CPPA Overview (Climate Prediction Program for the Americas) Welcome you to the 2008 PIs meeting! Thanks to Jill Reisdorf Jin Huang and Annarita Mariotti NOAA Climate Program Office Silver Spring, MD Sept. 29th, 2008
Outline CPPA overview Objectives, research components, strategies, Science Panel, Science Plan Programmatic summary funded projects, publications, budget Major accomplishments Topics for discussion sessions
NOAA Climate Goal Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society s Ability to Plan and Respond OUTCOMES A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA s climate products into their plans and decisions CPPA PROGRAMS PROGRAMS Observations and Monitoring Climate Research and Modeling Climate Services Development
Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA) Mission: Improve operational intraseasonal to interannual hydroclimatic predictions for the Americas Science Objectives: Quantify the sources and limits of predictability of climate variations on intra-seasonal to interannual time scale Improve predictive understanding and model simulations of ocean, atmosphere and land-surface processes, including the ability to quantify uncertainty Advance NOAA s operational climate forecasts, monitoring, and analysis systems by transferring research to operation Develop climate-based hydrologic forecasting capabilities for decision support and water resource applications Programmatic Linkage: - CPPA contributes to CLIVAR and GEWEX - CPPA contributes to Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
CPPA Research Components Land-Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction (e.g, monsoons, diurnal cycle, drought, extreme events) Land-Atmosphere Interaction (e.g, soil moisture, snow, vegetation, orography) Predictability & Prediction Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction (e.g, MJO, ENSO, IAS, ITCZ/cold tongue, air-sea fluxes) Operational Climate Prediction, Observations and Analysis Climate-based Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Resource Applications
CPPA Strategies to Improve Intra-Seasonal to Interannual Climate Predictions and Applications - Predictability and Process Studies - Model Improvement - Application Development - Research Operations
CPPA Science Panel Current Membership (2006-08) Ruby Leung (Chair) Hugo Berbery Martyn Clark David Enfield Chris Fairall Dave Gutzler Wayne Higgins Paul Houser Dick Johnson John Roads Siegfried Schubert Eric Wood Shang-Ping Xie Starting from 2009, - Five existing members (in red) will be rotated out. - New members will be added Chris Bretherton Dave Gochis Ben Kirtman Eric Maloney Dennis Lettenmaier DRAFT CPPA Science Plan - Prepared by CPPA Science Panel & Core Project PIs - A living document and comments are welcome - Available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/cppa/
Programmatic Summary Budget level: ~9.15M/year during last 3 years Funding 70 ongoing projects in FY08 90 peer-reviewed articles published by CPPA PIs in 2008 Expected new projects in FY09: 15 ( ~$2M) Average proposal success rate: 1/3 to 1/4 How do we set research priorities Advice from CPPA Science Panel and science communities (GEWEX, CLIVAR,etc) and comments from CPPA PIs NOAA Climate Mission and NOAA operational needs Coordination with CCSP interagency working groups Balance with research components
CPPA FY08 Budget: $9.15 M Research Projects $8,420K Air-Sea Interaction $ 2285 k Grant (14 projects) Land-Atmosphere Interaction $ 2153 k Grant $1823 k (19 projects) Core Project (NCEP) $ 530 k Predictability of Climate Phenomena $ 2027 k Monsoons $ 912 k (11 projects) Drought $1115 k (13 projects) Multi-RCM project $836k Hydrologic Forecasts $ 1119 k Grant $739 k ( 7 projects) Core Project (OHD) $380 k Data Management $ 430 K Program Support $ 300 K
CPPA Major Activities & Accomplishments Predictability of Climate Phenomena Extremes MJO Variability Monsoons Diurnal mechanism along the SMO (Nesbitt and Gochis) Impact of intraseasonal variability on the formation of tropical Atlantic Storms (P. Webster) Composite of unfiltered wind vectors and precipitation for the easterly and westerly MJO phases (Maloney) Droughts Tropical influences on drought North America (Huang and Seager)
CPPA Major Activities & Accomplishments Process Studies: Air-Sea Interaction EPIC data are used for analyzing stratocumulus cloud and ITCZ convection in climate models (C. Bretherton) VOCALS Climate Impacts of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool on the Americas (C-Z Wang) VOCALS Science Questions: - Why is SE Tropical Pacific so cold & cloudy? - Why can t global models get this right? - What are roles of topography, ocean eddies & upwelling, natural and anthro. aerosol? -CPPA supports - VOCALS Field Experiment in Oct-Nov,2008 - VOCALS modeling projects in NCEP and GFDL
