Trade and Human Development in OIC Countries: A Panel Data Analysis


 Meredith Edwards
 1 years ago
 Views:
Transcription
1 Islamic Economic Sudies Vol. 21, No. 2, November, 2013 (5570) DOI No / Trade and Human Developmen in OIC Counries: A Panel Daa Analysis ZARINAH HAMID RUZITA MOHD AMIN Absrac This sudy examines he relaionship beween rade and he OIC counries social developmens as measured by he Human Developmen Index (HDI) using he generalized mehod of momens (GMM) procedure in a panel daa disribued lag model for he years 1980 o 2005, wih a fiveyear incremens as well as annual daa from 2000 o I addresses wo quesions: (i) wheher rade has a posiive relaionship wih human developmen as refleced by longeviy, educaional aainmen and income in he HDI measuremen, and (ii) wheher rade sill has a posiive relaionship wih human developmen, when he income componen of he HDI is excluded. Comparisons are made across OIC counries based on hree World Bank Classificaions by Income, namely, high income, middle income and low income counries. Trade is found o have a significan posiive relaionship wih HDI for all income caegories, bu insignifican relaionship wih nonincome HDI. The finding indicaes ha rade is associaed wih human developmen only hrough income channels, and i is no associaed wih oher componens, such as longeviy, lieracy level and educaional aainmen. More of appropriae and effecive public policies need o be formulaed and implemened so as o achieve he desired oucomes of mulidimensional human developmen in he rue sense of he word. Keywords: Trade, Human Developmen Index, OIC Counries, Generalized Mehod of Momen JEL Classificaions: O190, J310, C
2 56 Islamic Economic Sudies Vol. 21, No.2 1. Inroducion The increasingly globalized world has made counries engagemen wih inernaional markes no jus unavoidable bu also beneficial since rade can faciliae, promoe and susain he developmen process. For individual naions, rade is seen as a prerequisie for susained growh. This is currenly he dominan view an inheren exension of he argumens on he classic heoreical exposiion of he gains from rade. The Unied Naions Developmen Program (UNDP) in is Asia Pacific Human Developmen Repor 2006 presened a concepual framework ha relaes rade o human developmen. The framework says ha rade has been known o have he abiliy o change he srucure of he economy as well as he rae of growh. This, in urn, has implicaions for employmen of facors of producion, paricularly boh labor and capial. Trade has been said o reward skilled labor more highly han unskilled labor and can lead o he adopion of capialinensive echnologies ha may deepen inequaliy. However, such a problem can be prevened hrough public policies ha can be used o ensure ha rade benefis human developmen. There is also a feedback loop from human developmen o rade, which operaes direcly or is mediaed hrough he domesic policy framework. Feedback effecs work hrough higher income, higher echnical compeence and skills or hrough he power of advocacy on policymakers. Finally, human developmen can also have a direc influence upon he srucure of he economy, he rae of growh and rade iself (UNDP, 2006). The links beween rade and human developmen can be summarized in Figure 1. There are hree basic building blocks in he diagram: rade, human developmen and he links beween he wo. The hypohesized chain is: rade growh human developmen rade. There is hus a woway causaion: from rade o human developmen and back o rade. Even hough radiional rade models have shown ha rade liberalizaion and expansion will generae high income and economic growh (López, 2005), is ranslaion ino corresponding improvemens in human developmen is no auomaic. I depends on how and he exen o which he paern and characer of economic growh affec specific dimensions of human developmen. Trade should no be an end in iself. Raher, i should realize a broad range of human
3 Zarinah & Ruzia: Trade and Human Developmen in OIC Counries 57 developmen objecives, and especially o help alleviae povery and reduce human deprivaion in he poores and Leas Developed Counries (LDCs) (UNDP, 2006). 1 Figure 1 Trade and Human Developmen A Schemaic View Source: Figure 1.1 of UNDP (2006), p. 16. Trade and privae invesmen are needed o provide new engines of growh and dynamism for mos developing counries. Wih more rade and invesmen, he counries will be able o achieve faser growh, reduce povery, creae more jobs, and improve he knowledge, skills, and produciviy of heir workforce. While mos developing counries have managed o achieve improvemens in rade and privae 1 In order o ranslae rade liberalizaion ino improvemens in human developmen, various insiuional facors mus be in place such as poliical sabiliy, poliical will and an esablished regulaory framework.
4 58 Islamic Economic Sudies Vol. 21, No.2 invesmens in he 1990s, he Middle Eas and Norh Africa (MENA) 2 was he only region in he world o experience a reversal (World Bank, 2003). Povery did no improve in he las decade, bu human developmen indicaors for he region are repored o have improved remendously, a a rae ha surpassed even ha of lower middle income counries (Iqbal, 2006). The experience of he MENA counries as saed above, he majoriy of which are OIC counries, presens a paradox o he earlier argumen ha rade has a posiive impac on human developmen. Hence, i is a cause for furher analysis. The UNDP model is adoped in his sudy since i is, by far, he mos comprehensive model ha provides he disinc link beween rade and human developmen. Since he objecive of his sudy is no o examine he direcions of causaliy, i will focus only on he firs relaionship, i.e., from rade o human developmen hrough higher growh raes. Thus, he quesion addressed by his sudy is: does rade have a posiive relaionship wih human developmen (as a measure of social developmen)? Since human developmen is commonly measured by he Human Developmen Index (HDI) which consiss of hree componens, namely, longeviy, educaional aainmen and income, anoher quesion addressed in his sudy is: does he posiive relaionship beween rade and social developmen sill hold if he income componen of he HDI is excluded? The analysis in his sudy involves making comparisons of he resuls across hree caegories of OIC counries according o he World Bank Classificaions by Income, namely: (i) High income counries (Bahrain, Brune Kuwai, Qaar, Saudi Arabia and Unied Arab Emiraes); (ii) Middle income (boh upper and lower middle income) counries (Albania, Algeria, Gabon, Iran, Kazakhsan, Malaysia, Turkey, Cameroon, Coe d Ivoire, Egyp, Guyana, Indonesia, Jordan, Maldives, Morocco, Pakisan, Senegal, Sudan, Tunisia and Yemen); and (iii) Low income counries (Bangladesh, Chad, Gambia, Kyrgyzsan, Mal Mauriania, Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone, Tajikisan, Togo and Uganda). Such a comparison is necessary o examine wheher here is a posiive relaionship beween rade and HDI across he hree classificaions of OIC counries. 2 Based on he World bank classificaion, he Middle Eas and Norh Africa (MENA) region is comprised of wenyone counries or erriories, namely, namely he Gulf Cooperaion Council (GCC) members (Bahrain, Kuwai, Oman, Qaar, Saudi Arabia, and Unied Arab Emiraes), and fifeen oher counries or erriories, i.e., Algeria, Djibou he Arab Republic of Egyp, Iraq, he Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Mala, Morocco, he Republic of Yemen, he Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and he Wes Bank and Gaza (World Bank, 2003).
