Game Theoretic Pragmatics

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Game Theoretic Pragmatics"

Transcription

1 Game Theoretic Pragmatics Session 2: Relevance of Information & Relevance Implicatures Michael Franke, Roland Mühlenbernd & Jason Quinley Seminar für Sprachwissenschaft Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen

2 Today s Session 1 Information Dynamics 2 Relevance of Information 3 Relevance Implicatures 2 / 24

3 Definition (Updating a Belief Set) Let X T be a belief set. Learning of information Y T is modelled as updating the belief set X with Y: X[Y] = X Y. Example (Deutscher Fußballmeister 09/10) T = { } t Bayern, t Schalke,..., t Hertha as before belief state: X = { } t Bayern, t Schalke, t Hertha proposition neither Hertha nor Eintracht : Y = T \ {t Hertha, t Eintracht } update: X[Y] = { } t Bayern, t Schalke 3 / 24

4 Definition (Bayesian Update) Let Pr (T). The conditional probability of event X T given event Y T is calculated by Bayesian update as follows: Pr(X Y) = Pr(X Y) Pr(Y). Remark only defined if Pr(Y) = 0 if Pr(Y) = 0, we need belief revision (complicated) 4 / 24

5 Example (Deutscher Fußballmeister 09/10) T = { } t Bayern, t Schalke,..., t Hertha as before probabilistic belief:.6 if y = Bayern.3 if y = Schalke Pr(t y ) =.1 if y = Hertha 0 otherwise proposition neither Hertha nor Eintracht : Y = T \ {t Hertha, t Eintracht } update:.6 if y = Bayern.3 if y = Schalke Pr(t y Y) = 0 if y = Hertha 0 otherwise 5 / 24

6 Definition (Updated Decision Problem) If D = T, A, Pr, U and P T such that Pr(P) > 0, then D[P] = T, A, Pr( P), U is the decision problem D updated with information P. 6 / 24

7 Example (Beer, Wine or Vodka?) original problem D is: Pr(t) a beer a wine a vodka t cool t classy t punk EU D (a) } information showers daily : P = {t cool, t classy updated problem D[P] is: Pr(t) a beer a wine a vodka t cool t classy t punk EU D[P] (a) / 24

8 Relevance of Information When is information P relevant for D? compare D with D[P] two notions: 1 Utility Value 2 Value of Sample Information 8 / 24

9 Definition (Utility Value) The utility value UV D (P) of a proposition P in decision problem D is: UV D (P) = Value(D[P]) Value(D). P is uv-relevant iff UV(P) = 0. Intuition Compare whether D[P] is better or worse (in expectation) than D. Properties 1 can be negative, zero or positive 2 it is possible that UV D (P) < UV D (Q), for P Q 9 / 24

10 Example (Beer, Wine or Vodka?) D Pr(t) a beer a wine a vodka t cool t classy t punk EU D (a) D[P] Pr(t) a beer a wine a vodka t cool t classy t punk EU D[P] (a) P is uv-relevant: UV D (P) = Value(D[P]) Value(D) = = / 24

11 Definition ((Conditional) Value of Sample Information) Let a BR(D) be the unique action the agent chooses in D, and define the (conditional) value of sample information P as: VSI D (P) = Value(D[P]) EU D[P] (a ). P is vsi-relevant iff VSI(P) = 0. Intuition vsi compares the uninformed choice a with some informed choice a BR(D[P]) in the light of D[P]. Properties 1 VSI D (P) 0 for all D and P. 2 If information P does not change the agent s choice of action, it is irrelevant according to vsi: i.e., if a = a, then VSI D (P) = 0. 3 Information can also be irrelevant if it does change the agent s choice of action, i.e., it is not the case that if VSI D (P) = 0, then a = a. 11 / 24

12 Example (Beer, Wine or Vodka?) D Pr(t) a beer a wine a vodka t cool t classy t punk EU D (a) D[P] Pr(t) a beer a wine a vodka t cool t classy t punk EU D[P] (a) P is not vsi-relevant: VSI D (P) = Value(D[P]) EU D[P] (a wine ) = EU D[P] (a wine ) EU D[P] (a wine ) = 0 12 / 24

13 Relevance Implicatures Enrich the semantic meaning of P by maximization of relevance : Prag D (P) = P + X where X is an inference derived from the assumption that P is (maximally/optimally) relevant in D. Relevance Orders (4 possibilities) P more relevant than P (or P is relevant beyond P) iff: measure method uv-based vsi-based naïve UV D (P ) > UV D (P) UV D (P ) > UV D (P) ex post UV D[P] (P ) = 0 VSI D[P] (P ) = 0 13 / 24

14 Naïve Approach Interpret P as at least as relevant as all stronger P P: Prag D (P) = P } {P P P Rel D (P ) > Rel D (P) where Rel D ( ) is either uv or vsi. Intuition Assume that: proposition P is true, and any more relevant stronger proposition P must be false, because else the speaker would have used it. 14 / 24

15 Example (Grice s Garage) (1) a. A: I am out of petrol. b. B: There is a garage round the corner. c. The garage is open. decision problem D: Pr(t) a stroll a go t open t closed t (1b) is P = { } t open, t closed compare this to P open = { t open } and Pclosed = {t closed } 15 / 24

