Th e impact of the trans-eu ropean road network and the process of enlargement on regional accessibility in South East Europe

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1 Th e impact of the trans-eu ropean road network and the process of enlargement on regional accessibility in South East Europe Nikolaos Gavanas a, Nena Pavlidou b a PhD, MSc Transport Engineer, Civil Engineer AUTh b MSc Environmental Management AUTh, Spatial Engineer UTh a Corresponding author a,b Transport Engineering Laboratory Department of Civil Engineering, School of Technology Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Thessaloniki, Greece Tel: , , Fax: ngavanas@civil.auth.gr, nicosgavanas@gmail.com Abstract In the period of the ongoing European enlargement, the trans-european transport network aims at the provision of a level of accessibility that will ensure integration and balanced development between the peripheral regions of So uth East Europe with the rest of the European Union. The purpose of the current research comprises the structuring of a spatial indicator in order to assess how the development of the trans-european road network and the potential enlargement of the European Union will affect the accessibility conditions within So uth East Europe. In specific, the research attempts to investigate the changes in the accessibility of the area s major economic centres in relation to the main seaport network by road freight transport. Towards this objective, the proposed spatial indicator is applied in a case study, where the accessibility for the road connections between the urban centers of Belgrade and Sofia and the main seaports in the Adriatic and Ionian Seas is examined under various scenarios at a mid-term and long-term time-horizon. The results from the case study show that partial improvements of the trans-european road network at the mid-term scenario will have limited effect on the overall accessibility, while the long-term completion of the trans-european network combined with the accession of candidate and potential candidate member states will enhance significantly the inter-regional accessibility within So uth East Europe and thus the prospect of regional development and convergence with the European Union. The research concludes with the discussion of the indicator s prospect for the monitoring of accessibility in South East Europe. 1. Introduction Since the fifth enlargement period ( ), the European Union (EU) comprises 27 member states expanding towards East Europe and the Balkans while there are currently four candidate member states and five potential candidates (including Kosovo) that are in the process of accession. After the accession of these countries the whole of South East Europe will become part of the European Union (European Commission, Enlargement, accessed 18th Nov 2010).

2 The lack of motorway infrastructure and the relatively underdeveloped maritime transport system of South East Europe are considered as main obstacles in the process of convergence with the European Union (Commission of the European Communities, 2008). In the context of the ongoing enlargement, the European policy framework concentrates on the development of the appropriate transport infrastructure for achieving cohesion among the regions of the enlarged European Union (Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, 2005). The improvement of transport infrastructure and the strengthening of accessibility conditions are considered as main elements for the future development of the regions of South East Europe, which was obstructed until recently by the unfavorable socio-political conditions (Pitsiava, 2007). More specifically, the European policies for territorial cohesion emphasize on the role of the transport system for the improvement of connectivity between less developed regions and underline that in the countries of South East Europe it is observed a lack of effective road and rail links between economic centers while maritime transportation, which can take the pressure off congested roads, remains underdeveloped (Commission of the European Communities, 2008). In the recent transport policy documents of the European Union it is argued that accessibility is the key concern for the new member states and the countries under accession and that the extension of the trans-european transport network (TEN-T) towards South East Europe consists a main contributor for overcoming peripherality and achieving socio-economic convergence (Commission of the European Communities, 2006). Furthermore, in the Memorandum of Understanding on the development of the South East Europe Core Regional Transport Network it is highlighted that the upgrade of the interregional transport network and the enhancement of connectivity with the trans-european transport network comprise strategic priorities for the accession countries of South East Europe (Memorandum of Understanding on the development of the South East Europe Core Regional Transport Network, accessed 11th Feb 2011). Nowadays, an extended transport network with inter-regional connections and inter-national linkages is under development in South East Europe comprising the following: a) the trans- European transport network, aiming at the promotion of intermodality and sustainable transport throughout Europe by alleviating congestion from central regions and strengthening accessibility in peripheral regions (European parliament and Council of the European Union, 1996), b) the main Pan-European Corridors and TINA (Transport Infrastructure Needs Assessment) priority axes aiming at the connection of the TEN-T with the main international networks and the achievement of territorial cohesion for the regions of Eastern Europe (Directorate General for Energy and Transport, et al. 2001) and c) the Core multimodal Network developed in the context of the Multi Annual Plan (MAP) agreed upon by the candidate and potential candidate member states of South East Europe for the strengthening of networking and the restoration of missing links with the TEN-T and the TINA networks (SEETO Participants, 2008). While the features of both transportation and socio-economic development in South East Europe are constantly changing, the purpose of the present paper- which is based on a research conducted in the context of a PhD thesis (Gavanas, 2011) - is the assessment of the impacts from: a) the extension of the trans-european transport network and b) the gradual accession of the candidate and potential candidate member states on the accessibility by road freight transport. In specific, the research is focused on the accessibility between the major urban centers of South East Europe, which comprise the most significant economic poles, and the main seaports of international importance, aiming at the investigation of accessibility conditions within South East Europe but also the parity of access towards the area s main international gateways.

