GMES TERRAFIRMA. ESRIN/Contract no /03/I-IW. Operational Service Scenarios C11 17 th December 2003 V 1.2. D. Morten, M. Rudrum, R.

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1 GMES TERRAFIRMA ESRIN/Contract no /03/I-IW Operational Service Scenarios C11 17 th December 2003 V 1.2 D. Morten, M. Rudrum, R. Saull NPA/ARUP/Science Systems Reviewed by: Project Manager Ren Capes/ 17/12/2003 Approved by: Project Contract Officer David Morten/ 17/12/2003

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This dossier is one input into the CBA and provides an important foundation for modelling operational scenarios relating to the supply of Terrafirma products and the demand capacity. The dossiers considers the key parameters of both the supply and demand sides. For the supply side the focus in this Phase 1 iteration is based on the generation of a city product unit and consider the associated population covered by each city completed and the population impact by country. For the demand side it is similarly based on city product units but additionally on the potential repeat demand for a city product. This repeated demand for a city is currently modelled on the concept of sale units per million of population within the city and weighted according to range of funding, information readiness as well as political and economic factors. The dossier presents three scenarios for both the supply and demand sides for the period to 2020 namely a worst case, a conservative case and a best case. This dossier and in particularly the spreadsheet analysis is in an early form and the weighting parameters selected will be subject to refinement from a range of partners and indeed the structure of the scenarios lends itself to refinement of the key factors. As a result the objective has been to establish a model for ongoing update and one which can be adjusted to reflect changes in market development and feedback as well as political and economic changes. At this stage there has been no attempt to price the products or the cost of the supply which is currently seen as being a component of another dossier. SUMMARY OF KEY PARMAETERS SUPPLY SIDE The key parameters for the supply side are : No. of Cities Completed with references to population statistics including in particular the city population covered, the country population, the percentage of the population covered by the city products. DEMAND SIDE The key parameters for the demand side are : Demand Factor (No. City Sales per Million of population per annum) for Product set at 2 Ratio of to Historic sales (R=1 for Historic Sales) set at 3 The demand side sale opportunity is calculated as : No. of City Sales per Million x City Population Covered x Demand Factor x No. of Years in Stage x Weighting Factor x Ratio ( to Historic) = D x Pc x N x W(h or u) x G x R (where R=1 if Wh) Copyright NPA and Terrafirma collaborators 2003

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION SCENARIO OUTLINES AND REFERENCE PARAMETERS SUPPLY AND DEMAND GROWTH PARAMETERS SUPPLY ANALYSIS... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 4.1 Initial Delivery Plan : Delivery Levels : Economies of Scale Product Development Investment Level 2 & Level First Iteration of Supply Levels DEMAND ANALYSIS User Segment Analysis Dissimination Systems & Market Reach Political & Economic Factors First Iteration of Demand Levels DEVELOPMENT OF SCENARIOS APPENDIX Copyright NPA and Terrafirma collaborators 2003

4 1 INTRODUCTION This dossier reviews operational service scenarios and will form the basis for forecasting the potential growth in demand and supply of the service portfolio over the period to This version of the dossier C11 Version 1 is a first iteration of the demand and supply parameters which will constitute boundary conditions for the Phase 2 revisions of the Cost Benefit Analysis and future sizing and trading scenarios as referenced in other dossiers. In conjunction with the Strategic Plan and Service Portfolios this dossier will assist in identifying priorities across a spectrum of possible infrastructure changes and mission requirements. This will be achieved by considering how complimentary the demand and supply parameters are. The operational service scenarios are considered under the three main time periods listed below but extended to 2020 in line with the cost benefit study requirements. These time periods are in line with the GMES and ESA GSE timescales based on pre-defined service consolidation logic: the objective being to deliver an operational service that will be fully sustainable within 10 years. The following period is analysed to ensure that a full period of benefit is considered against the early years of investment and cost: GSE Service Consolidation activities: next 2y ( ) GSE Full implementation activities: +3y ( ) GMES full system implementation: +5y ( ) Beyond GMES Implementation ( ). 2 SCENARIO OUTLINES AND REFERENCE PARAMETERS The operational service scenarios dossier is an important input to the CBA and the long term vision of Terrafirma. Taking into account the various timeframes, three main growth/demand scenarios will be considered namely: Scenario 1: worst-case scenario (pessimistic scenario), Scenario 2: conservative scenario (realistic scenario), Scenario 3: best-case scenario (optimistic scenario). This section identifies and describes the rationale of each one of the proposed alternatives. The cost and benefits of each scenario will then be assessed (see following chapters). Copyright NPA and Terrafirma collaborators