5 Zarinah & Ruzia: Trade and Human Developmen in OIC Counries 59 This paper is srucured as follows. The nex secion provides a brief survey of he lieraure on rade and human developmen boh a he inercounry as well as inracounry analyses. Secion 3 describes he daa and mehodology used in his sudy. Secion 4 presens he analysis and discussion of he findings while he las secion concludes. 2. Lieraure Review There is an exensive lieraure on he impac of rade on social wellbeing (wih economic growh explicily included in some sudies), boh a he crosscounry as well as wihincounry analyses. Various aspecs of social wellbeing have been examined and he mos imporan ones include income inequaliy, povery, and human developmen as a composie index. A review of he vas lieraure using crosscounry comparisons for he impac of rade openness on povery wihin counries can be found in Ravallion (2006). He highlighs a number of sudies ha have combined surveybased measures of income inequaliy a counry level wih daa on rade and oher conrol variables o assess he disribuional impacs of rade openness; he laer is ypically measured by rade volume, defined by expors plus impors as a share of GDP (examples include Bourguignon and Morisson (1990), Edwards (1997), L Squire, and Zou (1998), Barro (2000), Dollar and Kraay (2002, 2004), Lundberg and Squire (2003), and Milanovic (2005)). The resuls are mixed which implies ambiguous implicaions of rade on inequaliy. In an influenial sudy by Dollar and Kraay (2002, 2004), hey find lile or no effec of rade volume on inequaliy, conrary o he findings of oher sudies which repored adverse effecs on inequaliy. Lundberg and Squire (2003), for insance, find evidence ha higher rade volume ends o increase inequaliy. Some sudies also repor similar findings in he case of poor counries bu he reverse holds a higher mean income (Milanovic, 2005; Ravallion, 2001). The implicaions for povery also depend on he growh impacs. Dollar (1992), Sachs and Warner (1995), Harrison (1996), and Edwards (1998), among ohers, provide empirical suppor for he view ha rade expansion promoes economic growh. In a measudy of all he crosscounry growh regressions wih an average of seven regressors (chosen from 67 candidaes drawn from he lieraure on crosscounry growh regressions), SalaIMarin, Doppelhofer, and Miller (2004) repor ha rade volume is significan in wohirds of he regressions, hough i is no among heir subse of 18 robus predicors of economic growh. Wheher he
6 60 Islamic Economic Sudies Vol. 21, No.2 growh effecs are srong enough such ha povery falls wih rade openness remains unclear. The findings of Dollar and Kraay (2004) and ohers ha rade does no affec inequaliy bu fosers growh make i very likely ha i lowers absolue povery (meaning ha he povery line is fixed in real erms). In a sudy on China, Ravallion (2006) ess he claim ha he counry s greaer rade openness has been an imporan facor in reducing povery. Aggregae ime series daa spanning he period and hree povery measures were used, namely, he headcoun index, he povery gap index, and he squared povery gap index. For all 3 povery measures, no significan effec is found of curren or lagged rade volume on povery in China, a finding which is significanly differen from earlier sudies. Very few works have aemped o look a he relaionship beween rade and human developmen as a whole. Arimah (2002) relaes inercounry variaions in he level of human developmen o inercounry differences in he macroeconomic environmen, invesmen in human capabiliies, good governance, commimen o he objecives of human developmen, and naural resource endowmen. The sudy finds ha he macroeconomic environmen is he key deerminan of inercounry differences in human developmen. Specifically, economic growh has a posiive impac on human developmen. In anoher sudy, Davies and Quinlivan, (2006) examines he impac of rade on counries social developmens as measured by he Human Developmen Index (HDI). The generalized mehod of momens (GMM) procedure in a panel daa disribued lag model is used and he change in he HDI index is modeled as a funcion of percapia rade. Using panel daa on 154 counries for he period , he sudy finds ha increases in rade are posiively associaed wih fuure increases in social welfare. Gunduz, Hisarciklilar and Kaya (2009) find similar resuls in erms of he posiive relaionship beween rade and social developmen for he differen classificaions of 106 counries from The sudy also reveals ha his posiive link is valid only for high and upper middle income counries, bu diminishes wih lower income when he income componen of he HDI is excluded. The survey of lieraure above has shown ha very few sudies have looked ino he relaionship beween rade and human developmen, paricularly wheher here are crosscounry variaions in he differen caegories of income levels of OIC counries. Hence, his sudy is an aemp o fill his gap.
7 Zarinah & Ruzia: Trade and Human Developmen in OIC Counries Mehodology and Daa Descripion This sudy uilizes panel daa esimaion echnique following Gunduz, Hisarciklilar and Kaya (2009) and Davies and Quinlivan (2006) wih he model: HDI 1HDI 1 2Trade i (1) where HDI i, Human Developmen Index for counry i period expors imporsi, exporsi, 1 imporsi, 1 Trade ln ln populaioni, populaioni, 1 is hefixedor randomeffec whi ch measures hespecificcharaceri sicsof counry i i disurbances The Generalized Mehod of Momens (GMM) echnique is applied on his model since i is a very general saisical mehod of formulaing models and obaining esimaes of parameers wihou making srong assumpions on heir disribuions. The idea of he GMM is o use momen condiions ha can be found from he problem wih lile effor. I is a mehod of esimaing he populaion parameers such as mean, variance, and median, by equaing sample momens wih unobservable populaion momens and hen solving hose equaions for he quaniies o be esimaed. According o Greene (2003), he GMM esimaors are assumed o converge and mee he condiions of law of large numbers, hey fulfill he idenificaion condiions and hey are asympoically disribued. Irwin and Tervio (2002) and Noguer and Siscar (2005) used he Ordinary Leas Square (OLS) mehod o deermine if rade raises income. However, he GMM mehod is preferred o he OLS mehod because he former is applicable when esimaing an unknown probabiliy disribuion whereas he laer always assumed ha he error erm is normally disribued. Furhermore, he OLS esimaion is very sensiive o ouliers and wih he exisence of ouliers in he daa i will lead o biased and inefficien esimaes. In oher words, he OLS mehod is nooriously nonrobus o ouliers. Since we anicipae ha our sudy will conain such caegory of daase and he appropriae probabiliy disribuions may no be known, hence he momenbased esimaes are preferred o OLS esimaes.
8 62 Islamic Economic Sudies Vol. 21, No.2 Using he sandard procedure in GMM esimaion by aking he firs difference of he variables in a disribuedlag model, equaion (1) becomes: HDI 1 HDI 1 2 Trade (2) where HDI HDI i HDI 1 Trade Trade Trade The nex sage is o deermine he appropriae lag lengh by using he Arellano Bond esimaor and hen used he lagged values of he dependen variable ( HDIi, 2 j, j 0,1...) as an insrumen for he HDIi while deriving he momen condiions (Gunduz, Hisarciklilar and Kaya, 2009). I is assumed ha he disurbances are homoscedasic wihin counries and over ime, (possibly) heeroscedasic across counries and oherwise well behaved,i.e., 2 i i j, v cov(, j, v) 0 oherwise In order o examine he impac of rade on social developmen (i.e., HDI excluding he income componen), anoher model is also esimaed uilizing HDI defined as nonincome HDI: HDI 1 HDI 1 2 Trade (3) where min 1 log( y) log( y ) HDI, HDI, y = Gross naional income per i max min 3 log( y ) log( y ) min max capia, y = PPP US$100, y = PPP US$40,000 3 HDI Trade HDI HDI 1 Trade Trade The definiion is based on he official formula a hp:// hdr.undp.org/en/saisics/daa/calculaor/. The HDI is compued as a simple average of he hree componens of life expecancy, educaion and sandard of living, where HDI = 1/3(life expecancy index)+1/3(educaion index)+1/3(gdp index). Hence, subracing he hird componen, i.e., he income componen from he HDI, resuls in he nonincome HDI, namely HDI.
