AGGLOMERATION, INEQUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

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1 AGGLOMERATION, INEQUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH David Castells-Quintana PhD Candidate and Research Assistant AQR-IREA - Universidad de Barcelona dcastells@ub.edu Vicente Royuela Associate Professor of Applied Economics AQR-IREA - Universidad de Barcelona vroyuela@ub.edu Summary: World trends over the last few decades point to two clear traits in economic growth: rising income inequality and increasing geographical agglomeration of economic activity within countries. The WDR 2009 supports the argument of spatially unbalanced growth (with convergence of living standards); indeed, economic growth is seldom balanced. However, on one hand economic growth does not need to depend on increasing urban concentration in mega-urban regions (Barca et al., 2012), and, on the other hand, the relationship between inequality and economic growth is dependent on the stage of development. Thus, it is pertinent to consider the effects of the concentration of resources, both individually (inequality) and spatially (urbanization), and how these two processes interact with each other. By estimating a dynamic panel specification at country level, this study analyses how inequality and agglomeration influence economic growth. Our results suggest that while high inequality levels are a limiting factor for long-run growth, increasing inequality and increasing agglomeration, as concentration of resources, can be associated to economic growth in countries at early stages of development. Key Words: Inequality, Agglomeration, Urbanization, Economic Growth, Dynamic Panel

2 AGGLOMERATION, INEQUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH I. INTRODUCTION According to World Bank s data, in 1960 almost one third of the World Population lived in cities. In 2010 this figure was above 50% and is steadily growing 1% every three years. At that speed, in 2050 around two thirds of the world population would be living in cities. Cities are the most efficient way for spatially allocating personal, social and economic relationships among individuals. Cities are the place where economic growth happens. As stressed by the World Development Report (2009), economic development is seldom balanced... efforts to spread it prematurely will jeopardize progress (WDR 2009, p. 6). Within countries we also see concentration in the so-called leading areas, what implies increasing national geographical disparities in income, especially in developing countries. In this line, as the WDR states, developing countries may be facing a trade-off between higher economic growth and interventions to induce a more spatially balanced development, which can be highly inefficient in terms of national growth performance. Nevertheless, the same WDR points out the question is whether growing concentrations of humanity will increase prosperity, or produce congestion and squalor (WDR 2009, p. 3). Since 1960, the population in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million inhabitants has accounted for 40% of total World s urban population, and this figure has remained fairly stable over time (40.8% in 1960, and 39.2% in 2010). But urban growth is not only concentrated in large agglomerations. In fact, one of the most distinctive features of urbanisation in Latin America is the rapid growth of small and median cities, and in many developing countries rural and urban areas are more and more interconnected, particularly with small and medium-sized centres. In this line, some authors have recently highlighted that economic growth does not need to depend exclusively on increasing urban concentration: mega-urban regions are not the only possible growth pattern... context and institutions do matter when we consider economic geography (Barca et al., 2012). The OECD 2009 Report also highlights the idea that growth opportunities are both significant in big urban areas as well as in smaller more peripheral agglomerations. Furthermore, the advantages for economic development at country level of a system of cities - of different sizes and specializations - has already been emphasized (Duranton and Puga, 2000). The second major trend that we aim to look at is the increasing income inequality. According to Milanovic (2011a), global inequality (considering everybody s actual income) has risen from a Gini index of 0.55 in the 19th century to 0.61 in the first half of the 20th century, until 0.65 at the beginning of the 21st century. Milanovic (2012) reports additional information on unweighted international inequality (inequality calculated across unweighted GDPs per capita of all countries in the world) plus weighted international inequality (which uses national GDPs per capita but weights them by populations). He finds that since 1952 unweighted international inequality has steadily risen, particularly after the early 1980s. Nevertheless, after a 20 years of mean-income (GDP per capita) divergence, GDPs per capita of the countries of the world have begun a process of convergence since 2001 (Milanovic, 2012, p.14), mostly driven by India. Likewise, when considering weighted international inequality we observe a substantial decrease of 10 Gini points over the last 20 years, basically due to China. However, using recent data on household surveys, Milanovic reports an increase in

