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1 = = = Q = N OMMU N!"#$% ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol.4, No.1 January, !" (2008) !"#$%&'W=!" NIO N=!"#$%$&'()*+,-./0! =TPMMMMO=!"#$%&'=NMMMUN =!"#$SCAR!"#$%&'AGCS!"#$%!"#$ SASOCS!!"#$ 50 a!"#$%&'()*+,-.100 a!"#$% 50 a!"#$%&'()*+,-./0!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#sam!"#!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'()*!"#!"#$%!"# $%&'()Weddell!"#$%&'()!"#$%&!"# 50 a!"#$%&'()*!"#$%& 20 80!"#$%&'()*+,!!"#$!"#$% 21!"#$%&'() I=!"#$% 30%!!"#$%&'()*+,-./ :;<=>!"#$%!!"!!!"#P532===!"#A = ====!"#$%!"#$!!"#$%&'()!"#$%&%!"#$%!"#$%& CO 2!"#$%&'()*+,-./012!"#$%&'()=!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+,-! ACC!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%& 90%!" I km 2!"!"#$%&'!!"#$%&'()*+,-./!!"#$%&'(=!"#$%&'!"#$%&!"#$%&'()#!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123!"#$%&'()*+,-.)/!"#!"#$%&'()*+,=!""#$%&'()*+!"#$!"#$%&'() N==!"#$%&' NKN==RM=j~=_m=!" ====!"#$%&'()* 34 Ma BP!"#$%&4!!"#$%&! CO 2!"#$%& 14 Ma BP!"#$!"# 1!!2007J11J15=!"2008J01J01 L!"#$%&'GYHY !"#$%&' ; !"#$%&'()* ==========KZCX3-SW-354!"!"#=!! 1969J!!"#$%&'() K= cdxiao@lzb.ac.cn Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (1): 1J7 1

2 = = = 2 =OMMU!"#$%&'()!"#$!"#$%&'()*+!"! 1 Ma BP!"#$%& 9 a!"#$!% NKO==N=j~=_m=!" ====!"#$ L!" #$%&!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'(!"#$ %&'!" Ma BP!"#!"#$%&'()*+,- 8! CO ml/m 3 (ppmv)!"#$%5!"15 10F IPCC!"#$AR4! CO ml/m 3!" 850 ka!"#!"#$ 20 Ma!"#$ ====!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!"#$%&=!"#$%&'()*!!"#$%&'()*%&'(+!"#$=!!"#$%&'(!!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&' Heinrich!"=!"#$%&'!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,-.MOC!"#$%&'(! MOC!"!" MOC! 1000 a NKP==NO=â~ _m=!"# ====!"#$%&'()#$*+,!"#$%&'()*+,-./0=!"#$%&'()* +,!"-./!"#$%&'()*&+,= Ross grounding line 79 ka BP!!"# 3 =!"#$%&'()*+ 79 ka BP!"#$ ka BP!"#$%&'()*=!"#$%!"#$!"#$!"#$%!!"#$% ====!"#$!"#$%!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+!"#$ 5.2 ka BP!"#$%& a BP!"# Amundsen! ====!"8.2 ka BP!"#$%&'(!! ka BP!"#$%!" 1200 a!"#$%&'() ka BP!"#$%& ==== 5.0 ka!"#$%&'()*+, a BP 4!"#$ Amundsen!"#$%&'()*+,-.! Siple!"#$%&'()*!"!"#$%!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'(!"#$%& ====! a BP!"#$LIA!"#$%Maunder! LIA!"#$!"#$%&!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"#$%&'()*+ O==!"#$%& RMOMM ~! ====!"#$%&'()*+,$-./01!"#$%&'()*+,-./0-1!"#$%&'()*+ OKN==! ====!"#$!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*+ Faraday Vernadsky!"0.56/a!"=!" Faraday!"#$% 5!"# Amundsen Bellingshausen!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./0 5!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$!"#$%& ==== 50 a!"#$%&'()*+, 2 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (1): 1J7

3 N!!"#$%&'(!" 3!"#$%! Amundsen-Scott!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'(ITASE!"#!"#$!"#$%&'()* 6 ====!"#$%&'(!"#$%&!"#$%&'(!!" !" m/10 a 90!"#$%&'!"#!" ====!"#$ 30 a!"#$%&!"#$%500 hpa!"#$%&'( /10 a !"# 10 I=!"#$%&' !" OKO==!"# ====!"#$!"#$%&'!"#$%&'!"#$%&!"!"#$!"#$!%&'()*' 3 9!"#$!"#!"#$%&'(!"#$%SAO SAO1970!"#$%&!"# 5 6!"#$% ====!"#$%&'()*+, -. SAM!"#$%AAOSAM!"#$%&'()!"#$%&' SAM!"#$%&'!"#$%&!"#$%=E 35%F!"#$#!"#$%&'()* ==== 50 a!"#$%&!!sam!" 9!"#$%&!"#$!"#$%&'()*+$!"#$SAM!"!"!"#$%&' ()*+,-. ==== SAM!"#$%& 3! 1)!"2)!"#$3)!"!"#!"#$%&'()*!" ==== 1977!!"#SOI!El Nino!"#$%&!"#!