9 Zarinah & Ruzia: Trade and Human Developmen in OIC Counries 63 This sudy uses secondary daa from several sources namely he World Bank, he Unied Naions Developmen Programme (UNDP) Publicaions, Inernaional Financial Saisics CDROM, Direcion of Trade Saisics (various years) and IMF World Economic Oulook Daabase. The HDI daa are rerieved from he UNDP publicaions as a measure of social developmen while he oher daa sources supply he informaion o compue he counry s percapia rade. Daa for HDI are repored in 5year incremens beginning 1975 unil However, he year 1975 is excluded since he HDI daa are no repored for Bahrain and Jordan while he year 2010 is excluded because four counries, namely Oman, Lebanon, Iraq and Somalia are ye o furnish heir Human Developmen Index o he UNDP. In addiion, several OIC counries in he high, middle and low income caegories are excluded from he sudy due o daa consrain. Table 1 summarizes he number of counries included in he sudy by income classificaions conaining HDI daa of 5year incremens and yearly incremens. Table 1 Number of Counries by Income Classificaions 5year incremens ( ) Number of counries % of sample Yearly ( ) High income counries Middle income (boh upper and lower income) Low income counries Toal % of sample Based on availabiliy of HDI daa for he fiveyear incremens, his sudy makes a comparison of he resuls across he following caegories of 24 OIC counries as in World Bank (2007), namely: (i) High income counries (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Unied Arab Emiraes); (ii) Upper middle and lower middle income counries (Algeria, Gabon, Malaysia, Turkey, Cameroon, Coe d Ivoire, Egyp, Guyana, Indonesia, Jordan, Morocco, Pakisan, Senegal, Sudan and Tunisia); and (iii) Low income counries (Bangladesh, Mal Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone and Togo). As shown in Table 1, HDI daa for a oal of 24 counries are available a fiveyear incremens. Saring from he year 2000, HDI was repored on annual basis and
10 64 Islamic Economic Sudies Vol. 21, No.2 wih he availabiliy of his annual daa he number of counries in each classificaion increases o six for High income counries (Bahrain, Brune Kuwai, Qaar, Saudi Arabia and Unied Arab Emiraes); 20 for Upper middle and lower middle income counries (Albania, Algeria, Gabon, Iran, Kazakhsan, Malaysia, Turkey, Cameroon, Coe d Ivoire, Egyp, Guyana, Indonesia, Jordan, Maldives, Morocco, Pakisan, Senegal, Sudan, Tunisia and Yemen); and 12 for Low income counries (Bangladesh, Chad, Gambia, Kyrgyzsan, Mal Mauriania, Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone, Tajikisan, Togo and Uganda). Therefore, for HDI daa series produced annually from 2000 o 2009, a oal of 38 are uilized in his sudy (see Table 1). 4. Analysis and Discussion The rends in HDI and oal rade over he period of analysis by income classificaions are provided in Figures 2 and 3. The average HDI and he average oal rade are highes for high income counries, followed by middle and low income counries. The average HDI shows an increasing rend over he years for all counries. The average oal rade of high income counries increased rapidly beginning 2002, peaked in 2008 and declined in However, he average oal rade of middle and low income counries remained almos he same hroughou he period of analysis. Figure 2 Average HDI for OIC Counries Based on Income Classificaions
11 Zarinah & Ruzia: Trade and Human Developmen in OIC Counries 65 Figure 3 Average Toal Trade for OIC Counries Based on Income Classificaions Two ses of esimaions are performed separaely for each of he hree income classificaions of OIC counries, 4 choosing he dependen variables as HDI i, o examine he impac of rade on human developmen as a whole, and on HDI o invesigae furher he impac of rade on acual social developmen, when income is excluded from HDI. The esimaions uilizing fiveyear incremens of HDI generally yields insignifican resuls for all variables across all income classificaions. This may be due o he relaively small number of observaions obained for each income classificaions due o daa consrains. Hence, he resuls are no repored. 5 The firs esimaion on yearly daa from 2000 o 2009, however, yields more ineresing resuls. Trade per capia ( Trade i ) is posiively correlaed wih he variaion of he HDI and found o be significan (see Table 2). A similar resul is found in Davies and Quinlivan (2006) where rade and social welfare is significan and posiively relaed. However, only for he low income counries, increases in HDI levels observed over he pas wo years ( HDI 1 ) have a posiive relaionship wih he changes in oal human developmen over he pas period. 4 The esimaion using he 5year incremens is also performed in addiion o using yearly daa in order o capure he experience of he counries in he years prior o 2000, of which daa on HDI is repored only on a 5year inervals. 5 The esimaion resuls are available upon reques.
12 66 Islamic Economic Sudies Vol. 21, No.2 Table 2 Esimaion Resuls for Model 1 (HDI) High Income OIC Middle Income OIC Low Income OIC Trade i ( ) ( ) ( ) HDI ( ) ( ) ( ) Consan (0.2713) ( ) ( ) Jsaisic 3.25E E E27 Noes:,, denoe significance a he 10%, 5%, and 1% level, respecively. Figures in parenheses are saisics. Table 3 Esimaion Resuls for Model 2 (HDI) High Income OIC Middle Income OIC Low Income OIC Trade i ( ) ( ) ( ) HDI ( ) ( ) ( ) Consan ( ) ( ) 2.31E05 ( ) Jsaisic 4.21E E E27 Noes:,, denoe significance a he 10%, 5%, and 1% level, respecively. Figures in parenheses are saisics. The second esimaion on HDI ha excludes he income componen of HDI shows nonsignificance of he rade variable for all income classificaions (see Table 3). This indicaes ha rade relaes posiively only wih he income componen of human developmen, bu no wih he oher componens, such as longeviy, lieracy level and educaional aainmen as capured by HDI. Thus, consisen wih Gunduz, Hisarciklilar and Kaya (2009), rade is found o be linked o human developmen only hrough income channels. As before, only for he low income counries, increases in HDI levels observed over he pas wo years ( HDI ) have a posiive relaionship wih he changes in oal human 1 developmen over he pas period. This suggess ha for he middle and high income OIC counries, he level of developmen has reached a level where he
13 Zarinah & Ruzia: Trade and Human Developmen in OIC Counries 67 growh in human developmen over he period has become small, rendering i insignifican. Examining he validiy of boh models, he Jsaisic null hypohesis saes ha a model is valid while he alernaive hypohesis indicaes ha a model is invalid and he daa do no come close o meeing he resricions. The resuls in Table 2 indicae ha he null hypohesis canno be rejeced a he 99% confidence level (or a he 1% significance level), hus boh he models are, overall, valid. 5. Conclusion and Policy Recommendaion Trade has been known o have he abiliy o change he srucure of he economy as well as he rae of growh. I is a means o realize a broad range of human developmen objecives, such as o help alleviae povery and reduce human deprivaion. This sudy examines he relaionship beween rade and he OIC counries social developmens as measured by he HDI using he GMM procedure in a panel daa disribued lag model for he years 1980 o 2005, wih a fiveyear incremens as well as annual daa from 2000 o I addresses wo quesions: (i) does rade have a posiive relaionship wih human developmen as refleced by longeviy, educaional aainmen and income in he HDI measuremen? (ii) If he posiive relaionship beween rade and human developmen exiss, does i sill hold if he income componen of he HDI is excluded? Comparisons are made across OIC counries based on hree World Bank Classificaions by Income, namely, high income, middle income and low income counries. The sudy finds ha rade is posiively linked o HDI for all income caegories, bu he link is insignifican on nonincome HDI. The finding indicaes ha rade relaes o human developmen only hrough income channels, and i does no relae o oher componens, such as longeviy, lieracy level and educaional aainmen. The sudy also found ha increases in HDI levels observed over he pas wo years have a posiive relaionship wih he changes in oal human developmen over he pas period only for he low income counries. This suggess ha for he middle and high income OIC counries, he level of developmen has reached a level where he growh in human developmen over he period has become less gradual, rendering i insignifican. As menioned in he beginning of his paper, even hough rade liberalizaion and expansion can generae high income and economic growh, is ranslaion ino