3 The paper comprises three parts: In the first part there is a brief description of the theoretical background on accessibility indicators. The following part refers to the methodological approach for the development of a spatial indicator for the assessment of accessibility. In the third part, the results of the application of a case study are presented and discussed. The paper concludes with the discussion of the potential contribution of the proposed indicator to the assessment of accessibility within the region of South East Europe in an era of convergence with the European Union. 2. Th eoretical background According to Wegener et al. (2002), accessibility indicators are used to describe the location of an area with respect to opportunities, activities or assets existing in other areas or in the area itself. The concept of the area can refer to a wider region, a node (e.g. a city) or a corridor. From the above definition it can be argued that the assessment of accessibility comprises a wide and dynamic field of research where spatial development meets with transport planning. In this context, the challenge in the development of the appropriate indicator for the assessment of accessibility lies on the following factors (Gavanas, 2011): The measurement of accessibility presupposes the comprehensive analysis of spatial, transport and socio-economic features of the considered area Accessibility as a priority of the European policy coincides with the emergence of sustainable development The st ructuring of an accessibility indicator does not follow a standard methodological approach but it varies according to the specific objective of the study and the spatial level of the analysis. Despite the difficulty in the standardisation of the methodological approach, the common ground on the development of accessibility indicators is that they comprise a combination of two functions: a) the impedance function for the assessment of the generalized cost for reaching the area of destination from the area of origin and b) the activity function, which represents the activity to be reached in the area of destination (Schurmann, et al., 1997). In respect to the specification of the impedance and activity functions, three general types of accessibility indicators can be identified: a) travel cost indicators, where impedance is measured as an expression of travel cost from an area of origin to a set of destinations, b) daily accessibility indicators, where the range of possible destinations is limited by a fixed budget, and c) potential accessibility indicators, where the attraction of an area of destination is weighted according to the specific socio-economic attributes of this area (Spiekermann and Neubauer, 2002; Rodrigue, 2009). Since the early 90s several indicators have been developed for the assessment of accessibility in certain regions or the whole of the European Union referring either to specific transport modes or to the multimodal transport network (Copus, 1999 and 2001; Vickerman et al., 1999; Diego, 2002; Schurmann and Talaat, 2002). These indicators can be classified at one of the types presented above or comprise a combination of these types. A brief overview of the main accessibility indicators applied at the European level according to their spatial level of

