Research on Motor Vehicle Ownership of Jinan Based on the Traffic Environmental Bearing Capacity Motor

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1 Assocato for Iformato Systms AIS Elctroc Lbrary (AISL) WHICEB 204 Procdgs Wuha Itratoal Cofrc o -Busss Summr Rsarch o Motor Vhcl Owrshp of Ja Basd o th Traffc Evromtal Barg Capacty Motor Xaxa Y Collg of Trasportato, Bg Jaotog Uvrsty, Bg, Cha Follow ths ad addtoal works at: Rcommdd Ctato Y, Xaxa, "Rsarch o Motor Vhcl Owrshp of Ja Basd o th Traffc Evromtal Barg Capacty Motor" (204). WHICEB 204 Procdgs. Papr Ths matral s brought to you by th Wuha Itratoal Cofrc o -Busss at AIS Elctroc Lbrary (AISL). It has b accptd for cluso WHICEB 204 Procdgs by a authorzd admstrator of AIS Elctroc Lbrary (AISL). For mor formato, plas cotact lbrary@ast.org.

2 436 Th Thrtth Wuha Itratoal Cofrc o E-Busss Huma Bhavor ad Socal Impacts o E-Busss Rsarch o Motor Vhcl Owrshp of Ja Basd o th Traffc Evromtal Barg Capacty Motor YXaxa Collg of Trasportato, Bg Jaotog Uvrsty, Bg, Cha Abstract:I ths papr, th author quatfd th cty traffc vromt carryg capacty o th bass of th rlatoshps amog traffc vromt carryg capacty th barg capacty of th urba traffc ad urba vromtal capacty. Ad basd o th actual vhcl mata modls of Ja cty, th author adjustd th formula of motor vhcl xhaust msso sourc,th fxd th OPSM strt vally dffuso modl of Cha's bg cts combato wth th practcal stuato of Ja, ad stablshd a w TECC calculato formula basd o th traffc vromtal barg capacty of sgl factor cotamat, fally calculatd Ja's thrshold ad prdctd yars of thrshold, whch would provd rfrc for th govrmt ad rlatd dpartmts to formulat th traffc dvlopmt ad maagmt masurs, ad also would offr a thought for th rsarch of urba motor vhcl dvlopmt scal. Kywords:Th traffc vromtal barg capacty corrcto modl,motor vhcl owrshp thrsholds,ja. INTRODUCTION Wth th rapd dvlopmt of urba coomy, th urbazato lvl ad urba motorzato lvl ar also costatly rasd; Th growth of th urba vhcl owrshp has bcom th vtabl rsult of th cty's coomc dvlopmt. Motor vhcl mts th dmad of urba rsdts smultaously, howvr whch also has profoud mpact o th urba cologcal rsourcs vromt. Accordg to th domstc ad forg rlatd rsarch data that 60% of ar polluto coms from th cty of motor vhcl mssos. So studs about motor vhcl owrshp thrshold udr th rqurmts of urba trasportato vromtal barg capacty ar gttg mor ad mor attto of rlvat scholars. Th fluc of traffc vromt carryg capacty of vhcl owrshp ls affcts of urba traffc barg capacty ad urba vromtal capacty. Th affct of urba traffc capacty of motor vhcl owrshp maly ls affcts of urba traffc barg capacty ad urba vromtal capacty. Th fluc of urba traffc capacty of motor vhcl owrshp maly ls th motorzato dvlopmt scal th cty as a whol ca hrt wth th xstg cty spac scop,th cty trasportato codto ad th srvc lvl of urba traffc, whch s a kd of rsourc costrat; Ad th fluc of urba vromtal capacty of vhcl owrshp rflcts o th cty s tolrac of urba atmosphr ad os polluto brought by th cty motor vhcl, whch s a kd of cologcal vromtal costrat. I ths papr, th urba vromtal capacty rsarch maly focuss o th motor vhcl msso polluto. 2. THE BASIC THEORY OF TRAFFIC ENVIRONMENT CARRYING CAPACITY Th cocpt of Traffc Evromtal barg Capacty ( TECC )[] s put forward o th bass of th barg capacty of th urba traffc ad urba traffc vromt capacty, whch rfrs to th bggst dvlopg scal of trasportato systm th cty's traffc vromt ca wthstad th codto of that th fucto ad structur of th urba traffc vromt systm s th drcto of malgat trasformato udr th spcfc tm, ara ad traffc structur. Rlatoshps btw th thr typ as show th followg:

3 Th Thrtth Wuha Itratoal Cofrc o E-Busss Huma Bhavor ad Socal Impacts o E-Busss MODELS TO QUANTIFY TECC m( TC, TEC ) () Typ: TECC - cty traffc vromt carryg capacty; TC - urba traffc capacty; TEC - cty traffc vromt capacty 3. Quattatv modl of th urba traffc capacty ( TC ). Th barg capacty of th urba traffc s flucd by th rat of urba road ara, motor vhcl travl shar rat, road twork dsty, ad th shar rat of motor vhcl travl tm. Th calculato modl s as follows: TC MEd t r BR (2) Typ: M rfrs to cts bult roads ara (m 2 ); E - rfrs to roadway twork ara rato; d -rfrs to motor vhcl roadway shar; B - rfrs to motor bk ara rato of roadway; R - rfrs to cty motor vhcl avrag car rat; t -rfrs to sgl motor vhcl avrag travl tm (h); r -rfrs to traffc cotrol rducto factor. 3.2 Quattatv modl of urba traffc vromt capacty ( TEC ) Urba traffc vromtal capacty cluds urba ar vromtal capacty ad th urba traffc os vromt capacty. Ths papr maly dscusss urba atmosphrc vromt capacty of trasportato, amly traffc vromt capacty of ar polluto, whch mas th maxmum umbr of cty motor vhcl that th urba cologcal vromt CO NO c j of j atmosphrc pollutat ca b sad by typ: cj X 2 SO cj allowd. Thrfor, th cty's coctratos (3) L N P 00% S H t cj (4) Typ: cj rfrs to th coctrato of j kd ar pollutat of cty atmosphr; rfrs to th cotrbuto rats of th typ motor vhcl xhaust msso for th j kd of atmosphrc pollutat coctrato; L rfrs to th total lgth of urba roads (km); rfrs to th j kd of atmosphrc pollutat comprhsv pollutat msso factor of th typ motor vhcl (g/km); P rfrs to th urba vhcl owrshp proporto of th typ motor vhcl; N rfrs to th total motor vhcl owrshp th cty (a); S rfrs to cty road ara (m2); H t rfrs to cty gas hght (m); Accordg to th motor vhcl xhaust OSPM dffuso modl [2-7] of dffrt cts, th followg typ: c j k Q j f( u, x, z, w ) (5) cj ca b show

4 438 Th Thrtth Wuha Itratoal Cofrc o E-Busss Huma Bhavor ad Socal Impacts o E-Busss Typ: Q j = N R P 3600 (mg/m s-) (6) k rfrs to a factor dpdg o th strt vally dmso; Q j - rfrs to th avrag sourc of th j kd of motor vhcl msso that th urba vromt ca tolrat; R rfrs to th cty's motor vhcl opratoal rat pr yar; I vw of th spcfc traffc stuato of Ja, troducg a adjustmt coffct to rvs Chs bg cts strts motor vhcl xhaust OPSM dffuso modl [] k f( u, x, z, w ) 0.24 /[ w( u s 0.5)] r, cocludg th follow formula : [] k f( u, x, z, w ) 0.24 /[ w( u s (7) 0.5)] r Arragg th abov formulas ad troducg paramtr ctj as follows: could dscr TEC computato formula s TEC R P c tj 0.24 /[ w( u s 0.5)] r 3600 (8) Typ: ctj - rfrs to th urba vromt lmt coctrato of th j kd atmosphrc pollutat (mg/m3); η-rfrs to adjustd factor; w rfrs to OPSM corrcto modl strt vally wdth (m); TECC m( TC, TEC ) MEd t r BR R c tj 0.24 /[ w( u s 0.5)] r TC TEC 3600 TEC TC (9) 4. CALCULATION OF JINAN 4. Calculato of Ja traffc capacty( TC ) Accordg to th Ja statstcal yarbook 202, rlatd paramtrs slcto ar show as follows : () By th d of 202, Ja bult road ara s mllo squar mtrs; (2) Motor vhcl roadway takg-up form of Ja cty road structur s doubl motor vhcl drvways, o-motor vhcl drvways ad hybrd motor vhcls, so th roadway takg-up proporto hr s 0.75; (3) Th Ja road structur arragmt blogs to our coutry gral arragmt form of cty road, ad roadway takg-up ara rato of th motor vhcl also coform to th basc road codtos, thrfor hr ths papr taks 0.6; (4) Th roadway takg-up ara of sgl motor vhcl: Accordg to th DMV statstcs show that 202,

5 Th Thrtth Wuha Itratoal Cofrc o E-Busss Huma Bhavor ad Socal Impacts o E-Busss 439 vhcl avrag spd s 27.4 Km/h off-pak hours Ja. I addto th rlatd studs hav show that [] wh th spd of a motor vhcl s aroud 30 km/h, th vhcl's latral mmum saf dstac s m, th latral dstac btw motor vhcl ad th pavmt s 0.6 m ad th mmum latral saf dstac ovrtakg s.2-.2 m, fally th roadway takg-up ara of sgl motor vhcl ca b calculatd as B 20 (2.5.5) 2 80 m,accordg to that th mmum dstac s.5 m ad th daly road lgth of motor vhcl calculatd by 20 m; (5) Th rat of th workg car: accordg to th Ja daly 202 [8], th avrag rat of th workg car Ja s 82%; (6) Traffc cotrol rducto factor: takg xprc valu of 0.5; (7) Drvg tm of a sgl motor vhcl: accordg to th wghtd avrag calculato of a bchmark modl to calculat ad dtrm t (hr by tax as a bchmark modls):,,,, t t k t k,, (0) Typ: t, - Tax avrag oprato tm; k, - Cty tax traffc volum proporto of motor vhcl traffc; t, - Avrag oprato tm of othr cars; k, - Othr modls of motor vhcl traffc cty motor vhcl trasport volum prctag; Slctg 202 taxs Ja as th calculatg dxs, so k, % 3.58% k,, % 86.42% Accordg to th rsarch, tax avrag oprato tm s about 0 hours, othr modls ar about 3 hours Ja, ad th calculato of sgl motor vhcl drvg tm 202 s as th followg formula: t % % ( h) Tabl. Th rlatd data of TC modl Projct M (m2) E d B R T r Th paramtr valu Puttg th abov data Tabl to th formula, ths papr obtas Ja cty traffc capacty TC TC MEd t r BR mllo Calculato of Ja cty traffc vromt capacty (TEC ) () Ja vhcl modls classfcato ad comprhsv polluto dscharg factor:

6 440 Th Thrtth Wuha Itratoal Cofrc o E-Busss Huma Bhavor ad Socal Impacts o E-Busss Accordg to th prst th stuato of rta Ja automobl, motor vhcl ca b dvdd to havy vhcls, lght vhcl, tax, car ad motorcycl fv typs, spcfc car owrshp stuato ar show tabl 2 blow: Tabl 2. Ja's vhcl owrshp stuato 202 Havy duty Lght vhcl Th car Th tax Th motorcycl total vhcl Owrshp (car) Owrshp (%) rato From tabl, t ca b cocludd that Ja modls of motor vhcls wght paramtr P : P ( 5 P, P 2, P 3, P 4, P ) ( ,.395 0, , ,.2373) Accordg to rlvat rsarch matrals [9] th Ja varous modls of motor vhcl msso factors ar show tabl 3 blow: Tabl 3. Ja comprhsv polluto of dffrt typs of motor vhcl msso factor (g/km) CO CH NOX PM Havy duty vhcl Lght vhcl Th car Th tax Th motorcycl (2) Th dtrmato of sgl factor polluto msso factor Motor vhcl xhaust ar maly CO,CH, NOX ad partculat mattr, th rsarch da of ths artcl s to slct a xhaust pollutats as th sgl factor polluto vromtal capacty costrats. Slctg th sgl factor of pollutats from th followg two aspcts :o th o had, w cosdr that oly partculat mattr ar lstd as o of vromtal valuato factors th atoal vromtal bullt amog th four major pollutats CO, CH, NOX ad partcls th motor vhcl xhaust mssos; O th othr had, usg th statstcal softwar SPSS to aalyss th corrlato of Ja's growth rat of car owrshp ad aual avrag coctrato of thr kds of pollutats NO X SO 2 partculat mattr), ad usg Matlab softwar to gt th lar fttg curv (fgur ) of Ja's growth rat of car owrshp ad aual avrag coctrato of thr kds of pollutats( NO X SO 2 partculat mattr) Through corrlato aalyss ad fttg mag w ca fd that th corrlato of cty's growth rat of car owrshp ad th coctrato varato of NOX s most obvous, so t has hgh rlablty ad accuracy to slct NOX as th sgl factor cotamat th quattatv aalyss of Ja traffc vromt capacty. NOX ad

7 Th Thrtth Wuha Itratoal Cofrc o E-Busss Huma Bhavor ad Socal Impacts o E-Busss 44 Fgur. Lar fttg chart of thr kds of pollutats coctrato rat ad motor vhcl owrshp rat (3) Th dtrmato of sgl factor polluto cotrbuto rat β of motor vhcls Motor vhcl NO X mssos 00% Th amout of urba atmosphr L NO X S H t C P N NOX 00% I addto, accordg to th rcordd data of statstcal yarbook 202 of Ja, th paramtr L s 526 Km ad C NO s Puttg th abov data to th calculato formula of X, calculatg th = 38.78%. (4) Urba vromtal capacty stadards of polluto msso factor X Accordg to th rlvat provsos o NOX NO () th atoal ar qualty stadard (GB ), Ja mplmts th atoal scodary stadard rqurmt, so th rqurd aual dsty of ad CtNOX s 0.05mg/m 3. (5) Th dtrmato of mprovd OSPM modl paramtrs NOX s 0.05 mg/m 3, Ja cty blogs to th warm tmprat zo cottal clmat, aual avrag tmpratur s 3.5 ~ 5.5, th atmosphrc stablty s utral, so th corrcto factor valu s 0.8;Ut strt vally wdth W of Ja cty ca b calculatd accordg to th typ Amog thm: W S L ( m ) S rfrs to Ja bult road ara (m2); L rfrs to th total lgth of Ja bult roads (km); -rfrs to th avrag umbr of las of Ja Sttg modl flgs pot th ctr btw roadway, ths artcl slcts Jg t road as th rsarch targt, th chal spacg tak 00 m, ad th flgs pot x ( 2 00) 4 50.I addto, accordg to th xprc valu calculato strt vally hght s 5 m, ad th dstac z from th flgs pot to th groud s.5 m. Fally accordg to th calculato formula of OSPM modl paramtrs:

8 442 Th Thrtth Wuha Itratoal Cofrc o E-Busss Huma Bhavor ad Socal Impacts o E-Busss 2x X 5.6m W 2 r X Z 3.4 Z 2 2z H Ja blogs to wak wd ara, ad accordg to th mtorologcal codtos of Ja 202 obsrvatos, th wd avrag spd of Ja s u = 2.6 m/s. (3)To solv th modl Accordg to th aformtod calculato formula of urba vromtal capacty of th motor vhcl xhaust pollutat TEC : TEC I cocluso: R R R C P P P c c tnox tj tj NOX 2.098( mllo) TECC k f( u, x, z, w ) 0.24 /[ w( u s 0.5)] 0.2 r 0.24 /[ w( u s 0.5)] m( TC, TEC ) m(208.9, 26.94) 2.089( mllo) r I cocluso, basd o th traffc vromtal barg capacty, Ja motor vhcl's largst forcast s mllo. 4.3 a's forcast Ths artcl fally usg GM (, ) - Markov cha modl to forcast motor vhcl owrshp th xt sx yars of Ja cty. Prdcto rsults ar show tabl 4 blow: Tabl 4. Ja's prdcto rsults Yar Prdcto valu (Thousads) Prdcto corrcto valu (Thousads) Accordg to statstcal yarbook data statstcs of Ja 202, as of th d of 202, Ja motor vhcl owrshp has achvd.388 mllo vhcls, ad accordg to th Ja traffc vromtal carryg capacty thrshold of mllo, thr s also crta dvlopmt spac for motor vhcl dvlopmt scal Ja. I addto, f kpg th growth trd of xstg motor vhcl owrshp, ad cosdrg th forcast rsult basd o GM (, )- Markov cha modl, Ja wll achv th traffc vromtal carryg capacty thrshold 208.

9 Th Thrtth Wuha Itratoal Cofrc o E-Busss Huma Bhavor ad Socal Impacts o E-Busss CONCLUSIONS Ths artcl s basd o th thory of traffc vromtal carryg capacty, ad adjusts th formula of th motor vhcl xhaust msso sourc tsty accordg to th actual stuato of Ja's classfyg modls, also coctg wth th rlatoshp btw motor vhcl msso pollutats ad motor vhcl owrshp to mprov OPSM strt vally dffuso modl, th obtas th calculato formula of th traffc vromtal barg capacty (TECC ). Fally, ths papr calculats th motor vhcl owrshp ad prdcts t, s dvlopg scal th futur, also obtas th yar wh th cty motor vhcls hav rachd th thrshold. I addto, provdg th rfrc for trasportato dvlopmt ad th maagmt stratgs to th govrmt ad rlatd dpartmts, ad also offrg a thought for th rsarch of urba motor vhcl dvlopg scal through th abov aalyss ad calculato. REFERENCES [] Qa Wag. (2009).Urba motor vhcl dvlopmt scal study Basd o th traffc vromtal carryg capacty [D].Bg. Bg Jaotog Uvrsty. [2] Jxa Chg. ( ). Urba vromt traffc capacty modl [J]. Joural of Chag a uvrsty, (24). [3] EPA. Dscrpto of th MOBILE hgh way vhcl msso factor modl [S]. Washgto D. C, US: EPA, 997. [4] Th stat vromtal protcto admstrato suprvso ad maagmt [M]. Bg: chmcal dustry prss, [5] Dpaul F. A. Tracr study of dsprso a urba strt cayo [J]. Atmosphrc Evromt, 985, 9(2): [6] Shara M.A mathmatcal modl for th dsprso of ar polluto s low wd codtos [J].Atmosphrc Evromt, 996, 30(8): [7] Yamar to R. Dvlopmt ad valuato of smpl modls for th flow. Turbulc ad pollutat coctrato flds wth at urba strt cayo [J]. Atmosphrc Evromt, 985, 9(2): [8] Ja cty tax srvc ctr. [9] Lzhu Wag, Qag Su, X qag, Yogqag Yu. ( ).Th dtrmato of motor vhcl msso factors Ja [J]. Joural of Evromtal Protcto Trasportato, (23). [0] ZhL W, JShg Sh. ( ). Basd o th amout of urba motor vhcl UTECC cotrol rsarch [J]. Joural of Cha safty scc, (4). [] Rog Hu. (200).Urba traffc vromt study basd o th atmosphrc vromtal barg capacty.[d]. Wuha.Joural of wuha uvrsty of tchology. [2] Wjua Zhao. (2007). Study about Atmosphr vromt barg capacty of urba road traffc [J].Chgdu. Joural of southwst jaotog uvrsty [3] Ja statstcal yarbook 2008 [4] Ja statstcal yarbook 202