14 68 Islamic Economic Sudies Vol. 21, No.2 corresponding improvemens in human developmen is no auomaic. I depends on how and he exen o which he paern and characer of economic growh affec specific dimensions of human developmen, and his can be grealy influenced by appropriae public policies ha can be used o ensure ha rade benefis human developmen. The finding ha rade no longer has a posiive relaionship wih human developmen when he income componen is excluded may imply ha public policies in hese counries have been unable o channel he benefis from rade ino more meaningful dimensions of human developmen. Hence, more of appropriae and effecive public policies need o be formulaed and implemened so as o achieve he desired oucomes of mulidimensional human developmen in he rue sense of he word. References Arimah, B. C. (2002), Naure, deerminans and prospecs for susainable human developmen in he Arab region, in Arab Developmen Challenges of he New Millennium, edied by Belkacem Laabas, Hampshire, England: Ashgae Publishing Limied. Barro, R. (2000), Inequaliy and growh in a panel of counries. Journal of Economic Growh 5: Bourguignon, F., and Morisson, C. (1990), Income disribuion, developmen and foreign rade. European Economic Review 34: Davies, A., & Quinlivan, G. (2006), A panel daa analysis of he impac of rade on human developmen. The Journal of SocioEconomics 35: Dollar, D. (1992), Ouwardoriened developing economies really do grow more rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, Economic Developmen and Culural Change 40(3): Dollar, D. and Kraay, A. (2002), Growh is good for he poor. Journal of Economic Growh 7(3): Dollar, D. and Kraay, A. (2004), Trade, growh and povery. Economic Journal 114(493): F22 F49. Edwards, S. (1997), Trade policy, growh and income disribuion. American Economic Review 87(2): Edwards, S. (1998), Openness, produciviy and growh: Wha do we really know? Economic Journal 108:
15 Zarinah & Ruzia: Trade and Human Developmen in OIC Counries 69 Gunduz, U., Hisarciklilar, M., and Kaya, T. (2009), The Impac of Trade on Social Developmen. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology: Greene, W.H. (2003), Economeric Analysis. Fifh Ediion, New Jersey, U.S.A: PreniceHall. Harrison, A. (1996), Openness and growh: A ime series, crosscounry analysis for developing counries Journal of Developmen Economics 48(2): Iqbal, F. (2006), Susaining Gains in Povery Reducion and Human Developmen in he Middle Eas and Norh Africa, Washingon D.C.: The Inernaional Bank for Reconsrucion and Developmen/The World Bank. Irwin, D.A., and Tervio, M. (2002), Does rade raise income? Evidence from he wenieh cenury Journal of Inernaional Economics 58: L H., Squire, L., & Zou, H. (1998), Explaining inernaional and ineremporal variaions in income inequaliy. Economic Journal 108: López, R.A. (2005), Trade and growh: reconciling he macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence. Journal of Economic Surveys 19(4): Lundberg, M., and Squire, L. (2003), The simulaneous evoluion of growh and inequaliy. Economic Journal 113: Milanovic, B. (2003), Can we discern he effec of globalizaion on income disribuion? World Bank Economic Review 19(1): Noguer, M., and Siscar, M. (2005), Trade increases income: A precise and robus resul. Journal of Inernaional Economics 65: Ravallion, M. (2001), Growh, inequaliy and povery: Looking beyond averages. World Developmen 29(11): Ravallion, M. (2006), Looking beyond averages in he rade and povery debae. World Developmen 34(8): Sachs, J., and Warner, A. (1995), Economic convergence and economic policies. Brookings Papers on Economic Aciviy 1: SalaIMarin, X., Doppelhofer, G., and Miller, R. (2004), Deerminans of longerm growh: A Bayesian averaging of classical esimaes (BACE) approach. American Economic Review 94(4): UNDP. (2006), Asia Pacific Human Developmen Repor 2006: Trade on Human Terms Transforming Trade for Human Developmen in Asia and he Pacific. Unied Naions Developmen Program.
16 70 Islamic Economic Sudies Vol. 21, No.2 World Bank. (2003), Trade, Invesmen, and Developmen in he Middle Eas and Norh Africa: Engaging wih he World. Washingon, D.C.: The Inernaional Bank for Reconsrucion and Developmen/The World Bank.
The general Solow model
The general Solow model Back o a closed economy In he basic Solow model: no growh in GDP per worker in seady sae This conradics he empirics for he Wesern world (sylized fac #5) In he general Solow model:
More informationACE 562 Fall Lecture 5: The Simple Linear Regression Model: Sampling Properties of the Least Squares Estimators. by Professor Scott H.
ACE 56 Fall 005 Lecure 5: he Simple Linear Regression Model: Sampling Properies of he Leas Squares Esimaors by Professor Sco H. Irwin Required Reading: Griffihs, Hill and Judge. "Inference in he Simple
More informationACE 562 Fall Lecture 4: Simple Linear Regression Model: Specification and Estimation. by Professor Scott H. Irwin
ACE 56 Fall 005 Lecure 4: Simple Linear Regression Model: Specificaion and Esimaion by Professor Sco H. Irwin Required Reading: Griffihs, Hill and Judge. "Simple Regression: Economic and Saisical Model
More informationTime series Decomposition method
Time series Decomposiion mehod A ime series is described using a mulifacor model such as = f (rend, cyclical, seasonal, error) = f (T, C, S, e) Long Inermediaed Seasonal Irregular erm erm effec, effec,
More informationUSP. SurplusProduction Models
USP SurplusProducion Models 2 Overview Purpose of slides: Inroducion o he producion model Overview of differen mehods of fiing Go over some criique of he mehod Source: Haddon 2001, Chaper 10 Hilborn and
More informationAir Traffic Forecast Empirical Research Based on the MCMC Method
Compuer and Informaion Science; Vol. 5, No. 5; 0 ISSN 938989 EISSN 938997 Published by Canadian Cener of Science and Educaion Air Traffic Forecas Empirical Research Based on he MCMC Mehod Jianbo Wang,
More informationFinal Exam. Tuesday, December hours
San Francisco Sae Universiy Michael Bar ECON 560 Fall 03 Final Exam Tuesday, December 7 hours Name: Insrucions. This is closed book, closed noes exam.. No calculaors of any kind are allowed. 3. Show all
More informationHow to Deal with Structural Breaks in Practical Cointegration Analysis
How o Deal wih Srucural Breaks in Pracical Coinegraion Analysis Roselyne Joyeux * School of Economic and Financial Sudies Macquarie Universiy December 00 ABSTRACT In his noe we consider he reamen of srucural
More informationNCSS Statistical Software. , contains a periodic (cyclic) component. A natural model of the periodic component would be
NCSS Saisical Sofware Chaper 468 Specral Analysis Inroducion This program calculaes and displays he periodogram and specrum of a ime series. This is someimes nown as harmonic analysis or he frequency approach
More informationA Dynamic Model of Economic Fluctuations
CHAPTER 15 A Dynamic Model of Economic Flucuaions Modified for ECON 2204 by Bob Murphy 2016 Worh Publishers, all righs reserved IN THIS CHAPTER, OU WILL LEARN: how o incorporae dynamics ino he ADAS model
More informationCHAPTER 17: DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC MODELS: AUTOREGRESSIVE AND DISTRIBUTEDLAG MODELS
Basic Economerics, Gujarai and Porer CHAPTER 7: DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC MODELS: AUTOREGRESSIVE AND DISTRIBUTEDLAG MODELS 7. (a) False. Economeric models are dynamic if hey porray he ime pah of he dependen
More informationGDP PER CAPITA IN EUROPE: TIME TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE
Economics and Finance Working Paper Series Deparmen of Economics and Finance Working Paper No. 1718 Guglielmo Maria Caporale and Luis A. GilAlana GDP PER CAPITA IN EUROPE: TIME TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE
More informationMeasurement Error 1: Consequences Page 1. Definitions. For two variables, X and Y, the following hold: Expectation, or Mean, of X.