5 The scenarios developed are based on the following key criteria : On the supply side : Number of city product covered by the services Availability of the various product levels (L1, L2, L3 and monitoring service), but with the focus on only the Level 1 product at this stage Maturity of service providers and hence the likelihood of the availability of a product/service. On the demand side : Number of city products demanded. The repeat use of city products. The level of product demanded namely historic or update for Level 1 only. The likelihood of the fulfilment of a product/service. Various weighting factors including accession coutnry, information readiness and so on. On the demand side but for a second iteration the following will be addressed: L2 and L3 products will be considered at a later date. Country-Geographical demand related to national policies (liked to PFR). There are a considerable number of further criteria which can be assessed and indeed do form part of the CBA albeit not considered quantitatively here. The operational service scenarios then have a secondary impact for example: What is the necessary Terrafirma system infrastructure in order to fulfil the demand what are the shortfalls. This is considered in part in the existing dossier S10. The population impacted and benefiting from the coverage provided and the uptake secured leading into benefit analysis rather than the city population itself. EO data continuity requirements to fulfil monitoring needs or indeed base level datasets for town/city coverage. Each of the three main different scenarios to be taken into account are set out below in a little more detail: The Conservative scenario (Realistic scenario): it represents the middle scenario, which is elaborated on the basis of the main assumptions of the Terrafirma strategic plan estimates. This scenario relies on the related figures discussed in S1, S3 and S10. Copyright NPA and Terrafirma collaborators

6 However, as the strategic plan only covers the 3 stages (up to 10y) when the CBA is performed over a 20-year period, it was assumed that in the last stage an equivalent number of cities will be processed; however, because focus will be made on additional cities presenting a high level of risks but with less population, the increase in total population covered will be lower (average population of those cities estimated at 100,000). The Worst-case scenario: it is elaborated on the basis of the Realistic scenario, but assuming that a three-year delay is introduced at the end of stage 2; it means that the 166 cities will be covered at the end of 2010, and not 2007 (27.6 cities processed/year in stage 2 and not 55.3). At the end of the last stage (20y) the total population covered by the services will be 10% lower compared to the realistic scenario. The Best-case scenario (Optimistic scenario): it is elaborated on the basis of the Realistic scenario, but for this one it is expected that in 2012 (at the end of stage 3) the main results (number of processed cities and covered population) will be those obtained three years later (2015) in the initial scenario. At the end of the last stage (20y) the total covered population will be 8% higher compared to the realistic scenario. 3 SUPPLY AND DEMAND GROWTH PARAMETERS This section briefly identifies the core parameters used to assess the supply and demand growth potentials. The supply parameters are most easily assessed in the first instant by quantifying the city coverage provided by the service. In future iterative updates of this dossier and associated dossiers greater complexity can be added to the city coverage assessment in terms of the last scene acquisition date or the time span of analysis and the timing of the next update or the area of coverage in each city and so on. Thereby building on the differential between an historic product and an update product. For the purpose of this iteration the number of cities processed regardless of extents is use as a measure or parameter. On the demand growth side the initial focus is on the number of city units requested and the repeat demand requirement for a particular city. This repeat demand approach has been combined with weighting factor to reflect a range of political and economic and technical factors as well as the likely demand historic versus update monitoring products. Similarly in future iterations there is the potential to extend the complexity of the demand parameters. For the time being the split is limited to historic and update however in due course the focus could extend to the user organisation type making the request and country of origin of the request. The global user base of organisations with an interest in Terrafirma (see Global User Needs Directory) has Copyright NPA and Terrafirma collaborators

7 already been categorised in to nine user segments which form the basis for analysing the sector spread of the demand. The user segments are as listed below: 1. Public sector (regulators, local, regional, national authorities). 2. Development initiators and property owners. 3. Insurers. 4. Engineering consultancies. 5. Utility operators. 6. Transport providers. 7. Geo-information providers. 8. Mineral extraction industries. 9. Oil and gas abstraction industries. A number of the user segments are considered as key user segments (see U2. These are further split into 3 categories: Public Sector, Structural Engineering and Extraction Industry. Table 1 below summarises the timeframe being used for the full CBA and its links with the progressive implementation of the full Terrafirma portfolio. It is therefore the logical timeframe structure in which to assess the Operational Scenarios. Stage 1 0-2y Stage 2 2-5y Stage y Beyond Years Type of risk covered Urban subsidence Urban subsidence, Landslides. Urban subsidence, Landslides, Seismicity. Urban subsidence, Landslides, Seismicity. Availability of products Level 1 Level 1, Level 2. Level 1, Level 2, Level 3. Level 1, Level 2, Level 3. Table 1 Terrafirma Development Timeframe Copyright NPA and Terrafirma collaborators

8 4 INITIAL DELIVERY PLAN : The initial 5 year service delivery plan was based on the premise of producing Terrafirma results for nearly 200 cities across Europe. In an early version of some dossiers, for example S5, the supply level for the final Terrafirma service was set at covering 186 cities from the 30 countries. The total Terrafirma service coverage includes 21% (or 117.5M) of the population of ESA member states and EU member and applicant states. The anticipated city coverage by country and the percentages of each country s population covered by the service are summarised in Table 2 below. During Stage 1 of the Terrafirma project it was envisaged that more than 20% of this total service coverage would be completed. Country No. of towns Town Name Pop. Covered Pop. of Country % of pop. covered Austria 1 Wien 1,523,593 8,037, Belgium 3 Gent, Antwerpen, Brussel 1,658,056 10,339, Bulgaria 3 Varna, Plovdiv, Sofija 1,739,258 7,917, Czech Republic 3 Ostrava, Brno, Praha 1,863,871 10,290, Denmark 1 Copenhagen 1,094,421 5,387, Estonia 1 Tallinn 379,043 1,268, Finland 1 Espoo 229,524 5,215,100 4 France 8 Montpellier, Strasbourg, Nantes, Nice, Toulouse, Lyon, Marseille, Paris 4,904,247 59,303,800 8 Germany 32 Kiel, Halle, Krefeld, Aachen, Braunschweig, Augsburg, Chemnitz, Monchengladbach, Munster, Wiesbaden, Gelsenkirchen, Karlsruhe, Mannheim, Bonn, Bielefeld, Wuppertal, Dresden, Leipzig, Nurnberg, Duisburg, Hannover, Bremen, Stuttgart, Dortmund, Essen, Frankfurt, Koln, Munchen, Berlin 17,832,626 81,904, Greece 2 Thessaloniki, Athens 1,108,473 11,100, Hungary 1 Budapest 1,769,459 10,164, Ireland 1 Dublin 1,018,500 3,968, Italy 13 Messina, Verona, Venezia, Catania, Bari, Firenze, Bologna, Genova, Palermo, Torino, Napoli, Milano, Roma 8,821,844 56,209, Latvia 1 Rega 706,220 2,290, Lithuania 2 Kaunas, Vilnius 923,208 3,491, Netherlands 4 Utrecht, The Hague, Rotterdam, Amsterdam 2,068,423 16,258, Norway 1 Oslo 791,500 4,551, Poland 15 Radom, Sosnowiec, Czestochowa, Gdynia, Bialystok, Katowice, Lublin, Bydgoszcz, Szczecin, Gdansk, Poznan, Wroclaw, Krakow, Lodz, Warszawa 7,542,781 38,576, Portugal 2 Porto, Lisboa 823,600 10,366,900 8 Romania 9 Ploiesti, Brasov, Galati, Craiova, Constanta, Timisoara, Cluj- Napoca, Lasi, Bucuresti 4,280,281 21,590, Slovakia 2 Koshice, Bratislava 662,379 5,381, Copyright NPA and Terrafirma collaborators

9 Slovenia 1 Ljubljana 258,020 1,951, Spain 17 A Coruna, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Granada, Gijon, Vigo, Alacant, Cordoba, Valladolid, Palma, Bilbao, Murcia, Málaga, Zaragoza, Sevilla, Valencia, Barcelona 10,504,180 41,547, Sweden 3 Malmo, Gothenberg, Stockholm 2,003,798 8,872, Switzerland 1 Zurich 348,059 7,376,000 5 Turkey 28 Manisa, Trabzon, Balikesir, Tarsus, Batman, Sivas, Gebze, Elazig, Denizli, Adapazari, Van, Kahramanmaras, Erzurum, Samsun, Malatya, Urfa, Kayseri, Mersin, Diyarbakir, Antalya, Konya, Gaziantep, Bursa, Izmir, Ankara, Istanbul 27,389,197 73,197, United Kingdom 21 Derby, Belfast, Plymouth, Wolverhampton, Stoke-on-Trent, Nottingham, Cardiff, Bradford, Coventry, Kingston upon Hull, Leicester, Manchester, Bristol, Leeds, Sheffield, Edinburgh, Birmingham, Glasgow, London, Newcastle upon Tyne 15,300,288 59,040, Table 2: Terrafirma service coverage summary by country The above table is the foundation of the supply side assessment. 4.1 Delivery Levels : The supply side has effectively selected an arbitrary product delivery level. The supply capacity has to be carefully examined and is based on information in S10 and the following measures assessed in the scenarios presented: capacity of existing service providers at current commitment levels on both infrastructure and staffing Data Processing Volumes Stage No of cities to be processed No of cities to be routinely processed per month 1 (0-2yr) (2-5 yr) ( new reprocessed 8 * yr) every 3 years * Rough calculations (need to process 100 new cities, twice, plus original 186 cities 1.5 times, in 5 years) capacity for scaling up capacity for increased automation, batching of existing processes capacity for investment (ability to invest in expansion capability) There are also a number of contributory factors which will effect the ability to respond to these capacity issues. The fragmented nature of the supply infrastructure Limited expertise in niche companies The nature of the service providers is they are SME organisations (offset by larger GS/Core User groups) Copyright NPA and Terrafirma collaborators

10 4.2 Economies of Scale There are potentially some significant threshold levels which if reached might facilitate a more rigorous and large scale production and a more centralised or regional production centre approach. Similarly economic factors are likely to result in more focussed production selection and might distort the current intended coverage. For example it is natural that the service providers will be attracted to the most lucrative target markets. The initial CBA assessment of the savings in the seismic arena suggests that this may become one such focal point. Similarly certain commercial targets might prove a significant draw to the service providers because of their suitability and willingness to embrace the technology. Hence there will be a challenge to maintain momentum on all nine sector fronts. 4.3 Product Development Investment Level 2 & Level 3 The Terrafirma product range is based on three levels of product. The SME generating the Level 1 products are generally committed to the cause but this is not a guarantee for those generating Level 2 and 3 products. For the purposes of this dossier it is assumed that there will be the investment and commitment from the geological survey and others to develop the Level 2 and Level 3 products. These products are specified in the Service Portfolio and the availability of the Level 2 and 3 products is as shown in Table 1. Further assessment of the L2 and L3 advances will be needed in subsequent iterations. 4.4 First Iteration of Supply Levels The first iteration of the analysis is based on the following supply parameters: Per product per service : namely no. of cities produced for each of historic and update products and potentially at a secondary stage for all three levels of product. At present the focus is on Level 1 only. Per country : namely the no. of cities produced for each country Per year : categorised by stage of Terrafirma (option to pro rata to per annum level) The following identified parameters are not used on the supply assessment: Per user-segment : only relevant on the demand side as a city could be sold to multiple applications and different sectors indeed this a major goal of the project. Per-end-user organisation : considered a demand side parameter The details of the analysis can be found in Appendix 1 for each of the three scenarios. A summary of the key parameters is summarised in the table below: Copyright NPA and Terrafirma collaborators

