Prediction of Random Effects and Effects of Misspecification of Their Distribution

Transcription

1 Predcton of Random Effects and Effects of Msspecfcaton of Ther Dstruton Charles E. McCulloch and John Neuhaus Dvson of Bostatstcs, Department of Epdemology and Bostatstcs Unversty of Calforna, San Francsco West Coast Stata Users Group Meetng, Octoer 007

2 Outlne 1) Introducton and motvatng examples ) Predcton of random effects a) Are parametrc assumptons mportant? 3) Bref revew of effects of msspecfcaton (more generally) n mxed models 4) Theoretcal calculatons (Lnear Mxed Model) 5) Theoretcal calculatons (Bnary Matched Pars) 6) Smulatons (Lnear Mxed Model) 7) Example: Hormone and Estrogen Replacement Study 8) Summary

3 1. Introducton: Examples Example 1: Measurng cogntve declne n elderly women (Women Who Mantan Optmal Cogntve Functon nto Old Age. Barnes DE, Cauley JA, Lu L-Y, Fnk HA, McCulloch CE, Stone KL, Yaffe K. J Amer Geratcs Soc, 007). A modfed Mn-Mental status examnaton was gven at aselne and years 6, 8, 10 and 15 n a prospectve cohort study (Study of Osteoporotc Fractures). Whch partcpants are thought to e n mental declne and what predcts that declne?

4 Example : Effect of pre-hypertenson at an early age n the CARDIA study. (Prehypertenson Durng Young Adulthood and Presence of Coronary Calcum Later n Lfe: The Coronary Artery Rsk Development In Young Adults (CARDIA) Study. MJ Pletcher, K Bns-Domngo, CE Lews, G We, S Sdney, JJ Carr, E Vttnghoff, CE McCulloch, SB Hulley, sumtted). Blood pressure measured every fve years snce How to approxmate prevous and cumulatve lood pressure exposure?

5 Example 3: Predctng those at rsk for developng hgh lood pressure n HERS (The Heart and Estrogen Replacement Study - Hulley, et al, J. Amercan Medcal Assocaton, 1998). HERS was a randomzed, lnded, placeo controlled tral for women wth prevous coronary dsease. We wll use t as a prospectve cohort study for predcton of hgh lood pressure.,763 women were enrolled and followed yearly for 5 susequent vsts. We wll consder only the suset that were not daetc and wth systolc lood pressure less than 140 at the egnnng of the study.

6 ε. Mxed models and predcton of random effects One way to address the questons aove s to utlze mxed models and derve predcted values of the random effects. Example 1: (cogntve declne): MMSE 0 1 ~ calculate t 1 = = cogntve measure for partcpant 0 + ~ ndep. 1 t + covarates + β 0 N β1 σ, σ σ t σ, = predcted declne for partcpant. at tme t

7 Some realstc ut made up data:. tale vst, c(mean mmse n mmse sd mmse) vst mean(mmse) N(mmse) sd(mmse) , , , , , So lttle change n average MMSE over tme.

8 x: xtmxed mmse vst exercse avgdrpwk pptd: vst, cov(uns) Performng EM optmzaton: Performng gradent-ased optmzaton: Iteraton 0: log restrcted-lkelhood = Iteraton 1: log restrcted-lkelhood = Iteraton : log restrcted-lkelhood = Computng standard errors: Mxed-effects REML regresson Numer of os = 9110 Group varale: pptd Numer of groups = 03 Os per group: mn = 1 avg = 4.5 max = 6 Wald ch(3) = 7.4 Log restr-lkelhood = Pro > ch =

9 mmse Coef. Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Interval] vst exercse avgdrpwk _cons Random-effects Parameters Estmate Std.Err. [95% Conf.Interval] pptd: Unstructured sd(vst) sd(_cons) corr(vst,_cons) sd(resdual) LR test vs. ln regresson: ch(3) = Pro > ch = 0.000

10 . predct rslopedev rntdev, reffects. gen predslope=_[vst]+rslopedev. collapse rslopedev rntdev predslope, y(pptd). gen deltammse=6*predslope. summarze Varale Os Mean Std. Dev. Mn Max pptd rslopedev e rntdev e predslope deltammse summarze deltammse predslope f deltammse<- Varale Os Mean Std. Dev. Mn Max deltammse predslope

11 ε Example : (pre-hypertenson): BP t = = ( splne terms) ~ ndep. N(, ) lood pressure for partcpant splne ( t) + covarates + calculate predcted splne for partcpant. t, at tme t The area under the predcted lood pressure trajectory etween 10 and 140 mmhg was ntegrated over tme as a cumulatve prehypertenson exposure (n years of mmhg). Ths was then used as a predctor of coronary calcfcaton.