16 Example (Grice s Garage): Naïve Approach with uv D Pr(t) a stroll a go t open t closed t calculate uv: uv D (P ) = Value(D[P ]) Value(D) = EU D[P ] (a go) EU D (a stroll ) =.5.3 =.2 uv D (P open ) = EU D[Popen ] (a go) EU D (a stroll ) =.7 uv D (P closed ) = EU D[Pclosed ] (a stroll) EU D (a stroll ) = 0 ordering: UV D (P open ) > UV D (P ) > UV D (P closed ) pragmatic interpretation: Prag D (P ) = P { } P open = {tclosed } (wrong prediction) 16 / 24

17 Example (Grice s Garage): Naïve Approach with vsi D Pr(t) a stroll a go t open t closed t calculate vsi: vsi D (P ) = EU D[P ] (a go) EU D[P ] (a stroll) =.5.3 =.2 vsi D (P open ) =.7 vsi D (P closed ) = 0 ordering: UV D (P open ) > UV D (P ) > UV D (P closed ) pragmatic interpretation: Prag D (P ) = P { } P open = {tclosed } (wrong prediction) 17 / 24

18 Conclusion Naïve Approach does not work. Relevance Ex Post Interpret P as relevant enough, so that after knowing P no P P is relevant: Prag D (P) = P } {P P P Rel D[P] (P ) = 0 where Rel D[P] ( ) is either uv or vsi. Intuition Assume that: P is true, and all stronger P that would have been relevant beyond P, i.e., relevant information when we know P, are false, because else the speaker would have said it. 18 / 24

19 Example (Grice s Garage): ex post with uv D Pr(t) a stroll a go t open t closed t calculate UV D[P ] ( ): uv D[P ] (P open) = Value(D[P open ]) Value(D[P ]) = EU D[Popen ] (a go) EU D[P ] (a go) =.5 uv D[P ] (P closed) =.2 both propositions are relevant beyond P pragmatic interpretation: Prag D (P ) = P P open P closed =. 19 / 24

20 Example (Grice s Garage): ex post with vsi D Pr(t) a stroll a go t open t closed t calculate VSI D[P ] ( ): vsi D[P ] (P open) = EU D[Popen ] (a go) EU D[Popen ] (a go) = 1 1 = 0 vsi D[P ] (P closed) = EU D[Pclosed ] (a stroll) EU D[Pclosed ] (a go) =.3 0 =.3 only P closed is relevant beyond P pragmatic interpretation: Prag D (P ) = P P close = { } t open. 20 / 24

21 Reflection what counts as intuitively relevant information? how does this property influence language interpretation? why did only the ex post + vsi approach work? what s wrong with naïve? satisficing vs. maximizing? what s wrong with uv? relevance = painting a pink future what s good about ex post + vsi? Observation Suppose the speaker knows which action a is best to perform. Then, if she is cooperative, she will try to induce this a in the hearer. ex post + vsi assimilates to reasoning that: the induced action a BR(D[P]) is the/a best action a = a, more specific propositions that would have triggered another action = a are therefore false 21 / 24

22 Reflection does ex post + vsi always work? do we need relevance for all this? expression alternatives? no! game theory Further Reading Anton Benz (2006). Utility and Relevance of Answers. In: Game Theory and Pragmatics. Ed. by Anton Benz et al. Palgrave. Pp Anton Benz (2007). On Relevance Scale Approaches. In: Proceedings of Sinn und Bedeutung 11. Ed. by Estela Puig-Waldmüller. Pp / 24

23 Course Overview (partly tentative) date content 21-4 Gricean Pragmatics & Decision Theory rm, mf 28-4 Relevance & Implicatures rm, mf 05-5 Questions and Decision Problems mf 12-5 Introduction to Game Theory mf 19-5 Game Theory in Pragmatics rm, mf 26-5 Pentecost no class 02-6 Neo-Gricean Pragmatics rm 09-6 ibr model 1 rm, mf 16-6 ibr model 2 rm, mf 23-6 Pragmatic Reasoning about Unawareness mf 30-6 Language Learning in Network Games rm 07-7 Politeness & the Handicap Principle jq 14-7 exam homework dates (due 1 week after) 23 / 24

24 Homework 1 st homework sheet (due May 5) read: script section 2 sections 1 3 of: Dan Sperber and Deirde Wilson (2004). Relevance Theory. In: Handbook of Pragmatics. Ed. by Laurence R. Horn and Gregory Ward. Oxford: Blackwell. Pp Next Session script section 3 Robert van Rooij (1999). Questioning to Resolve Decision Problems. In: Proceedings of the 12 th Amsterdam Colloquium. Ed. by Paul Dekker 24 / 24

Game Theoretic Pragmatics

Game Theoretic Pragmatics Game Theoretic Pragmatics Session 8: The IBR Model Revisited Michael Franke, Roland Mühlenbernd & Jason Quinley Seminar für Sprachwissenschaft Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen Course Overview (partly

More information

Approaching the Logic of Conversational Implicatures

Approaching the Logic of Conversational Implicatures Approaching the Logic of Conversational Implicatures Robert van Rooy & Katrin Schulz ILLC/University of Amsterdam R.A.M.vanRooij/K.Schulz@uva.nl 1. Introduction 1.1 Aim of the Research Describe the logic

More information

Exhaustive interpretations: what to say and what not to say

Exhaustive interpretations: what to say and what not to say Benjamin SPECTOR Laboratoire de linguistique formelle, Paris 7/Ecole Normale Supérieure benjamin.spector@ens.fr Exhaustive interpretations: what to say and what not to say LSA Institute, workshop on Context

More information

Pragmatics & Game Theory Session 9: The IBR-Model

Pragmatics & Game Theory Session 9: The IBR-Model Pragmatics & Game Theory Session 9: WiSe 3/4 Table of Content Introduction Introduction How to compute the IBR-sequence Homeworks 2 The Generalized M-Implicature The 'Some-But-Not-All' Game 3 The 'Or-Reading'

More information

Game Theory for Linguists

Game Theory for Linguists Fritz Hamm, Roland Mhlenbernd 27. Juni 2016 Overview Exercises II Exercise 1: Signaling Game Properties Exercise 1 The introduced type of a signaling game has a probability function and a denotation function.

