University of Groningen Interregional migration in Indonesia Wajdi, Nashrul IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below. Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Publication date: 2017 Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database Citation for published version (APA): Wajdi, N. (2017). Interregional migration in Indonesia: Macro, micro, and agent-based modelling approaches [Groningen]: University of Groningen Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): http://www.rug.nl/research/portal. For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum. Download date: 17-10-2018
Interregional Migration in Indonesia Macro, micro, and agent-based modelling approaches Nashrul Wajdi
The research presented in this dissertation was conducted in the Department of Demography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences at the University of Groningen, and funded by the NFP/NUFFIC scholarship grant number: NFP PhD CF 8776. ISBN 978-94-034-0087-7 ISBN (E-publication) 978-94-034-0086-0 Dutch translation for summary Rik Huizinga, r.p.huizinga@rug.nl English language editing Chapters 1, 5, and 6: Miriam Hils-Cosgrove, miriamhils@gmail.com Chapter 2: Wim C.J. Tommassen, w.c.j.tommassen@rug.nl Cover design and illustrations Eddy Surahman, eddy1806@gmail.com Interior page layout Nashrul Wajdi Print Zalsman Groningen B.V., Groningen Nashrul Wajdi, 2017 Email: nashrul@bps.go.id and acul.wajdi@yahoo.com All rights reserved. Save exceptions stated by the law, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system of any nature, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, included a complete or partial transcription, without the prior written permission of the author.
Interregional Migration in Indonesia Macro, micro, and agent-based modelling approaches PhD thesis to obtain the degree of PhD at the University of Groningen on the authority of the Rector Magnificus Prof. E. Sterken and in accordance with the decision by the College of Deans. This thesis will be defended in public on Thursday 19 October 2017 at 16.15 hours by Nashrul Wajdi born on 13 December 1979 in Lombok Timur, Indonesia
Supervisors Prof. dr. C.H. Mulder Prof. dr. L.J.G. van Wissen Co-supervisor Prof. S. Moertiningsih Adioetomo, SE, MA, PhD Assessment Committee Prof.dr. R.L. Holzhacker Prof. dr. P. Hooimeijer Prof. Ir. B. Hari Wibisono, MUP, MSc, PhD
Fabi-ayyi ala-i rabbikumatukadzhibaan Then which of the Blessings of your Lord will you both deny? Surah Ar-Rahman [55:78] To family and friends
Overview of the chapters The four empirical chapters included in this PhD dissertation are slightly different versions of the following publications and manuscripts: Chapter 2 Wajdi, N., van Wissen, L.J.G., & Mulder, C.H. (2015). Interregional Migration Flows in Indonesia. Sojourn: Journal of Social Issues in Southeast Asia, 30 (2): 371-422. Chapter 3 Wajdi, N., Adioetomo, S.M., & Mulder, C.H. (published online before print, 2017). Gravity models of interregional migration in Indonesia. BIES: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2017.1298719. Chapter 4 Wajdi, N., Mulder, C.H., & Adioetomo, S.M. (2017). Inter-regional migration in Indonesia: A micro approach. Journal of Population Research, 34(3): 253-277. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-017-9191-6. Chapter 5 Wajdi, N., & van Wissen, L.J.G. (2017). An agent-based model of interregional migration in Indonesia. A preliminary version of this chapter was presented at Dutch Demography Day 2016, Utrecht, The Netherlands. The latest version of this chapter was presented at the 6 th Indonesian Regional Science Association (IRSA) International Institute annual conference on 17-18 July 2017 in Manado, North Sulawesi, Indonesia. vii
Table of contents Overview of the chapters Table of contents vii List of tables x List of figures xi vii Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Background 2 1.2. Previous research 4 1.3. Scope of the study 10 Chapter 2. Interregional Migration Flows in Indonesia 23 2.1. Introduction 25 2.2. Literature review 25 2.3. Data and methodology 30 2.4. Results 33 2.5. Conclusion 48 Chapter 3. Gravity Models of Interregional Migration in Indonesia 55 3.1. Introduction 57 3.2. Theoretical background 58 3.3. Data and method 65 3.4. Results 70 3.5. Conclusion and discussion 76 Chapter 4. Interregional Migration in Indonesia: A Micro Approach 83 4.1. Introduction 85 4.2. Theoretical background 86 4.3. Data, variables, and method 90 4.4. Results 94 4.5. Conclusion and discussion 105 Chapter 5. Interregional Migration in Indonesia: An Agent-based Modelling Approach 111 5.1. Introduction 113 5.2. Model description and the scenarios 115 5.3. Implementation and results 126 5.4. Conclusion 150 5.5. Discussion and possible model extensions 151 viii
Chapter 6. Conclusion and Discussion 157 6.1. Introduction 158 6.2. Summary of the findings 159 6.3. Discussion of the findings 163 6.4. Discussion on data, methods, and opportunities for future research 168 6.5. Policy implications 170 Nederlandse samenvatting 176 Ringkasan dalam Bahasa Indonesia 178 Appendices 181 Acknowledgments 251 ix
List of tables TABLE 1.1. Summary information on the division of Indonesia into 13 regions 14 TABLE 2.1. Summary of population redistribution phases, their characteristics and indicators 29 TABLE 2.2. The odds, odds ratios and ratios of odds ratios of migrant status, origin and time 34 TABLE 2.3. Regression coefficient of saturated multinomial logit of Origin and Destination ([O][D]), 2005-2010 40 TABLE 2.4. Regression coefficient of saturated multinomial logit of Origin, Destination and Time ([O][D][T=1]), 2000-2005 41 TABLE 2.5. Regression coefficient of saturated multinomial logit of Origin, Destination and Time ([O][D][T=2]), 2005-2010 42 TABLE 2.6. Total Flows Gini Index Values for 1995-2000, 2000-2005 and 2005-2010 Inter-regional Migration in Indonesia 45 TABLE 3.1. Summary of the data source for explanatory variables 66 TABLE 3.2. Summary of explanatory variables expected results 68 TABLE 3.3. Descriptive statistics of the variables 71 TABLE 3.4. Poisson regression results for basic and modified gravity models 72 TABLE 4.1. Definition of variables 93 TABLE 4.2. Multinomial logit regression of the likelihood of migrating from Jakarta to: (i) another metro area within commuting distance, (ii) another metro area, and (iii) a non-metro area (odds ratios) 98 TABLE 4.3. Multinomial logit regression of the likelihood of migrating from a metro area to: (i) Jakarta, (ii) another metro area, and (iii) a nonmetro area (odds ratios) 100 TABLE 4.4. Multinomial logit regression of the likelihood of migrating from a non-metro area to: (i) Jakarta, (ii) another metro area, and (iii) a non-metro area (odds ratios) 102 TABLE 5.1. Linear regression results for out-migration rate, 1980-2010 120 TABLE 5.2. Initialisation for population, initial vs. real data 127 TABLE 5.3. Typology of the focus of interregional in- and out-migration fields based on the in- and out- migration indices 145 x
List of Figures FIGURE 1.1. Map of Indonesia, showing the regions used in analysis, with an inset showing a map of Mebidangro 16 FIGURE 1.2. Map of Java showing the regions used in the analysis 16 FIGURE 2.1. Inter-regional migration flows in Indonesia 1995-2000 35 FIGURE 2.2. Inter-regional migration flows in Indonesia 2000-2005 35 FIGURE 2.3. Inter-regional migration flows in Indonesia 2005-2010 36 FIGURE 2.4. Migration Field Gini Index Values, 1995-2000, 2000-2005 and 2005-2010 46 FIGURE 4.1. Standardised percentage of people migrating from Jakarta by age group 95 FIGURE 4.2. Standardised percentage of people migrating from other metros by age group 95 FIGURE 4.3. Standardised percentage of people migrating from nonmetros by age group 96 FIGURE 5.1. Diagram for the agent-based model for interregional migration in Indonesia 116 FIGURE 5.2. Population density and the out-migration rate in Indonesia, 1980-2010 119 FIGURE 5.3. Population density and in-migration rates in Indonesia, 1980-2010 122 FIGURE 5.4. Different thresholds for various scenarios 125 FIGURE 5.5. Observed out-migration rate vs simulated out-migration rate for each region in Indonesia in 2010 128 FIGURE 5.6. Observed in-migration rate vs simulated in-migration rate for each region in Indonesia in 2010 129 FIGURE 5.7. Observed migration flows (left), simulated migration flows (right) 130 FIGURE 5.8.1. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Jakarta 131 FIGURE 5.8.2. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Bodetabek 131 FIGURE 5.8.3. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Bandung Raya 132 FIGURE 5.8.4. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of West Java and Banten 132 xi
FIGURE 5.8.5. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Kedungsepur 132 FIGURE 5.8.6. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of Central Java and Yogyakarta 132 FIGURE 5.8.7. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Gerbangkertosusila 133 FIGURE 5.8.8. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of East Java 133 FIGURE 5.8.9. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Mebidangro 133 FIGURE 5.8.10. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of Sumatera 133 FIGURE 5.8.11. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Kalimantan 134 FIGURE 5.8.12. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Sulawesi 134 FIGURE 5.8.13. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of Indonesia 134 FIGURE 5.9. Map of Indonesia (above) and map of Java (below) showing areas with different groups based on the observed patterns of net migration rate 135 FIGURE 5.10.1. The simulated out-migration rate from 2010-2035 for the baseline scenario BS 137 FIGURE 5.10.2. The simulated out-migration rate from 2010-2035 for scenario 1 Sc1 138 FIGURES 5.10.3. FIGURE 5.11. FIGURE 5.12. FIGURE 5.13. The simulated out-migration rate from 2010-2035 for scenario 2 Sc2 139 The intercepts of saturated multinomial logit of regions in Indonesia by Destination ([O][D]), 2025-2030 141 The raw coefficients for the out-migration component flow index (left), the raw coefficients for the in-migration component flows index (middle), and the raw coefficients for the total flow index (right) for the 2010 2035 144 Map of Indonesia (above) and map of Java (below) showing regions based on the typology in the migration system in 2010 146 xii
FIGURE 5.14. FIGURE 5.15. Map of Indonesia (above) and map of Java (below) showing regions based on the typology in the migration system in2035 147 Map of Indonesia (above) with a map of Java (below) showing the percentage differences of population growth between the official population projection and the baseline scenario of the simulation in the 2010-2035 period 149 xiii
[This page is intentionally left blank]