Measuremen Error 1: Consequences of Measuremen Error Richard Williams, Universiy of Nore Dame, hps://www3.nd.edu/~rwilliam/ Las revised January 1, 015 Definiions. For wo variables, X and Y, he following
More informationCENTRALIZED VERSUS DECENTRALIZED PRODUCTION PLANNING IN SUPPLY CHAINS
CENRALIZED VERSUS DECENRALIZED PRODUCION PLANNING IN SUPPLY CHAINS Georges SAHARIDIS* a, Yves DALLERY* a, Fikri KARAESMEN* b * a Ecole Cenrale Paris Deparmen of Indusial Engineering (LGI), +3343388, saharidis,dallery@lgi.ecp.fr
More informationQuarterly ice cream sales are high each summer, and the series tends to repeat itself each year, so that the seasonal period is 4.
Seasonal models Many business and economic ime series conain a seasonal componen ha repeas iself afer a regular period of ime. The smalles ime period for his repeiion is called he seasonal period, and
More informationFITTING OF A PARTIALLY REPARAMETERIZED GOMPERTZ MODEL TO BROILER DATA
FITTING OF A PARTIALLY REPARAMETERIZED GOMPERTZ MODEL TO BROILER DATA N. Okendro Singh Associae Professor (Ag. Sa.), College of Agriculure, Cenral Agriculural Universiy, Iroisemba 795 004, Imphal, Manipur
More informationArticle from. Predictive Analytics and Futurism. July 2016 Issue 13
Aricle from Predicive Analyics and Fuurism July 6 Issue An Inroducion o Incremenal Learning By Qiang Wu and Dave Snell Machine learning provides useful ools for predicive analyics The ypical machine learning
More informationMatrix Versions of Some Refinements of the ArithmeticGeometric Mean Inequality
Marix Versions of Some Refinemens of he ArihmeicGeomeric Mean Inequaliy Bao Qi Feng and Andrew Tonge Absrac. We esablish marix versions of refinemens due o Alzer ], Carwrigh and Field 4], and Mercer 5]
More informationForecast of Adult Literacy in Sudan
Journal for Sudies in Managemen and Planning Available a hp://inernaionaljournalofresearch.org/index.php/jsmap eissn: 2395463 Volume 1 Issue 2 March 215 Forecas of Adul Lieracy in Sudan Dr. Elfarazdag
More informationLONG MEMORY AT THE LONGRUN AND THE SEASONAL MONTHLY FREQUENCIES IN THE US MONEY STOCK. Guglielmo Maria Caporale. Brunel University, London
LONG MEMORY AT THE LONGRUN AND THE SEASONAL MONTHLY FREQUENCIES IN THE US MONEY STOCK Guglielmo Maria Caporale Brunel Universiy, London Luis A. GilAlana Universiy of Navarra Absrac In his paper we show
More informationExercise: Building an Error Correction Model of Private Consumption. Part II Testing for Cointegration 1
Bo Sjo 20024 Exercise: Building an Error Correcion Model of Privae Consumpion. Par II Tesing for Coinegraion Learning objecives: This lab inroduces esing for he order of inegraion and coinegraion. The
More informationStochastic Model for Cancer Cell Growth through Single Forward Mutation
Journal of Modern Applied Saisical Mehods Volume 16 Issue 1 Aricle 31 512017 Sochasic Model for Cancer Cell Growh hrough Single Forward Muaion Jayabharahiraj Jayabalan Pondicherry Universiy, jayabharahi8@gmail.com
More informationAppendix A1: Wage distribution and sectoral minimum wages in Finland. Appendix A2: Wage distribution and statutory minimum wage in the United Kingdom
Online Appendix: GARNERO, Andrea, KAMPELMANN, Sephan and RYCX, François, Minimum Wage Sysems and Earnings Inequaliies: Does Insiuional Diversiy Maer?, European Journal of Indusrial Relaions Appendix A1:
More informationLab 10: RC, RL, and RLC Circuits
Lab 10: RC, RL, and RLC Circuis In his experimen, we will invesigae he behavior of circuis conaining combinaions of resisors, capaciors, and inducors. We will sudy he way volages and currens change in
More informationImpact of International Information Technology Transfer on National Productivity. Online Supplement
Impac of Inernaional Informaion Technology Transfer on Naional Prouciviy Online Supplemen Jungsoo Park Deparmen of Economics Sogang Universiy Seoul, Korea Email: jspark@sogang.ac.kr, Tel: 8227058697,
More informationOn Skill Heterogeneity, Human Capital, and Inflation. Radhika Lahiri Queensland University of Technology. and
On Skill eerogeneiy uman Capial and Inflaion Radhika Lahiri Queensland Universiy of Technology and Elisabea Magnani Universiy of ew Souh Wales March 006 Absrac This paper examines he welfare coss of inflaion
More informationProfessorial Chair Lecture. Don Santiago Syjuco Distinguished Professorial Chair in Economics
Professorial Chair Lecure Don Saniago Syjuco Disinguished Professorial Chair in Economics THE ONRUSH OF KOREAN TOURISTS TO THE PHILIPPINES A MACROECONOMETRIC EVALUATION Dr. Cesar C. Rufino School of Economics
More informationInternational Parity Relations between Poland and Germany: A Cointegrated VAR Approach
Research Seminar a he Deparmen of Economics, Warsaw Universiy Warsaw, 15 January 2008 Inernaional Pariy Relaions beween Poland and Germany: A Coinegraed VAR Approach Agnieszka Sążka Naional Bank of Poland
More informationLecture Notes 2. The Hilbert Space Approach to Time Series
Time Series Seven N. Durlauf Universiy of Wisconsin. Basic ideas Lecure Noes. The Hilber Space Approach o Time Series The Hilber space framework provides a very powerful language for discussing he relaionship
More informationWednesday, December 5 Handout: Panel Data and Unobservable Variables
Amhers College Deparmen of Economics Economics 360 Fall 0 Wednesday, December 5 Handou: Panel Daa and Unobservable Variables Preview Taking Sock: Ordinary Leas Squares (OLS) Esimaion Procedure o Sandard
More information15.023J / J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy Spring 2008
MIT OpenCourseWare hp://ocw.mi.edu 15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climae Change: Economics, Science, and Policy Spring 2008 For informaion abou ciing hese maerials or our Terms of Use, visi: hp://ocw.mi.edu/erms.