4 reference and type of indicator is given in Table 1. Furthermore, there is a significant number of accessibility indicators applied at specific regions of the European Union. Spatial reference Wider European territory European Union and specific neighboring countries European Union Type of accessibility indicator Potential Daily Travel cost Daily/Potential Travel cost/potential Potential Travel cost/daily Potential Travel cost Daily/Travel cost Authors Transport mode Type of transport Grasland (1991; 1999) Cederlund et al. (1991) Erlandson and Tornqvist (1993) MCRIT (1994, 1999) Spiekermann and Wegener (1994, 1996) Baradaran (2001) Bruinsma and Rietveld (1993) Copus (1997, 1999) Schürmann and Talaat (2000) Chatelus and Urbano (1995, 1996) Keeble et al. (1982; 1988) Wegener et al., (2000, 2002) Spiekermann et al. (2002) Gutierrez and Urbano (1995, 1996) Mathis (2000) Lutter et al. (1992, 1993) -* -* *Based on geographical and euclidean distance and irrelevant to transport mode and type of transport -* -* *Based on euclidean distance and irrelevant to transport mode and type of transport Rail Air Rail Air Rail Air Rail Air Multimodal Multimodal Intermodal Freight Freight -* *Based on travel distance and irrelevant to type of transport Rail Air Rail Air Rail Ta ble 1. List of main accessibility indicators at the European level Intermodal Freight Source: ESPON Monitoring Committee, Methodological approach As it has been already mentioned in the introductory section of the paper, the main objective of the present study is the development of a spatial indicator for assessing the impact of the trans-european road network development and the potential enlargement of the European Union on the accessibility within South East Europe. The indicator under consideration can be described as a travel cost/potential accessibility indicator. The review of the relative literature showed that the accessibility indicator developed by Gutierrez and Urbano, aiming at the assessment of the changes in accessibility in the European Union from the development of the first phase of the trans-european road network (Gutierrez and Urbano, 1996),

5 incorporates some characteristics well-suited to the targets put for the proposed spatial indicator, which are: Total travel times are used as an expression of impedance, enhancing the clarity and accuracy of the results During the period of its implementation, the TEN-T was not fully developed but consisted of specific segments dispersed in the area of the 12 EU member states, a situation very similar to that applied in the wider area of South East Europe during the period of the current research. The above findings led to the decision that the development of the present spatial indicator should be mainly based on the Gutierrez and Urbano s indicator properly updated and adjusted to the specific characteristics of the study area. For its update the following indicators commonly used by policy makers at the European level were taken into account: a) the Regional Accessibility index of the SASI (Socio-economic and Spatial Impacts of the trans-european transport network) model that was developed in the context of the 4th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (Wegener and Bokerman, 1998) for assessing the impacts of the trans-european transport network in combination with the main European policies for transport, economic competitiveness and social equity on regional development (Wegener, 2008) and its application in the context of the Potential Accessibility by road of the ESPON Project and b) the Connectivity Indicator applied in the context of the above Project, which aims at the examination of the contribution of the European transport network towards the objectives of sustainable spatial development and territorial cohesion and the consequences of enlargement on the preceding objectives (ESPON Monitoring Committee, 2004). In Table 2 there is a brief presentation of the main features of the above accessibility indicators (referring to their purpose, methodological approach and main conclusions) that were taken into account in the current research. Indicator Purpose Methodological approach Main conclusions SASI Regional accessibility Examination of the impact of the TEN-T development on regional development perspectives. The level of accessibility is related to the development of the TEN-T and the main regional socio-economic features. ESPON Connectivity indicator (icon) Gutierrez και Urbano Assessment of accessibility in relation to the development of the TEN-T road network and the existing maritime connections. Connectivity is related to an attribute of (economic) development. The time-distance between a pair of origin and destination is equal to the total access time. The attractiveness of a destination is related to its socio-economic attributes. The time-distance between a pair of origin and destination is equal to the total access time. The level of accessibility reduces gradually moving from the core to the periphery of the EU. Source: Gavanas, 2011 Ta ble 2. Features of accessibility indicators related with the objective of the present research Furthermore, the adjustment of the indicator s mathematical expression according to the specific features of the study area comprises the subject of the extended research conducted in the context of the PhD thesis mentioned in the introductory section of the paper (Gavanas, 2011). The proposed accessibility indicator can be described by the following gravity function:

6 A i n I j 1 n ij j1 F F j j (Equation 1) Where: Α i F j Ι ij = Accessibility of the origin node (i) = Factor of attractiveness of destination node (j) = Impedance between origin node (i) and destination node (j) In Equation 1 the major urban centers and main seaports of South East Europe are considered as origin and destination nodes respectively. As the equation actually refers to the estimation of travel cost between an origin node and a set of destination nodes weighted by the attractiveness of each destination node, it results to high value of the indicator for low accessibility levels. Thus, Equation 1 was modified as follows in order to correspond to real changes in accessibility: ' 1 A i 100 (Equation 2) Ai Where: A i = Potential accessibility from Equation 1 According to the ESPON Monitoring Committee (2004), the relative attractiveness of a destination in the assessment of accessibility can be expressed by an indicator of its socioeconomic significance. In Equation 1 the relative attractiveness of each seaport (destination node) is expressed by its total annual freight volume (F j.) measured in 10 6 tons/year, which can be considered as an indicator of both the seaport s economic performance as well as its importance in comparison to the rest of the ports in the area s seaport network. The impedance through the network between an origin and a destination (measured in hours) is given by the following function: Where: Ι α Ι n Ι b I h I ij I a In Ib I h (Equation 3) = Impedance of road segments = Delay due to traveling through the outskirts of urban agglomerations = Delay due to border crossings = Obligatory for truck drivers

7 The impedance of a road segment depends on travel time as well as safety and comfort conditions in relation to the Category of a road segment according to the equation: Where: Τ α C α I a T C (Equation 4) a a = Travel time on road segment of Category (a) = Coefficient of safety and comfort for driving on road segment of Category (a) The travel time is calculated by dividing the distance traveled on a road segment by an average travel speed estimated according to the Category of the specific segment. In Table 3 there is a presentation of the Categories of road segments, the average travel speed for trucks and the safety and comfort coefficient. Category of road segment Average travel speed Safety and comfort coefficient Motorway 75 km/h 0,8 National road 55 km/h 1,0 Regional or other road 40 km/h 1,2 Source: ESPON Monitoring Committee, 2004 and Gutierrez and Urbano, 1996 Ta ble 3. Category of road segments, average travel speed and safety and comfort coefficient Traveling through the outskirts of urban agglomerations produces a delay due to the influence of urban and suburban road traffic, which can be estimated using the following function (Gutierrez and Urbano, 1996): I n 15 log P 10 (Equation 5) Where: P = Population of urban agglomeration given in 10 6 inhabitants According to Gutierrez and Urbano, the urban agglomerations with population over 0,310 6 inhabitants were introduced in Equation 5. However, taking into consideration the specific socio-economic characteristics of the medium-sized urban areas in South East Europe as well as the contemporary techniques of urban traffic management, the limit for the population of urban agglomerations in Equation 5 for the present study was raised to 0,510 6 inhabitants (Gavanas, 2011). For the estimation of the delay due to border crossings, two cases are considered: a) both countries are member states and therefore no delay is considered and b) at least one of the countries is not a member state. In this case, an average penalty of 2 hours for each border crossing is added to the total impedance. This penalty corresponds to the average value of wa iting times in border crossings, calculated in the context of the Research Programme European Space and Territorial Integration Alternatives Spatial Planning Observatory

8 Network in South East Europe-ESTIA SPOSE (Urban Environment and Human Resources Institute, et al., 2005). Furthermore, the time for professional drivers obligatory s is calculated according to Figure 1 (ESPON Monitoring Committee, 2004). Figure 1. Driving and times for professional truck drivers Source: ESPON Monitoring Committee, 2004 In Figure 2 there is an illustrative presentation of the methodological approach followed for the estimation of the proposed spatial indicator. According to the figure, in the first stage the alternative routes between an origin and a destination are examined for each scenario in order to find the shortest route (with minimum impedance), which is the route that will be actually used for driving from an origin to a destination. In the second stage, the value of the accessibility indicator for each origin node is calculated according to Equations 1 and 2.

9 Figure 2. Methodological approach 4. Application of the Case study 4.1 Presentation of the case study St udy area The applicability of the proposed indicator and its suitability for the purpose of the analysis is tested with the conduction of a case study for the assessment of accessibility of the major urban centers of Belgrade and Sofia in relation to the Adriatic/Ionian main seaport network. The specific urban centers were selected according to their economic significance and location: Belgrade is the capital and the main economic pole of Serbia (potential candidate member state) located in the northern part of the study area close to the trans-european road axis X, while Sofia is the capital and the main economic pole of Bulgaria (new member state) located close to the center of the study area and linked to the trans-european road axis IV. Thus the study area covers the region of South East Europe that stretches between the trans- European road axes IV and X and the coast of the Adriatic and Ionian Seas (Map 1).

10 Map 1. Description of the study area As destination nodes the main seaports of the Adriatic and Ionian Seas were selected, according to the fulfillment of the following criteria (Table 4): Having a role of competitive or complementary nodes of an integrated seaport network Being connected with the European Motorways of the Sea (MoS) Being classified as Category A ports (according to the TEN-T categorization) Handling a total freight volume of more than tons/year Seaport Total freight (106 tons/year) Year of reference: 2008 Country State of EU accession Rijeka Split Ploce Bar Durres Igoumenitsa Patra 12,39 2,99 5,14 1,99* 2,57 3,56 3,99 Croatia Candidate Montenegro Albania Greece Potential Potential Member State candidate candidate * The port of Bar is included because it handled over tons/year in 2006 and 2007 (SEETO Participants, 2008) Source: SEETO Participants, 2009, Eurostat statistics database Ta ble 4. Selected seaports

11 4.1.2 Data sources In Table 5 there is a presentation of the statistical and spatial data sources used for the conduction of the case study with basic criterion the compatibility of time and spatial reference. Indicator coefficient Population of urban agglomerations Total annual freight volume handled by ports Length of road segment by Category Ta ble 5. List of data sources Data source Urban Audit (Regional Policy-Inforegio) database National statistical databases Eurostat (European Commission) statistics database South East Europe Transport Observatory (SEETO) reports National statistical databases Seaports websites Geographic Information System of the European Commission (GISCO) database South East Europe Transport Observatory (SEETO) reports Trans-European transport networ ks maps Sc enarios A series of 5 scenarios were developed for the assessment of the impact of the trans-european road network and the accession of candidate and potential candidate member states on accessibility. Each row of Table 6 corresponds to a specific scenario. The symbol (x) shows the state either of the development of TEN-T or of the EU enlargement process that corresponds to each scenario. a) Development of TEN-T b) EU enlargement process Accession of candidates and potential candidates Before After 27 Accession priority priority Completion memberstates candidates of projects projects Time reference Scenario (s) Current 1 Mid-term 2 Longterm (integration) Ta ble 5. Case study scenarios According to Table 5, Scenario 1 refers to the current situation, while the time reference for the mid-term (Scenario 2) and long-term scenarios (Scenarios 3, 4 and 5) is 5 years and 10 years after the last enlargement respectively. In Scenarios 3 and 4 it is assumed that the global financial crisis will hinder the progress of territorial cohesion affecting in the long-term the rate of the enlargement process and/or the completion of the trans-european road network respectively (Centre for European Reform, 2008). On the other hand, Scenario 5 corresponds to the optimistic integration scenario (completion of the trans-european road network and accession of South East European candidate and potential candidate member states).