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13 ε Example 3: (hgh lood pressure): BP t logt( P{ BP t = 1f = 1}) lood pressure s hgh for suject = 0 + covarates + t, at tme t, and 0 o/w ~ calculate 0 0 ~..d. N ( ) β, σ 0 = predcted ntercept for partcpant. Predcted values of random effects avalale from gllamm or the new (Ver 10) multlevel logt command xtmelogt

14 The xtmxed, xtmelogt, xt-etc. and gllamm commands ft the models usng regular or restrcted maxmum lkelhood. So they use a parametrc assumpton for oth the dstruton of the outcome and the dstruton of the random effects, the latter typcally that the dstrutons are normal. Key queston: Is the parametrc assumpton of the random effects dstruton mportant? Ths s especally crucal snce we don t get to drectly oserve the random effects. Unfortunately, the predcted random effects may not reflect the shape of the underlyng dstruton. (More on ths pont later).

15 3. Revew of mpact of msspecfcaton n mxed models A numer of nvestgatons have focused on the effect of msspecfcatons n parametrc mxed models. They can e grouped as: 1. Gettng the dstrutonal shape wrong.. Falsely assumng the random effect s ndependent of the cluster sze. 3. Falsely assumng the random effect s ndependent of covarates, e.g., a. Mean of random effects dstruton could e assocated wth a covarate..varance of random effects dstruton could e assocated wth a covarate.

16 Most nvestgatons have concentrated on the mpact on estmaton of the fxed effects porton of the model. General assessment: 1) Gettng the dstrutonal shape wrong has lttle mpact on nferences aout the fxed effects. ) Incorrectly assumng the random effects dstruton s ndependent of the cluster sze may affect nferences aout the ntercept, ut does not serously mpact nferences aout the regresson parameters. 3) However, assumng the random effects dstruton s ndependent of the covarates when t s not s potentally serous. (Related to mean: Neuhaus and McCulloch, JRSSB, 006; related to the varance: Heagerty and Kurland, Bometrka, 001).

17 What aout nference aout the predctons of the random effects? We ll concentrate on the ssue of wrong dstrutonal shape, where fxed effects nferences seem largely unaffected. Intuton: the assumed form of the random effects dstruton may e a more crucal assumpton n ths case.

18 ε ε ε 4. Theoretcal calculatons (Lnear Mxed Model) Frst consder an easy stuaton. Assumed model s a one-way random effects model wth known ntercept and varance components and normally dstruted random effects: Y t t = µ + +, t = 1, K, n ; = 1, K, q ~..d. N ~..d. N t ( ) 0, σ ( ) 0, σ ε t, µ, σε,and σ known In whch case the Best Lnear Unased Predctor s gven y ~ σ = ( Y µ ) σ + σε / n

19 Wrtng ths out: ( ) ( ) ( ) + + = = + = n n Y n ε σ σ σ µ ε µ σ σ σ µ σ σ σ ε ε ε / / / ~

20 Condtonal on, the Y t are ndependent N ( µ +, σ ε ). So ~ ~ ε σ = σ N µ ~, σ + σ / n n ε and ~ s condtonally ased. Snce the calculatons are condtonal on, results do not depend on the dstruton of the and so the condtonal as does not depend on the dstruton.

21 ~ σ = σ + σε / n σ σ ( + ε ) ( + 0) = as n So ~ converges n proalty to the true value as n. But asymptotc calculatons as n are not usually of nterest for a random effects model.

22 What does the dstruton of the ~ look lke? And what f the assumpton of normalty for the s ncorrect,.e., not normal? If n s large then each ~ s close to and hence the dstruton s approxmately correct. But what aout the case when n s not large, the usual case of nterest? Then the dstruton of ~ s the convoluton of the true densty wth the condtonal densty of ~ gven.

23 For example, suppose the true densty s exponental(1), shfted to have mean 0. Then the densty of ~ s gven y exp 0 { ~ } ~ ( ~ ) n /( ) exp( 1) d ~ µ, σ ε whch s straghtforward to evaluate numercally:

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31 ε ε ε What s the BLUP under the exponental assumpton? Model: Y t t t = µ + ~..d. σ ~..d. N +, t ( E(1) 1) ( ) 0, σ ε t ε = 1, K, n ; µ, σ, and σ ; known = 1, K, q n σ ε. σ nσ Defne = ( Y µ + σ ) ε

32 Then ~ = Y ε σ ( ) ε φ σ µ +, nσ Φ( ) n where φ (t) and Φ (t) are the standard normal p.d.f. and c.d.f. How do the assumed normal and assumed exponental BLUPs compare?

