Reconstructing Past Droughts in Texas. Richard Casteel Jay Banner Jackson School of Geosciences Environmental Science Institute
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1 Reconstructing Past Droughts in Texas Richard Casteel Jay Banner Jackson School of Geosciences Environmental Science Institute
2 Texas climate Outline Present and past droughts Drought reconstructions: Tree rings Hot vs. dry droughts Temperature reconstructions: Stalagmites
3 1. Temperature 2. Rainfall 3. Soil moisture PDSI
4
5 Tree rings High resolution: Annual PDSI reconstruction PDSI reconstruction of the last 500 years 012/07/articles/t How severe and protracted were past droughts?
6 Climate regions of Texas (Cleaveland et al., 2011)
7
8 Bald Cypress
9 Biggest tree in Texas
10 Tree core extraction
11 Bald cypress tree core 1 mm
12 Central Texas drought history Calibrate tree rings to instrumental PDSI record Measure tree rings to reconstruct PDSI Severe drought At least once a century since 1500s (Cleaveland et al., 2011)
13 Triggers and sustaining mechanisms of drought in SW US Two types in the SW US: 1. Dry droughts Triggered/sustained by lack of rainfall 2. Hot droughts Triggered/sustained by high temperatures (Weiss et al., 2009)
14 Hot vs. dry drought DRY DROUGHT HOT DROUGHT EXAMPLE 1950s 2000s RAINFALL LOWER (74%) HIGHER (86%) TEMPERATURES COOLER WARMER (+1 o C) PDSI LESS NEGATIVE LESS DRY THAN 2000s MORE NEGATIVE DRIER THAN 1950s
15 Tree rings as drought proxies Reconstruct PDSI Temperature Rainfall Soil moisture One component temperature Two components moisture How to separate hot vs. dry droughts?
16 Stalagmites Oxygen isotopes (δ 18 O) as a temperature proxy
17 Westcave Preserve Westcave Preserve Austin
18 Westcave Preserve
19 Westcave: Outside
20 Westcave: Inside
21 Cave drip waters Surface water infiltrates into cave Drip waters precipitate calcite and make stalagmites Place glass plates for drip waters to precipitate calcite on
22 Calcite collection plates Analyze oxygen isotopes of plate calcite
23 Temperature vs. plate calcite oxygen isotopes Temperature ( o C) o C Temperature 31.5 o C 32.3 o C 30.8 o C 29.4 o C 31.4 o C WC-3 plate calcite oxygen isotopes 29.8 o C Calcite oxygen isotopes 1/1/2012 1/1/2011 1/1/2010 1/1/2009 Date 1/1/2008 1/1/2007 1/1/2006 1/1/2005
24 Stalagmite WC-3 younger Oxygen isotopes of the stalagmite Reconstruct temperature older
25 Temperature vs. stalagmite oxygen isotopes Temperature ( o C) o C Temperature 31.5 o C 32.3 o 29.8 o C C 30.8 o C 29.4 o C 31.4 o C WC-3 plate calcite oxygen isotopes WC-3 stalagmite oxygen isotopes Calcite oxygen isotopes 1/1/2012 1/1/2011 1/1/2010 1/1/2009 Date 1/1/2008 1/1/2007 1/1/2006 1/1/2005
26 Climate proxies PDSI (tree rings) Temperature Soil moisture Rainfall Oxygen isotopes (stalagmites) Temperature Dry droughts vs. hot droughts
27 Conclusions Droughts in the past were at least as severe and/or more protracted than the drought of record Increased temperatures can trigger/sustain droughts Possibility of teasing apart temperature from PDSI Occurrence of dry droughts or hot droughts Potential of stalagmites as temperature proxies
28 Acknowledgements Malcolm Cleaveland, University of Arkansas Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority and Todd Votteler Jackson School of Geosciences Environmental Science Institute
29
30 Conclusions Higher temperatures predicted Tease apart hot vs. dry droughts using: Reconstructed PDSI (tree rings) Reconstructed temperature (oxygen isotopes)
31
32 Rainfall Variables that can effect stalagmite geochemistry Temperature How to tell the difference?
33 What are the droughts triggers We only have 2 data points, the 1950s and 2000s. So...
34 We also place plates at drip sites to collect calcite
35 Past is the key to the future
36 Speleothem sample younger U-series dating for age constraints Geochemically analyze samples taken along the growth axis Reconstruct climate older
37 Future climate projection: Increased temperature Rainfall distribution uncertain
38 24,000 years ago Low latitude ice sheets (~39 N) Cooler and wetter -Faunal evidence -Pollen data
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