12 4.1.4 Alternative routes The first part of the methodological approach (Figure 2) refers to the examination of the alternative routes that connect each origin node (Belgrade and Sofia) to each destination node (Adriatic/Ionian seaport). According to the features defined by each scenario, the impedances of the alternative routes connecting a pair of origin and destination are compared in order to find the shortest route, which is selected as the route actually used for driving from the origin to the destination. 4.2 Discussion of the results from the case study The analysis of the results from the conduction of the case study leads to a series of interesting findings concerning the changes in accessibility that would follow the development of the TEN-T road network and the accession of the western Balkans to the European Union: In Scenario 1 (current situation) delays are presented due to border crossings between non EU member states. In Scenario 2, the considered TEN-T priority project for the road network of the study area refers to the upgrade of the segment that connects Sofia with the Bulgarian-Greek border along the axis IV (Commission of the European Communities, 2005). The upgraded segment is expected to attract traffic from alternative routes but has limited effect on the overall accessibility conditions of the Adriatic/Ionian seaport network. On the other hand, the completion of the TEN-T road network, as it is examined in Sc enario 3, will lead to a significant improvement of accessibility despite cross-border delays between non EU member states. The most interesting finding from the examination of Scenario 4 is the change in the shortest routes connecting Belgrade with the Greek seaports due to the accession of candidate member state F.Y.R.O.M. Finally, the results from the implementation of the long-term Scenario 5 (integration) indicate a significant improvement in both the impedances and the overall accessibility conditions for the seaport network of Adriatic/Ionian. In Maps 2, 3 and 4 there is a presentation of the shortest routes from Belgrade to each of the selected seaports according to the examined scenario. In addition, among the above shortest routes, the routes with maximum and minimum impedance are highlighted. As it can be observed in Map 2, where the shortest routes of Scenarios 1, 2 and 4 are illustrated, the partial upgrade of the TEN-T road network according to the priority projects of 2005 will have negligible impact on the connection of Belgrade with the Adriatic/Ionian seaport network and will not affect the shortest routes. On the other hand, according to Map 3, which corresponds to Scenario 3, the completion of the TEN-T road network (with no further accession of new member states) is expected to strengthen the connection between Belgrade and the south part of the study area. Finally, according to the shortest routes illustrated in Map 4 corresponding to Scenario 5, the accession of candidate and potential candidate member states together with the completion of the TEN-T network are expected to shift the balance again, as the proximity of Belgrade to the ports of western Balkans will be increased due to the reduction of delays in border crossings.

13 Map 2. Shortest routes for Scenarios 1, 2 and 4 (Node A: Belgrade) Map 3. Shortest routes Scenario 3 (Node A: Belgrade)

14 Map 4. Shortest routes for Scenario 5 (Node A: Belgrade) In Maps 5 and 6 there is a presentation of the shortest routes connecting Sofia with the selected Adriatic/Ionian seaports. From Map 5 it can be seen that, despite the actual travel distance, the connection between Sofia and the seaport of Igoumenitsa presents the lowest impedance due to the high speed and comfort conditions provided by the axis IV and the Egnatia motorway. On the other hand, the completion of TEN-T and the reduction of crossborder wa iting times ( Scenario 5) will lead to a great reduction of impedance for the connection between Sofia and the port of Duress (Map 6). Map 5. Shortest routes for Scenarios 1, 2, 3 and 4 (Node B: Sofia)

15 Map 6. Shortest routes for Scenario 5 (Node B: Sofia) According to Maps 4 and 6 that represent the integration scenario (Scenario 5), the emergence of Ploce (instead of Rijeka) and Duress (instead of Igoumenitsa) as the destinations of minimum impedance in relation to Belgrade and Sofia respectively is expected to strengthen the specific ports potential role as international gateways and promote competitiveness among the Adriatic/Ionian main seaports. Tables 7 and 8 describe the change rates (%) in the impedance values for the mid-term and long-term scenarios in respect to the impedance values for Scenario 1 for the connection of the examined seaports with the cities of Belgrade and Sofia respectively. It can be observed that the highest change rates of impedance are presented in Scenarios 5 and 3. This fact highlights the significance of the completion of the TEN-T road network for the parity of access of the peripheral regions of South East Europe towards the rest of the European Union and the improvement of mobility conditions within its territory. Seaport Impedance (h) Change in impedance (%) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Rijeka 9,78 10,53 0,00 0,00-14,11-13,11 0,00 0,00-34,56-32,10 Split 17,07 26,82 0,00 0,00-9,20-3,06 0,00 2,80-44,35-61,04 Ploce 13,50 23,25 0,00 0,00-10,30-5,98 0,00 0,00-54,74-70,49 Bar 11,07 20,82 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00-18,07-52,83 Durres 14,24 24,74 0,00 0,00-6,25-6,63 0,00 0,00-34,34-58,37 Igoumenitsa 16,48 26,98-6,07-3,71-17,54-10,71-12,14-7,41-34,59-23,91 Patra 19,88 39,38-5,03-25,39-22,84-34,38-10,06-27,93-36,97-43,42 Ta ble 7. Impedance change rate per scenario in relation to impedance value for Scenario 1 (Node A: Belgrade)