More information

Basics of conversational implicatures

Basics of conversational implicatures Semantics I, Rutgers University Week 12 Yimei Xiang November 19, 2018 1. Implication relations Basics of conversational implicatures Implication relations are inferential relations between sentences. A

More information

Meaning, Evolution and the Structure of Society

Meaning, Evolution and the Structure of Society Meaning, Evolution and the Structure of Society Roland Mühlenbernd November 7, 2014 OVERVIEW Game Theory and Linguistics Pragm. Reasoning Language Evolution GT in Lang. Use Signaling Games Replicator Dyn.

More information

UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) Signal to act : game theory in pragmatics Franke, M. Link to publication

UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) Signal to act : game theory in pragmatics Franke, M. Link to publication UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) Signal to act : game theory in pragmatics Franke, M. Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Franke, M. (2009). Signal to act : game theory in pragmatics

More information

Explaining Quantity Implicatures

Explaining Quantity Implicatures Explaining Quantity Implicatures Robert van Rooij and Tikitu de Jager Inst. for Logic, Language and Computation Universiteit van Amsterdam Oude Turfmarkt 141-147 Amsterdam, The Netherlands 0031-20-5254541

More information

UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) Games and Quantity implicatures van Rooij, R.A.M. Published in: Journal of Economic Methodology

UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) Games and Quantity implicatures van Rooij, R.A.M. Published in: Journal of Economic Methodology UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) Games and Quantity implicatures van Rooij, R.A.M. Published in: Journal of Economic Methodology DOI: 10.1080/13501780802321376 Link to publication Citation for published

More information

Global Approach to Scalar Implicatures in DRT*

Global Approach to Scalar Implicatures in DRT* Article Global Approach to Scalar Implicatures in DRT* Jae-Il Yeom Hongik University Language and Linguistics 16(1) 3 42 The Author(s) 2015 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalspermissions.nav

More information

Relevance and Bidirectional OT

Relevance and Bidirectional OT Relevance and Bidirectional OT Robert van Rooy ILLC/University of Amsterdam vanrooy@hum.uva.nl 1 Introduction According to optimality theoretic semantics (e.g. de Hoop & de Swart 2000) there exists a gap

More information

Berlin, May 16 / 2003

Berlin, May 16 / 2003 Berlin, May 16 / 2003 1 The challenge of free choice permission The basic puzzle epistemic variants wide disjunction FC permission and quantification Conjunctive permission 2 The basic puzzle (1) a. You

More information

Definitions and Proofs

Definitions and Proofs Giving Advice vs. Making Decisions: Transparency, Information, and Delegation Online Appendix A Definitions and Proofs A. The Informational Environment The set of states of nature is denoted by = [, ],

More information

Michael Franke Fritz Hamm. January 26, 2011

Michael Franke Fritz Hamm. January 26, 2011 Michael Franke Fritz Hamm Seminar für Sprachwissenschaft January 26, 2011 Three n would, p would, l would, n might p might l might Basic intuition (1) If that match had been scratched, it would have lighted.

More information

(6) Some students who drank beer or wine were allowed to drive.

(6) Some students who drank beer or wine were allowed to drive. Global Approach to Scalar Implicatures in Dynamic Semantics Jae-Il Yeom Hongik University English Language and Literature 94 Wausan-ro, Sangsu-dong, Mapo-gu Seoul 121-791 KOREA jiyeom@hongik.ac.kr Abstract

More information

Quality and Quantity of Information Exchange

Quality and Quantity of Information Exchange Quality and Quantity of Information Exchange Robert van Rooy Abstract. The paper deals with credible and relevant information flow in dialogs: How useful is it for a receiver to get some information, how

More information

Homogeneity and Plurals: From the Strongest Meaning Hypothesis to Supervaluations

Homogeneity and Plurals: From the Strongest Meaning Hypothesis to Supervaluations Homogeneity and Plurals: From the Strongest Meaning Hypothesis to Supervaluations Benjamin Spector IJN, Paris (CNRS-EHESS-ENS) Sinn und Bedeutung 18 Sept 11 13, 2013 1 / 40 The problem (1) Peter solved

More information

Statistical Inference

Statistical Inference Statistical Inference Classical and Bayesian Methods Class 6 AMS-UCSC Thu 26, 2012 Winter 2012. Session 1 (Class 6) AMS-132/206 Thu 26, 2012 1 / 15 Topics Topics We will talk about... 1 Hypothesis testing

More information

Tjalling C. Koopmans Research Institute

Tjalling C. Koopmans Research Institute Tjalling C. Koopmans Research Institute Tjalling C. Koopmans Research Institute Utrecht School of Economics Utrecht University Janskerkhof 12 3512 BL Utrecht The Netherlands telephone +31 30 253 9800 fax

More information

An Adaptive Logic for the Formal Explication of Scalar Implicatures

An Adaptive Logic for the Formal Explication of Scalar Implicatures An Adaptive Logic for the Formal Explication of Scalar Implicatures Hans Lycke Centre for Logic and Philosophy of Science, Ghent University, Blandijnberg 2, 9000 Gent, Belgium, Hans.Lycke@UGent.be http://logica.ugent.be/hans

More information

Information Retrieval and Web Search Engines

Information Retrieval and Web Search Engines Information Retrieval and Web Search Engines Lecture 4: Probabilistic Retrieval Models April 29, 2010 Wolf-Tilo Balke and Joachim Selke Institut für Informationssysteme Technische Universität Braunschweig

More information

At most at last. Doris Penka Universität Konstanz

At most at last. Doris Penka Universität Konstanz Sinn und Bedeutung 2014 Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, 15.9.2014 At most at last Doris Penka Universität Konstanz doris.penka@uni-konstanz.de 1. Superlative modifiers and ignorance inferences The

More information

In Defense of Jeffrey Conditionalization

In Defense of Jeffrey Conditionalization In Defense of Jeffrey Conditionalization Franz Huber Department of Philosophy University of Toronto Please do not cite! December 31, 2013 Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Weisberg s Paradox 3 3 Jeffrey Conditionalization

More information

Deontic Logic and Meta-Ethics

Deontic Logic and Meta-Ethics Deontic Logic and Meta-Ethics Deontic Logic as been a field in which quite apart from the questions of antinomies "paradoxes" have played a decisive roles, since the field has been invented. These paradoxes

More information

The relevance of conditional answers *

The relevance of conditional answers * 1 Conditional Perfection The relevance of conditional answers * GC Colloquium, Radboud University, 14 Mar 2019, Utrecht University, J.L.Tellings@uu.nl Conditional perfection ( Geis and Zwicky 1971; de

More information

First-Degree Entailment

First-Degree Entailment March 5, 2013 Relevance Logics Relevance logics are non-classical logics that try to avoid the paradoxes of material and strict implication: p (q p) p (p q) (p q) (q r) (p p) q p (q q) p (q q) Counterintuitive?

More information

Pragmatic effects in processing superlative and comparative quantifiers: epistemic-algorithmic approach

Pragmatic effects in processing superlative and comparative quantifiers: epistemic-algorithmic approach Pragmatic effects in processing superlative and comparative quantifiers: epistemic-algorithmic approach Maria Spychalska, Institute of Philosophy II, Ruhr-University Bochum September 27, 2013 1 2 3 Superlative

More information

Adjectival scales and three types of implicature *

Adjectival scales and three types of implicature * Proceedings of SALT 28: 409 432, 2018 Adjectival scales and three types of implicature * Nicole Gotzner Leibniz-ZAS, Humboldt-University Stephanie Solt Leibniz-ZAS Anton Benz Leibniz-ZAS Abstract In this

More information

Part 1: Propositional Logic

Part 1: Propositional Logic Part 1: Propositional Logic Literature (also for first-order logic) Schöning: Logik für Informatiker, Spektrum Fitting: First-Order Logic and Automated Theorem Proving, Springer 1 Last time 1.1 Syntax

More information

Philosophy 148 Announcements & Such

Philosophy 148 Announcements & Such Branden Fitelson Philosophy 148 Lecture 1 Philosophy 148 Announcements & Such Overall, people did very well on the mid-term (µ = 90, σ = 16). HW #2 graded will be posted very soon. Raul won t be able to

More information

A Rothschild-Stiglitz approach to Bayesian persuasion

A Rothschild-Stiglitz approach to Bayesian persuasion A Rothschild-Stiglitz approach to Bayesian persuasion Matthew Gentzkow and Emir Kamenica Stanford University and University of Chicago September 2015 Abstract Rothschild and Stiglitz (1970) introduce a

More information

Scalar Implicatures: Are There Any?

Scalar Implicatures: Are There Any? Scalar Implicatures: Are There Any? Angelika Kratzer University of Massachusetts at Amherst Workshop on Polarity, Scalar Phenomena, and Implicatures. University of Milan-Bicocca June 18, 2003 1 The cast

More information

Reasoning with Bayesian Networks

Reasoning with Bayesian Networks Reasoning with Lecture 1: Probability Calculus, NICTA and ANU Reasoning with Overview of the Course Probability calculus, Bayesian networks Inference by variable elimination, factor elimination, conditioning

More information

Lecture 8. Probabilistic Reasoning CS 486/686 May 25, 2006

Lecture 8. Probabilistic Reasoning CS 486/686 May 25, 2006 Lecture 8 Probabilistic Reasoning CS 486/686 May 25, 2006 Outline Review probabilistic inference, independence and conditional independence Bayesian networks What are they What do they mean How do we create

More information

INTRODUCTION & PROPOSITIONAL LOGIC. Dougherty, POLS 8000

INTRODUCTION & PROPOSITIONAL LOGIC. Dougherty, POLS 8000 INTRODUCTION & PROPOSITIONAL LOGIC Dougherty, POLS 8000 Strategy in Politics Professor: Keith Dougherty Home Page: spia.uga.edu/faculty_pages/dougherk/ Office: Baldwin 408, (706)542-2989 e-mail: dougherk@uga.edu

More information

Lecture 3: Probabilistic Retrieval Models

Lecture 3: Probabilistic Retrieval Models Probabilistic Retrieval Models Information Retrieval and Web Search Engines Lecture 3: Probabilistic Retrieval Models November 5 th, 2013 Wolf-Tilo Balke and Kinda El Maarry Institut für Informationssysteme