3 individual global inequality from a Gini index of 68.4 in 1998 to 70.7 in Moreover, while most of global income differences today depend on [international] location, the recent increases in global inequality are mostly due to increases in inequality within countries. As we recognise these two global trends, we revisit the relationship that can be found between them. The UN Habitat s State of the World s Cities 2008/2009 Report has found that disparities within cities and between cities and regions within the same country are growing. Additionally, the report finds that in cities that have high levels of inequality, rising inequalities are often accompanied by lower economic growth. This relates to the fact that in parallel with growing cities, as a consequence of increasing rural-urban migration processes, there are growing informal settlements or slums. In fact, according to UN-Habitat, approximately 1 billion people (1 in every 6 people on the planet) live in urban slums. On the contrary, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) 2010 Report highlights that, despite we still see nowadays that 35% of the total rural population of developing countries is classified as extremely poor, this figure has come down from around 54% in In this work, we estimate a dynamic panel model at country level and consider not only the effects of levels of inequality and agglomeration, but also the effects of increasing inequality and agglomeration on economic growth. We analyse results based on different country s conditions: its level of development (measured by per capita income as has been done in previous works) and its level of income distribution. II. AGGLOMERATION, INEQUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: WHAT DOES THE THEORY SAY? 1. Concentration of resources good at early stages of development The works from Simon Kuznets and W. Arthur Lewis in the 1950s postulate that income inequality tends to increase in the early stages of development and then fall once a certain average income is attained. The Kuznets model assumes perfect labour mobility and a timeconstant ratio of the mean incomes between urban and rural areas, while income distribution is supposed to be more uneven in urban than rural areas. The consequence arising from these models is that economic growth is likely to be associated with increasing urbanization and income inequality in the short and medium term, but as income increases and a country develops (and becomes more urbanized), inequalities are expected to decrease in the long term. Likewise, Williamson (1965) analysed a panel of 24 countries and found that regional inequalities also follow an inverted-u curve according to the country s level of development. Subsequently, Henderson s (1974) introduced urbanisation issues, by considering that the relationship between urban concentration and per capita income also follows an inverted-u pattern. Thus, inequality and urbanization, at least at early stages of development, would be associated to economic growth; they represent capital accumulation and a country transformation from a rural to an urban society where productivity is much higher. In fact, we can find empirical evidence for the benefits of concentration of resources. At the individual level, there is evidence of a positive relationship between inequality and growth, at least in the short run: in the short and medium term, an increase in a country s level of income inequality has a significant positive relationship with subsequent economic growth (Forbes 2000). At the 3

4 spatial level, we can also find empirical evidence supporting the benefits of urbanization (Henderson 2003; Brülhart and Sbergami, 2009) and urban concentration (Duranton and Puga, 2004; Rosenthal and Strange, 2004) for growth, especially in developing countries (Berinelli and Strobl, 2007; WDR, 2009). Urbanization takes place as people and resources are reallocated from agricultural activities towards industrial activities -where value added is higher. Thus, urbanization represents spatial concentration of production factors necessary for growth, and this concentration itself reinforces labour s reallocation towards larger urban areas (Ross, 2000). 2. When concentration goes too far The strength of the benefits of agglomeration economies for growth - either from concentration of resources at individual or at geographical level seems, nevertheless, to have a limit. In fact, the relationship between inequality and growth, and between urbanization and growth, is complex and dependent on several factors. Literature on inequality suggests that its effects on economic growth indeed depend on several factors. For poor countries high inequality becomes harmful in the long run (Partridge, 1997; Barro, 2000). Similarly, increases in inequality harm growth specially when initial income distribution is already high (Chen, 2003). Additionally, the profile of inequality itself matters; inequality at the top of the distribution has a positive effect on growth but inequality at the bottom has a negative one (Voitchovsky, 2005). Moreover, most empirical work on inequality and subsequent long-run growth reports a negative effect (Alesina and Rodrik, 1994; Persson and Tabellini, 1994; Clarke, 1995; Perotti, 1996; Easterly, 2007 and Kanbur and Spence, 2010). Regarding urbanization measures, the literature also suggests that their effects on growth depend on income levels (Henderson, 2003; Brülhart and Sbergami, 2009). In fact, it has been suggested that while geographical concentration of economic activity is likely to enhance grow in early stages of development, it can retard it in later stages due to congestion diseconomies (Williamson, 1965). Brülhart and Sbergami find a critical level of per capita GDP of US $ (in 2006 prices) from which higher urbanization becomes detrimental for growth. As with inequality, we could also expect that the effects of urban concentration on economic growth depend as well on initial levels of concentration -whether in terms of urbanization or in terms of income distribution- and on the profile of urban concentration itself. 3. Increasing inequality and increasing urban concentration As we have already seen, the relationship between development and income inequality described by Kuznets is highly related to urbanization processes. In fact, the income-effect of inequality on economic growth described in Partridge (1997) and Barro (2000) is about development, and it can be measured both in income terms and of course in urbanization terms. Two reasons to explain this inverted-u relationship between urbanization and inequality can be given. On one hand, the mean income differential between the agricultural sector and the urban sector, and the progressive migration from the first to the second, is enough to give the inverted-u relationship (Robinson, 1976; Knight, 1976; Fields, 1979). On the other hand, this relationship can also be explained by income differentials within the urban sector, where a higher variance is expected. In later stages of development, inequality falls back as urbanization increases: the exodus from agriculture raises rural wages and lowers 4

5 willingness to migrate at risk of urban underemployment (Rauch, 1993). But if conditions are dramatic between the urban and rural areas, incentives to migrate are going to be very high. In fact, dramatic differences between conditions in rural areas and expected income in urban ones help us to explain the rapid rise of urban slums characteristic of the developing world (that end up with high levels of urban concentration as with high urban-rural inequality and high intra-urban inequality as well). Anyhow, urban slums are also related to a lack of response from the supply size and not an inevitable consequence of urbanization. In any case, the capacities that countries have to benefit from agglomeration economies - due to concentration of resources both at the individual as at the spatial level - and to avoid the risks of congestion vary significantly from country to country. As we have already mentioned, the process of urbanization and urban concentration can be driven by different forces (Kim 2008) and evolve in different forms; Bloom et al. (2008) compare industrialization-driven urbanization against urbanization due to population pressure and conflict, with dramatically different results. Likewise, higher inequality can represent different dynamics: it can be the result of market dynamics, associated to growth, or the result of socio-institutional factors with most probabilities harmful for growth (Easterly, 2007). In this sense, identifying the nature of the processes of concentration of resources - that is, of inequality and urban concentration - and the forces behind them in each country, becomes of mayor relevance before policy design. In this line, institutional arrangements arise as a key factor. Thus, if urbanisation and agglomeration can be seen as a positive process for development, at the same time where institutions are insufficiently developed, it may well be the case that urban expansion is the only realistic option for overcoming institutional problems and promoting growth and development (Barca et al., 2012). Urbanisation can be the result not only of agglomeration forces (pull forces toward cities), but also of a lack of a proper institutional environment in a country, where the displacement of people and resources from the rural to the urban areas can be given by pathological non-economic factors, such as war, ethnic conflict and bright lights, rather than by agglomeration economies and higher productivity (Kim, 2008). Furthermore, the process of urban concentration is likely to lead, sooner or later and especially when institutional conditions are not appropriate, to congestion diseconomies. What becomes evident is the need of a more segregated analysis of the effect of inequality and urban concentration on economic growth differentiating among countries at different stages of development. III. DATA For the analysis done in this work, given the complexity of the data problem and acknowledging recent concerns about the use of inequality data in previous literature, we follow Gruen and Klasen (2008) and use their Gini coefficients. 1 These come from the WIID database, are adjusted for different possible object of measure, and relate to households or families and for the entire population. We use GROWTH, as our dependent variable, which reflects accumulated annual average per capita GDP growth rate. A table with the definition and sources of all the variables considered 1 The main and most complete dataset on Gini coefficients comes from the World Income Inequality Database (WIID-WIDER). Besides quality, there are three important details of the construction of Gini coefficients relevant to take into account when we use these coefficients to study interactions between inequality and economic growth: 1) the object of measure - gross income, net income, expenditure or consumption-, 2) the unit of measure -individual, family or household-, and, 3) the coverage of data -urban, rural or all. 5

6 is displayed in Annex 1. As independent variables we use, for each period, the initial level of per capita GDP in logs (LOG_PCGDP), the initial price of investment (PI), the initial level of years of schooling (SCHOOLING), the initial level of Gini coefficient (INEQUALITY) and a measure for agglomeration. To measure agglomeration at country level we try urbanization measures: the initial rate of urbanization (URB) and the initial rate of population in agglomerations of more than 1 million as % of total population (URB_1M), which captures urban concentration Our sample includes 51 countries with data for , taking data for 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 to explain growth in each subsequent decade in the panel. The selected countries are those for which reliable data for all the variables used here has been found. The sample, although relatively small, includes major countries from all different world regions and gives enough information for the purpose of the work. A list of the countries considered is annex 2. Table 1 shows descriptive statistics for main variables. The variance of each variable can decomposed into between variance, which reflects the variance between countries, and within variance, which reflects the variance over time within countries. The variation of the variables in levels tends to be more attributable to cross-section differences between countries. If we take the variables in changes, however, both the between (cross-section) and within (over time) variation have approximately equal explanatory power. Table 1: Descriptive statistics Std. Dev. Mean Overall Between Within Maximum Minimum GROWTH LOG_PCGDP SCHOOLING PI INEQUALITY URB URB_1M INEQUALITY URB URB_1M Included observations: 204 for variables in levels, 203 for variables in changes. IV. ESTIMATION AND RESULTS We use panel data based on four periods: , , and We follow a neoclassical econometric model of economic growth in which we control for conditional convergence, levels of human capital and investment, and in which we introduce measures of inequality and agglomeration. However, some authors argue that it is the change in inequality, not only the level of inequality, what matters (Chen, 2003, Banerjee and Duflo, 2003). Moreover, economic theory, as we have seen, suggests that the process of increasing agglomeration interacts with that of increasing inequality - as resources concentrate - and that both are likely to influence economic growth. We, therefore, also consider changes in inequality (country s growth of inequality in the previous ten years) as well as changes in 6

7 agglomeration (country s growth of agglomeration also in the previous ten years) and interaction terms between both processes. Model 1: Where is initial per capita GDP, is agglomeration, is inequality and all the controls. Three main econometric problems arise from estimating model 1: reverse causality, unobserved time-invariant country-specific characteristics, and the presence of initial income as a regressor. System-GMM (Blundell and Bond, 1998) estimates address these problems and are expected to be more efficient than any other dynamic GMM estimators, especially when the coefficient of the lagged dependent variable is close to one and the between sample variance is large compared to the within sample variance (as is our case). Tables 2 and 3 report results for 7 different specifications (in table 2 we use URB_1M as measure for agglomeration, while in table 3 we use URB). We start by considering the two variables reflecting increasing inequality and increasing agglomeration - the variables in changes - (results in column 1). We then further add and interaction term between the two variables (column 2). Specification 3 only introduces the interaction term. According to Partridge (1997) and Barro (2000) it is important to distinguish between whether the country has a low or high income; specification 4 takes this into account (categorizing each country relative to the period median). According to Chen (2003) the effect of increasing inequality depends on initial levels of inequality; specification 5 distinguishes between initially equal and unequal countries (again using the period median). Specification 6 mixes both criteria; it segregates the effects between 4 groups of countries depending on country s initial conditions; whether their initial levels of inequality and of income are low or high. Specification 7 considers both processes - increasing inequality and increasing agglomeration - interacting with each other and again for the different inequality and income levels. All seven specifications are made by System-GMM using two-step estimation and Windmaijer s (2005) finite sample robust error correction. 7

8 Dependent Variable: LOG_PCGDP(t) Table 2: Estimations using URB_1M as measure for agglomeration Variable Coeff. s.e. Coeff. s.e. Coeff. s.e. Coeff. s.e. Coeff. s.e. Coeff. s.e. Coeff. s.e. LOG_PCGDP(t-1) *** *** *** *** *** *** *** SCHOOLING(t-1) ** ** * ** * ** ** PI(t-1) ** *** ** ** ** *** ** INEQUALITY(t-1) *** *** *** *** *** *** *** URB_1M(t-1) *** *** *** ** ** *** ΔINE ΔURB_1M ΔINE*ΔURB_1M ΔURB_1M*GDP_LOW * ΔURB_1M*GDP_HIGH ** ΔINE*GDP_LOW ΔINE*GDP_HIGH ΔURB_1M*GINI_LOW *** ΔURB_1M*GINI_HIGH ΔINE*GINI_LOW ΔINE*GINI_HIGH ΔURB_1M*GDP_LOW*GINI_LOW *** ΔURB_1M*GDP_HIGH*GINI_LOW ΔURB_1M*GDP_LOW*GINI_HIGH ΔURB_1M*GDP_HIGH*GINI_HIGH ** ΔGINI*GDP_LOW*GINI_LOW ΔGINI*GDP_HIGH*GINI_LOW ΔGINI*GDP_LOW*GINI_HIGH ΔGINI*GDP_HIGH*GINI_HIGH ΔINE*ΔURB_1M*GDP_LOW*GINI_LOW *** ΔINE*ΔURB_1M*GDP_HIGH*GINI_LOW ΔINE*ΔURB_1M*GDP_LOW*GINI_HIGH ΔINE*ΔURB_1M*GDP_HIGH*GINI_HIGH CONSTANT *** *** *** *** *** *** *** Obs ar1 p-value J stat p-value Estimation by System GMM using variables lagged 2 and 3 periods as instruments. Period dummies in all estimations not shown. Robust standard errors clustered by continent. Δ represents change between t-2 and t-1. Asterisks indicate significance: *** 1%, ** 5% and * 10% 8