16 Seaport Impedance (h) Change in impedance (%) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Rijeka 17,32 27,82 0,00 0,00-14,61-9,09 0,00 0,00-37,70-26,17 Split 22,51 42,01 0,00 0,00-6,89-3,69 0,00 0,00-33,54-39,40 Ploce 18,99 29,49 0,00 0,00-12,95-8,34 0,00 0,00-44,55-31,23 Bar 15,22 25,72 0,00 0,00-7,56-4,47 0,00 0,00-33,84-22,94 Durres 15,71 26,21 0,00 0,00-37,75-59,82 0,00 0,00-63,21-75,09 Igoumenitsa 9,17 9,92-13,63-12,60-21,59-19,96-13,63-12,60-21,59-19,96 Patra 12,57 22,32-9,86-5,56-28,88-56,59-9,86-5,56-28,88-56,59 Ta ble 8. Impedance change rate per scenario in relation to impedance value for Scenario 1 (Node B: Sofia) Furthermore, in Table 9 the accessibility change rate in relation to the value of accessibility for Scenario 1 is presented. As these values derive from the Equation 1, their decrease denotes a corresponding increase in the accessibility level. Accessibility value Change in accessibility value (%) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Node A (Belgrade) 13,43-1,72-13,60-3,44-38,48 21,10-6,32-13,83-7,08-47,25 Node B (Sofia) 16,34-1,77-16,46-1,77-38,37 26,51-1,09-17,20-1,09-35,50 Ta ble 9. Accessibility change rate per scenario in relation to accessibility value for Scenario 1 On the contrary, the accessibility values illustrated in Figures 3 and 4 for the various scenarios under consideration have been calculated using Equation 2. The observation of these Figures confirms the previous findings i.e. the greatest increase in accessibility refers to Sc enarios 5 and 3 showing that the completion of the TEN-T will significantly improve the accessibility in the study area, which will be further enhanced by the accession of the candidate and potential candidate member states. Furthermore, it can be observed that the improvement of specific road segments (according to Scenarios 2 and 4) has limited effect on the overall accessibility.

17 Figure 3. Accessibility value per scenario (Node A: Belgrade) Figure 4. Accessibility value per scenario (Node B: Sofia) 5. Epilogue: Prospects of the accessibility indicator The main obstacle in the process of South East Europe s convergence with the European Union stems from the socio-economic deficiencies of South East European countries (Kafkalas, 2007). The European policy framework emphasizes on the importance of the restoration of missing links between the regions of South East Europe in order to promote socio-economic activity and overcome the above deficiencies. Thus, it is essential to adopt a common methodology for the assessment of accessibility that focuses on inter-regional transport in South East Europe as a wider region consisting of the member states and the candidate and potential candidate member states of the Balkan Peninsula. The experience from the conduction of the case study shows that the proposed spatial indicator can provide useful conclusions concerning the impacts of the development of the trans-european transport network and the process of the European enlargement on the area s accessibility conditions. Moreover, in the context of a full scale analysis, the application of the above indicator can cover all the major urban agglomerations of South East Europe and the seaport networks in the wider area of the Adriatic/Ionian, the Aegean, the Marmara and the Black Seas. Furthermore, other European seaport networks can also be examined in order to conduct a comparative analysis with the seaport networks of South East Europe. Finally, the flexibility of the proposed methodological approach permits its potential adjustment in order to examine accessibility by rail and inland waterway freight transport as well as the accessibility of passenger transportation.

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