The Risk Evaluation of Venture Capital Based on Set-Value Statistics

Transcription

1 The Rs Evalato of Vetre Captal Base o Set-Vale Statstcs Ha Shrog School of Ecoomcs a MaagemetTa Ya Uversty of Scece a Techology P.R.Cha 0004 Abstract: Set-vale statstcs s a poplarzato of Classc Statstcs a Fzzy Statstcs whch ca effectvely process certaty formato. Amg at the specalty of certte a hgh rs of vetre vestmet ths paper a ew metho of rs evalato of vetre captal base o set-vale statstc s pt forwar whe certaty a vageess are tae to accot expert s jgemet A the egree of creblty of jgemet s also researche. Emprcal aalyss shows that the propose metho ca effectvely evalates rs a proves the theoretcal ecso spport for vetre captal compay. Key wors: vetre captal rs evalato set-vale statstcs Itrocto Vetre captal has playe a mportat role the evelopmet of ecoomy. However vetre captal s hghly rsy that vetre captal s targete for small & mem a hgh sc-tech bsess wth certates every stage. Therefore scetfc rs evalato of vetre captal mst be establshe to garatee the effectve vestmet. I practce the tratoal ways of rs evalato ca ot accrately evalate the rs of vetre captal owg to the certa a qaltatve formato the rs evalato ths mag t rget to f a ew way of rs evalato. Base o comparso of the tratoal ways of rs evalato the paper pts forwar a ew moel of rs evalato of vetre captal base set-vale statstcs. The lmtato of the preset rs evalato ways of vetre captal. Aalytc herarchy process AHPAalytc Herarchy Process maes the aalyss by a moel of mlthcrarchy aalss strctre. The lmtato of ths moel s show the followg [] : It s ffclt that the metho calls for the ecso-maer accrately erstas the rs problem; The ex weght s ece by the prevos experece whch may mot be objectve owg to the lac of smlar ata for comparso.. Fzzy evalato metho Fzzy evalato metho s se fzzy system to eal wth fzzy formato whch mae qattve aalyss of the fzzy cocept. Bt t has some lmtatos [] :It s ffclt to choose the rght membershp fctos a a wrog choce may lea to error eve mstae to the evalato reslts;the repeat of the evalato formato resltg from the terrelate exes ca ot be avoe;it s ffclt the ex weght whch s sbjectvely eterme accrately reflect the fact.. Grey comprehesve evalato metho Grey comprehesve evalato metho maes the evalato wth a mlt-factor grey evalato moel [] The evalato reslt of ths metho s better tha the reslts mae by above metoe methos that ths methos s accorece wth the rs characters of vetre captal. However ths metho ca ot effectvely eal wth the certates. As a reslt the experts ca ot tae all the factors the rs evalato to fll coserato e to the lmte owlege a experece ths regar..4 Artfcal eral etwor The avatage of artfcal eral etwor les ts precse jgemet a aalyss of the complex problem as well as ts applcato vale. It also has some lmtatos [4] : The reslt s har to expla a t sally fals to offer a practcal physcal meag;ann calls for a staar procere whch compare wth other moels taes more tmes to evelop. I smmary wth these evalato methos experts are reqre to gve the evalato vale for every factors whle realty experts may fal to mae correct jgemet abot every factor the evalato owg to the complexty a certaty of the objectve factor a the lmtato 490