More informationA New Approach to Combine Econometric Model with Timeseries AnalysesAn Empirical Study of International Exchange Markets
A New Approach o Combine conomeric Model wih imeseries AnalysesAn mpirical Sudy of Inernaional xchange Markes MingYuan Leon Li Assisan Professor Deparmen of Accounancy Graduae Insiue of Finance and
More informationThe BrockMirman Stochastic Growth Model
c November 20, 207, Chrisopher D. Carroll BrockMirman The BrockMirman Sochasic Growh Model Brock and Mirman (972) provided he firs opimizing growh model wih unpredicable (sochasic) shocks. The social
More informationConvergence of Income Among Provinces in Canada An Application of GMM Estimation
Economerics Working Paper EWP0502 Deparmen of Economics ISSN 485644 Convergence of Income Among Provinces in Canada An Applicaion of GMM Esimaion Mukesh Ralhan Deparmen of Economics, Universiy of Vicoria
More informationMatlab and Python programming: how to get started
Malab and Pyhon programming: how o ge sared Equipping readers he skills o wrie programs o explore complex sysems and discover ineresing paerns from big daa is one of he main goals of his book. In his chaper,
More informationProblem Set #3: AK models
Universiy of Warwick EC9A2 Advanced Macroeconomic Analysis Problem Se #3: AK models Jorge F. Chavez December 3, 2012 Problem 1 Consider a compeiive economy, in which he level of echnology, which is exernal
More informationStability. Coefficients may change over time. Evolution of the economy Policy changes
Sabiliy Coefficiens may change over ime Evoluion of he economy Policy changes Time Varying Parameers y = α + x β + Coefficiens depend on he ime period If he coefficiens vary randomly and are unpredicable,
More information1 Review of ZeroSum Games
COS 5: heoreical Machine Learning Lecurer: Rob Schapire Lecure #23 Scribe: Eugene Brevdo April 30, 2008 Review of ZeroSum Games Las ime we inroduced a mahemaical model for wo player zerosum games. Any
More informationINTRODUCTION TO MACHINE LEARNING 3RD EDITION
ETHEM ALPAYDIN The MIT Press, 2014 Lecure Slides for INTRODUCTION TO MACHINE LEARNING 3RD EDITION alpaydin@boun.edu.r hp://www.cmpe.boun.edu.r/~ehem/i2ml3e CHAPTER 2: SUPERVISED LEARNING Learning a Class
More informationDecomposing Value Added Growth Over Sectors into Explanatory Factors
Business School Decomposing Value Added Growh Over Secors ino Explanaory Facors W. Erwin Diewer (UBC and UNSW Ausralia) and Kevin J. Fox (UNSW Ausralia) EMG Workshop UNSW 2 December 2016 Summary Decompose
More information3.1 More on model selection
3. More on Model selecion 3. Comparing models AIC, BIC, Adjused R squared. 3. Over Fiing problem. 3.3 Sample spliing. 3. More on model selecion crieria Ofen afer model fiing you are lef wih a handful of
More informationTypes of Exponential Smoothing Methods. Simple Exponential Smoothing. Simple Exponential Smoothing
M Business Forecasing Mehods Exponenial moohing Mehods ecurer : Dr Iris Yeung Room No : P79 Tel No : 788 8 Types of Exponenial moohing Mehods imple Exponenial moohing Double Exponenial moohing Brown s
More informationLecture 33: November 29
36705: Inermediae Saisics Fall 2017 Lecurer: Siva Balakrishnan Lecure 33: November 29 Today we will coninue discussing he boosrap, and hen ry o undersand why i works in a simple case. In he las lecure
More informationInternational Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research, Volume 4, Issue 10, October ISSN
Inernaional Journal of Scienific & Engineering Research, Volume 4, Issue 10, Ocober2013 900 FUZZY MEAN RESIDUAL LIFE ORDERING OF FUZZY RANDOM VARIABLES J. EARNEST LAZARUS PIRIYAKUMAR 1, A. YAMUNA 2 1.
More informationChina s (Uneven) Progress Against Poverty
China s (Uneven) Progress Agains Povery Marin Ravallion and Shaohua Chen 1 Developmen Research Group, World Bank 1818 H Sree NW, Washingon DC, 20433, USA While he incidence of exreme povery in China fell
More informationNBER WORKING PAPER SERIES GROWTH, URBANIZATION AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN INDIA. Gaurav Datt Martin Ravallion Rinku Murgai
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES GROWTH, URBANIZATION AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN INDIA Gaurav Da Marin Ravallion Rinku Murgai Working Paper 21983 hp://www.nber.org/papers/w21983 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
More information= ( ) ) or a system of differential equations with continuous parametrization (T = R
XIII. DIFFERENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS Ofen funcions, or a sysem of funcion, are paramerized in erms of some variable, usually denoed as and inerpreed as ime. The variable is wrien as a funcion of
More information5.1  Logarithms and Their Properties
Chaper 5 Logarihmic Funcions 5.1  Logarihms and Their Properies Suppose ha a populaion grows according o he formula P 10, where P is he colony size a ime, in hours. When will he populaion be 2500? We
More informationOsipenko Denis, Retail Risk Management, Raiffeisen Bank Aval JSC, Kiev, Ukraine. Credit Scoring and Credit Control XII conference August 2426, 2011
Osipenko enis Reail Risk Managemen Raiffeisen Bank Aval JSC Kiev Ukraine Credi Scoring and Credi Conrol XII conference Augus  By he reason of risks inerpeneraion: Credi Risk => osses => Balance iquidiy
More informationGrowth, Urbanization, and Poverty Reduction in India
Policy Research Working Paper 7568 WPS7568 Growh, Urbanizaion, and Povery Reducion in India Gaurav Da Marin Ravallion Rinku Murgai Public Disclosure Auhorized Public Disclosure Auhorized Public Disclosure