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&ENSO!"#!"!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!" J PSA!"#$%PSA!"#$%&'()*+,- L! L!" #$%&'()*!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,!!"#$%&'()* ENSO! ====! ENSO!"#$%&'()%!"#!"#$!"#!"#$%SOI!"#$%&' 1990!"#$%1990!"#$1 11 2!"#$%&'()* PSA! El Nino La Nina! 1990!"#$%&'() Fogt 10 ENSO!"#$%&'()* SAM!"#!"#$%&'( La Nina SAM!F!"#$%&'!"#$%"&'(!"#$% ==== ITASE!"#$%&'() ACW!"#$%&' I!"!"#$%&'()*+=E 22 af=! OKP==!"#$" ====!"#$%&'()$*+,-./0!"#$%&'()*+,*-./0 ==== !"#$%&$'(!"# 60 nl/m 3 (ppt) 45 nl/m !"#CFC-11CFC-12CFC-113! 1.9 nl/m 3 (0.8%)I 5 nl/m 3 (1%) 0.8 nl/ m 3 (1%)!"HCFCs HCFC (nl/m 3 )/a (3.2%/a)!"#!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,I=2006!"#$%&9 24!"#$%&! km !"#!"# 85 Dobson!2002!"# Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (1): 1J7 3

4 = = = 4!"#$% OMMU Orcadas 1900!!"#$%&'(!"#!"#$%&'(!"#$%&' Amundsen/Bellingshausen!"#Ross!"!"#SAM!"#$!"#$%&!"#$!"!"#$%&'()*!!"#$%&'!"#$%&'( 87%!"#$%&' Wordie Wilkins 1940!"#$%&'(#)* !"#$!"!"!"#$!"#$%&! 1!"#$ 25%!" 70S!" Weddell!" McMurdo!"#$% 1990!"#$!"#! "#!"#$ 11!" 12!"#$%&' 59.8S!"#SOI!"El Nino!!"#SAO!"#$!"#$%&'()* 16 d SAM!" SAM!" ENSO! ENSO!!"#!"# SOI SOI Victoria WSOI Victoria WSOI!"#$!"#$ McMurdo!"# E!"!"#$%&' Ross Ross SST Adelie!"#$#%!"#$% (38 31) Gt/a!"#$% ( ) mm/a Larsen B! Larsen B!"# B15 C19!!"!"# !"# 50 a!"#!"#$%&'()*+,#$- [11] Fig. 1 Major events in Antarctic climate system during the last 50 years [11]!"#$%&'(!"##$%&!"#$%&'(!"#$%&!" OKQ==!"#$"%& ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./0!"!"#$%&'(!"#!"#$%&!"#$%&' ACC!" I!"#!"ACC!!"#$%!"#!"#$%&'(!!"#"$ ====!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'()* +!"#!"!"#$%&'!!"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%&'!"!"#$%1I=!"#$%&!"#$% 1950!"#$%&'!"#$%&'(!"#$%&!"#$%&'%()*+,- ====!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'!"#$%&#'(!"#$=!"#!$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*+= Weddell!"#$%WDW !"0.3!"#$%&'()*+!"!"#$%!" ====!"#$%&!70S! Weddell!"#$% I=Ross!"# =Ross!Amundsen!" !"#$%=!140150E George!"#$! J!"#!"#$%&!"#$#%&'()!"#!"#$%$&'()!"#$%&'( OKR==! "#$%& ====! "#$%& '()*+%&, 4 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (1): 1J7

5 N!!"#$%&'(!" 5!"#$%&'()!!"#$%&'()*+,-./0!"#$%&'()*!"#$% 13 SAM!"#$%!"#$%&' I= SAM!" ACC!"#$%!"#$%&SAM!"#$%&'(! ACC!"!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"#$%&'(!"#ACC!" OKS==! ====!"#$%&'()*+,-$. /!"Mackintosh 14!"#$%&!"#$%= Mackintosh 15!"!"#$%&'()De la Mare!"!"1950!"1970!"#$% 1!"25%I=!"Law Dome!"#$%&' MSA!"# 16 MSA!"#$%&'!"#$%&'!"#$%&'!"#$% ====!"1972!"#$%&'!"#$%&'() 59.8S!"#$!"#$#%$&'( 56.4S!!!"#$%&'()*+ Weddell L!"# !"#$% SAM!"#$%&'()!" Weddell!"#$% Ross!"!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&!"#$!"#$%&!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()!"#$!!"#$%&'!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()*+,-./0 1)!"#$%&'()!"# 1992!!"#$%&IGY!"#2)!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'$()*+,-. Amundsen!"#$%&!'()*+"!"# Pine! Thwaites! ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./ 90%!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$% mm/a ====!"!"#$%!"#$!"#$%&'()Larsen B!" 1000 a!"# 17 I!"#$%&'(!!"#$%&'()*+),!"#$%&'()*+!"#$!"#$%Cook 18!"#$61 a 244!"#$%&'(!"#!$%& 87%!!"!"#$%!!"#$E Wordie WilkinsF!"#$%&'()*!"!!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'() ====!"#49S!"#$%&'!"#!"#$%&!"#!7100 km 2 I= GeogeKerguelen Heard Bouvet Macquarie! Sandwich!"#$%&'()* 1958!"#$%&'1990!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-. P== NMM=~! OKT==!"#$%!"# ====!"#!!"!"#$%&'(!"#!"#$%&'()*+, ====!"!"#$%&'()*+, ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"!"#$%&'()*+,=!"#$%&'(1)!"#$2)!"#$%!"#$%&'()!"#$% Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (1): 1J7 5