33 BLUPS Under Dfferent Dstrutonal Assumptons BLUP Average n Cluster Raw devaton Normal Exponental

34 5. Theoretcal calculatons (Bnary matched pars) Assumed model Y logt( p t t ) = ~ Bnomal( p t µ + + βi{ t= } ~..d. N ( ) β, σ 0 ), = 1,..., q; t = 1, Snce there are only 4 data confguratons per cluster there are only four possle values for ~, for a gven set of parameter values. For example, when y 1, ~ t s gven y (wth p( t) = 1/(1 + e )) ~ = y 1 = = φ( ) p( µ + σ ) p( µ + σ + β ) d φ( ) p( µ + σ ) p( µ + σ + β ) d

35 These depend on the assumed dstruton. The proaltes of the four (actually three) values depends on the true dstruton. Proalty Dstruton for BLUPs Proalty Best Predcted Value BLUP assumed normal BLUP true (exponental)

36 It s also straghtforward to calculate the mean square error of predcton usng the assumed and true models under the true model. For example, f the assumed model s normal, ut the true s exponental here are some values of the mean square error of predcton: ~ Mean squared error of predcton MSEP = E[( ) ] wth µ = 0, σ = 1: β Normal (assumed) Exponental (true) Percent ncrease % % % %

37 ε ε ε 6. Smulaton We smulated data from the one-way random model: Y t t = µ + ~..d. N ~..d. N + t, t = 1, K, n ; ( ) 0, σ or ( ) 0,,, σ ε t = 1, K, q ~..d. σ {E(1) 1} wth q = 10 = n and usng the same random numers for oth the normal and exponental random effects (and the same error terms). 10,000 replcatons. An assumed normal model was ft.

38 Smulaton results Estmates of the parameters Normal True Ave SD Ave SE µ ln( σ ε ) ln( σ ) * 0.7 * Exponental µ ln( σ ε ) ln( σ ) * *Excludes one outler

39 Estmates of fxed effects parameters are lttle affected. Estmates of the parameters Normal True Ave SD Ave SE µ ln( σ ε ) ln( σ ) * 0.7 * Exponental µ ln( σ ε ) ln( σ ) * 0.47 * 0.9 * *Excludes one outler

40 As s the estmate of log of the resdual varance. Estmates of the parameters Normal True Ave SD Ave SE µ ln( σ ε ) ln( σ ) * 0.7 * Exponental µ ln( σ ε ) ln( σ ) * 0.47 * 0.9 * *Excludes one outler

41 But the estmate of the random effects varance s off. Estmates of the parameters Normal True Ave SD Ave SE µ ln( σ ε ) ln( σ ) * 0.7 * Exponental µ ln( σ ε ) ln( σ ) * 0.47 * 0.9 * *Excludes one outler

42 Confdence nterval coverage for µ was slghtly lower than nomnal for the normal (9%), and low for the exponental (88%). Mean square error of predcton for the BLUPs was 1.87 for the normal model and 1.84 for the exponental.

43 Do the BLUPs calculated under the assumpton of normalty reflect the true underlyng shape (exponental)? For data smulated wth normally dstruted random effects the average skewness was and the average kurtoss was.50 (wth a normal havng values 0 and 3). For data smulated wth exponentally dstruted random effects the average skewness was 0.85 and the average kurtoss was 3.14 (wth an exponental(1) havng values and 9).

44 7. Example (HERS) Recall the HERS example: We wll consder the 1,378 women who dd not have hgh lood pressure and were not daetc at the aselne vst. We wll use the aselne and vsts 1 through 3 to predct the lood pressure at vsts 4 and 5 and whether or not the woman had developed hgh lood pressure on ether vst 4 or 5. Bref descrptve statstcs: Varale Mean/Percentage SD Age BMI Weght 70.3 kg 13.4 kg On BP meds 79%

45 ε Predctve model (for aselne and vsts 1, and 3): calculate or BP t 0 ~ BP t BP ˆ t = β ~..d. N ˆ ~ = β + + ˆ β MEDS = ˆ β ˆ β MEDS ( ) 0, σ 0 + ˆ β BMI 1 + β BMI + β MEDS + β DM + 1 or + ˆ β BMI ˆ β DM 5 + ˆ β EXER + ˆ β DM 5 + β EXER + β AGE 0, ~..d. σ {E(1) 1} + ˆ β EXER t (mxed model pred) + ˆ β AGE ˆ β AGE 3 (fxed effects only)

46 How well do the predctons work? For predctng the actual systolc lood pressure: Predcton Errors Method Ave Ave as RMSE Fxed effects only Mxed model (normal) Mxed model (exponental) For predctng hgh BP or not: Area under the ROC curve: Fxed effects 0.55, Normal 0.80, Exponental 0.80.

47 Do they gve the same predcted values? No, ut close: Predcton ased on Normal Random Effects Predcton ased on Exponetal Random Effects

48 Here s a plot of the dfference etween the predcted values: Dfference n Normal and Exponental Predctons Mean of SBP n Vsts 1 to 3

49 8. Summary Predcted values of random effects show modest senstvty to the assumed dstrutonal shape. Dstruton shape of BLUPs often not reflectve of true random effects dstruton. The rankng of predcted values s lttle affected. Fttng flexle dstrutonal shapes s an easy way to check senstvty of the results to the assumed shape. I can e contacted at: chuck@ostat.ucsf.edu Talk can e downloaded from my weste, whch can e found y startng at: