Paul Krugman s New Economic Geography: past, present and future. J.-F. Thisse CORE-UCLouvain (Belgium)

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1 Paul Krugman s New Economic Geography: past, present and future J.-F. Thisse CORE-UCLouvain (Belgium)

2 Economic geography seeks to explain the riddle of unequal spatial development (at different spatial scales) 2

3 Countries Austria-Hungary Belgium Bulgaria Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Romania Russia Serbia Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Mean Standard-deviation United States

4 Does Geography Matter? transport costs are almost universally ignored in trade models in the sanguine hope that if included they would not materially affect the results (Deardorff) 4

5 The Spatial Impossibility Theorem (backyard capitalism) 5

6 What Are the Alternative Strategies? - Comparative advantage (monocentric city) - Agglomeration externalities (spillover effects) - Imperfect competition (i) oligopolistic competition (spatial competition) (ii) monopolistic competition (Dixit-Stiglitz) 6

7 The Beginnings of NEG The Principle of Differentiation The Home Market Effect 7

8 The Principle of Differentiation Spatial differentiation relaxes price competition P i (x) exp (p i + t x y i )/µ n exp (p j + t x y j )/µ j=1 Agglomeration at the market center is a Nash equilibrium if t 2μ 1 8

9 The Home Market Effect Two regions: H is bigger than F Two production factors: (immobile) labor and (mobile) capital Two production sectors Using labor, one sector operates under constant returns, perfect competition and zero trade costs Using labor and capital, the sector operates under increasing returns, monopolistic competition and positive trade costs 9

10 Samuelson s iceberg trade costs Dixit-Stiglitz monopolistic competition: CES M Q= q(v) O σ 1 market access versus market crowding HME: when one region is larger in terms of population and/or purchasing power, this region attracts a more than proportional share of firms σ ds σ σ 1 10

11 HME: when one region is larger in terms of population and/or purchasing power, this region attracts a more than proportional share of firms an initial size advantage is magnified by trade liberalization 11

12 The Core-periphery Structure or when physical capital is replaced by human capital when workers move to a new place, they bring with them both their production and consumption capabilities 12

13 there is circular causation (à la Myrdal) : manufactures production will tend to concentrate where there is a large market, but the market will be large where manufactures production is concentrated (Krugman) 13

14 Input-output Linkages the agglomeration of the final sector in a particular region occurs because of the concentration of the intermediate industry in the same region, and conversely urban costs bell-shaped curve: spatial concentration first increases, then decreases 14

15 Figure 2: Theil indices for the manufacturing sector 0,8 0,6 0,4 0, Manu. Emp. Total Manu. Emp. Within Manu. Emp. Between 15

16 Figure 3: Theil indices for the service sector 0,8 0,6 0,4 0, Ser. Emp. Total Ser. Emp. Within ser. Emp. Between 16

17 What Next? (i) More general models (ii) Strategic considerations (iii) The dimensionality problem the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem is derived from a model of only two of each of goods, countries, and factors of production. It is unclear what the theorem says should be true in the real world where there are many of all three (Deardorff) 17

18 (iv) Local interactions spatial scale density economies : log pl = α+ βlog den +ε β ranges from 4 to 11% endogeneity simultaneity & omitted variables 18

19 even when we account for a large number of explanatory variables and econometric issues, agglomeration economies remain important β is about 3% the elasticity of wages with respect to density is largely explained by differences in workers skill 19

20 (v) Cities + development (vi) Cities + trade + growth (vii) Cities + trade + the supply chain 20

21 Thank you for your attention 21

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