Ground Motion Prediction Equation Hazard Sensitivity Results for Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Site (PVNGS) M.Walling SWUS GMC Workshop 3 March 11, 2013
Hazard ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) sensitivity results Base Case Sensitivity Tests GMPE s Sigma Mixture Model Tau, Single Station Sigma (PhiSS), Single Station Path (PhiSP) Local Source Effects 0 200 km Distant Source Effects 200 400 km Results PGA AFE 10-4 and 10-6 0.5 Hz AFE 10-4 and 10-6
Base Case Faults Over 30 faults sources Main fault contributor is Cerro Prieto (*) * Spelling corrected after Workshop #3
Base Case Background Sources 11 Background Zones Uniform rate of earthquakes Host source is the main background zone contributor
Base Case Ground Motion Prediction Equations Ground Motion Prediction Equations 5 NGA (2008) GMPEs Abrahamson and Silva Boore and Atkinson Campbell and Bozorgnia Chiou and Youngs Idriss Equally weighted with Epistemic Uncertainty Vs30m = 760 m/sec
GMPE Sensitivity Local source effects Normal Fault Mechanism GMPE s 5 NGA-W1&2, 2013AK, 2013BN (*) Distant source effects GMPE s 5 NGA-W1&2, 2006ZH, 2006ZH Modified for M>7.1 * Corrected after Workshop #3
Sensitivity to GMPE PGA & 0.5 Hz at AFE 1E-4 Distant Local
Sensitivity to GMPE PGA & 0.5 Hz at AFE 1E-6 Distant Local
Sensitivity to Sigma Mixture Model Combination of two normal distributions Sigma= 0.58 and 0.72 Effect is fat tail ~ 0.65 Local source effects sensitivity Results for PGA, 0.5 Hz 1E-4 Distant source effects sensitivity Results for PGA, 0.5Hz 1E-4
Tornado Plot 1E-4 Sigma Mixture Mixture of two normal distributions with sigma = 0.58 and 0.72 Distant Local
Sensitivity to Tau Model Tau Model Linda to discuss Wednesday Local source effects sensitivity Results for PGA 1E-4 Distant source effects sensitivity Results for 0.5Hz 1E-4, 1E-6
Tornado Plot 1E-4 Tau Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in Tau Model Local
Tornado Plot 1E-4 Tau Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in Tau Model Distant
Tornado Plot 1E-6 Tau Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in Tau Model Distant
Sensitivity to Single Station Sigma Model PhiSS Linda to discuss Wednesday Local source effects sensitivity Results for PGA 1E-4, 1E-6 Distant source effects sensitivity Results for 0.5Hz 1E-4, 1E-6
Local Source Sensitivity 1E-4 PhiSS Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSS Model Local
Local Source Sensitivity 1E-6 PhiSS Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSS Model Local
Distant Source Sensitivity 1E-4 PhiSS Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSS Model Distant
Distant Source Sensitivity 1E-6 PhiSS Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSS Model Distant
Sensitivity to Path effects Sigma Single Station Path (PhiSSP) Linda to discuss Wednesday North Path South Path Results at 0.5 Hz 1E-4 Hazard Epistemic Uncertainty Upper PhiSSP Median PhiSSP Lower PhiSSP
Tornado Plot 1E-4 PhiSP Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSP Model Distant
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