11 Parameter Code Description Impact / Effect on Scenario No. of City products (City Processing Supply by Stage) Historic or Product namely Historic or Population of Cities Covered Average Population of Cities Covered No. only N/A Pc Pa Cites per country produced Historic products are assumed to use the existing archive. products are deemed to use ongoing acquisitions made during the Terrafirma project 2003 and onward. Key factor in identifying potential product targets by country. Supply derived parameter used later for demand assessment. County Population Pt Secondary factor to determine population of country covered. Per Cent Population covered by service Pp Secondary factor to determine per centage of population of country covered. Very High High High Low Low Reference only Low Reference only 5 DEMAND ANALYSIS 5.1 User Segment Analysis It has been decided that at this stage the demand is based on the need for a historic or an update product. As a result the attributes of the user segments is not considered further in this iteration. For reference on future iterations and for completeness the core user segments below might constitute a useful check on this assumption. Hence in the next iteration User Segment Experience Expectations from Core User Partners : TNO Extraction ARUP Engineering etc ENEL Utilities Should be checked to ensure the historic and update only approach is valid and consistant. There is also a feedback loop to be considered here. For example the Supply Side selections might be refined based on Demand side expectations and outcomes. A possible counter measure or weighting is the political need to spread coverage and not focus on demand hot spots or preferred targets. Copyright NPA and Terrafirma collaborators

12 5.2 Dissimination Systems & Market Reach The dissemination and distribution mechanism will have a significant influence on the levels of uptake and the nature of the uptake. At present all demand parameters assume a generic city product without considering in detail the range of product options for example in terms of area covered or even a target point. Hence there is a link here with the system integration and supply chain analyses. The impact of an e- commerce solution which might allow high volumes of transactions on small areas as needed in the property arena is not an integral part of this first phase assessment; indeed the CBA focus is on economic assessment rather than financial assessment for this reason 5.3 Political & Economic Factors The levels to which an individual government or indeed the EC or alternatively legislation (refer PFR eg Aarhuus Convention) develop will have a significant impact. Indeed it could potentially generate a complete shift in the predominance of the market allocation of products between the public and private sectors in terms of service payee. 5.4 First Iteration of Demand Levels The first iteration of the analysis is based on the following demand parameters: Per country: namely the number of cities products that could be demanded for each country. Historic or product: namely the likely increased demand for an update product over the historic archive based product. By weighting factor: namely a factor encompassing various demand criteria including accession status, market readiness, information readiness, cultural and political factors leading to a weighting factor. Demand Growth factor: namely a measure of the increasing maturity of the product acceptance. Per year: categorised by stage of Terrafirma (option to pro rata to per annum level) The following identified parameters are not used on the demand assessment at this stage: Per user-segment : this is not a key demand side parameter in the first iteration as the segments are deemed to have a common need for update or historic products without the need to categorise by segment. This item is to be considered further in a second iteration. Copyright NPA and Terrafirma collaborators

13 Per-end-user organisation : not considered an important demand side parameter at this stage but possibly for further consideration in second iteration once more is understood of the user organisation take-up within each sector. The details of the demand analysis can be found in Appendix 1 for each of the three scenarios. A summary of the key parameters is summarised in the table below: Parameter Code Description Impact / Effect on Scenario Demand Factor D Number of sales per million of population Very High per annum Demand Growth Factor G Increase in sales as service matures by stage Very High Ratio of to Historic Population of Cities Covered R Pc Ratio of update (less than 6 months old) to historic (3 years) products Urban population covered at end of service (M) Key factor in identifying potential product targets by country. Very High High Urban Population Pu Assumed to be 70% of country population Low Average Population of Pa Average city population of cities covered Medium Cities Covered (M). County Population Pt Total country population. Secondary factor to determine selection of proportion of country covered. Per Cent Population covered by service Country Weighting Factor Historic Country Weighting Factor Number of Years in Stage Pp Secondary factor to determine per centage of population of country covered. Wh Factor based on funding opportunity, market readiness, info readiness, cultural and political factors. Low Reference only Low Reference only Medium/High Wu As Wh but for Medium/High N Reflects the term of each stage of the Terrafirma project. Reference. Arbitrary 6 DEVELOPMENT OF SCENARIOS At this stage of Terrafirma there are inevitably areas where the parameters used are largely estimates. The second iteration of this document should focus on developing the following aspects based on further insight gained on the supply and demand parameters. On the supply side: Further assessment of the scope to scale up production and test optimistic production scenario. Prioritisation of bottlenecks Copyright NPA and Terrafirma collaborators

14 Assessment of the raw data supply Requirements and demands of Earthwatch missions On the demand side: Further assess the importance of off-the-shelf products and services at different levels Prioritise city target by considering demand generators eg role of user segments in directing supply considerations to maximise effective production (such as repeat use) Consider appropriateness of the supply side marketing and distribution approaches 7 APPENDIX 1 The following schedules set out the supply and demand scenarios for each of the three cases namely: Scenario 1: worst-case scenario (pessimistic scenario), Scenario 2: conservative scenario (realistic scenario), Scenario 3: best-case scenario (optimistic scenario). Copyright NPA and Terrafirma collaborators

15 Ver. 5 16/12/03 OPERATIONAL SERVICE SCENARIOS Scenario: Worst Case Year Supply Growth Rate Products available L1 L1 L2 Stage 1 0-2y Stage 2 Stage 3 2-5y 5-10y Beyond L1 L2 L1 L2 L3 Monitoring Service Off the Shelf' Service available via TerraFirma 20 cities New cities: 166 New cities: 100 New cities: 100 (including of some landslide sites & few high seismic risk areas) Total cities (end of stage 2): Total cities (end of stage 3): Total cities (end of stage 3): year update (reprocessing) 3-year update (re-processing) 50% 75% 50% Maturity of Service Providers 12% 25% 50% Supplier Aggregate Cities Cumulative Cities CITY COVERAGE & POPULATION IMPACT ASSESSMENT No.of Cities to Total Total Urban Population Pop of cities Per Cent of Urban Pop. Av Pop of CITY PROCESSING SUPPLY BY STAGE be processed Population Assume 70% covered Covered cities covered Listing by Country Types Pt Pu Pc Pp Pa Millions 1 8,037, ,523,593 27% 1.52 Austria Historic 1 4 four 3 10,339, ,658,056 23% 0.55 Belgium Historic ,917, ,739,258 31% 0.58 Bulgaria Historic ,290, ,863,871 26% 0.62 Czech Republic Historic ,387, ,094,421 29% 1.09 Denmark Historic ,268, ,043 43% 0.38 Estonia Historic ,215, ,524 6% 0.23 Finland Historic ,600, ,904,247 12% 0.61 France Historic ,904, ,832,626 31% 0.56 Germany Historic ,964, ,108,473 14% 0.55 Greece Historic ,164, ,769,459 25% 1.77 Hungary Historic ,968, ,018,500 37% 1.02 Ireland Historic ,305, ,821,844 22% 0.68 Italy Historic ,290, ,220 44% 0.71 Latvia Historic ,491, ,208 38% 0.46 Lithuania Historic ,067, ,068,423 18% 0.52 Netherlands Historic ,551, ,500 25% 0.79 Norway Historic ,576, ,542,781 28% 0.50 Poland Historic ,366, ,600 11% 0.41 Portugal Historic ,590, ,280,281 28% 0.48 Romania Historic ,381, ,379 18% 0.33 Slovakia Historic ,951, ,020 19% 0.26 Slovenia Historic ,547, ,504,180 36% 0.62 Spain Historic ,872, ,003,798 32% 0.67 Sweden Historic ,376, ,059 7% 0.35 Switzerland Historic ,197, ,389,197 53% 0.98 Turkey Historic ,789, ,300,288 37% 0.73 United Kingdom Historic TOTALS Demand Growth Rate DEMAND FACTOR (No. City Sales per Million of population per annum) for Product Ratio of to Historic sales (R=1 for Historic Sales) D 1.5 R 2 SALE OPPORTUNITY No. of City Sales per Million x City Population Covered x Demand Factor x No. of Years in Stage x Weighting Factor x Ratio ( to Historic) = D x Pc x N x W(h or u) x G x R WEIGHTED SALES DEMAND PROFILE BY STAGE Funding Euro Opportunity Marketing Readiness of Geo. Survey DEMAND WEIGHTING SYSTEM No. of Years in Stage with data demand N Info Cultural / Wh & Wu Demand Growth Factor G Readiness Political Weighting (%Weighting) % Austria Historic % % Belgium Historic % % Bulgaria Historic % % Czech Republic Historic % % Denmark Historic % % Estonia Historic % % Finland Historic % % France Historic % % Germany Historic % % Greece Historic % % Hungary Historic % % Ireland Historic % % Italy Historic % % Latvia Historic % % Lithuania Historic % % Netherlands Historic % % Norway Historic % % Poland Historic % % Portugal Historic % % Romania Historic % % Slovakia Historic % % Slovenia Historic % % Spain Historic % % Sweden Historic % % Switerland Historic % % Turkey Historic % % United Kingdom Historic % TOTAL EUROPE Historic TOTAL EUROPE

16 Ver. 5 16/12/03 OPERATIONAL SERVICE SCENARIOS Scenario: Conservative Case Year Supply Growth Rate Products available L1 L1 L2 Stage 1 0-2y Stage 2 Stage 3 2-5y 5-10y L1 L2 L1 L2 Beyond L3 Monitoring Service Off the Shelf' Service available via TerraFirma 20 cities New cities: 166 New cities: 100 New cities: 100 (including of some landslide sites & few high seismic risk areas) Total cities (end of stage 2): Total cities (end of stage 3): Total cities (end of stage 3): year update (reprocessing) 3-year update (re-processing) 50% 75% 50% Maturity of Service Providers 12% 25% 50% Supplier Aggregate Cities Cumulative Cities CITY COVERAGE & POPULATION IMPACT ASSESSMENT No.of Cities to Total Total Urban Population Pop of cities Per Cent of Urban Pop. Av Pop of CITY PROCESSING SUPPLY BY STAGE be processed Population Assume 70% covered Covered cities covered Listing by Country Types Pt Pu Pc Pp Pa Millions 1 8,037, ,523,593 27% 1.52 Austria Historic 1 4 four 3 10,339, ,658,056 23% 0.55 Belgium Historic ,917, ,739,258 31% 0.58 Bulgaria Historic ,290, ,863,871 26% 0.62 Czech Republic Historic ,387, ,094,421 29% 1.09 Denmark Historic ,268, ,043 43% 0.38 Estonia Historic ,215, ,524 6% 0.23 Finland Historic ,600, ,904,247 12% 0.61 France Historic ,904, ,832,626 31% 0.56 Germany Historic ,964, ,108,473 14% 0.55 Greece Historic ,164, ,769,459 25% 1.77 Hungary Historic ,968, ,018,500 37% 1.02 Ireland Historic ,305, ,821,844 22% 0.68 Italy Historic ,290, ,220 44% 0.71 Latvia Historic ,491, ,208 38% 0.46 Lithuania Historic ,067, ,068,423 18% 0.52 Netherlands Historic ,551, ,500 25% 0.79 Norway Historic ,576, ,542,781 28% 0.50 Poland Historic ,366, ,600 11% 0.41 Portugal Historic ,590, ,280,281 28% 0.48 Romania Historic ,381, ,379 18% 0.33 Slovakia Historic ,951, ,020 19% 0.26 Slovenia Historic ,547, ,504,180 36% 0.62 Spain Historic ,872, ,003,798 32% 0.67 Sweden Historic ,376, ,059 7% 0.35 Switzerland Historic ,197, ,389,197 53% 0.98 Turkey Historic ,789, ,300,288 37% 0.73 United Kingdom Historic TOTALS Demand Growth Rate DEMAND FACTOR (No. City Sales per Million of population per annum) for Product Ratio of to Historic sales (R=1 for Historic Sales) D 2 R 2 SALE OPPORTUNITY No. of City Sales per Million x City Population Covered x Demand Factor x No. of Years in Stage x Weighting Factor x Ratio ( to Historic) = D x Pc x N x W(h or u) x G x R WEIGHTED SALES DEMAND PROFILE BY STAGE Funding Euro Opportunity Marketing Readiness of Geo. Survey DEMAND WEIGHTING SYSTEM No. of Years in Stage with data demand N Info Cultural / Wh & Wu Demand Growth Factor G Readiness Political Weighting (%Weighting) % Austria Historic % % Belgium Historic % % Bulgaria Historic % % Czech Republic Historic % % Denmark Historic % % Estonia Historic % % Finland Historic % % France Historic % % Germany Historic % % Greece Historic % % Hungary Historic % % Ireland Historic % % Italy Historic % % Latvia Historic % % Lithuania Historic % % Netherlands Historic % % Norway Historic % % Poland Historic % % Portugal Historic % % Romania Historic % % Slovakia Historic % % Slovenia Historic % % Spain Historic % % Sweden Historic % % Switerland Historic % % Turkey Historic % % United Kingdom Historic % TOTAL EUROPE Historic TOTAL EUROPE

