ECONOMETRICS I. Cheating and the violation of any of the above instructions, lead to the cancellation of the student s paper.
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1 Jorge Mendes Maria Jordão Midterm (A) Spring 2014 Undergraduate degree in Information Management 22/04/2014 ECONOMETRICS I Name: Number: Grade: Time to completion: 80 minutes This is a CLOSED book exam. No notes, books, tablets, laptops and cell phones are allowed. The use of a calculator is allowed, but the invigilators can erase the device memory at any time. Using a calculator containing information that would be unacceptable in paper form (e.g., programs or notes entered by a student) is prohibited. Using a calculator with built-in notes or student created programs is considered cheating. Mobile phones are not permitted in the examination room under any circumstances The use of lead pencils or erasable ball points to write answers is strictly disallowed. Students are not allowed to seek clarifications regarding the exam questions. No student is allowed to leave the examination room until half an hour has elapsed after the start of the exam. Students are not allowed to remove the staple from this exam handout. Students must make every effort to write legibly in their exam answer book. This minimizes the risk of marks being lost due to indecipherable content. Whenever omitted, use a 5% significance level. Period (.) is used as decimal marks. Formulate every statistical procedure used to justify your answers. Cheating and the violation of any of the above instructions, lead to the cancellation of the student s paper.
2 SET I To answer the questions for this problem, please consider the results in APPENDIX 1. A group of students from NOVA IMS decided to study users popularity in social networks, namely on facebook. To that end, these students collected information about the number of photo tags (nr_tags), the number of friends (nr_friends), the users age (age) and time (in months) since the user joined facebook (time_member). The group of students started by estimating a simple regression model, in an attempt to explain the number of photo tags with the time since the user joined facebook. Having this model in mind: 1) (2, 00) Statistically and economically interpret the effect from the time since the user joined facebook on the user s popularity. 2) (2, 00) Give a meaning to the value obtained for the coefficient of determination. After thinking a bit more about the subject, students decided to also include the user s age and number of friends on facebook as explanatory variables. Considering the results obtained when estimating such model: 3) (3, 50) Do you agree with the students decision? Justify your answer with the statistical inference you find appropriate and the goodness of fit. 4) (2, 00) Assess the overall significance for the second model estimated. SET II With the aim of studying the Chief Executive Officers salary in a given country and in a given year, a researcher has established the following equation: Where: ln(sal i ) = β 0 + β 1 antde i + β 2 antde i 2 + β 3 ln(vend i ) + β 4 ln(val_merc i ) + u i sal: annual salary, in thousands of euros antde: years as CEO in the company vend: company sales, in millions of euros val_merc: company market value, in millions of euros During research development, several models were estimated, including those presented in APPENDIX II. Based on those results, answer the following questions: 5) (4, 00) Statistically and economically interpret the effects from variables antde, vend and val_merc on the CEO s salary. 6) (2, 50) Consider an individual with an annual salary of million euros, being a CEO for 2 years in a company with a market value of 23.2 million euros and sales of 6.2 million euros. What is the estimation error associated with the estimate for this CEO s salary? 2/9
3 SET III 7) (2, 00) The analysis of a correlation matrix is essential when applying econometrics. To what extent do you agree with this statement? Explain. 8) (2, 00) Show that the OLS estimator (β = (X X) 1 X Y) is unbiased. 3/9
4 APPENDIX 1 The REG Procedure Dependent Variable: nr_tags Number of Observations Read 80 Number of Observations Used 80 Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq Coeff Var Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > t Intercept time_member The REG Procedure Dependent Variable: nr_tags Number of Observations Read 80 Number of Observations Used 80 Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq Coeff Var Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > t Intercept nr_friends <.0001 age <.0001 time_member /9
5 APPENDIX 2 The REG Procedure Dependent Variable: ln_sal Number of Observations Read 177 Number of Observations Used 177 Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq Coeff Var Parameter Estimates ParameterStandard Variable DF Estimate Error t ValuePr > t Intercept <.0001 ln_vend <.0001 ln_val_merc The REG Procedure Dependent Variable: ln_sal Number of Observations Read 177 Number of Observations Used 177 Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq Coeff Var Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Value Pr > t Intercept <.0001 antde antde ln_vend <.0001 ln_val_merc /9
6 Statistical Inference: t-test: t i = β i β i var(β i) ~t (n k 1) F-test: F = SSR R SSR UR q SSR UR n k 1 = R 2 2 UR R R q 1 R2 ~F (q;n k 1) UR n k 1 Where k stands for the number of regressors, q stands for the number of constraints, n stands for the number of observations and subscripts R and UR indicate the Restricted and the Unrestricted models, respectively. Moments: Cov(X, Y) = E(X Y) E(X)E(Y) Var(X) = E(X 2 ) E 2 (X) Var(X ± Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y) ± 2cov((X, Y) Cov(X, Y) Corr(X, Y) = Var(X) Var(Y) 6/9
7 Percentiles of the t distribution with n degrees of freedom, t (n) n q 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 0,95 0,975 0,99 0,995 0,999 0, ,325 0,727 1,376 3,078 6,314 12,706 31,821 63, , , ,289 0,617 1,061 1,886 2,920 4,303 6,965 9,925 22,327 31, ,277 0,584 0,978 1,638 2,353 3,182 4,541 5,841 10,215 12, ,271 0,569 0,941 1,533 2,132 2,776 3,747 4,604 7,173 8, ,267 0,559 0,920 1,476 2,015 2,571 3,365 4,032 5,893 6, ,265 0,553 0,906 1,440 1,943 2,447 3,143 3,707 5,208 5, ,263 0,549 0,896 1,415 1,895 2,365 2,998 3,499 4,785 5, ,262 0,546 0,889 1,397 1,860 2,306 2,896 3,355 4,501 5, ,261 0,543 0,883 1,383 1,833 2,262 2,821 3,250 4,297 4, ,260 0,542 0,879 1,372 1,812 2,228 2,764 3,169 4,144 4, ,260 0,540 0,876 1,363 1,796 2,201 2,718 3,106 4,025 4, ,259 0,539 0,873 1,356 1,782 2,179 2,681 3,055 3,930 4, ,259 0,538 0,870 1,350 1,771 2,160 2,650 3,012 3,852 4, ,258 0,537 0,868 1,345 1,761 2,145 2,624 2,977 3,787 4, ,258 0,536 0,866 1,341 1,753 2,131 2,602 2,947 3,733 4, ,258 0,535 0,865 1,337 1,746 2,120 2,583 2,921 3,686 4, ,257 0,534 0,863 1,333 1,740 2,110 2,567 2,898 3,646 3, ,257 0,534 0,862 1,330 1,734 2,101 2,552 2,878 3,610 3, ,257 0,533 0,861 1,328 1,729 2,093 2,539 2,861 3,579 3, ,257 0,533 0,860 1,325 1,725 2,086 2,528 2,845 3,552 3, ,257 0,532 0,859 1,323 1,721 2,080 2,518 2,831 3,527 3, ,256 0,532 0,858 1,321 1,717 2,074 2,508 2,819 3,505 3, ,256 0,532 0,858 1,319 1,714 2,069 2,500 2,807 3,485 3, ,256 0,531 0,857 1,318 1,711 2,064 2,492 2,797 3,467 3, ,256 0,531 0,856 1,316 1,708 2,060 2,485 2,787 3,450 3, ,256 0,531 0,856 1,315 1,706 2,056 2,479 2,779 3,435 3, ,256 0,531 0,855 1,314 1,703 2,052 2,473 2,771 3,421 