2 49 owlege a experece cocere. I ths regar base o a aalyss of the lmtatos of these methos as well as the hgh rs of vetre captal ths paper pts forwar a moel whch apples set-vale statstcs to the rs evalato of vetre captal. Set-vale statstcs theory Set-vale statstcs was pt forwar by professor Wag pezhag [5] whch ca effectvely process certaty formato. Sppose the evalato sample set s exes set s V a experts set s S. The expert s s S mgves a terval estmato to a sample ex v v V m. The escrpto of the theory s show the followg: For the evalato of v eotes the -th exof the sample x the evalato terval gve by s eotes the -th experts [ ].f terals are spermpose a strbto covere the evalato vale axs s forme the sample projecte fcto s [ ] Thereto [ ] < < 0 or. Let max m L L the evalato of v s By a we have [ ] [ ] The [ ] [ ]. 4 It ca be easly see that the certa ecso ca be avoe a varos opos ca also be gathere by the applcato of ths metho ths the raom error of the experts evalato ca be mmze to a certa egree. Whe the strbto of the evalato terval s more clstere wth a crve shape t shows the experts all share the same opo a are more cofet of the evalato; O the cotrary a less clstere terval wth a flat shape shows the vergece ther opo. More mportatly wth set-vale statstcs the formato the process of jgemet by the experts ca be aalyse to ow the egree to whch the experts are cofet abot the ex vale. Therefore a ew ex s assge to escrbe the vergece of the evalato of the experts. Defto the projecte screte egree of freqecy coverg whch s forme by the spermpose evalato terval of v s g eotes specalst opo evato a t s g 5 By a we have [ ] [ ] g. 6 4 A moel of the rs evalato of vetre captal base o set-vale statstcs 4. The establshmet of the rs evalato ex system The ex system s establshe terms of the cotets characterstcs a flece factors of the vetre captal a scetfc systematc comparable a practcal way base o the ex system of rs evalato se home a abroa as show table [4-7].v stas for grae I ex- techology rs a v for grae II ex-techology matrato. The followg symbols wll go the way. 4. The establshmet of the ex evalato vale I the process of evalato the expert ofte express ther estmato way of approxmately a betwee A a B e to the certates complextes a yamc of the rs tself as well as ther lmte owlege a experece. Whle the terval vale ca serve the prpose of escrbg the certates a ambgtes the rs. If [r j r j ] s the evalato terval of v j by s the terval

3 vale of r j a r j s betwee [0] the the larger mber ths terval shows a hgh rs whle a small mber shows a lower rs. N tervals gve by experts ca form a set-vale statstcs seqece as [r j r j ][r j r j ] [r j r j ].By 4the formla for evalato vale of rs ex. r j [ rj rj ] [ rj rj ] 7 Where the exes ca be calclate precsely a qattve way for all experts: r j r j the egefcto s follows: rj rj 0 rj rj e rj r j e e e e +. 