9 Table 3: Estimations using URB as measure for agglomeration Dependent Variable: LOG_PCGDP(t) Variable Coeff. s.e. Coeff. s.e. Coeff. s.e. Coeff. s.e. Coeff. s.e. Coeff. s.e. Coeff. s.e. LOG_PCGDP(t-1) *** *** *** *** *** *** *** SCHOOLING(t-1) ** ** ** *** PI(t-1) * ** * ** * ** INEQUALITY(t-1) *** *** *** *** ** * *** URB(t-1) ΔINE ΔURB * * ΔINE*ΔURB ΔURB*GDP_LOW ΔURB*GDP_HIGH ΔINE*GDP_LOW ΔINE*GDP_HIGH ΔURB*GINI_LOW *** ΔURB*GINI_HIGH ΔINE*GINI_LOW ΔINE*GINI_HIGH ΔURB*GDP_LOW*GINI_LOW *** ΔURB*GDP_HIGH*GINI_LOW * ΔURB*GDP_LOW*GINI_HIGH ΔURB*GDP_HIGH*GINI_HIGH ΔGINI*GDP_LOW*GINI_LOW * ΔGINI*GDP_HIGH*GINI_LOW ΔGINI*GDP_LOW*GINI_HIGH ΔGINI*GDP_HIGH*GINI_HIGH ΔINE*ΔURB*GDP_LOW*GINI_LOW *** ΔINE*ΔURB*GDP_HIGH*GINI_LOW ΔINE*ΔURB*GDP_LOW*GINI_HIGH ΔINE*ΔURB*GDP_HIGH*GINI_HIGH CONSTANT ** *** *** ** ** * *** Obs ar1 p-value J stat p-value Estimation by System GMM using variables lagged 2 and 3 periods as instruments. Period dummies in all estimations not shown. Robust standard errors clustered by continent. Δ represents change between t-2 and t-1. Asterisks indicate significance: *** 1%, ** 5% and * 10% 9

10 Our results when using urban concentration - table 2 - show: 1) growth in agglomeration - measured as the within country s change in URB_1M - seems to be have a significant effect, but it varies with the level of development. Thus there is a positive effect at early stages of development (low income), but becoming negative thereafter (specification 4). In fact, the significance of the positive effect disappears not only when income levels are high but also when inequality levels are high (specification 5). Moreover, it is only when both these levels are low that increasing urban concentration is good for growth. If income and inequality are both high, the coefficient becomes significantly negative; congestion diseconomies become relevant in high-income, high-inequality countries (specification6). 2) In the case of increasing inequality, the coefficient for the change in inequality over time is insignificant in all specifications. However, specification 7 suggests that increasing inequality can be good for growth when combined with increasing agglomeration, again as long as countries do not already have high levels of income and inequality. If instead of using urban concentration as our measure for agglomeration, we use urbanization -table 3 - we obtain slightly different results. In this case, although higher initial levels of urbanization do not seem to affect growth (as was the case in the results of Table 2), the coefficient for increasing urbanization (the within country change in URB) is positive and significant no matter the country s level of income (specification 1 and 2). As such, increasing urbanization seems to be associated to growth. However, again, this positive effect is no longer significant when inequality is high (specification 5). As for increasing inequality, this variable seems to have a significant and positive effect on growth, but again only in lowincome, low-inequality countries (specification 6). A comparison of the results in Tables 3 and 2 seems to tell us that high urban concentration levels are positively related to subsequent economic growth, while the correlation with urbanization levels is not significant. However, it might be the case that for small to mediumsized cities (where higher rates of urbanization do not necessarily imply greater urban concentration at country levels), the process of increasing agglomeration, as opposed to its level, is indeed positively related to growth. This occurs, in particular, if inequality levels remain relatively low. A further difference between the results obtained with URB and those obtained with URB_1M is that increasing urbanization (URB) seems to be positive and significant for the full sample of countries, while increasing urban concentration seems to be positive and significant only for low-income countries and can degenerate into congestion diseconomies in high-income countries. V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION This paper has studied the effects of income inequality and agglomeration at country level on economic growth. In doing so, we have taken into account not only the levels of the variables but also their evolution over time within countries, as well as the interaction between both processes. In the case of the levels of the variables, our empirical results seem to show, in line with previous literature, that high inequality levels limit growth in the long run. Yet, and also in line with the literature, urban concentration tends to foster growth. Here, the possibilities for higher growth can be associated to the potential growth-enhancing agglomeration economies that countries experience as economic activity concentrates at the urban level. In the case of the process of increasing inequality and agglomeration (i.e., the variables of change rather than in levels), initial conditions seem fundamental, whether the country is relatively poor or rich and whether income distribution is relatively equal or