6 = = = 6 =OMMU ====IPCC!"#$=EAR4F= !"#$%&'( I=! 35!"#$%&'()*+!,-./012 IPCC AR4 24!"#$ 19 A1B!"#$%&'21!!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&!"#$%& /10 a!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*!"#$%!"#$% /10 ai=!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123!"#$%&'()*+,-./0 ====!"#$%&'CFCs!WMO!"#$%&' !"1980!"#$!"#$%&'()*+, 1025 a 19 =!"#!"#$%&!"#$!"#$!"#$ CFCs!"#$%&'(")*+,- ====!"#$%!"#$%&'()!"#$%&' 25%50%!!"#25 11%=!"#$%&!"#$$%&0I=!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,-. ====!"#$%&!"#$%&'() SAM!"#$%&'()*+,!"!"#$%&!"# SAM!""# 20 a!!"#$%&!"#$% 20!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#$%&'() ACC!"!" #!"#$!ACC!"#$%&!"#$!"#!"#$%&'() ====2100!"#$%&'339%I=!"#$% 21!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,-./0!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"#$!"#$%&'()!"!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()IPCC AR4 2100!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'(1 m!"#$%&!"#$%!"#!"#125 ka BP Eamian!"2 3I!"#$%&'()"#*+,-!"#$% 5 m W==AGCS!"#$%&'()*+,-./0! SASOCS!!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$! [1] Flower B P, Kennett J P. Middle Miocene paleoceanography in the Southwest Pacific: relations with East Antarctic ice sheet development [J]. Paleoceanography, 1995, 10 (6): 1095J1112 [2] EPICA. Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core [J]. Nature, 2004, 429: 623J628 [3] Conway H, Hall B L, Denton G H, et al. Past and future grounding line retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet [J]. Science, 1999, 286: 280J283 [4] Mayewski P A, Maasch K. Recent warming inconsistent with natural association between temperature and atmospheric circulation over the last 2000 years [J]. Clim. Past Discuss., 2006, 2 (3): 327J355 [5] Marshall G J, Orr A, van Lipzig N P M, et al. The impact of a changing Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on Antarctic Peninsula summer temperatures [J]. J. Climate, 2006, 19: 5388J5404 [6] Schneider D P, Steig E J, van Ommen T D, et al. Antarctic temperatures over the past two centuries from ice cores [J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2006, 33, L16707, doi: /2006gl [7] Turner J, Lachlan-Cope T A, Colwell S R, et al. Significant warming of the Antarctic winter troposphere [J]. Science, 2006, 311: 1914J1917 [8] Thompson D W J, Solomon S. Interpretation of recent southern hemisphere climate change [J]. Science, 2002, 296: 895J899 [9] Marshall G J. Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses [J]. J. Climate, 2003, 16: 4134J4143 [10] Fogt R L, Bromwich D H. Decadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the high latitude South Pacific governed by coupling with the Southern Annular Mode [J]. J. Climate, 2006, 19: 979J997 [11] AGCS. State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System 6 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (1): 1J7