More informationThe Overlapping Data Problem
Quaniaive and Qualiaive Analysis in Social Sciences Volume 3, Issue 3, 009, 78115 ISSN: 175895 The Overlapping Daa Problem Ardian Harri a Mississipi Sae Universiy B. Wade Brorsen b Oklahoma Sae Universiy
More information13.3 Term structure models
13.3 Term srucure models 13.3.1 Expecaions hypohesis model  Simples "model" a) shor rae b) expecaions o ge oher prices Resul: y () = 1 h +1 δ = φ( δ)+ε +1 f () = E (y +1) (1) =δ + φ( δ) f (3) = E (y +)
More informationFITTING EQUATIONS TO DATA
TANTON S TAKE ON FITTING EQUATIONS TO DATA CURRICULUM TIDBITS FOR THE MATHEMATICS CLASSROOM MAY 013 Sandard algebra courses have sudens fi linear and eponenial funcions o wo daa poins, and quadraic funcions
More informationTIME SERIES ANALYSIS. Page# 1
FORECASTING: When esimaes of fuure condiions are made on a sysemaic basis, he process is referred o as forecasing and he figure and he saemen obained is known as a forecas. Forecasing is a service whose
More informationNumerical Dispersion
eview of Linear Numerical Sabiliy Numerical Dispersion n he previous lecure, we considered he linear numerical sabiliy of boh advecion and diffusion erms when approimaed wih several spaial and emporal
More informationIntroduction and summary
When can we forecas inflaion? Jonas D M Fisher, Chin Te Liu, and Ruilin Zhou Inroducion and summary The pracice of forecasing inflaion has generally been considered an imporan inpu in moneary policymaking
More informationJ. Martin van Zyl Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of the Free State, PO Box 339, Bloemfontein, South Africa
A weighed leas squares procedure o approximae leas absolue deviaion esimaion in ime series wih specific reference o infinie variance uni roo problems J. Marin van Zyl Deparmen of Mahemaical Saisics and
More informationStock Prices and Dividends in Taiwan's Stock Market: Evidence Based on TimeVarying Present Value Model. Abstract
Sock Prices and Dividends in Taiwan's Sock Marke: Evidence Based on TimeVarying Presen Value Model ChiWei Su Deparmen of Finance, Providence Universiy, Taichung, Taiwan HsuLing Chang Deparmen of Accouning
More informationKEY. Math 334 Midterm I Fall 2008 sections 001 and 003 Instructor: Scott Glasgow
1 KEY Mah 4 Miderm I Fall 8 secions 1 and Insrucor: Sco Glasgow Please do NOT wrie on his eam. No credi will be given for such work. Raher wrie in a blue book, or on our own paper, preferabl engineering
More informationTwo Coupled Oscillators / Normal Modes
Lecure 3 Phys 3750 Two Coupled Oscillaors / Normal Modes Overview and Moivaion: Today we ake a small, bu significan, sep owards wave moion. We will no ye observe waves, bu his sep is imporan in is own
More informationRelatedness and Technological Change in Cities: The rise and fall of. technological knowledge in U.S. metropolitan areas from 1981 to 2010
Relaedness and Technological Change in Ciies: The rise and fall of echnological knowledge in U.S. meropolian areas from 1981 o 2010 Ron Boschma *, PierreAlexandre Balland, Dieer Franz Kogler β, * CIRCLE,
More informationMANAGEMENT SCIENCE doi /mnsc ec pp. ec1 ec20
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE doi.287/mnsc.7.82ec pp. ec ec2 ecompanion ONLY AVAILABLE IN ELECTRONIC FORM informs 28 INFORMS Elecronic Companion Saffing of TimeVarying Queues o Achieve TimeSable Performance by
More informationWisconsin Unemployment Rate Forecast Revisited
Wisconsin Unemploymen Rae Forecas Revisied Forecas in Lecure Wisconsin unemploymen November 06 was 4.% Forecass Poin Forecas 50% Inerval 80% Inerval Forecas Forecas December 06 4.0% (4.0%, 4.0%) (3.95%,
More informationSection 4.4 Logarithmic Properties
Secion. Logarihmic Properies 59 Secion. Logarihmic Properies In he previous secion, we derived wo imporan properies of arihms, which allowed us o solve some asic eponenial and arihmic equaions. Properies
More informationProblemas das Aulas Práticas
Mesrado Inegrado em Engenharia Elecroécnica e de Compuadores Conrolo em Espaço de Esados Problemas das Aulas Práicas J. Miranda Lemos Fevereiro de 3 Translaed o English by José Gaspar, 6 J. M. Lemos, IST
More informationMeasurement of Potential Output for Turkey: Unobserved Components Model
Firs Draf Measuremen of Poenial Oupu for Turkey: Unobserved Componens Model Fehi Öğünç, Dilara Ece * Cenral Bank of he Republic of Turkey Saisics Deparmen 06100 UlusAnkara Fehi.Ogunc@cmb.gov.r Phone:
More informationFORECASTING WITH REGRESSION
FORECASTING WITH REGRESSION MODELS Overview of basic regression echniques. Daa analysis and forecasing using muliple regression analysis. 106 Visualizaion of Four Differen Daa Ses Daa Se A Daa Se B Daa
More informationThe Effect of Nonzero Autocorrelation Coefficients on the Distributions of DurbinWatson Test Estimator: Three Autoregressive Models
EJ Exper Journal of Economi c s ( 4 ), 859 9 4 Th e Au h or. Publi sh ed by Sp rin In v esify. ISS N 3 5 97 7 4 Econ omics.e xp erjou rn a ls.com The Effec of Nonzero Auocorrelaion Coefficiens on he
More informationLongest Common Prefixes
Longes Common Prefixes The sandard ordering for srings is he lexicographical order. I is induced by an order over he alphabe. We will use he same symbols (,
More informationStat 601 The Design of Experiments
Sa 601 The Design of Experimens Yuqing Xu Deparmen of Saisics Universiy of Wisconsin Madison, WI 53706, USA December 1, 2016 Yuqing Xu (UWMadison) Sa 601 Week 12 December 1, 2016 1 / 17 Lain Squares Definiion
More informationHomework 4 (Stats 620, Winter 2017) Due Tuesday Feb 14, in class Questions are derived from problems in Stochastic Processes by S. Ross.
