Seasonal forecast from System 4

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Transcription:

Seasonal forecast from System 4 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Outline Overview of System 4 System 4 forecasts for DJF 2015/2016 Plans for System 5

System 4 - Overview

System 4 seasonal forecast model IFS (atmosphere) TL255L91 Cy36r4, 0.7 deg grid for physics (operational in Dec 2010) Full stratosphere, enhanced stratospheric physics Singular vectors from EPS system to perturb atmosphere initial conditions Ocean currents coupled to atmosphere boundary layer calculations NEMO (ocean) Global ocean model, 1x1 resolution, 0.3 meridional near equator NEMOVAR (3D-Var) analyses, newly developed. Coupling Fully coupled, no flux adjustments Sea-ice based on sampling previous five years

System 4 configuration Real time forecasts: 51 member ensemble forecast to 7 months SST and atmos. perturbations added to each member 15 member ensemble forecast to 13 months Designed to give an outlook for ENSO Only once per quarter (Feb, May, Aug and Nov starts) Back integrations from 1981-2010 (30 years) 15 member ensemble every month 15 members extended to 13 months once per quarter

Forecasts for DJF 2016/2017

ECMWF forecast: DJF sst ACC skill (1981-2010) Ensemble mean

ECMWF forecast: ENSO

North-Atlantic Oscillation November Forecast PDF Climatology (hindcasts) Analysis (hindcast period)

ECMWF forecast: DJF mslp Tercile probabilities ACC skill (1981-2010) Ensemble Mean anomaly

Evolution of mslp after winter MSLP in JFM MSLP in DJF

ECMWF forecast: DJF z500 Ensemble Mean anomaly Reliability (1981-2010) < lower tercile > upper tercile ACC skill (1981-2010) Tercile summary

ECMWF forecast: DJF precip Bias (1981-2010) ACC (1981-2010) Tercile probabilities

ECMWF forecast: DJF 2mT Ensemble mean anomaly Reliability (1981-2010) < lower tercile > upper tercile ACC skill (1981-2010) Tercile probabilities

ECMWF forecast: DJF T850hPa Tercile probabilities Ensemble mean anomaly

Conclusions for DJF 2016/2017 Icelandic high with low pressure over Azores (AO - & NAO-) ==> weakened polar vortex ==> more flow exchanges between Arctic and Europe Weaker westerlies traversing the North-Atlantic, bringing Jetstream southward to give higher storm incidence over South-Europe More than normal precip in Mediterranean region Slight warm anomaly over northern Europe and south of Caucasus

System 5 Plans and requests

Plans for System 5 Higher atmospheric horizontal resolution: TCO639 L91 Increased hindcast ensemble size to 25 0.25 Z75 Ocean (Nemo 3.4.1) Improvements in atmosphere and land surface: LIM2 sea-ice model New ozone scheme (Monge-Sanz 2011 doi: 10.5194/acp-11-1227-2011) Accuracy of ENSO similar, but will have better QBO Improved land surface initialisation: LAI, soil moisture, lakes, etc. Early 2017

Adapting S5 delivery Do you need cloud cover? Prognostic variable in ECMWF cloud scheme Currently not archived, but we could Do you need other cloud data? What would you prioritize? Horizontal resolution Vertical resolution Temporal resolution How many ensemble members do you use? If you downscale and would like to make a request about above topics, please leave your email addresses so we can contact you in the coming months

Adapting C3S delivery Questions about workflow How will you download C3S forecasts? What format do you prefer you data: grib, netcdf, csv? Are operationally disseminated plots useful? Any other requests are welcome

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