Possible Correlation between Solar Activity and Global Seismicity

Transcription

1 Possible Correlation between Solar Activity and Global Seismicity M. H. Jusoh 1, K. Yumoto 1,2 1) Graduate School of Sciences, Kyushu Univ. 2) Space Environment Research Center, Kyushu Univ. 1. Introduction (Sun-Earth Connection) 2. Relation of Global Seismicity to Solar Cycle 3. Relationship of EQ Occurrence with HSSW 4. Relation among EQ Epicenter Depth, Solar Cycle, and HSSW 5. Summary 1/27 ISWI / MAGDAS School, Lagos, Nigeria, August, 2011

2 1. The Scientific Objective of MAGDAS 1) Sun-Earth Coupling a) Solar Radiation Energy MW b) Solar Wind Energy MW c) Cosmic Ray Effect on Atmospheric Cloud 2) Sun-Ionosphere- Lithosphere Coupling SUN a) Solar Radiation Ionization by EUV, X-ray Ionospheric Conductivity σ Magnetosphere Ionospheric Current δb Earth S Wind V Lithos. Induced Current Interplanetary Field b) Solar Wind Atmos. Ionosphere Tidal wind B Earth s Mag. F. 2/27

3 1.2 Sun-Earth Connection Observed by MAGDAS/CPMN Kiyohumi YUMOTO and MAGDAS/CPMN Group, SERC, Kyushu Univ. Content 1. Empirical Sq model by M/C 2. Solar and Lunar currents 3. Sq current in the Ionosphere and induced current in the Litghosphere 4. Conclusion 3/27 Sampling ΔT=10Hz MAG-9 MAGNETOMETER 3/50

4 1.3 Modeling of Sq by MAGDAS Analysis Period: Magnetic Quiet Days: Kp MM Sq Ionospheric Current 21 Stations: (Yumoto et al., 2001) Hourly Value of Horizontal Sq Amplitude: 24 i= H i + D i / 24 4/27

5 1.4 Empirical Sq Model by fitting Least- Squares Method (See Yamazaki et al., J.G.R., 2011, in press) 5/27 S = (d j X j (t j )) 2, where X(t j )=F G H I d j : observed values, X j (t j ): empirical model

6 1.6 Solar and Lunar Eq. Current System F(SA) G(DOY) H(LT) I(LA) Lat[ ] Solar Eq. Current Lat[ ] Lunar Eq. Current Solar Local Time Lunar Age (Local Time) 6/27

7 1.7 Spherical Harmonic Analysis of Sq Variation External contribution Sq variations at Earth s surface Internal contribution M=6 N= m+17 (see Cambel, 1990) 7/27

8 1.8 Sq Currents in the Ionosphere and Lithosphere as a Function of Solar Cycle Activity (F10.7) 210 MM data ( ) 8/27

9 1.9 The Scientific Objective of MAGDAS 1) Sun-Earth Coupling a) Solar Radiation Energy MW b) Solar Wind Energy MW c) Cosmic Ray Effect on Atmospheric Cloud 2) Iono-Atmosphere- Lithosphere Coupling SUN a) Solar Radiation Ionization by EUV, X-ray Ionospheric Conductivity Magnetosphere Ionospheri c Current δb S Wind V 地圏 Earth 誘導電流 Induced Current Interplanetary Field b) Solar Wind Atmos Lithos. Ionosphere Tidal wind B Earth s Mag. F. 9/27

10 2. Relation of Global Seismicity Objectives to Solar Cycle (Activity) To investigate the solar-cycle (activity) dependence of earthquake occurrence for different magnitude. To study which of the earthquake magnitude mostly affected by the solar activity. 10/27

11 2.1.1 Earthquakes with magnitude 8.0 to 9.9 Richter scale Total events: 28 during events (79%) occurred at descending and minimum phase of solar cycles. 2 events 1 event 2 events 6 events 11 events 11/27

12 2.1.2 Earthquakes with magnitude 7.0 to 7.9 Richter scale Total events: 487 during Number of earthquake events show a significant increase during descending and minimum phase of solar cycles(65%) 84 events 100 events 73 events 27 events 28 events 12/27

13 2.1.3 Earthquakes with magnitude 6.0 to 6.9 Richter scale Total events: 4,767 during % of earthquake events occurred during descending and minimum phase of solar cycles events 271 events 632 events 734 events 277 events 13/27

14 2.1.4 Earthquakes with magnitude 5.0 to 5.9 Richter scale Total events: 66,776 during % of earthquake events occurred during descending and minimum phase of solar cycles events 3407 events events 6535 events 7966 events 14/27