3, ,256 0,530 0,855 1,313 1,701 2,048 2,467 2,763 3,408 3, ,256 0,530 0,854 1,311 1,699 2,045 2,462 2,756 3,396 3, ,256 0,530 0,854 1,310 1,697 2,042 2,457 2,750 3,385 3, ,255 0,529 0,852 1,306 1,690 2,030 2,438 2,724 3,340 3, ,255 0,529 0,851 1,303 1,684 2,021 2,423 2,704 3,307 3, ,255 0,528 0,850 1,301 1,679 2,014 2,412 2,690 3,281 3, ,255 0,528 0,849 1,299 1,676 2,009 2,403 2,678 3,261 3, ,254 0,527 0,848 1,296 1,671 2,000 2,390 2,660 3,232 3, ,254 0,527 0,847 1,294 1,667 1,994 2,381 2,648 3,211 3, ,254 0,526 0,846 1,292 1,664 1,990 2,374 2,639 3,195 3, ,254 0,526 0,846 1,291 1,662 1,987 2,368 2,632 3,183 3, ,254 0,526 0,845 1,290 1,660 1,984 2,364 2,626 3,174 3, ,254 0,526 0,844 1,287 1,655 1,976 2,351 2,609 3,145 3, ,254 0,525 0,843 1,286 1,653 1,972 2,345 2,601 3,131 3, ,253 0,525 0,842 1,282 1,646 1,962 2,330 2,581 3,098 3, ,253 0,524 0,842 1,282 1,645 1,960 2,326 2,576 3,090 3,291 7/9
8 F distribution with n and m degrees of freedom and probability q m Prob. n ,025 0,002 0,026 0,057 0,082 0,100 0,113 0,124 0,132 0,139 0,144 0,153 0,159 0, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,464 0, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,919 0,025 0,001 0,026 0,062 0,094 0,119 0,138 0,153 0,165 0,175 0,183 0,196 0,206 0, ,950 18,513 19,000 19,164 19,247 19,296 19,330 19,353 19,371 19,385 19,396 19,413 19,424 19,433 0,975 38,506 39,000 39,165 39,248 39,298 39,331 39,355 39,373 39,387 39,398 39,415 39,427 39,435 0,025 0,001 0,026 0,065 0,100 0,129 0,152 0,170 0,185 0,197 0,207 0,224 0,236 0, ,950 10,128 9,552 9,277 9,117 9,013 8,941 8,887 8,845 8,812 8,786 8,745 8,715 8,692 0,975 17,443 16,044 15,439 15,101 14,885 14,735 14,624 14,540 14,473 14,419 14,337 14,277 14,232 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,066 0,104 0,135 0,161 0,181 0,198 0,212 0,224 0,243 0,257 0, ,950 7,709 6,944 6,591 6,388 6,256 6,163 6,094 6,041 5,999 5,964 5,912 5,873 5,844 0,975 12,218 10,649 9,979 9,605 9,364 9,197 9,074 8,980 8,905 8,844 8,751 8,684 8,633 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,067 0,107 0,140 0,167 0,189 0,208 0,223 0,236 0,257 0,273 0, ,950 6,608 5,786 5,409 5,192 5,050 4,950 4,876 4,818 4,772 4,735 4,678 4,636 4,604 0,975 10,007 8,434 7,764 7,388 7,146 6,978 6,853 6,757 6,681 6,619 6,525 6,456 6,403 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,068 0,109 0,143 0,172 0,195 0,215 0,231 0,246 0,268 0,286 0, ,950 5,987 5,143 4,757 4,534 4,387 4,284 4,207 4,147 4,099 4,060 4,000 3,956 3,922 0,975 8,813 7,260 6,599 6,227 5,988 5,820 5,695 5,600 5,523 5,461 5,366 5,297 5,244 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,068 0,110 0,146 0,176 0,200 0,221 0,238 0,253 0,277 0,296 0, ,950 5,591 4,737 4,347 4,120 3,972 3,866 3,787 3,726 3,677 3,637 3,575 3,529 3,494 0,975 8,073 6,542 5,890 5,523 5,285 5,119 4,995 4,899 4,823 4,761 4,666 4,596 4,543 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,069 0,111 0,148 0,179 0,204 0,226 0,244 0,259 0,285 0,304 0, ,950 5,318 4,459 4,066 3,838 3,687 3,581 3,500 3,438 3,388 3,347 3,284 3,237 3,202 0,975 7,571 6,059 5,416 5,053 4,817 4,652 4,529 4,433 4,357 4,295 4,200 4,130 4,076 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,069 0,112 0,150 0,181 0,207 0,230 0,248 0,265 0,291 0,312 0, ,950 5,117 4,256 3,863 3,633 3,482 3,374 3,293 3,230 3,179 3,137 3,073 3,025 2,989 0,975 7,209 5,715 5,078 4,718 4,484 4,320 4,197 4,102 4,026 3,964 3,868 3,798 3,744 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,069 0,113 0,151 0,183 0,210 0,233 0,252 0,269 0,296 0,318 0, ,950 4,965 4,103 3,708 3,478 3,326 3,217 3,135 3,072 3,020 2,978 2,913 2,865 2,828 0,975 6,937 5,456 4,826 4,468 4,236 4,072 3,950 3,855 3,779 3,717 3,621 3,550 3,496 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,070 