17 Ver. 5 16/12/03 OPERATIONAL SERVICE SCENARIOS Scenario: Best Case Year Supply Growth Rate Products available L1 L1 L2 Stage 1 0-2y Stage 2 Stage 3 2-5y 5-10y Beyond L1 L2 L1 L2 L3 Monitoring Service Off the Shelf' Service available via TerraFirma 20 cities New cities: 166 New cities: 100 New cities: 100 (including of some landslide sites & few high seismic risk areas) Total cities (end of stage 2): Total cities (end of stage 3): Total cities (end of stage 3): year update (reprocessing) 3-year update (re-processing) 50% 75% 50% Maturity of Service Providers 12% 25% 50% Supplier Aggregate Cities Cumulative Cities CITY COVERAGE & POPULATION IMPACT ASSESSMENT No.of Cities to Total Total Urban Population Pop of cities Per Cent of Urban Pop. Av Pop of CITY PROCESSING SUPPLY BY STAGE be processed Population Assume 70% covered Covered cities covered Listing by Country Types Pt Pu Pc Pp Pa Millions 1 8,037, ,523,593 27% 1.52 Austria Historic 1 4 four 3 10,339, ,658,056 23% 0.55 Belgium Historic ,917, ,739,258 31% 0.58 Bulgaria Historic ,290, ,863,871 26% 0.62 Czech Republic Historic ,387, ,094,421 29% 1.09 Denmark Historic ,268, ,043 43% 0.38 Estonia Historic ,215, ,524 6% 0.23 Finland Historic ,600, ,904,247 12% 0.61 France Historic ,904, ,832,626 31% 0.56 Germany Historic ,964, ,108,473 14% 0.55 Greece Historic ,164, ,769,459 25% 1.77 Hungary Historic ,968, ,018,500 37% 1.02 Ireland Historic ,305, ,821,844 22% 0.68 Italy Historic ,290, ,220 44% 0.71 Latvia Historic ,491, ,208 38% 0.46 Lithuania Historic ,067, ,068,423 18% 0.52 Netherlands Historic ,551, ,500 25% 0.79 Norway Historic ,576, ,542,781 28% 0.50 Poland Historic ,366, ,600 11% 0.41 Portugal Historic ,590, ,280,281 28% 0.48 Romania Historic ,381, ,379 18% 0.33 Slovakia Historic ,951, ,020 19% 0.26 Slovenia Historic ,547, ,504,180 36% 0.62 Spain Historic ,872, ,003,798 32% 0.67 Sweden Historic ,376, ,059 7% 0.35 Switzerland Historic ,197, ,389,197 53% 0.98 Turkey Historic ,789, ,300,288 37% 0.73 United Kingdom Historic TOTALS Demand Growth Rate DEMAND FACTOR (No. City Sales per Million of population per annum) for Product Ratio of to Historic sales (R=1 for Historic Sales) D 3 R 2 SALE OPPORTUNITY No. of City Sales per Million x City Population Covered x Demand Factor x No. of Years in Stage x Weighting Factor x Ratio ( to Historic) = D x Pc x N x W(h or u) x G x R WEIGHTED SALES DEMAND PROFILE BY STAGE Funding Euro Opportunity Marketing Readiness of Geo. Survey DEMAND WEIGHTING SYSTEM No. of Years in Stage with data demand N Info Cultural / Wh & Wu Demand Growth Factor G Readiness Political Weighting (%Weighting) % Austria Historic % % Belgium Historic % % Bulgaria Historic % % Czech Republic Historic % % Denmark Historic % % Estonia Historic % % Finland Historic % % France Historic % % Germany Historic % % Greece Historic % % Hungary Historic % % Ireland Historic % % Italy Historic % % Latvia Historic % % Lithuania Historic % % Netherlands Historic % % Norway Historic % % Poland Historic % % Portugal Historic % % Romania Historic % % Slovakia Historic % % Slovenia Historic % % Spain Historic % % Sweden Historic % % Switerland Historic % % Turkey Historic % % United Kingdom Historic % TOTAL EUROPE Historic TOTAL EUROPE