0 rj rj rj r j 0.5 rj rj The 7 chages to: r [ r e r ] [ r e r ] j j j j j. 8 Let R eotes the set of the ex evalato vale. Table Rs Evalato Iex System Grae I ex Grae II ex Techology rsv Techology matrato v Techology sablty v Techology ecessaryv Techology lfe cyclev 4 Maret rsv Procto compettov Sellg capabltyv Maret prospectv Maagemet rsv Sperteets qalty a experecev The Rs Decso scetfc stylev Eterprse maagemet ratoaltyv Evalato Procto rsv 4 Procto eqpmet levelv 4 procto persoel costttov 4 of Vetre raw materal spplyv 4 CaptalV R&D rsv 5 Theory base ratoaltyv 5 Persoel resorcesv 5 Iformato resorcesv 5 R&D cotosv 54 Evromet Rs v 6 Polcy a laws rsv 6 Macro-ecoomc wavg rsv 6 Socal rsv 6 Captal maret rsv 64 Ext rsv The cofece egree of the ex evalato vale Wth the above metoe evalato methos ot oly ca the correct evalato be avoe bt also varos opos ca be collecte ths the raom error the evalato ca be mmze. More mportatly the evergecy the estmato of the ex vale ca be got by mag se of the formato the process of evalato. Accorg to 6 a 8 we have g r r r r r e r 9 j [ ] [ ] j j j j j g j eotes the screte egree of the ex evalato vale.a small vale of the screte egree wth the evalato vale cetere aro the relts shows the formty of experts opo a a sccessfl hale of the exes. Especally f the exes ca be clstere o oe pot the screte egree of the cocere vale s 0; By cotrast the larger g j s the more sperse the evalato vale wll be whch cates screte egree evalato. Therefore the evalato vale s ot so creble a effectve. I the way b j s assge as the cofece egree of the ex evalato vale as the followg: b j /+g. 0 Obvosly the larger the g j s the smaller the b j wll be whch shows a small screte egree to whch the experts are cofet of the rs evalato. 4.4 Weght etermato of the evalato exes I the ex system each ex plays fferet role so fferet weght shol be attache to fferet ex whe measrg the cotrbtos of each ex. I ths paper the set-vale statstcs wll be se to calclate the weght of each ex whch the weght of grae I ex wll be ece by the mportace of ex. The more mportat the ex s the more weght t wll be attache to. If [h h ] s the terval estmato of the weght of grae I ex v the vale of h a h s [0] wth h beg the mmm weght vale a h the maxmm weght vale. By 4 we have: [ h h ] [ h h ] j ω 49

4 m ω ω ω Theω eotes the evalato vale of the weght of grae I ex v a m eotes the mber of the grae I exes. Accorg to the same prcples ω j the weght evalato vale of grae II ex v j flecg grae I ex v ca be got so the weght of the v j to geeral object that t s rs evalato of vetre captal s: w j ω ω j W eotes the weght set. 4.5 The comprehesve evalato of the vetre captal rs The formla for the comprehesve evalato of the vetre captal rs s V R W.The vale of rs evalato vale below 0. shows a lower rs; the vale of rs evalato vale betwee 0.~ 0.4 shows a low rs; the vale of rs evalato vale betwee 0.4~0.6 shows a average rs; the vale of rs evalato vale hgh tha 0.6 shows a hgh rs. Therefore the fal rs evalato vale rage from 0 to a a lower vale shows a lower rs. 5 Emprcal research Te experts are vte to evalate the rs of a vetre captal project. The weght evalato terval [h h ] of grae I ex a the calclato reslts ω are show table. The weght evalato terval [h j h j ] of grae II ex a the calclato reslts w j are show table. The evalato terval [r j r j ] of the rs ex a the calclato reslts r j are show table 4. Table The Weght Evalato of Grae I Iex S S S S 4 S 5 S 6 S 7 S 8 S 9 S 0 ω v [0.50.6] [0.40.7] [0.40.5] [0.70.9] [0.60.7] [0.40.6] [0.40.6] [0.50.6] [0.40.5] [0.40.6] 0.94 v [0.70.9] [0.80.9] [0.70.6] [0.60.7] [0.50.6] [0.80.7] [0.60.8] [0.50.7] [0.70.8] [0.60.8] 0.44 v [0.40.6] [0.50.8] [0.50.6] [0.40.6] [0.60.7] [0.50.8] [0.0.6] [0.40.6] [0.0.5] [0.0.] 