0,114 0,153 0,186 0,214 0,238 0,259 0,276 0,305 0,328 0, ,950 4,747 3,885 3,490 3,259 3,106 2,996 2,913 2,849 2,796 2,753 2,687 2,637 2,599 0,975 6,554 5,096 4,474 4,121 3,891 3,728 3,607 3,512 3,436 3,374 3,277 3,206 3,152 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,070 0,115 0,155 0,189 0,218 0,242 0,263 0,282 0,312 0,336 0, ,950 4,600 3,739 3,344 3,112 2,958 2,848 2,764 2,699 2,646 2,602 2,534 2,484 2,445 0,975 6,298 4,857 4,242 3,892 3,663 3,501 3,380 3,285 3,209 3,147 3,050 2,979 2,923 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,070 0,116 0,156 0,191 0,220 0,245 0,267 0,286 0,317 0,342 0, ,950 4,494 3,634 3,239 3,007 2,852 2,741 2,657 2,591 2,538 2,494 2,425 2,373 2,333 0,975 6,115 4,687 4,077 3,729 3,502 3,341 3,219 3,125 3,049 2,986 2,889 2,817 2,761 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,070 0,116 0,157 0,192 0,222 0,248 0,270 0,290 0,322 0,347 0, ,950 4,414 3,555 3,160 2,928 2,773 2,661 2,577 2,510 2,456 2,412 2,342 2,290 2,250 0,975 5,978 4,560 3,954 3,608 3,382 3,221 3,100 3,005 2,929 2,866 2,769 2,696 2,640 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,071 0,117 0,158 0,193 0,224 0,250 0,273 0,293 0,325 0,352 0, ,950 4,351 3,493 3,098 2,866 2,711 2,599 2,514 2,447 2,393 2,348 2,278 2,225 2,184 0,975 5,871 4,461 3,859 3,515 3,289 3,128 3,007 2,913 2,837 2,774 2,676 2,603 2,547 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,071 0,118 0,161 0,197 0,229 0,257 0,281 0,302 0,337 0,366 0, ,950 4,171 3,316 2,922 2,690 2,534 2,421 2,334 2,266 2,211 2,165 2,092 2,037 1,995 0,975 5,568 4,182 3,589 3,250 3,026 2,867 2,746 2,651 2,575 2,511 2,412 2,338 2,280 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,071 0,119 0,162 0,200 0,232 0,260 0,285 0,307 0,344 0,374 0, ,950 4,085 3,232 2,839 2,606 2,449 2,336 2,249 2,180 2,124 2,077 2,003 1,948 1,904 0,975 5,424 4,051 3,463 3,126 2,904 2,744 2,624 2,529 2,452 2,388 2,288 2,213 2,154 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,071 0,119 0,163 0,201 0,234 0,263 0,288 0,310 0,348 0,379 0, ,950 4,034 3,183 2,790 2,557 2,400 2,286 2,199 2,130 2,073 2,026 1,952 1,895 1,850 0,975 5,340 3,975 3,390 3,054 2,833 2,674 2,553 2,458 2,381 2,317 2,216 2,140 2,081 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,072 0,120 0,164 0,202 0,236 0,265 0,291 0,314 0,353 0,385 0, ,950 3,978 3,128 2,736 2,503 2,346 2,231 2,143 2,074 2,017 1,969 1,893 1,836 1,790 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,072 0,120 0,164 0,202 0,236 0,265 0,291 0,314 0,353 0,385 0,412 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,072 0,120 0,164 0,203 0,237 0,266 0,292 0,316 0,355 0,387 0, ,950 3,960 3,111 2,719 2,486 2,329 2,214 2,126 2,056 1,999 1,951 1,875 1,817 1,772 0,975 5,218 3,864 3,284 2,950 2,730 2,571 2,450 2,355 2,277 2,213 2,111 2,035 1,974 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,072 0,120 0,164 0,203 0,237 0,267 0,293 0,316 0,356 0,389 0, ,950 3,947 3,098 2,706 2,473 2,316 2,201 2,113 2,043 1,986 1,938 1,861 1,803 1,757 0,975 5,196 3,844 3,265 2,932 2,711 2,552 2,432 2,336 2,259 2,194 2,092 2,015 1,955 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,072 0,120 0,164 0,203 0,238 0,267 0,294 0,317 0,357 0,390 0, ,950 3,936 3,087 2,696 2,463 2,305 2,191 2,103 2,032 1,975 1,927 1,850 1,792 1,746 0,975 5,179 3,828 3,250 2,917 2,696 2,537 2,417 2,321 2,244 2,179 2,077 2,000 1,939 0,025 0,001 0,025 0,072 0,121 0,165 0,205 0,239 0,270 0,297 0,321 0,362 0,396 0, ,950 3,888 3,041 2,650 2,417 2,259 2,144 2,056 1,985 1,927 1,878 1,801 1,742 1,694 0,975 5,100 3,758 3,182 2,850 2,630 2,472 2,351 2,256 2,178 2,113 2,010 1,932 1,870 Exemplo: P(F (n,m) 4,10)=0,95 para n=2 e m=10 8/9
9 SCRATCH 9/9
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