Mountain pine beetle range expansion: The impact of phenology and survival Kathy Bleiker and Greg Smith Canadian Forest Service
What limits MPB range? Historic distribution of infestations up to 1970 Limits N & E : -40C & DD Poor areas inside range; good areas outside (n. AB) Safranyik et. al. 1974, 2010
Has MPB expanded its range?
Area (ha 10 6 ) 5 4 3 2 1 5 4 3 2 1 0 Why? Huge source population Distribution and abundance of susceptible hosts 17% 49% 1910 1970 1930 26% 1990 53% Forest age (years 1950 35% Reconstructed pine forests based on past disturbances (fire, harvesting, beetles) Trees most susceptible to MPB between 80 and 160 years old Area of susceptible trees at outbreak start 3 times greater than 1910 Taylor and Carroll 2004 Fires 1880s
Why? Climate Change: Increase in extremely suitable habitat Very low Low Moderate High Extreme Carroll et al. 2006
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Will MPB spread? Is pine in the boreal forest at risk? Climate/weather Distribution and abundance of susceptible hosts Dispersal abilities Interactions with other species
Carroll et al. 2006
Cumulative % mortality Focus on winter mortality/survival Winter is tough even in the historic range 100 98 80 79 60 58 40 Winter mortality 20 17 0 0 eggs larvae pre-winter larvae post winter mature larvae new adults Life Stage Safranyik et al.
Lethal (cold) temperature varies by life stage - eggs: -18ºC - pupae: -23/34ºC - 1 st instars: -23/29ºC - 2 nd instars: -23/34ºC - 3 rd & 4 th instars: -29/40ºC (Reid and Gates 1970; Logan et al. 1995) Development over the summer determines the stage that enters the winter Effect of phenology Lethal temps. range and work to do on it
Objectives i) Quantify variation in MPB development and survival as it relates to temperature (fine resolution); ii) iii) How will climate and MPB phenology interact in the new habitat? and affect population success? Examine MPB reproductive success and attack characteristics (T & GV); and Provide empirical data necessary to parameterize MPB model for AB (Cooke and Régnière). Yr 1 Phenology up and running; Yr 2 added mortality ( R) and (ii)
Research sites established in 2010 Ambient only FSJ gone in 2011 TR Nothing central
Elevation (m) West of Rocky Mtns. East of Rocky Mtns. 2000 1800 Princeton Smithers Fox Creek Grande Prairie Fort St. John 1600 1400 1200 1000 Terrace 800 600 400 200 0 Actual elevation Elevation adjusted for latitude (120m for +1ºN, Hopkins)
Monitored dev., estimate peak flight in each region Identify (really) new attacks
Insert temperature probes
Sample insect development, attack characteristics, reproductive success
2010 2011 delayed 3-4 wks everywhere, AB still ahead
2010 Early-attack 2010: Extended attack times 2011: One peak (late) 2010 Late-attack
E.g., Winter 2010/2011 - Musreau Lake (south of Grande Prairie) 30 20 Nov.1/10 Mar.1/11 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 Oct. 1 Dec. 1 Feb. 1 Apr. 1 June 1
E.g., Winter 2010/2011 - Smithers (nw BC) 30 20 Nov.1/10 Mar.1/11 10 0-10 -20-30 Oct. 1 Dec. 1 Feb. 1 Apr. 1 June 1
ºC E.g., Summer 2011 - Musreau Lake (south of Grande Prairie) 25 20 15 10 5 June 4/11 June 14/11 June 24/11 July 7/11 July 14/11 July 24/11 Aug. 3/11 Aug. 13/11
While we re on the topic of delayed emergence
. G P ( T e d d y L n ). G P ( M u s r e a u L k ). F C ( S m o k e L k ). F C ( E a g l e T o w e r ). F S J ( L o w e r W h i p ). F S J ( U p p e r W h i p ). P R 5. P R 6. P R 7. S M 3 ( C o p p e r S ) Emergence trap data (Field) Mean pronotal width (mm) 2.1 2 Grande Prairie Fox Creek Fort St. John Smithers Princeton Terrace 1.9 M e a n ( P r o n o t a l w i d t h ( m m ) ) 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 Rel. size-fecundity/survival Confounding factors 1. G P ( G r a n d e P r a i r i e ). G P ( H w y 4 0 ). F C ( H w y 9 4 7 ). F S J ( H a l f w a y ). S M 2 ( M c D o n n e l l L k ). T R ( S a n d u r ) l a t s ). T R ( J a c k P i n e F l i v e r ) T R ( B i g O
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 G P ( G r a n d e P r a i r i e ) G P ( T e d d y L n ) G P ( M u s r e a u L k ) G P ( H w y 4 0 ) F C ( S m o k e L k ) F C ( H w y 9 4 7 ). F C ( E a g l e T o w e r ). F S J ( L o w e r W h i p ) F S J ( U p p e r W h i p ). F S J ( H a l f w a y ). P R 5 P R 6. P R 7. S M 3 ( C o p p e r S ). S M 2 ( M c D o n n e l l L k ) T R ( S a n d u r ). T R ( J a c k P i n e F l a t s ) T R ( B i g O l i v e r ) Ratio M:F (lower nos. = more F) Grande Prairie Fox Creek Fort St. John Smithers Princeton 0.5 R a t i o M. F 0.4 0.3 0.2 Terrace 0.1 0 Stressful times, invest in more F
G P ( G r a n d e P r a i r i e ) G P ( T e d d y L n ) G P ( M u s r e a u L k ) G P ( H w y 4 0 ) F C ( S m o k e L k ) F C ( H w y 9 4 7 ) F C ( E a g l e T o w e r ) F S J ( L o w e r W h i p ) F S J ( U p p e r W h i p ) F S J ( H a l f w a y ) P R 5 P R 6 P R 7 S M 3 ( C o p p e r S ) S M 2 ( M c D o n n e l l L k ) T R ( S a n d u r ) T R ( J a c k P i n e F l a t s ) T R ( B i g O l i v e r ) Mean nos. of beetles per emergence trap Mean nos. of beetles per emergence trap 120 100 Fort St. John 80 60 Grande Prairie 40 20 Fox Creek Princeton (s. BC) Smithers & Terrace (nw BC) 0 Missing trap numbers too low Low numbers actually lower Need to do actual densities Sites
Future research? Overwintering survival Cold tolerance e.g., parameters around cold acclimation; population differences; trade offs; genetics Impact of extreme events
L. Safranyik Acknowledgements Students: V. Francis, C. Kay, A. Kletchko, R. Heron, E. Braithwaite, L. Ward CFS-PFC: V. Waring, D. Lejour, J. Vallentgoed, G. Dalrymple, M. Noseworthy, K. Pellow, N. Humphreys, K. Hogg, J. Simpson, N. Condor, G. Thandi CFS-NFC: B. Cooke, J. Weber, B. Tomm BC MFR: K. White, E. Havard, B., Borrett, S. Haight, A. Benterud AB SRD: A. Hundsdoerfer Companies: Weyerhauser, Blue Ridge, and Western Millar Forest Products Funding in yrs 1 and 2 provided by: Foothills Research Institute, AB SRD, SK MoE, MB CON, OMNR, SERG-I, Forest Protection Limited, NRCan
South of Tumbler Ridge, BC (east of the Continental Divide) May 2007 Faders Entire stand attacked in 2006 (spruce)