15 2.1.5 Earthquakes with magnitude 4.0 to 4.9 Richter scale Total events: 255,567 during % of earthquake events occurred during descending and minimum phase of solar cycles events events 8917 events events events 15/27

16 2.2. Percentage of EQ Occurrence during Different Phases of Solar Cycles 20 to 23 Total Event = 255,567 66,776 4, /27

17 2.3. Occurrence of Great EQs for Solar Cycles and 23 Most of great EQs tend to occur during descending and minimum phase of solar cycles Minimum Phase Ascending Phase Maximum Phase Descending Phase Minimum Phase 17/27

18 3. Relationship of EQ with HSSW To investigate the relationship of earthquake occurrence with high speed solar wind (HSSW) and IMF Electric field at IMF (Interplanetary Magnetic Field). High Speed Solar Wind (HSSW) Solar wind has different origins in the solar coronal; coronal holes (CH) and coronal mass ejections (CME) or both (multiple streams). A HSSW is mainly characterized based on four factors [Lindblad and Lundstedt, 1981; Mavromichalaki, Vassilaki and Marmatsouri, 1988; Mavromichalaki and Vassilaki, 1998; and V. Gupta and Badruddin, 2010]: i. Considerable enhancement in V SW (ΔV SW 100 km/s) ii. High temperature (T in K) iii. High variation of proton density (N in cm -3 ) and iv. High magnitude of IMF (B in nt). 18/27

19 3.1.1 Coronal Hole (CH)- High Speed Solar Wid (HSSW) B Magnitude of IMF T IMF temperature N Proton density reaches its peak before the speed maximum Vsw Plasma speed increases relatively slowly to reach its maximum Ey A typical CH-HSSW (detected on 8 Nov 2008). Observation period is from 1 Nov to 15 Nov /27

20 3.1.2 Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-HSSW B Magnitude of IMF T N Temperature becomes lower after the initial rise during shock Proton density Vsw The speed increases at a faster rate Ey A typical CME-HSSW (detected on 22 Sept 1999). Observation period is from 17 Sept to 26 Sept /27

21 B T Multiple Streams - HSSW First stream Second stream N Vsw Ey A typical HSSW caused by multiple streams (detected on 10 and 11 August 2000). Observation period is from 8 August to 20 August /8/2011 SEE & STP Laboratory Seminar 21/27

22 3.2 High Speed Solar Wind and Great EQs (M=6-9) EQ not related with HSSW EQ on the 30% day of HSSW 9% EQ before HSSW 26% EQ after HSSW 35% 97 events or 26 % of HSSW recorded on the day or 4 days before the great EQ events (M> ). The number of EQ events reach maximum 1 day after the arrival of HSSW. The total amount of EQs that occurred after the HSSW is 35 %. In total, 70 % of EQ events observed during the period within 4 days (before and after) of the arrival of HSSW. 22/27

23 4. Relation among EQ Epicenter Depth, Solar Cycle, and HSSW To investigate the relation of EQs at different depth of epicenter with the solar-cycle phase. To evaluate day-to-day relation of big earthquake events at significant depths of epicenter with high speed solar wind (HSSW) 23/27

24 Inside the Earth Lithosphere: 0 ~ 50 km Crust and upper most solid mantle: 50 ~ 100km Source: Inside the Earth available at 24/27

25 4.1 Occurrences of EQ at Different Depth during SC 20 to Max SC Min SC Number of EQ Event % 17 % Lithosphere layer Upper Mantle layer % 33 % 25 % 0 EQ < 20km EQ 20-40km EQ 40-60km EQ 60-80km EQ km Number of EQs occurred at 0 to 40 km depth during the solar minimum phase, and a few events at deeper-depth from 40 to 100km. 25/27

26 4.2 Dependence of HSSW-related EQ Occurrence on Epicenter Depth Relationship of EQ Onset with HSSW Δevent=91 Number of EQ Event Δevent=107 Δevent=33 Day of HSSW Onset The shallow earthquakes from 0 to 40km show a higher correlation with HSSW on the day to 3 days after the HSSW arrived to the earth, compared to the deep earthquakes. 26/27

27 5. Summary (1) Most of great earthquakes tend to occur during descending and minimum phase of solar cycles. (2) 70 % of the Great EQ events (M=6-9) observed during the period within 4 days (before and after) of the arrival of High Speed Solar Wind (HSSW). (3) Number of EQs occurred at 0 to 40 km depth during the solar minimum phase, and a few events at deeper-depth from 40 to 100km. (4) The shallow earthquakes from 0 to 40km show a higher correlation with HSSW on the day to 3 days after the HSSW arrived to the earth, compared to the deep EQs. Thank You for Attention 27/27