CPPA Major Activities & Accomplishments Process Studies (Land-Atmosphere Interaction) A snow evolution modeling system (SnowModel) and A Simple Data Assimilation System (SnowAssim) (Liston and L. Lu) GLACE-2: Quantifying the Effects of Land Moisture Initialization on Precipitation Forecasts (R. Koster) Increase in forecast skill associated with land initialization for monthly precipitation (left) and monthly air temperature (right), as determined from a pilot experiment (the prototype for GLACE-2) Impact of Vegetation and Soil Moisture Feedback on Precipitation (after G. Wang)
CPPA Major Activities & Accomplishments Model Development CFS Errors Improving Noah Land Model - Diagnoses of tropical biases in CGCMs (Mechoso and H. Pan) - - Using VOCALS data to develop and evaluate stratiform cloud parameterizations (L. Donner) Improvements in snow modelling include: - snow simulations and the diurnal cycle of the skin temperature of snow, and melting processes. - runoff and the simulation of soil moisture in winter time. (Z-L Yang, K. Mitchell)
CPPA Major Activities & Accomplishments Improving Climate Forecasting Memory of John Roads (1950-2008) Test impacts of different land models and land initial land states on CFS reforecasts (K. Mitchell) 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 OSU/GR2 Noah/GR2 Noah/GLDAS Noah/GLDAS Climo Multi-RCM Ensemble Downscaling (MRED) of multi-gcm Seasonal Forecasts (Arritt & others): -Objective: to demonstrate the usefulness of multi-rcm downscaling of global seasonal forecasts - Central archive accessible for communities CONUS-average Anomaly Correlation: CFS JJA ensemble mean precipitation forecasts Investigating the role of radiation and winds in CFS biases (P. Xie and W. Wang)
CPPA Major Activities & Accomplishments Improving Hydrologic Forecasting - Development of experimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS) at NWS/OHD (Restrepo) - Implemented various components at RFCs EPP User Interface Ens. Pre- Processor Atmospheric forcing data Flow Data OFS IFP Ens. Streamflow Prediction System HMOS Ensemble Processor MODs Raw flow ens. Pp ed flow ens. Ens. User Interface EPP3 ESP2 EnsPost EPG Hydrometeorol. ensembles XEFS Graphical User Interface Ens. Post- Proc. Web Interface Product Generation Subsystem Ensemble /prob. products Hydrologic Ensemble Hindcaster Ensemble Verification System EVS Ensemble verification products Other funded activities: - Snow data assimilations (Clark and Slator; P. Houser) - Participate Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP-2) - Multi-model data integration and assimilation system fpr NWSRFS ensemble hydrologic predictions (Toll) - Development a coupled distributed model with WRF for large watersheds (Bras) - Regional hydrologic forecasting model in California (Sorooshian)
CPPA Major Activities & Accomplishments Applications of Climate Predictions Experimental Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction System (Lettenmaier & Wood)) Prototype Fire Danger Forecast System (N. Zeng) Contributing to Drought Monitoring and Prediction Products (Mitchell, K. Mo, B. Cosgrove)
CPPA Major Activities & Accomplishments Transitioning Research to Operations Contributions to NOAA Operations: -Developed and Implemented of the land component in NCEP next generations CFS - Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) - Noah Land Model - Reducing tropical biases in CFS - Improving hydrologic forecasting in NWS/OHD and RFCs - Global Monsoon Monitor at CPC - Drought monitoring and prediction products (contributing to NIDIS) Transitioning Mechanisms K. Mitchell. - Core Projects (NCEP/EMC, OHD&RFCs) - conduct operation-related research and implementation - transfer research results from CPPA PIs to NWS operations - CPPA Synthesis Teams & Joint university-ncep competitive projects - NOAA Climate Test Bed
Topics for Discussion Sessions Topics: 1) gaps of knowledge 2) impact of past field experiments 3) potential new emerging priorities 4) paths to improved climate and hydrologic operations Questions: - Have we reached the plateau of seasonal-interannual prediction? - How to significantly improve ISI predictions? - How to measure progress and success? - How to evaluate readiness of research results for transition to operations? - How to incorporate operational needs into research priorities?