Assessing Customer Equity using Interval Estimation Method and Markov Chains (Case: An Internet Service Provider)

Transcription

1 Inernaonal Journal of Indusral Engneerng & Producon Managemen (2014) July 2014, Volume 25, Number 2 pp hp://ijiepm.us.ac.r/ Assessng Cusomer Equy usng Inerval Esmaon Mehod and Markov Chans (Case: An Inerne Servce Provder) M. Nema, M.A.S. Monfared & M.T. Taghav Fard * Masera Nema, Maser of Scence, Ind Eng- Tehran-Souh Branch, Islamc Azad Unversy Mohammad Al Sane Monfared, Assocae Professor of Indusral Engneerng- Alzahra Unversy Mohammad Tagh Taghav Fard, Assocae Professor of Indusral Managemen- Allameh Tabaaba Unversy Keywords Cusomer Equy, Markov Chans, Inerval Esmaon, Frs Purchase Index, Repurchase Index 1 ABSTRACT For an effecve predcon of frm s value, s essenal o have nformaon abou cusomer equy. A frm s acons a any me do no only affec he presen cusomers, bu also affec s ably o arac and rean poenal cusomers n he fuure. In hs paper,we assess he number of cusomers n fuure by consderng presen and poenal cusomers hrough accurae predcon of cusomer equy. We propose a new formula for predcng cusomer numbers usng, wo ndces of Purchase Index and Repurchase Index.Boh ndces are modeled by Markov Chans, n whch cusomer equy s compuedbyusng he nerval esmaon mehod of Huang 1. The Markov chans resuls reveal ha durng he course of followng years boh ndces are declnng and hence boh cusomer equy and company s value wll be n rsk. New sraeges such as beer servce qualy and upgraded cusomer suppor sysem would help orecover boh ndces IUST Publcaon, IJIEPM. Vol. 25, No. 2, All Rghs Reserved * Correspondng auhor. Mohammad Tagh Taghav Fard Emal: dr.aghavfard@gmal.com

2 ISSN: hp://ijiepm.us.ac.r/ * (CE) (CLV) maserra.nema@gmal.com mas_monfared@alzahra.ac.r 5-Deghon 6- cusomer equy 7-cusomer lfeme value 8-cusomer aracon aghavfard@au.ac.r 2-shareholder value 3-marke value 4-Blaberg

3 . (PLS) 9-cenral lm heory 10-cusomer behavoral ndex 11-Frs Purchase Index 12-Repurchase Index 13-pas number of cusomer 14-markeng expenses 15-Cusomer Sasfacon Index (CSI) 16- Paral Leas Square 1-cusomer reenon 2-Markov Chans 3- fuure expendure 4-sae-space 5-consumpon behavor 6-cluserng analyss 7- changng rules of scale 8-nerval esmaon

4 RP2 RP1 RP1 RP2 PLS AD IMG IMG RP RP2 IMG5 IMG4 AD1 FPI RPI PCs PCs V-1 1 -Poenal Cusomers

5 PCs O R n-m m P= n-m m Q O R I n P 1-sochasc process

6 R Q T T= P= Q= = R= 0.21 = 1

7 Q= Q= Q= = = = n n m n = = = = = N+ N+ N+ N+ N+ N+ N T

8 N S N S2 S1 N N+ N+

9 RPI FPI X(-1) X WZT WZT YN R(N+) Z(N+) N T= X N = 1-ADSL2+ 2-Dal up

10 R(N+) Z(N+) S X(N+) W(N+) upper lm lower lm T RZ(N+T) RX(N+) WZT upper lm lower lm d() RZ(N+T) RX(N+) WZ(N+) WZX(N+) upper lm lower lm T d() RZ(N+T) WZTX upper lm lower lm

11 Berger, P.D., Eechambad, N., George, M., Lehmann, D.R., Rzley, R., Venkaesan, R., From Cusomer Lfeme Value o Shareholder Value: Theory, Emprcal Evdence, and Issues for Fuure Research, Journal of Servce Research, Vol. 9, No,2, 2006, PP Gupa, S., Lehmann, D.R., Suar, J.A., Valung Cusomers, Journal of Markeng Research, Vol. 41,No.1, 2004, pp.1-6. Blaberg, R.C. & Deghon, J., Manage Markeng by he Cusomer Equy Tes, Harvard Busness Revew, Vol. 74, NO. 4, 1996, pp Blaberg, R.C., Gez, G., Thomas J.S., Cusomer Equy: Buldng and Managng Relaonshps as Valuable Asses, Harvard Busness School Press, Boson, Berger, P.D., Bolon, R.N., Bowman, D., Elen Brggs, V., Kumar, A.P., Terry, C., Markengacons and he Value of Cusomer Asses: a Framework for Cusomer Asse Managemen, Journal ofservce Research, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2002, pp Bayon, T., Gusche, J., Bauer, H., Cusomer Equy Markeng: Touchng he Inangble, European Managemen Journal, Vol. 20, No. 3, 2002, pp Vllanueva, J., Yoo, S., Hanssens, D.M., The Impac of Markeng-Induced Versus Word-of Mouh Cusomer Acquson on Cusomer equy growh, Journal of Markeng Research, XLV, 2008, pp Berger, P.D., Nasr, N.I., Cusomer Lfeme Value: Markeng Models and Applcaons, Journal of Ineracve Markeng, December, 1998, pp Phllp, E.P. & Rober, L.C., Modelng Cusomer Relaonshps as Markov Chans, Journal of Ineracve Markeng, Vol. 2, 2000, pp Xe, J.P., A Sae-Space Model Measurng Cusomer Equy, Chnese Managemen Scence, Aprl, 2005, pp De Movre, A., The docrne of chances, London, Fornell, C., Johnson, M.D., Anderson, E.W., Cha, J. &EverBryan, B., TheAmercan Cusomer Sasfacon Index: Naure, Purpose and Fndngs, Journal of Markeng, Vol. 60, Ocober, 1996, pp Anderson, E.W., Fornell, C., Foundaons of he Amercan Cusomer Sasfacon Index, Toal Qualy Managemen & Busness Excellence, Vol. 11,No. 7, 2000, pp Huang, M., Inerval-Esmaon For Measurng Cusomer Equy, 2nd Inernaonal Symposum on Elecronc Commerce and Secury, 2009, pp