11 unequal. Increasing inequality and increasing urbanization enhance growth at early stages of development, when countries are poor and income distribution relatively equal, what we understand reflects a process of concentration of resources associated to economic development. Nevertheless, when inequality becomes too high the benefits vanish and increasing concentration can even degenerate in congestion diseconomies in high-income countries. The policy implications of these findings vary according to the level of development. In the case of low-income countries, it has been argued that they should pursue growth first and then, when growth is secured, tackle problems of distribution - the frequently argued tradeoff between efficiency and equity. This acknowledges the empirical fact that growth is by nature, and at least in the short-run, uneven. This unevenness is, quite crucially, also spatial, associated to the geographic concentration of economic activity (WDR, 2009). Yet, it also seems quite clear that sooner or later, inequality becomes a handicap to growth. Indeed, developing countries that face high income-inequality are indeed also facing greater obstacles to achieving sustained long-run economic growth. Both facts taken together mean that while achieving higher economic growth may imply higher inequality due to higher concentration of resources and economic activity in the short-run, it also implies efforts for better income distribution in the long run as a reinforcing, as opposed to confronting, economic growth. For high-income countries congestion diseconomies seem to be an issue that has to be addressed. A more balanced urban system, where small to medium size cities play a fundamental role in the mobilization of local assets to exploit local synergies, seems to be a better strategy than intense urban concentration (OCDE, 2009). V. BIBLIOGRAPHY Alesina, A. and Rodrik, D. (1994). Distributive politics and economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109, Banerjee, A. V., & Duflo, E. (2003). Inequality and Growth: What Can the Data Say? Journal of Economic Growth, 8(3), Barca, F., McCann, P., & Rodríguez-Pose, A. (2012). The case for regional development intervention: Place-based versus place-neutral approaches. Journal of Regional Science, 52(1), Barro, R. J. (2000). Inequality and growth in a panel of countries. Journal of Economic Growth, 5, Bertinelli, L., & Strobl, E. (2007). Urbanisation, Urban Concentration and Economic Development. Urban Studies, 44(13), Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Fink, G. (2008). Urbanization and the wealth of nations. Science, (New York, N.Y.), 319(5864), Blundell, R. and Bond, S. (1998). Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models. Journal of Econometrics, 87,

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14 World Bank. (2009). World Development Report 2009: Reshaping economic geography. Washington D.C: World Bank. VI. ANNEXES Annex 1: Considered variables Variable Description Source GROWTH LOG_PCGDP Accumulated annual average per capita GDP growth rate Per capita GDP (in log) Constructed with data from Summers and Heston, using real GDP chain data (rgdpch) Constructed with data from Summers and Heston, using real GDP chain data (rgdpch) PI Price of investment Summers and Heston SCHOOLING Mean years of schooling, age 15+, total World Bank* INEQUALITY Gini coefficient Gruen and Klasen 2008** URB_1M Population in agglomerations of more than one million as percentage of urban population. World Bank URB Urban population as percentage of total population World Bank * Missing values for MDG and NGA filled using IIASA/VID Projection. ** Missing values filled taking tends: BOL 1980 y 2000, ECU 1980, EGY 1980, HND 1980, KOR 1980, NPL 1990, PER 1980 ZAF 1980, TZA 1980 and ZMB Annex 2: List of countries considered Country Country Country Australia Honduras Norway Bangladesh Hong Kong Pakistan Belgium Hungary Panama Bolivia India Peru Brazil Indonesia Philippines Canada Ireland Portugal China Italy South Africa Colombia Jamaica Spain Costa Rica Korea, Republic of Sri Lanka Cote d`ivoire Madagascar Sweden Denmark Malawi Tanzania Ecuador Malaysia Thailand Egypt Mexico Tunisia El Salvador Morocco Turkey Finland Nepal United Kingdom France Netherlands United States Greece Nigeria Zambia 14