Homework 4 (Sas 62, Winer 217) Due Tuesday Feb 14, in class Quesions are derived from problems in Sochasic Processes by S. Ross. 1. Le A() and Y () denoe respecively he age and excess a. Find: (a) P{Y
More informationComputation of the Effect of Space Harmonics on Starting Process of Induction Motors Using TSFEM
Journal of elecrical sysems Special Issue N 01 : November 2009 pp: 4852 Compuaion of he Effec of Space Harmonics on Saring Process of Inducion Moors Using TSFEM Youcef Ouazir USTHB Laboraoire des sysèmes
More informationWavelet Variance, Covariance and Correlation Analysis of BSE and NSE Indexes Financial Time Series
Wavele Variance, Covariance and Correlaion Analysis of BSE and NSE Indexes Financial Time Series Anu Kumar 1*, Sangeea Pan 1, Lokesh Kumar Joshi 1 Deparmen of Mahemaics, Universiy of Peroleum & Energy
More informationSchool and Workshop on Market Microstructure: Design, Efficiency and Statistical Regularities March 2011
222912 School and Workshop on Marke Microsrucure: Design, Efficiency and Saisical Regulariies 2125 March 2011 Some mahemaical properies of order book models Frederic ABERGEL Ecole Cenrale Paris Grande
More informationExponential Smoothing
Exponenial moohing Inroducion A simple mehod for forecasing. Does no require long series. Enables o decompose he series ino a rend and seasonal effecs. Paricularly useful mehod when here is a need o forecas
More informationChapter 7 Response of Firstorder RL and RC Circuits
Chaper 7 Response of Firsorder RL and RC Circuis 7. The Naural Response of RL and RC Circuis 7.3 The Sep Response of RL and RC Circuis 7.4 A General Soluion for Sep and Naural Responses 7.5 Sequenial
More informationSection 4.4 Logarithmic Properties
Secion. Logarihmic Properies 5 Secion. Logarihmic Properies In he previous secion, we derived wo imporan properies of arihms, which allowed us o solve some asic eponenial and arihmic equaions. Properies
More informationChapter 3, Part IV: The BoxJenkins Approach to Model Building
Chaper 3, Par IV: The BoxJenkins Approach o Model Building The ARMA models have been found o be quie useful for describing saionary nonseasonal ime series. A parial explanaion for his fac is provided
More informationA Robust Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Chart for the Process Mean
Journal of Modern Applied Saisical Mehods Volume 5 Issue Aricle 005 A Robus Exponenially Weighed Moving Average Conrol Char for he Process Mean Michael B. C. Khoo Universii Sains, Malaysia, mkbc@usm.my
More informationThe Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries
The Dynamic Effecs of Public Capial: VAR Evidence for OECD Counries Firs draf: November 3 This version: May Chrisophe Kamps* Kiel Insiue for World Economics, Kiel, Germany Absrac The issue of wheher governmen
More informationProduct differentiation
differeniaion Horizonal differeniaion Deparmen of Economics, Universiy of Oslo ECON480 Spring 010 Las modified: 010.0.16 The exen of he marke Differen producs or differeniaed varians of he same produc
More informationA Point Optimal Test for the Null of Near Integration. A. Aznar and M. I. Ayuda 1. University of Zaragoza
A Poin Opimal es for he Null of Near Inegraion A. Aznar and M. I. Ayuda Universiy of Zaragoza he objecive of his paper is o derive a poin opimal es for he null hypohesis of near inegraion (PONIes). We
More informationLearning Objectives: Practice designing and simulating digital circuits including flip flops Experience state machine design procedure
Lab 4: Synchronous Sae Machine Design Summary: Design and implemen synchronous sae machine circuis and es hem wih simulaions in Cadence Viruoso. Learning Objecives: Pracice designing and simulaing digial
More informationObject tracking: Using HMMs to estimate the geographical location of fish
Objec racking: Using HMMs o esimae he geographical locaion of fish 02433  Hidden Markov Models Marin Wæver Pedersen, Henrik Madsen Course week 13 MWP, compiled June 8, 2011 Objecive: Locae fish from agging
More informationBiasVariance Error Bounds for Temporal Difference Updates
BiasVariance Bounds for Temporal Difference Updaes Michael Kearns AT&T Labs mkearns@research.a.com Sainder Singh AT&T Labs baveja@research.a.com Absrac We give he firs rigorous upper bounds on he error
More informationAnd the solution to the PDE problem must be of the form Π 1
5. SelfSimilar Soluions b Dimensional Analsis Consider he diffusion problem from las secion, wih poinwise release (Ref: Bluman & Cole, 2.3): c = D 2 c x + Q 0δ(x)δ() 2 c(x,0) = 0, c(±,) = 0 Iniial release
More informationStateSpace Modeling with Correlated Measurements with Application to Small Area Estimation Under Benchmark Constraints
aepace Modeling wih Correlaed Measuremens wih Applicaion o mall Area Esimaion Under Benchmark Consrains Danny Pfeffermann Hebrew Universiy, Jerusalem, Israel and Universiy of ouhampon, U.K and Richard
More informationSolutionbank Edexcel AS and A Level Modular Mathematics
Page of 4 Soluionbank Edexcel AS and A Level Modular Mahemaics Exercise A, Quesion Quesion: Skech he graphs of (a) y = e x + (b) y = 4e x (c) y = e x 3 (d) y = 4 e x (e) y = 6 + 0e x (f) y = 00e x + 0
More informationGeorey E. Hinton. University oftoronto. Technical Report CRGTR February 22, Abstract
Parameer Esimaion for Linear Dynamical Sysems Zoubin Ghahramani Georey E. Hinon Deparmen of Compuer Science Universiy oftorono 6 King's College Road Torono, Canada M5S A4 Email: zoubin@cs.orono.edu Technical
More informationWORKING PAPER SERIES. CEEAplA WP No. 04/2005. Returns to Schooling in a Dynamic Model. Corrado Andini. March 2005
WORKING PAPER SERIES CEEAplA WP No 04/005 Reurns o Schooling in a Dynamic Model Corrado Andini March 005 Universidade dos Açores Universidade da Madeira Reurns o Schooling in a Dynamic Model Corrado Andini
More informationMacroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting Policy in New Zealand. Abstract
Macroeconomic Effecs of Inflaion Targeing Policy in New Zealand Kyongwook Choi Deparmen of Economics, Ohio Universiy Chulho Jung Deparmen of Economics, Ohio Universiy William Shambora Deparmen of Economics,
More informationReserves measures have an economic component eg. what could be extracted at current prices?
3.2 Nonrenewable esources A. Are socks of nonrenewable resources fixed? eserves measures have an economic componen eg. wha could be exraced a curren prices?  Locaion and quaniies of reserves of resources
More information9231 FURTHER MATHEMATICS
CAMBRIDGE INTERNATIONAL EXAMINATIONS GCE Advanced Level MARK SCHEME for he May/June series 9 FURTHER MATHEMATICS 9/ Paper, maximum raw mark This mark scheme is published as an aid o eachers and candidaes,
More informationA User s Guide to Solving Real Business Cycle Models. by a single representative agent. It is assumed that both output and factor markets are
page, Harley, Hoover, Salyer, RBC Models: A User s Guide A User s Guide o Solving Real Business Cycle Models The ypical real business cycle model is based upon an economy populaed by idenical infinielylived
More informationModule 2 F c i k c s la l w a s o s f dif di fusi s o i n
Module Fick s laws of diffusion Fick s laws of diffusion and hin film soluion Adolf Fick (1855) proposed: d J α d d d J (mole/m s) flu (m /s) diffusion coefficien and (mole/m 3 ) concenraion of ions, aoms
More informationAdvanced timeseries analysis (University of Lund, Economic History Department)
Advanced imeseries analysis (Universiy of Lund, Economic Hisory Deparmen) 30 Jan3 February and 630 March 01 Lecure 9 Vecor Auoregression (VAR) echniques: moivaion and applicaions. Esimaion procedure.
More informationEconomic Growth and the Evolution of Preferences under Uncertainty. Stuart McDonald, Rodney Beard, and John Foster
Economic Growh and he Evoluion of Preferences under Uncerainy Suar McDonald, Rodney Beard, and John Foser School of Economics Universiy of Queensland Qld 407 Ausralia January 003 Absrac: In his paper we
More informationDealing with the Trilemma: Optimal Capital Controls with Fixed Exchange Rates
Dealing wih he Trilemma: Opimal Capial Conrols wih Fixed Exchange Raes by Emmanuel Farhi and Ivan Werning June 15 Ricardo Reis Columbia Universiy Porugal s challenge risk premium Porugal s challenge sudden
More information1. An introduction to dynamic optimization  Optimal Control and Dynamic Programming AGEC
This documen was generaed a :37 PM, 1/11/018 Copyrigh 018 Richard T. Woodward 1. An inroducion o dynamic opimiaion  Opimal Conrol and Dynamic Programming AGEC 64018 I. Overview of opimiaion Opimiaion
More informationMechanical Fatigue and LoadInduced Aging of Loudspeaker Suspension. Wolfgang Klippel,
Mechanical Faigue and LoadInduced Aging of Loudspeaker Suspension Wolfgang Klippel, Insiue of Acousics and Speech Communicaion Dresden Universiy of Technology presened a he ALMA Symposium 2012, Las Vegas
More information