0.78 v 4 [0.0.4] [0.40.6] [0.0.] [0.50.6] [0.0.5] [0.0.5] [0.0.4] [0.60.7] [0.40.6] [0.0.5] 0.44 v 5 [0.40.6] [0.0.4] [0.50.6] [0.0.7] [0.40.6] [0.0.6] [0.0.4] [0.0.4] [0.40.5] [0.0.] 0.45 v 6 [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.40.5] [0.0.4] [0.0.4] [0.0.] [0.0.] Table The Weght Evalato of Grae II Iex S S S S 4 S 5 S 6 S 7 S 8 S 9 S 0 w j v [0.0.4] [0.40.5] [0.0.5] [0.40.6] [0.0.4] [0.40.6] [0.50.6] [0.40.6] [0.0.5] [0.40.6] v [0.40.6] [0.0.5] [0.40.5] [0.50.6] [0.50.7] [0.0.5] [0.0.4] [0.0.5] [0.40.6] [0.0.6] 0.04 v [0.50.8] [0.40.6] [0.50.7] [0.40.7] [0.40.5] [0.50.6] [0.40.7] [0.60.8] [0.60.7] [0.40.6] 0.05 v 4 [0.80.9] [0.70.8] [0.70.9] [0.60.8] [0.50.8] [0.60.7] [0.60.8] [0.50.7] [0.50.6] [0.60.7] 0.06 v [0.70.9] [0.80.9] [0.60.8] [0.50.7] [0.60.9] [0.50.8] [0.70.9] [0.60.8] [0.70.9] [0.80.9] 0.08 v [0.60.7] [0.70.8] [0.60.8] [0.50.7] [0.60.7] [0.70.8] [0.50.7] [0.60.7] [0.70.8] [0.70.8] v [0.80.9] [0.70.9] [0.70.8] [0.60.8] [0.60.9] [0.80.9] [0.60.7] [0.60.9] [0.70.9] [0.80.9] v [0.70.9] [0.70.8] [0.60.9] [0.70.9] [0.60.8] [0.50.7] [0.50.6] [0.60.7] [0.80.9] [0.70.9] v [0.60.8] [0.50.7] [0.40.6] [0.50.6] [0.60.7] [0.50.8] [0.60.7] [0.50.6] [0.50.7] [0.40.7] v [0.60.7] [0.60.7] [0.40.8] [0.50.7] [0.60.7] [0.40.6] [0.50.6] [0.70.8] [0.50.8] [0.70.8] v 4 [0.40.5] [0.0.5] [0.40.5] [0.50.6] [0.70.8] [0.0.5] [0.40.5] [0.40.6] [0.0.4] [0.40.5] v 4 [0.50.6] [0.60.7] [0.40.5] [0.50.6] [0.0.5] [0.0.5] [0.0.4] [0.0.6] [0.40.5] [0.0.4] 0.04 v 4 [0.60.7] [0.70.8] [0.40.6] [0.40.7] [0.60.7] [0.50.7] [0.60.7] [0.40.5] [0.40.6] [0.50.6] v 5 [0.40.5] [0.50.7] [0.40.6] [0.50.6] [0.40.7] [0.0.6] [0.50.8] [0.40.6] [0.50.6] [0.40.7] 0.0 v 5 [0.80.9] [0.80.9] [0.70.8] [0.70.9] [0.60.8] [0.60.9] [0.70.9] [0.70.9] [0.80.9] [0.70.8] v 5 [0.50.6] [0.40.6] [0.40.5] [0.50.7] [0.50.6] [0.40.6] [0.0.6] [0.0.5] [0.60.7] [0.50.7] 0.0 v 54 [0.60.8] [0.70.8] [0.70.9] [0.50.8] [0.50.7] [0.60.8] [0.60.7] [0.80.9] [0.70.8] [0.60.8] 0.0 v 6 [0.50.7] [0.40.6] [0.60.7] [0.60.8] [0.40.5] [0.50.6] [0.40.6] [0.0.5] [0.40.7] [0.60.7] 0.0 v 6 [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.0.5] [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.40.6] [0.40.5] [0.0.4] [0.0.5] 0.0 v 6 [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.5] [0.0.6] [0.0.4] [0.40.5] [0.0.6] [0.0.4] [0.0.] 0.0 v 64 [0.50.8] [0.60.7] [0.80.9] [0.70.7] [0.40.8] [0.50.7] [0.60.9] [0.60.8] [0.40.7] [0.70.9] 0.05 v 65 [0.70.8] [0.70.9] [0.60.8] [0.40.8] [0.50.7] [0.60.9] [0.80.9] [0.70.8] [0.40.7] [0.50.7] 0.05 As s show by these ata the cofece egree of the rs factors s larger tha 0.96 whch 49

5 cates the formty ther jgemet a the experts are more cofet abot the rs egree. The comprehesve evalato vale of the rs of the vetre captal project s whch shows the rs s average. Table 4 The Rs Evalato of the Rs Iex S S S S 4 S 5 S 6 S 7 S 8 S 9 S 0 r j b j w j v [0.0.5] [0.0.4][0.0.4] [0.50.7] [0.0.4] [0.50.6] [0.60.8] [0.40.6] [0.0.4] [0.50.7] v [0.0.] [0.50.7][0.0.6] [0.40.6] [0.0.4] [0.0.5] [0.0.5] [0.0.] [0.40.6] [0.0.5] v [0.40.6] [0.0.5][0.0.6] [0.0.5] [0.0.4] [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.0.4] [0.0.] [0.40.6] v 4 [0.80.9] [0.70.9][0.50.8] [0.60.9] [0.70.9] [0.80.9] [0.40.8] [0.50.7] [0.40.7] [0.70.9] v [0.50.7] [0.40.7][0.40.6] [0.40.5] [0.50.7] [0.60.8] [0.0.6] [0.40.7] [0.60.7] [0.70.9] v [0.70.9] [0.60.9][0.80.9] [0.60.8] [0.40.7] [0.50.8] [0.40.6] [0.50.6] [0.70.8] [0.60.8] v [0.60.8] [0.60.9][0.70.9] [0.60.8] [0.50.6] [0.60.8] [0.60.9] [0.80.9] [0.70.9] [0.70.8] v [0.60.8] [0.70.9][0.80.9] [0.50.8] [0.60.8] [0.60.7] [0.80.9] [0.60.7] [0.0.6] [0.0.5] v [0.40.6] [0.80.9][0.40.7] [0.0.5] [0.0.6] [0.0.] [0.60.8] [0.0.6] [0.40.5] [0.0.] v [0.60.7] [0.40.6][0.50.6] [0.40.6] [0.50.6] [0.70.8] [0.0.5] [0.40.8] [0.70.8] [0.60.7] v 4 [0.0.5] [0.0.][0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.0.4] [0.0.4] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] v 4 [0.0.] [0.0.][0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] v 4 [0.40.6] [0.0.6][0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.0.4] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.4] v 5 [0.0.5] [0.0.4][0.0.4] [0.0.4] [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.0.5] [0.0.5] [0.0.] [0.0.] v 5 [0.40.5] [0.60.7][0.50.6] [0.60.8] [0.40.6] [0.0.5] [0.40.5] [0.50.6] [0.50.7] [0.40.6] v 5 [0.0.4] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.0.5] [0.0.4] v 54 [0.0.4] [0.60.8][0.0.5] [0.40.6] [0.50.6] [0.0.4] [0.40.6] [0.0.] [0.0.6] [0.40.5] v 6 [0.50.7] [0.0.][0.0.5] [0.0.6] [0.0.4] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.0.] [0.0.] v 6 [0.0.] [0.0.5][0.0.4] [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.0.5] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.0.6] v 6 [0.0.5] [0.50.7][0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.0.4] v 64 [0.0.4] [0.0.][0.0.5] [0.0.] [0.0.4] [0.0.] [0.0.6] [0.0.4] [0.40.6] [0.60.8] v 65 [0.60.8] [0.40.6][0.40.5] [0.0.] [0.0.5] [0.0.6] [0.0.7] [0.40.6] [0.40.5] [0.50.7] Coclso Base o set-vale statstcs theory Ths paper establshs the rs evalato moel of vetre captal a pts forwar a metho by whch the vale of the rs evalato exes a ther correspog weght ca be set a the evalato of the exes represetg the same evalato meag whle varyg terval evalato vale ca be ealt wth a sesble way. Ths more correspoet wth hma thg patter ths moel offers a ew way for rs maagemet wth ts more objectve relable reslts a the avoace of the lmtatos of the tratoal rs maagemet. Of corse as a ew evalato metho ths moel stll leaves beh a lot of qestos worth or researchg sch as we applcato emprcal sty a ts relatoshp wth other evalato methos. Refereces []Pa Qg Ha. revew of methos o rs vestmet mag. Iqry Ito Ecoomc Problems 00 0:77-78 []Zhao Cag.The sty of comprehesve evalato o the vestmet rs of rs vestmet projects. Statstcal Research00:0- []Tag Wa Me. A research of mltherarchy sythetc evalato base o the gray relato aalyss.systems Egeerg Theory & Practce0066:5-9 [4]Lag Jg pg. Evalato Rs Qatfyg Moel o Vetre Captal Project. Statstcs a Cosel g006:0- [5]Lo ao fag. Fzzy sythetc evalato base o set-vale statstcs a ts applcato. Mathemaecs Practce a Theory0059:4-4 [6]C We Fag. Rs evalato moel of hgh sc-tech agrcltre projects base o ANN. Joral of Northwest Sc-Tech Uversty of Agrcltre a Forestry0067:60-6 [7]Che Y Fe. Dscsso o rss evalato for project vestmet base o eral etwor system. Techo-ecoomcs I Petrochemcals0066: