc, log-erm co-egro reloshp bewee vrbles, hs mehod s lso verfed. lso, gve h he coeffce of error correco (CT) s esmed o 03/0- shows per yer, 0 / 0 mblces he shre of grculure GDP durg he perod fer he dusme. So he dusme owrds equlbrum s relvely slow. Tble. Resuls of he ess Dckey-Full ergeerlzed (DF) he cse of model vrbles. Wh ercep d o red Wh ercep d ored vrble The opml umber of The opml umber of DF Crcl vlue lgs lgs DF Crcl vlue S 0 -/ 74 -/ / 884-3/ 506 L(p/p) 0 -/ 363 -/ / 3-3/ 506 L(K/L) 0 -/ 905 -/ / 44-3/ 508 L(R/L) 0 -/ 357 -/ / 433-3/ 55 Source: The resuls of he sudy, expled: Crcl vlues 5% level, d he choce of opml lgs by SIC crer Tble. Resuls of he ess Dckey-Full ergeerlzed (DF) frs dfferecg he model vrbles. Wh ercep d ored Wh ercep d ored vrble The opml umber of The opml umber of DF Crcl vlue lgs lgs DF Crcl vlue S 0-4/ 776 -/ / 86-3/ 508 L(p/p) 0-7/ 3 -/ / 4-3/ 508 L(K/L) 0-7/ 653 -/ / 58-3/ 50 L(R/L) 0-5/ 864 -/ / 8-3/ 58 Source: The resuls of he sudy, expled: Crcl vlues 5% level, d he choce of opmllgs by SIC crer lg 0 3 Tble3. Deermo of he opmllg legh he model VR. LogL LR IC HQ 34/03-6/907-6/ /3509 * 9/ 309 *-3/ 304 *-/ /4074 5/803-3/0940 -/ /656 3/839-3/ /9007 Source: reserch fdgs, expl: *selec he opmllg legh by he sdrdlr, IC, HQ 5% level Tble4. Deerme he umber of log-ermco-egro vecors (λ rce). ull hypohess s sumge rco The effec of he es ssc The crcl level of5% * = 0r r 06/ /8038 r r 5/ /876 r 3r 33/96 4/95 3r 4r 6/939 5/87 4r 5r 7/563 /579 Source: reserch fdgs, expl: *reec he ull hypo hess h here s oco-egro vecor sgfcce level of 5% 039

7 Il. Res. J. ppl. Bsc. Sc. Vol., 7 (3), , 03 Tble5. Deerme he umber of co-egro vecors bsed o he mxmumege vlue es(λ mx). ull hypohess ssumgerco The effec ofhe es ssc The crcllevel of5% * = 0r = r 54/ /330 r = r 7/7447 3/83 r = 3r 7/0303 5/83 3r = 4r 9/3695 9/3870 4r = 5r 7/563 /579 Source: reserch fdgs, expl: *reec he ull hypo hess h here s oco-egro vecor sgfcce level of 5% Vrble S(-) C LP(-) LK(-) LR(-) T DU57(-) Coeffce / / /539 0/703-0/ / /08434 Tble6. vecor vrbles Johsees. Sdrd rror - - 0/039 0/036 0/ / /0387 Source: Reserch Fdgs -ssc /4093 9/ /7790-6/9590 3/5333 Tble7. smo ofvecor error correco model. CM rror Correco D(S) D(LP/P) D(LK/L) D(LR/L) D(DU57) CM(-) -0/03 *(0/0344) 0/935 (0/30) 0/458 (/803) 0/480 (0/954) -0/774 (0/7735) ]**- 3/ 080 [ ] 3 / 0969 [ ] 0 / 3607 [ ] / 457 [ ]- / 0009 [ R-squred 0/4 0/7 0/04 0/4 0/ F-ssc 4/97 /434 0/866 4/00 0/866 kke IC -6/990 -/636 0/0890-3/5075-0/756 Schwrz SC -6/7043 -/3495 0/3757-3/08-0/4694 Source: reserch fdgs oe:*the umbers () resdrd devos ofhe coeffces.*the umbers [] re-sscs of he coeffces. COCLUSIOS D RCOMMDTIOS The esmo resuls dce h he, hve posve mpc o he shre of grculure GDP he log ru. Decle grculurl producvy by reducg he shre of grculure re reled. I ddo, he crese cpl sock per u of lbor, he shre of grculure hs lle relevce. Ths resul s cosse wh he proposo. Therefore, he dom echology he grculurl secor Ir s lrgely mul, d h c cuse low power, he effec of cpl sock vrble s he shre of he grculurl secor. Ivesme he grculurl secor Ir s such h requres less. Ideed, he rrvl of ew echology o replce lbor he grculurl secor, whch my hve egve mpc o grculurl oupu, s se. ccordg o he resuls of hs sudy, he Followg gudeles re suggesed. The resuls showed he mporce of relve prces. The crese of grculurl prces d mproved erms of rde fvor of grculure mkes frmers' comes rse. However, low-come households hs pr of he goverme requre domesc producers gs loss of reveue, come suppor polces for frmers o pply. Goverme polcy o prcg of grculurl producs due o prce creses should be mde oher secors. Gve h he grculurl prce creses mpc o frmers' comes d cuses he erms of rde fvor of grculure d rel come of frmers cresed chge. Due o he cresg role of grculure GDP, cresed vesme he secor d preve he flow of cpl o uproducve secors offered lucrve. Reducg dsoros d flucuos he relve prce of grculurl commodes or oherwse chge he erms of rde fvor of grculure d mufcurg resources o be fueled owrd medo d brokerge cves d servces o be produced. RFRCS brshm J The book Prcples of coomercs, Volume II, Fourh do. Tehr Uversy Press. derso K O Why grculure Decles wh coomc Growh. grculurl coomcs. : Cerl Bk of he Islmc Republc of Ir. coomc repors. Tbles of ol ccous d blce shee. Yers Dewer, Morrso.998. xpor supply d Impor Demd Fucos: Produco Therypproch. I Roder Feesr, ed., mprcl Mehods for Ierol Trde, Cmbrdge, mss.mit. Dx, orm.998. Therory of Ierol Trde. Welwy(gld) d Cmdrdge: J. sbe d Cmbrdge Uversy Press. Fh F The role of grculure ecoomc developme (produco, vesme, employme, foreg exchge). Proceedgs of he Secod Symposum of Ir grculurl polcy. College of grculure, Shrz Uversy. Fu S. 99. ffecs of Techologcl Chge d Isuol Reform o Produco Growh Chese grculure. merc Jourl of grculurl coomc: Ghk S, Igers K grculure d coomc Deveopme. The Joh Hopes Uversy press. 040

8 Il. Res. J. ppl. Bsc. Sc. Vol., 7 (3), , 03 Goph T, Roe.997. Surces of Secorl Growh coomy-wde coex: he Cse of U.S grculure. Jourl of Produchvy lyss. 8: Hrrg J.997. Techology, Fcor Suples, d Ierol Speclzo: smg he eoclsscl Model. The merc coomc Revew. hosseyu R grculurl growh lkges he ecoomy. Ph.D. Dssero. Uversy. P: 4. Kohl U Gross ol Produc Fuco d he Derved Demd for Impors d xpors. Cd Jourl of coomcs, (): Kohl U.99. Techology, Duly, d Foreg Trde: The GP Fuco pproch o Modelg Impors xpors. rbor, MI: Uversy of Mchg Press. korkezhd Zh, kf B. 009,xme he erco bewee secors of he ecoomy wh emphss o he mpor role of grculure. d ecoomc developme. Sxeeh yer. o. 63. korkezhd Zh, kf B Deerme he relve corbuo of ecoomc secors he ecoomy: he use of smulo models, Jourl of grculurl coomcs. () :69-9. Lu Lwrece J, Yoopoulos The Me-Produco Fuco pproch o Techologcl Chge World grculure. Jourl of Developme coomcs. 3:4-69. Mr W, Wrr PG.993. xplg he Relve Decle of grculure: Supply-Sde lyss for Idoes. World Bk coomc Revew 7(3): Mr W, Mr D. 00. Producvy Growh grculure versus mufcurg. coomc Developme d Culurl Chge. 49-: f.38, The role of grculure ecoomc developme of Ir. grculure d ol Developme Coferece. Tehr. Msry of grculure. oferesy.009, U roo d co-egro ecoomercs. Secod edo. Rs ssued. Tehr. Puysvsu C, Coxhed P. 00. O he Decle of grculure Developg coures: Reepreeo of he vdece. Sff Pper Seres Deprme of grculurl & ppled coomcs. Uversy of Wscos Mdso. Sbbgh M. Kerm R, Hosse ffecs growh he ecoomy. grculurl d Developme coomcs. Twelfh yer. o. 45. Smd ssess he corbuo of he grculurl secor he ecoomc growh of Ir d oher OPC coures. Jourl of grculurl d Developme coomcs. Yer 7. o. 6. Shg Y The Relve Decle of grculure ch. MPR Pper o Su L, Fulg L, Peerso W ccug for grculurl Decle Wh coomc Growh Tw. grculurl coomc. 36(): Su L. 00. Idusrl Producvy Growh d Opeess Tw. Workg pper, s Coferece o ffcecy d Producvy Growh. Teshk.006. ppled coomercs usg Mcrof. r Isue debugger. Tehr. Woodld D. 98. Ierol rd d resource lloco. mserdm, orh-holld. World Bk.99. World Developme Repor 99. ew York: Oxford Uversy Press. 04