More information

Similarity: towards a unified account of scalar implicatures, free choice permission and presupposition projection

Similarity: towards a unified account of scalar implicatures, free choice permission and presupposition projection Similarity: towards a unified account of scalar implicatures, free choice permission and presupposition projection Emmanuel Chemla Abstract I propose a new theory of scalar implicatures: the speaker should

More information

Logic and Proofs. Jan COT3100: Applications of Discrete Structures Jan 2007

Logic and Proofs. Jan COT3100: Applications of Discrete Structures Jan 2007 COT3100: Propositional Equivalences 1 Logic and Proofs Jan 2007 COT3100: Propositional Equivalences 2 1 Translating from Natural Languages EXAMPLE. Translate the following sentence into a logical expression:

More information

Section 1.1: Logical Form and Logical Equivalence

Section 1.1: Logical Form and Logical Equivalence Section 1.1: Logical Form and Logical Equivalence An argument is a sequence of statements aimed at demonstrating the truth of an assertion. The assertion at the end of an argument is called the conclusion,

More information

Inquisitive Semantics and Pragmatics

Inquisitive Semantics and Pragmatics Inquisitive Semantics and Pragmatics Jeroen Groenendijk & Floris Roelofsen ILLC/Department of Philosophy Universiteit van Amsterdam http://www.illc.uva.nl/inquisitive-semantics Abstract. This paper starts

More information

A Rothschild-Stiglitz approach to Bayesian persuasion

A Rothschild-Stiglitz approach to Bayesian persuasion A Rothschild-Stiglitz approach to Bayesian persuasion Matthew Gentzkow and Emir Kamenica Stanford University and University of Chicago January 2016 Consider a situation where one person, call him Sender,

More information

Introduction to Machine Learning. Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference. Lecturers: Eran Halperin, Lior Wolf

Introduction to Machine Learning. Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference. Lecturers: Eran Halperin, Lior Wolf 1 Introduction to Machine Learning Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference Lecturers: Eran Halperin, Lior Wolf 2014-15 We know that X ~ B(n,p), but we do not know p. We get a random sample from X, a

More information

Disjunctions in state-based semantics

Disjunctions in state-based semantics Disjunctions in state-based semantics Maria Aloni [Special thanks to I. Ciardelli, J. Groenendijk, and F. Roelofsen] ILLC-University of Amsterdam M.D.Aloni@uva.nl Disjunction days @ ZAS, Berlin 3-6-2016

More information

1111: Linear Algebra I

1111: Linear Algebra I 1111: Linear Algebra I Dr. Vladimir Dotsenko (Vlad) Lecture 1 Dr. Vladimir Dotsenko (Vlad) 1111: Linear Algebra I Lecture 1 1 / 14 House rules 3 lectures on all odd weeks, 2 lectures and one tutorial on

More information

For True Conditionalizers Weisberg s Paradox is a False Alarm

For True Conditionalizers Weisberg s Paradox is a False Alarm For True Conditionalizers Weisberg s Paradox is a False Alarm Franz Huber Abstract: Weisberg (2009) introduces a phenomenon he terms perceptual undermining He argues that it poses a problem for Jeffrey

More information

For True Conditionalizers Weisberg s Paradox is a False Alarm

For True Conditionalizers Weisberg s Paradox is a False Alarm For True Conditionalizers Weisberg s Paradox is a False Alarm Franz Huber Department of Philosophy University of Toronto franz.huber@utoronto.ca http://huber.blogs.chass.utoronto.ca/ July 7, 2014; final

More information

A Rothschild-Stiglitz approach to Bayesian persuasion

A Rothschild-Stiglitz approach to Bayesian persuasion A Rothschild-Stiglitz approach to Bayesian persuasion Matthew Gentzkow and Emir Kamenica Stanford University and University of Chicago December 2015 Abstract Rothschild and Stiglitz (1970) represent random

More information

Expressing ignorance or indifference

Expressing ignorance or indifference Expressing ignorance or indifference Modal implicatures in Bi-directional OT Maria Aloni ILLC/University of Amsterdam M.D.Aloni@uva.nl Abstract. The article presents a formal analysis in the framework

More information

Making Decisions Using Sets of Probabilities: Updating, Time Consistency, and Calibration

Making Decisions Using Sets of Probabilities: Updating, Time Consistency, and Calibration Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 42 (2011) 393-426 Submitted 04/11; published 11/11 Making Decisions Using Sets of Probabilities: Updating, Time Consistency, and Calibration Peter D. Grünwald

More information

How Much Evidence Should One Collect?

How Much Evidence Should One Collect? How Much Evidence Should One Collect? Remco Heesen October 10, 2013 Abstract This paper focuses on the question how much evidence one should collect before deciding on the truth-value of a proposition.

More information

Breaking de Morgan s law in counterfactual antecedents

Breaking de Morgan s law in counterfactual antecedents Breaking de Morgan s law in counterfactual antecedents Lucas Champollion New York University champollion@nyu.edu Ivano Ciardelli University of Amsterdam i.a.ciardelli@uva.nl Linmin Zhang New York University

More information

Models of Reputation with Bayesian Updating

Models of Reputation with Bayesian Updating Models of Reputation with Bayesian Updating Jia Chen 1 The Tariff Game (Downs and Rocke 1996) 1.1 Basic Setting Two states, A and B, are setting the tariffs for trade. The basic setting of the game resembles

More information

Introduction to Pragmatics

Introduction to Pragmatics Introduction to Pragmatics Summer 2016 Tuesdays 2:30--4:00pm @ 2321.HS 3H INSTRUCTOR Todor Koev (Todor.Koev@uni-duesseldorf.de) Presupposition projection Presupposition is a prevalent type of inference

More information

Discrete Event Systems Solution to Exercise Sheet 6

Discrete Event Systems Solution to Exercise Sheet 6 Distributed Computing HS 2013 Prof. R. Wattenhofer / K.-T. Foerster, T. Langner, J. Seidel Discrete Event Systems Solution to Exercise Sheet 6 1 Soccer Betting a) The following Markov chain models the

More information

Capturing Independence Graphically; Undirected Graphs

Capturing Independence Graphically; Undirected Graphs Capturing Independence Graphically; Undirected Graphs COMPSCI 276, Spring 2017 Set 2: Rina Dechter (Reading: Pearl chapters 3, Darwiche chapter 4) 1 Outline Graphical models: The constraint network, Probabilistic

More information

Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Probability

Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Probability Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Probability CPSC 322 Uncertainty 1 Textbook 6.1 Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Probability CPSC 322 Uncertainty 1, Slide 1 Lecture Overview 1

More information

Random Variable. Pr(X = a) = Pr(s)

Random Variable. Pr(X = a) = Pr(s) Random Variable Definition A random variable X on a sample space Ω is a real-valued function on Ω; that is, X : Ω R. A discrete random variable is a random variable that takes on only a finite or countably

More information

Knowledge base (KB) = set of sentences in a formal language Declarative approach to building an agent (or other system):

Knowledge base (KB) = set of sentences in a formal language Declarative approach to building an agent (or other system): Logic Knowledge-based agents Inference engine Knowledge base Domain-independent algorithms Domain-specific content Knowledge base (KB) = set of sentences in a formal language Declarative approach to building

More information

Overview, cont. Overview, cont. Logistics. Optional Reference #1. Optional Reference #2. Workload and Grading

Overview, cont. Overview, cont. Logistics. Optional Reference #1. Optional Reference #2. Workload and Grading Course staff CS389L: Automated Logical Reasoning Lecture 1: ntroduction and Review of Basics şıl Dillig nstructor: şil Dillig E-mail: isil@cs.utexas.edu Office hours: Thursday after class until 6:30 pm

More information

Ex Post Cheap Talk : Value of Information and Value of Signals

Ex Post Cheap Talk : Value of Information and Value of Signals Ex Post Cheap Talk : Value of Information and Value of Signals Liping Tang Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA 15213, USA Abstract. Crawford and Sobel s Cheap Talk model [1] describes an information

More information

Towards Tractable Inference for Resource-Bounded Agents

Towards Tractable Inference for Resource-Bounded Agents Towards Tractable Inference for Resource-Bounded Agents Toryn Q. Klassen Sheila A. McIlraith Hector J. Levesque Department of Computer Science University of Toronto Toronto, Ontario, Canada {toryn,sheila,hector}@cs.toronto.edu

More information

Price: $25 (incl. T-Shirt, morning tea and lunch) Visit:

Price: $25 (incl. T-Shirt, morning tea and lunch) Visit: Three days of interesting talks & workshops from industry experts across Australia Explore new computing topics Network with students & employers in Brisbane Price: $25 (incl. T-Shirt, morning tea and

More information

Probabilistic Argument Graphs for Argumentation Lotteries

Probabilistic Argument Graphs for Argumentation Lotteries Probabilistic Argument Graphs for Argumentation Lotteries Anthony Hunter 1 Matthias Thimm 2 1 Department of Computer Science, University College London, UK 2 Institute for Web Science and Technology, University

More information

Exhaustive interpretation of complex sentences

Exhaustive interpretation of complex sentences Exhaustive interpretation of complex sentences Robert van Rooij and Katrin Schulz Abstract. In terms of Groenendijk & Stokhof s (1984) formalization of exhaustive interpretation, many conversational implicatures

More information

Bandits and Exploration: How do we (optimally) gather information? Sham M. Kakade

Bandits and Exploration: How do we (optimally) gather information? Sham M. Kakade Bandits and Exploration: How do we (optimally) gather information? Sham M. Kakade Machine Learning for Big Data CSE547/STAT548 University of Washington S. M. Kakade (UW) Optimization for Big data 1 / 22

More information

A Bayesian model for event-based trust

A Bayesian model for event-based trust A Bayesian model for event-based trust Elements of a foundation for computational trust Vladimiro Sassone ECS, University of Southampton joint work K. Krukow and M. Nielsen Oxford, 9 March 2007 V. Sassone

More information

An Example of Conflicts of Interest as Pandering Disincentives

An Example of Conflicts of Interest as Pandering Disincentives An Example of Conflicts of Interest as Pandering Disincentives Saori Chiba and Kaiwen Leong Current draft: January 205 Abstract Consider an uninformed decision maker (DM) who communicates with a partially

More information

A Game Semantics for a Non-Classical Logic

A Game Semantics for a Non-Classical Logic Can BAŞKENT INRIA, Nancy can@canbaskent.net www.canbaskent.net October 16, 2013 Outlook of the Talk Classical (but Extended) Game Theoretical Semantics for Negation Classical Game Theoretical Semantics

More information

Illustration of the K2 Algorithm for Learning Bayes Net Structures

Illustration of the K2 Algorithm for Learning Bayes Net Structures Illustration of the K2 Algorithm for Learning Bayes Net Structures Prof. Carolina Ruiz Department of Computer Science, WPI ruiz@cs.wpi.edu http://www.cs.wpi.edu/ ruiz The purpose of this handout is to

More information

Correlated Equilibrium in Games with Incomplete Information

Correlated Equilibrium in Games with Incomplete Information Correlated Equilibrium in Games with Incomplete Information Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris Econometric Society Summer Meeting June 2012 Robust Predictions Agenda game theoretic predictions are very

More information

SHEBA. Experiential Learning For Non Compensatory Choice. Khaled Boughanmi Asim Ansari Rajeev Kohli. Columbia Business School

SHEBA. Experiential Learning For Non Compensatory Choice. Khaled Boughanmi Asim Ansari Rajeev Kohli. Columbia Business School SHEBA Experiential Learning For Non Compensatory Choice Khaled Boughanmi Asim Ansari Rajeev Kohli Columbia Business School 1 Research Questions 1. How is learning under non-compensatory decision rules

More information

PHIL 50 - Introduction to Logic

PHIL 50 - Introduction to Logic Truth Validity Logical Consequence Equivalence V ψ ψ φ 1, φ 2,, φ k ψ φ ψ PHIL 50 - Introduction to Logic Marcello Di Bello, Stanford University, Spring 2014 Week 2 Friday Class Overview of Key Notions

More information

Confirmation Theory. Pittsburgh Summer Program 1. Center for the Philosophy of Science, University of Pittsburgh July 7, 2017

Confirmation Theory. Pittsburgh Summer Program 1. Center for the Philosophy of Science, University of Pittsburgh July 7, 2017 Confirmation Theory Pittsburgh Summer Program 1 Center for the Philosophy of Science, University of Pittsburgh July 7, 2017 1 Confirmation Disconfirmation 1. Sometimes, a piece of evidence, E, gives reason

More information

Modal Dependence Logic

Modal Dependence Logic Modal Dependence Logic Jouko Väänänen Institute for Logic, Language and Computation Universiteit van Amsterdam Plantage Muidergracht 24 1018 TV Amsterdam, The Netherlands J.A.Vaananen@uva.nl Abstract We

More information

Logical agents. Chapter 7. Chapter 7 1

Logical agents. Chapter 7. Chapter 7 1 Logical agents Chapter 7 Chapter 7 1 Outline Knowledge-based agents Logic in general models and entailment Propositional (oolean) logic Equivalence, validity, satisfiability Inference rules and theorem

More information

On the Consistency among Prior, Posteriors, and Information Sets

On the Consistency among Prior, Posteriors, and Information Sets On the Consistency among Prior, Posteriors, and Information Sets Satoshi Fukuda September 23, 2018 Abstract This paper studies implications of the consistency conditions among prior, posteriors, and information

More information

Belief and Desire: On Information and its Value

Belief and Desire: On Information and its Value Belief and Desire: On Information and its Value Ariel Caticha Department of Physics University at Albany SUNY ariel@albany.edu Info-Metrics Institute 04/26/2013 1 Part 1: Belief 2 What is information?

More information

Introduction to Machine Learning. Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference. Lecturers: Eran Halperin, Yishay Mansour, Lior Wolf

Introduction to Machine Learning. Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference. Lecturers: Eran Halperin, Yishay Mansour, Lior Wolf 1 Introduction to Machine Learning Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference Lecturers: Eran Halperin, Yishay Mansour, Lior Wolf 2013-14 We know that X ~ B(n,p), but we do not know p. We get a random sample

More information

127: Lecture notes HT17. Week 8. (1) If Oswald didn t shoot Kennedy, someone else did. (2) If Oswald hadn t shot Kennedy, someone else would have.

127: Lecture notes HT17. Week 8. (1) If Oswald didn t shoot Kennedy, someone else did. (2) If Oswald hadn t shot Kennedy, someone else would have. I. Counterfactuals I.I. Indicative vs Counterfactual (LfP 8.1) The difference between indicative and counterfactual conditionals comes out in pairs like the following: (1) If Oswald didn t shoot Kennedy,

More information

Classical and Bayesian inference

Classical and Bayesian inference Classical and Bayesian inference AMS 132 Claudia Wehrhahn (UCSC) Classical and Bayesian inference January 8 1 / 8 Probability and Statistical Models Motivating ideas AMS 131: Suppose that the random variable

More information

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. Learning and Evaluation of Pattern Recognition Processes

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. Learning and Evaluation of Pattern Recognition Processes Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning James L. Crowley ENSIMAG 3 - MMIS Fall Semester 2016 Lesson 1 5 October 2016 Learning and Evaluation of Pattern Recognition Processes Outline Notation...2 1. The

More information

Probabilistic Information Retrieval

Probabilistic Information Retrieval Probabilistic Information Retrieval Sumit Bhatia July 16, 2009 Sumit Bhatia Probabilistic Information Retrieval 1/23 Overview 1 Information Retrieval IR Models Probability Basics 2 Document Ranking Problem

More information

PS10.3 Logical implications

PS10.3 Logical implications Warmup: Construct truth tables for these compound statements: 1) p (q r) p q r p q r p (q r) PS10.3 Logical implications Lets check it out: We will be covering Implications, logical equivalence, converse,

More information

COMP219: Artificial Intelligence. Lecture 19: Logic for KR

COMP219: Artificial Intelligence. Lecture 19: Logic for KR COMP219: Artificial Intelligence Lecture 19: Logic for KR 1 Overview Last time Expert Systems and Ontologies Today Logic as a knowledge representation scheme Propositional Logic Syntax Semantics Proof

More information

The pragmatics of questions and answers, Part 2: Partition semantics and decision-theoretic pragmatics

The pragmatics of questions and answers, Part 2: Partition semantics and decision-theoretic pragmatics The pragmatics of questions and answers, Part 2: Partition semantics and decision-theoretic pragmatics Christopher Potts UMass mherst Linguistics CMPSCI 585, December 4, 2007 What kind of answer is that?

More information

Epistemic Informativeness

Epistemic Informativeness Epistemic Informativeness Yanjing Wang and Jie Fan Abstract In this paper, we introduce and formalize the concept of epistemic informativeness (EI) of statements: the set of new propositions that an agent

More information

Probability. CS 3793/5233 Artificial Intelligence Probability 1

Probability. CS 3793/5233 Artificial Intelligence Probability 1 CS 3793/5233 Artificial Intelligence 1 Motivation Motivation Random Variables Semantics Dice Example Joint Dist. Ex. Axioms Agents don t have complete knowledge about the world. Agents need to make decisions

More information

A DISJUNCTION IS EXCLUSIVE UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE INTRODUCING THE ADAPTIVE LOGICS APPROACH TO GRICEAN PRAGMATICS

A DISJUNCTION IS EXCLUSIVE UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE INTRODUCING THE ADAPTIVE LOGICS APPROACH TO GRICEAN PRAGMATICS A DISJUNCTION IS EXCLUSIVE UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE INTRODUCING THE ADAPTIVE LOGICS APPROACH TO GRICEAN PRAGMATICS Hans Lycke Abstract In Gricean pragmatics, generalized conversational implicatures (GCI)

More information

Propositional Logic: Logical Agents (Part I)

Propositional Logic: Logical Agents (Part I) Propositional Logic: Logical Agents (Part I) This lecture topic: Propositional Logic (two lectures) Chapter 7.1-7.4 (this lecture, Part I) Chapter 7.5 (next lecture, Part II) Next lecture topic: First-order

More information

Indicative conditionals

Indicative conditionals Indicative conditionals PHIL 43916 November 14, 2012 1. Three types of conditionals... 1 2. Material conditionals... 1 3. Indicatives and possible worlds... 4 4. Conditionals and adverbs of quantification...

More information

Human interpretation and reasoning about conditionals

Human interpretation and reasoning about conditionals Human interpretation and reasoning about conditionals Niki Pfeifer 1 Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy Language and Cognition Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München www.users.sbg.ac.at/~pfeifern/

More information

Formal Reasoning CSE 331. Lecture 2 Formal Reasoning. Announcements. Formalization and Reasoning. Software Design and Implementation

Formal Reasoning CSE 331. Lecture 2 Formal Reasoning. Announcements. Formalization and Reasoning. Software Design and Implementation CSE 331 Software Design and Implementation Lecture 2 Formal Reasoning Announcements Homework 0 due Friday at 5 PM Heads up: no late days for this one! Homework 1 due Wednesday at 11 PM Using program logic

More information

Introduction Propositional Logic

Introduction Propositional Logic Discrete Mathematics for CSE of KU Introduction Propositional Logic Instructor: Kangil Kim (CSE) E-mail: kikim01@konkuk.ac.kr Tel. : 02-450-3493 Room : New Milenium Bldg. 1103 Lab : New Engineering Bldg.

More information

Lecture 10: Introduction to reasoning under uncertainty. Uncertainty

Lecture 10: Introduction to reasoning under uncertainty. Uncertainty Lecture 10: Introduction to reasoning under uncertainty Introduction to reasoning under uncertainty Review of probability Axioms and inference Conditional probability Probability distributions COMP-424,

More information

Nested Epistemic Logic Programs

Nested Epistemic Logic Programs Nested Epistemic Logic Programs Kewen Wang 1 and Yan Zhang 2 1 Griffith University, Australia k.wang@griffith.edu.au 2 University of Western Sydney yan@cit.uws.edu.au Abstract. Nested logic programs and

More information

CS 446 Machine Learning Fall 2016 Nov 01, Bayesian Learning

CS 446 Machine Learning Fall 2016 Nov 01, Bayesian Learning CS 446 Machine Learning Fall 206 Nov 0, 206 Bayesian Learning Professor: Dan Roth Scribe: Ben Zhou, C. Cervantes Overview Bayesian Learning Naive Bayes Logistic Regression Bayesian Learning So far, we

More information

CSE 20 DISCRETE MATH WINTER

CSE 20 DISCRETE MATH WINTER CSE 20 DISCRETE MATH WINTER 2016 http://cseweb.ucsd.edu/classes/wi16/cse20-ab/ Reminders Exam 1 in one week One note sheet ok Review sessions Saturday / Sunday Assigned seats: seat map on Piazza shortly

More information

Expectation of geometric distribution

Expectation of geometric distribution Expectation of geometric distribution What is the probability that X is finite? Can now compute E(X): Σ k=1f X (k) = Σ k=1(1 p) k 1 p = pσ j=0(1 p) j = p 1 1 (1 p) = 1 E(X) = Σ k=1k (1 p) k 1 p = p [ Σ

More information

CS446: Machine Learning Fall Final Exam. December 6 th, 2016

CS446: Machine Learning Fall Final Exam. December 6 th, 2016 CS446: Machine Learning Fall 2016 Final Exam December 6 th, 2016 This is a closed book exam. Everything you need in order to solve the problems is supplied in the body of this exam. This exam booklet contains

More information