7 !!"#$%&'(!" N 7 [12] (SASOCS) [M]. Cambridge: AGCS, SASOCS.pdf Gille S T. Float observations of the Southern Ocean: Part 1, estimating [17] Domack E, Duran D, Leventer A, et al. Stability of the Larsen B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula during the Holocene epoch [J]. Nature, 2005, 436, doi: /nature03908 mean fields, bottom velocities and topographic steering [J]. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2003, 33: 1167J1181 [18] Cook A J, Fox A J, Vaughan D G. Retreating glacier fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past half-century [J]. Science, 2006, 308 (5721): 541J [13] Hall A, Visbeck M. Synchronous variability in the Southern Hemisphere 544, doi: /science atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean resulting from the annular mode [J]. J. [19] WMO. Scientific assessment of ozone depletion [R]. Global Research Climate, 2002, 15: 3043J3057 and Monitoring Project Report No.50. Geneva: WMO, 2006 [14] Mackintosh N A, Herdman H F P. Distribution of the Pack-Ice in the [20] Shindell T, Schmidt G A. Southern Hemisphere climate response to ozone Southern Ocean [J]. Discovery Reports, 1940, 19: 285J296 changes and greenhouse gas increases [J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2004, 31, [15] Mackintosh N A. Life cycle of Antarctic krill in relation to ice and water L18209 [16] conditions [J]. Discovery Reports, 1972, 36: 1J94 Curran M A J, van Ommen T, Morgan V I, et al. Ice core evidence for Antarctic sea ice decline since the 1950s [J]. Science, 2003, 302 (5648): 1203J1206 [21] Arzel O, Fichefet T, Goosse H. Sea ice evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by current AOGCMs [J]. Ocean Modelling, 2006, 12: 401J415 Changes in Antarctic Climate System: Past, present and future Xiao Cunde 1, 2 (1 State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou , China; 2 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing , China) Abstract: White paper on Status of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean Climate System (SASOCS) has been submitted to Science Committee of Antarctic Research (SCAR) by the Scientific Steering Committee of Antarctica in Global Climate System (AGCS). Changes in Antarctic climate system in the past 50 years are assessed and changes for the future 100 years are projected. It is concluded that: 1) large spatial differences were found in the past 50 years in the changes of the Antarctic climate system, rapid warming and glacier retreating occurred over the Antarctic Peninsula and islands in the southern oceans; enhanced warm air masses were detected over the West Antarctica, and winter warming occurred in the mid-troposphere while cooling in the stratosphere. The date of polar vortex decay was delayed. Bottom water in the sector of East Antarctica was purified, and also warmed in some areas such as Weddell Sea. However, there was no obvious changes in surface air temperature and precipitation in the overall Antarctica. Sea ice extent had no obvious changes either in the last 50 years, although large changes were observed in some sectors. 2) It is projected that air temperature over the inland of Antarctica will increase by ( ), and sea ice extent will decrease by 30% in the end of the 21st century. Current models are not able to predict the quantitative relations between ice sheet melting and sea level changes under future climate warming scenarios. Key words: Antarctica; Southern Ocean; ice sheet; projection; uncertainty Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (1): 1J7 7